M3 P+ Depreciation

[MrBadger]

Back in 2017, I used my 2015 daily actual generation and export figures to calculate a ballpark annual saving if I went with, iirc at that time Powerwall 1. It came to approx £120/year. So, assuming £7.5k figure for kit and install, that gives a payback period of over 60 years. An EV would change things, but even adding in an impossible (doesn't take into account losses or charge limits and assumes all stored electricity purchased at 4p/kWh) best case, I cannot see a saving of more than £450/year, so payback period of 16 years, more realistically 20 years plus, which is longer than I would expect its lifespan and certainly much longer than its warranty. More savings should be able to be made in waiting for annual PW cost reductions, but currently they are rising, which can surely only be a blip considering the price reductions most other similar units are experiencing.

 

[gangzoom]

Well am paying a grand total of £400 for the PowerWall, install should be as soon as Western Power gives the OK

 

[MrBadger]

So it should pay for itself

 

[Cantonalegod]

They will increase the prices on the ID car above any estimated price and blame the Euro rate even if it doesn't change form todays rate when eventually it does come

Lottery numbers please!

 

[Rooster6655]

Lottery numbers please!

Sorry I can only predict news based on previous events from ICE manufacturers regarding EVs and their timelines and prices

 

[Cantonalegod]

Sorry I can only predict news based on previous events from ICE manufacturers regarding EVs and their timelines and prices

It's lucky that everything at Tesla always happens on schedule then.

 

[Rooster6655]

It's lucky that everything at Tesla always happens on schedule then.

It’s going to be hard for VW to be price competitive with their dealership discount model and always offering discounts.

Do you get discount for working at VW if you buy the ID?

 

[nickname_esco]

In my humble opinion after 3 years with lets say 30k miles on it a P3D should go for £30,000

 

[banned-66611]

In my humble opinion after 3 years with lets say 30k miles on it a P3D should go for £30,000

I wouldn't bank on it.

 

[Rooster6655]

I wouldn't bank on it.

In 3 years with an average of 10k per year will mean it still has a 1 year warranty.

So you get a 3.2 sec 0-60 for a 3 year old car and a 1 year warranty. Remember a 1 year warranty is usually very generous in the used car world. In 3 years I can see a used P3 being the best used car deal available IF you can find one!

 

[banned-66611]

In 3 years with an average of 10k per year will mean it still has a 1 year warranty.

So you get a 3.2 sec 0-60 for a 3 year old car and a 1 year warranty. Remember a 1 year warranty is usually very generous in the used car world. In 3 years I can see a used P3 being the best used car deal available IF you can find one!

Well Tesla estimates the residual on a P3 after 4 years at £23,762 on the site right now, assuming 10k miles/year. New it's £50k, so that's 52.5% depreciation. Of course it's not linear with time, you lose more in the first couple of years. So £30k at 3 years is extremely unlikely, more likely closer to £26k if Tesla's estimate is accurate.

That's a big if. There will be lots of P3s coming off finance around then, lots of competing EVs in three years time. With the amount of downward pressure on EV prices and falling battery costs I really doubt that £26k is realistic. You might get lucky and find some boy racer who cares about the 3.2 second 0-60, but that really narrows your market. Plus being a Performance model means people will assume it has been thrashed, otherwise why would you have paid extra for it?

 

[Rooster6655]

Well Tesla estimates the residual on a P3 after 4 years at £23,762 on the site right now, assuming 10k miles/year. New it's £50k, so that's 52.5% depreciation. Of course it's not linear with time, you lose more in the first couple of years. So £30k at 3 years is extremely unlikely, more likely closer to £26k if Tesla's estimate is accurate.

Yes the first 2 years I would suspect a higher rate of depreciation, however I do expect this to slow down considerably. I don't know about the financing and residual values as leasing or PCP isn't something that I have looked into.

That's a big if. There will be lots of P3s coming off finance around then, lots of competing EVs in three years time. With the amount of downward pressure on EV prices and falling battery costs I really doubt that £26k is realistic. You might get lucky and find some boy racer who cares about the 3.2 second 0-60, but that really narrows your market. Plus being a Performance model means people will assume it has been thrashed, otherwise why would you have paid extra for it?

Don't see the competition for long range EVs with performance of the Model 3 being available in mass in the UK anytime soon for £30k and under, you also need to consider that the market of a vehicle around the £30k mark is going to be even bigger. The EV demand other the next few years is likely going to exceed the production capabilities so I would not expect falling battery costs to be a huge factor.

I also think you will find that the 0-60 timing is very popular outside the one off boy racer types and I am sure other will agree...

Thats my bet placed so I will come back in 3 years to see the result!

 

[Peteski]

PCP balloon payments are no longer representative of actual residuals since HMRC made it crystal clear to manufacturers that there must be reasonable equity at the end of PCP terms. I think it had something to do with Merc taking the piss with subsidised residuals as some kind of tax dodge.

A better gauge of predicted residuals is the cost of leasing, which appears to be pretty competitive on a M3. So the lease companies must be confident of strong residuals to offer such good deals.

Anyway who cares? It's just a car and hardly an investment.

 

[Grimshad]

I have a M3P in the rare metallic silver, with unlimited supercharging. I've owned it for a year and it's still in perfect condition. It's got 20k miles on it and I paid 90k for it.

Carmax offered me 35k and Tesla offered me 45k.

So in 1 year it's about a 62% depreciation.

 

[mswlogo]

I have a M3P in the rare metallic silver, with unlimited supercharging. I've owned it for a year and it's still in perfect condition. It's got 20k miles on it and I paid 90k for it.

Carmax offered me 35k and Tesla offered me 45k.

So in 1 year it's about a 62% depreciation.

Granted you got hit, but no way it was 62%

You don’t include what you paid in taxes (those are not depreciation) and you don’t exclude what you saved in tax breaks. Even if you didn’t save on tax breaks that is what you were competing against.

Also you should have taken the $5k refund trade for free super charging which only has value to you. Can’t be transferred. They might still do it, if you beg enough.

I sold my 1 year old Performance (stealth) privately for $50K. With FSD bought at peak pricing. Only 10K miles though.

I think out of Pocket was like $67k ($10k tax break, $5k refund, not including taxes paid).

About 25% depreciation.

You automatically loose $5k on free super charging. And you have higher than normal mileage. My guess is you could sell around $50k privately.

If you add $5k to your out of pocket for refund you never took and $5k for 20” wheel package over my stealth. Your out of pocket would be close to $77k. So that’s like 35% depreciation. Still high, but not 62%.

I got $10k more than what Tesla offered me.

 

[pgkevet]

Yes the first 2 years I would suspect a higher rate of depreciation, however I do expect this to slow down considerably. I don't know about the financing and residual values as leasing or PCP isn't something that I have looked into.



Don't see the competition for long range EVs with performance of the Model 3 being available in mass in the UK anytime soon for £30k and under, you also need to consider that the market of a vehicle around the £30k mark is going to be even bigger. The EV demand other the next few years is likely going to exceed the production capabilities so I would not expect falling battery costs to be a huge factor.

I also think you will find that the 0-60 timing is very popular outside the one off boy racer types and I am sure other will agree...

Thats my bet placed so I will come back in 3 years to see the result!

Your forgetting that in 3 yrs it'll be obsolete with new M3's costing 45K and fitted with HW4 exra sensors and the promise of FSD within 12mths

 

[MrBadger]

I think Model Y will put a bit of a dent in Model 3 used prices. I think quite a few people will trade up from Model 3 to Model Y so quite a few hitting the pre loved market around the time when some finance deals are also being given up. But good to have more availability in usable EV marketplace irrespective of where the supply comes from.

 

[Jason71]

It's not easy to predict the residual values in 3 years of any car at any time due to factors like.
New technology
taxation
fuel prices
fashion
competition

for an EV most of those factors are massively amplified so it really is incredibly difficult to predict.

 

[TMThree]

Well Tesla estimates the residual on a P3 after 4 years at £23,762 on the site right now, assuming 10k miles/year. New it's £50k, so that's 52.5% depreciation.

Don't read too much into it. Tesla gives unfavorable lease terms because they'd rather you buy outright.

 

[gangzoom]

It's not easy to predict the residual values in 3 years of any car at any time due to factors like.
New technology
taxation
fuel prices
fashion
competition

for an EV most of those factors are massively amplified so it really is incredibly difficult to predict.

Its actually not that hard, the Model S has been onsale since 2014, plenty of used stock, plenty of new EVs introduced since.

Looking at Autotrader the cheapest non crashed S is just under £30k, thats an AP 1, 60 S with 100k on the clock.

Brand new with options that car was about £55k. Say it sells for 90% of advertised value, that's 50% residuals value at 5 years and 100k despite the Model 3 been on the market.

Given even a top spec MG EV is over £25k without manufactures discount and has less range than a 60S I can see why these cars are holding their value.

A used P Model 3 for £35-40k in 2021 will still be better than most EVs onsale.