This is very much like when smart phones first starting appearing, at least from a technology maturation standpoint. The first ones were very primitive, but offered something that the old flip phones simply didn't offer. Of course, after 2 years, you could get one for the same price that was 10x better. And two years after that they were 10x better again. No one at the start of this (~2006) would have predicted where we would be today, well some would have, given the usual technology ramp.
The obvious difference with charging stations is the huge cost. So looking with a crystal ball into the future makes sense before spending large amounts of taxpayer money. When Elon looked at the situation back in 2010-11 he knew that the ramp wasn't going to be where it needed to be to support charging an 85kw battery in a reasonable amount of time. So Tesla went their own way with the Supercharger network.
I suspect that what may happen is that the various charging standards will still be debated over the next several years while larger battery sized vehicles come out. When the Gen 3 vehicle debuts, the Tesla Supercharger network may be so well developed that it becomes the "de facto" medium/long range EV charging network. Only if you drive a Tesla of course. Early adopters of Leaf's and Volt's will never be able to Supercharge. Anyone looking to make use of the Supercharger network will either need to buy a Tesla, or another BEV that opts into the Supercharger network (BMW ?). Older BEV owners not able to connect to Superchargers will be looking for alternatives for longer duration trips.
The thing is though, as the more modern BEV's (S, X, G3) will be Supercharging, the older BEV's will be relegated to the older and slower chargers. Owning one of these vehicles in 2018 will be the equivalent of owning a 4 year old smart phone. As people migrate to BEV's with better ranges, the older EV's will I believe just turn into "regional commuter cars". Anyone wanting to have a vehicle that can do a 300 mile trip in a reasonable amount of time is either going to get a G3 or better car, or rent a gas vehicle if they only make the trip occasionally. Looking at it from this perspective, I agree with techmaven that starting in about 4-5 years, any installed chargers along freeways that are not actual Superchargers will start becoming obsolete, with lower and lower usage over time. At the same time, the Tesla/BMW/? Supercharger network will be expanding gangbusters. My $0.02.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out for sure.
RT
The obvious difference with charging stations is the huge cost. So looking with a crystal ball into the future makes sense before spending large amounts of taxpayer money. When Elon looked at the situation back in 2010-11 he knew that the ramp wasn't going to be where it needed to be to support charging an 85kw battery in a reasonable amount of time. So Tesla went their own way with the Supercharger network.
I suspect that what may happen is that the various charging standards will still be debated over the next several years while larger battery sized vehicles come out. When the Gen 3 vehicle debuts, the Tesla Supercharger network may be so well developed that it becomes the "de facto" medium/long range EV charging network. Only if you drive a Tesla of course. Early adopters of Leaf's and Volt's will never be able to Supercharge. Anyone looking to make use of the Supercharger network will either need to buy a Tesla, or another BEV that opts into the Supercharger network (BMW ?). Older BEV owners not able to connect to Superchargers will be looking for alternatives for longer duration trips.
The thing is though, as the more modern BEV's (S, X, G3) will be Supercharging, the older BEV's will be relegated to the older and slower chargers. Owning one of these vehicles in 2018 will be the equivalent of owning a 4 year old smart phone. As people migrate to BEV's with better ranges, the older EV's will I believe just turn into "regional commuter cars". Anyone wanting to have a vehicle that can do a 300 mile trip in a reasonable amount of time is either going to get a G3 or better car, or rent a gas vehicle if they only make the trip occasionally. Looking at it from this perspective, I agree with techmaven that starting in about 4-5 years, any installed chargers along freeways that are not actual Superchargers will start becoming obsolete, with lower and lower usage over time. At the same time, the Tesla/BMW/? Supercharger network will be expanding gangbusters. My $0.02.
It will be interesting to see how it plays out for sure.
RT
