Mainstream EV Adoption Ultimately Limited By...

[mrbulk]

...individual access to reasonably fast (L2) charging?
I saw several posts in threads here regarding charging obstacles when not residing in a single family home, such as at condos, rental apartments and townhouses.
I am thinking there is still a clear majority of potential EV owners who are holding back from buying until charging stations become as ubiquitous as gas stations which may take years.
Interested in hearing your thoughts on this subject and how it might best be solved.

 

[YYZ-IAD]

Well -- there is the Tesla charging network -- and then there is everyone else.

For some time I lived in condo building with no chargers (although that has recently changed). Before that time, I found it quite easy to do my charging on superchargers. I understand that isn't a solution for everyone. I'd make a stab that over 80% of N. America population lives within 20 miles of a supercharger. I'm sure there is someone at Tesla HQ that knows that number precisely.

VW has very ambitious EV plans as well. Through "dieselgate" they are planning and funding an extensive Electrify America high speed network with locations like Walmarts - or with interstate access allowing road trips.

We are nearing the tipping point where EVs will be much better understood as the word spreads from current owners. The M3 is the 6th best selling car is the USA behind Civic, Camry, Corolla etc. That's a lot of owners that describe their EV experiences to their friends and neighbors.

 

[ucmndd]

I think this ultimately gets “solved” through a number of initiatives happening in parallel.

First, charging infrastructure will increase to meet demand, as it already is. For those without dedicated parking, workplace charging becomes a good alternative. Now that parking meters can be completely replaced by apps and ALPR machines, lets use all those meter posts for L2 charging.

Second, charge speeds should continue to improve to the point that a “fill up” isn’t much more time consuming than getting gas.

Finally, and I think most importantly, I see personal vehicle ownership continuing to rapidly decline in the urban core in favor of public transit and car sharing. As a society we probably need to accept and get over the idea that everyone needs their own $40k 4,000 pound personal transport capsule. It’s not sustainable or reasonable.

 

[YYZ-IAD]

Finally, and I think most importantly, I see personal vehicle ownership continuing to rapidly decline in the urban core in favor of public transit and car sharing. As a society we probably need to accept and get over the idea that everyone needs their own $40k 4,000 pound personal transport capsule. It’s not sustainable or reasonable.

Right on!

Institute for Transportation Studies at Univ California Davis has as their logo: 3 Revolutions: Shared, Automated, Electric. 2040 world will be much different than today.

 

[FatherTo1]

Apartment complexes, condos, and townhomes can apply for local, State, or Federal grants to install L2 chargers or maybe partner with ChargePoint to install their chargers. We are also starting to see additional L2 chargers at supermarkets, malls, and medical clinics. Those are nice but owner's really need charging that is literally at home/home parking lot or at work. We have free Supercharging but it's not worth my time to make the 35-minute roundtrip (plus charging time).

 

[kimvellore]

I think this ultimately gets “solved” through a number of initiatives happening in parallel.

First, charging infrastructure will increase to meet demand, as it already is. For those without dedicated parking, workplace charging becomes a good alternative. Now that parking meters can be completely replaced by apps and ALPR machines, lets use all those meter posts for L2 charging.

Second, charge speeds should continue to improve to the point that a “fill up” isn’t much more time consuming than getting gas.

Finally, and I think most importantly, I see personal vehicle ownership continuing to rapidly decline in the urban core in favor of public transit and car sharing. As a society we probably need to accept and get over the idea that everyone needs their own $40k 4,000 pound personal transport capsule. It’s not sustainable or reasonable.

US is the only first world with the poorest infrastructure for public transportation. Fortunately new innovations and ideas have made it easy without relying on the state run public transportation.
I would love to take public transportation than sit in traffic but my commute from home to work is ~2 hours with 3 different transportation agencies, vs 30 minutes drive, 12 miles.

 

[YYZ-IAD]

I would love to take public transportation than sit in traffic but my commute from home to work is ~2 hours with 3 different transportation agencies, vs 30 minutes drive, 12 miles.

That is why so much research is going into shared autonomous vehicles. You can have something closer to your 30 min drive without having to own a vehicle

 

[JimBob 909]

Apartment complexes, condos, and townhomes can apply for local, State, or Federal grants to install L2 chargers or maybe partner with ChargePoint to install their chargers. We are also starting to see additional L2 chargers at supermarkets, malls, and medical clinics. Those are nice but owner's really need charging that is literally at home/home parking lot or at work. We have free Supercharging but it's not worth my time to make the 35-minute roundtrip (plus charging time).

I agree. Free Supercharging is great for road trips but there are no superchargers near me. From the beginning the reason i bought a Model S was to charge at home. A "full tank" anytime I want without having to go to the gas station to fill up is a great luxury, and it's a bunch less expensive than gas and doesn't spew out carbon monoxide. Coupled with a quiet smooth ride......I am glad I did it.

 

[bob_p]

Other manufacturers are struggling with EV sales due to:

• lack of a long distance fast-charging network, mostly limiting their vehicles to local driving
• manufacturers have yet to release a vehicle that has longer range than the 2012 S 85
• their dealerships prefer to sell ICE's that generate long term service revenues

At some point, the above will change - until then, shouldn't be surprised to see each new "Tesla killer" fail to meet sales expectations.

EV adoption is still limited by price. Total lifetime cost of an EV is less expensive than a comparable ICE due to lower long-term fuel and service costs. But the purchase price of an EV tends to be higher (even with tax credits), which impacts sales. Plus the entry EV prices are still higher than entry ICE prices - though that will also change as EV production/battery costs continue to come down.

And the other factor is refueling time. Driving an EV requires a change in how vehicles are driven, especially for long-distance driving requiring a re-fueling stop, which can be done only at a limited number of locations, and requires a longer stop than refueling an ICE. And while Tesla is improving this with V3 supercharging, it's still takes longer to refuel a V3 supercharging vehicle than refilling an ICE tank.

 

[msm859]

Other manufacturers are struggling with EV sales due to:

• lack of a long distance fast-charging network, mostly limiting their vehicles to local driving
• manufacturers have yet to release a vehicle that has longer range than the 2012 S 85
• their dealerships prefer to sell ICE's that generate long term service revenues

At some point, the above will change - until then, shouldn't be surprised to see each new "Tesla killer" fail to meet sales expectations.

EV adoption is still limited by price. Total lifetime cost of an EV is less expensive than a comparable ICE due to lower long-term fuel and service costs. But the purchase price of an EV tends to be higher (even with tax credits), which impacts sales. Plus the entry EV prices are still higher than entry ICE prices - though that will also change as EV production/battery costs continue to come down.

And the other factor is refueling time. Driving an EV requires a change in how vehicles are driven, especially for long-distance driving requiring a re-fueling stop, which can be done only at a limited number of locations, and requires a longer stop than refueling an ICE. And while Tesla is improving this with V3 supercharging, it's still takes longer to refuel a V3 supercharging vehicle than refilling an ICE tank.

Price is certainly a factor, refueling time less so. How often does someone drive over 250 miles in a single day? With all new Teslas having a range above 300 miles, that is becoming less important. Once the range is over 400 miles and you can charge to 80% in @ 30 minutes it will become a non issue.

 

[CrayZ1]

Parking meters are electronic now. Put a 240v port in parking meters, and increase their number.
That is if they REALLY want EV adoption. I'm not convinced California does anymore, and I'm not sure why. Our state is starting to nerf their EV programs.

 

[bob_p]

Price is certainly a factor, refueling time less so. How often does someone drive over 250 miles in a single day? With all new Teslas having a range above 300 miles, that is becoming less important. Once the range is over 400 miles and you can charge to 80% in @ 30 minutes it will become a non issue.

Other manufacturers haven't yet released a vehicle with range longer than a 2012 S 85.

Range anxiety can be a major concern for ICE owners considering their first EV. While most vehicles are driven less than 100 miles per day, the availability of long-distance charging and the time it takes to charge will feed into that range anxiety.

Tesla has huge advantages against competing EVs today because of the supercharger & destination charger networks, fast charging, and longer range.

But those advantages will disappear at some point. Until then we'll likely see Tesla continue to dominate EV sales - and it will be interesting to see how well the Model Y and Cybertruck do against ICE counterparts.

 

[cduzz]

I think this ultimately gets “solved” through a number of initiatives happening in parallel.

First, charging infrastructure will increase to meet demand, as it already is. For those without dedicated parking, workplace charging becomes a good alternative. Now that parking meters can be completely replaced by apps and ALPR machines, lets use all those meter posts for L2 charging.

Second, charge speeds should continue to improve to the point that a “fill up” isn’t much more time consuming than getting gas.

Finally, and I think most importantly, I see personal vehicle ownership continuing to rapidly decline in the urban core in favor of public transit and car sharing. As a society we probably need to accept and get over the idea that everyone needs their own $40k 4,000 pound personal transport capsule. It’s not sustainable or reasonable.

I think long-term ownership of cars is going to remain a thing for the foreseeable future. Kids to soccer games, taking the dog to the park, moving a sofa, buying lumber, etc. Many of these are tasks that can be solved trivially with "the car" or with an absurdly complex confluence of ride-share / rental / city-of-the-future proposals. I don't like it but I think it is what it is.

Similarly -- charging your car without a driveway is a serious challenge in areas where it gets cold. High current charging, such as urban superchargers at the supermarket, will have a really hard task of warming up a battery and putting a useful amount of range into the battery in a 20-30 minute shopping visit. Running cables under the sidewalks and installing high-current chargers may make sense in a place where you have a huge density of EVs but it is also an enormously expensive infrastructure bet that most cities don't have the ability to make. It also sounds pretty disruptive to the people who use those sidewalks. I can think of ways of solving that problem but they will run into economics (charging a car "at a profit" will probably blow up the economics of owning an EV and still be pretty slow and inconvenient). I charge my car at work "for free" (work pays for the station and electricity) -- I don't expect that to last forever, and if they added a vig on top of the utility rates, I'd just start charging at home (as I probably should anyhow)

Long term, there are likely to be important code changes such as "any new higher density housing must have provisions for a parking space per unit where it is possible to an EV charger to that unit's meter" or "any new parking structure must have provisions to allow up to 1/3rd of all parking spaces to have dedicated 208/30a charging (in the form of conduit run between parking space clusters and a location amenable to high-current utility delivered to a large panel for circuit breakers). But infrastructure changes like this take decades.

Supercharging or any "high current / voltage DC charging", in slow environments, is at best a crutch because even if the batteries have the ability to charge at super high rates, that typically can only happen when the battery is preconditioned to be at a pretty high temperature; there is no such issue with filling a car's tank in sub-zero temperatures.

At the moment, the advantages of EV ownership are heavily biased towards those who can park the EV in their driveway and charge it with power from their house solar roof.

I've been taught not to point out a problem unless I have a solution... I don't always do as I've been taught.

 

[Kandiru]

Cities also need to electrify public parking lots and street meters should also incorporate L2.

Unless you own a home EVs are not for you.

 

[Battpower]

...individual access to reasonably fast (L2) charging?
I saw several posts in threads here regarding charging obstacles when not residing in a single family home, such as at condos, rental apartments and townhouses.
I am thinking there is still a clear majority of potential EV owners who are holding back from buying until charging stations become as ubiquitous as gas stations which may take years.
Interested in hearing your thoughts on this subject and how it might best be solved.

I'm sure availability of places to plug in over night is a huge issue, especially in neighborhoods where parking is predominantly on the street. But I think a bigger issue is electricity generation. Not just because of moving pollution from towns to electricity generation plants, but far more related to the shear amount of energy. Fossil fuels are attractive because they have pretty high energy density and are ubiquitous. Renewable all depend on natural events that are variable. Sure, in San Diego and elsewhere in California / Arizona / Nevada the sun and solar PV is pretty predictable. But having renewable energy systems that can tolerate extremes of generation demand as well as weather conditions is a demanding challenge. Also, if you think of current energy demands and pressure on reducing ac use and other peak time loads... then look at these pre and post EV electricity graphs from my home in the UK.

In 2015, this is how my annual use looked month by month. Red section shows electricity from the grid. Yellow and blue combined shows energy from my solar panels. This isn't the full picture, but the proportions show my concern. The monthly consumption sits around 400kwh, mostly from PV during summer months.

The second graph is post EV and typical monthly consumption is between 800 and 1000kwh.

This includes around 10,000 miles in a car doing 3.5 to 4.5 miles per kwh.

If you want full details this post will go on forever because there is a lot more going on and this is only part of a bigger installation, but the principle is valid.

If you work out the energy value of fossil fuels being burned and even with vehicle efficiency increases work out loads on electricity generation and distribution, it looks like between double and quadruple increase by my rough calculation and experience.

 

[cduzz]

I'm sure availability of places to plug in over night is a huge issue, especially in neighborhoods where parking is predominantly on the street. But I think a bigger issue is electricity generation. Not just because of moving pollution from towns to electricity generation plants, but far more related to the shear amount of energy. Fossil fuels are attractive because they have pretty high energy density and are ubiquitous. Renewable all depend on natural events that are variable. Sure, in San Diego and elsewhere in California / Arizona / Nevada the sun and solar PV is pretty predictable. But having renewable energy systems that can tolerate extremes of generation demand as well as weather conditions is a demanding challenge. Also, if you think of current energy demands and pressure on reducing ac use and other peak time loads... then look at these pre and post EV electricity graphs from my home in the UK.

I believe that concerns over absolute grid capacity are unwarranted.

The next generation of EV charging stations will have 3 things (and may already have two of these things):

1. the ability for the utility to remotely turn on and off the charger
2. the ability to meter / charge different rates for the power that goes into that charger
3. the ability for customers to say how much they want that power (IE run an auction)

You plug your car into the grid and it knows how much you need the power and bids for it and you get "the cheapest slot overnight that charges your car to the desired charge level." Basically if my car knows that it needs to be charging for 5 hours continuously to get to 80%, it lets the power company know, the scheduler does tetris with all my neighbors and I and gives us all continuous slots to charge the cars. Overnight there is plenty of extra power capacity.

 

[Battpower]

I believe that concerns over absolute grid capacity are unwarranted.

The next generation of EV charging stations will have 3 things (and may already have two of these things):

1. the ability for the utility to remotely turn on and off the charger
2. the ability to meter / charge different rates for the power that goes into that charger
3. the ability for customers to say how much they want that power (IE run an auction)

You plug your car into the grid and it knows how much you need the power and bids for it and you get "the cheapest slot overnight that charges your car to the desired charge level." Basically if my car knows that it needs to be charging for 5 hours continuously to get to 80%, it lets the power company know, the scheduler does tetris with all my neighbors and I and gives us all continuous slots to charge the cars. Overnight there is plenty of extra power capacity.

I'm not convinced. Commercial fleets are often driven significantly overnight so need charging during the day. Until battery technology (capacity) allows them to be used 80% of the time between 25% and 75% SOC, fast charging will still be important to owners. I am not aware of any industry-wide standard for vehicle to provide SOC data and estimated future needs that would be needed to predict demand and charge accordingly. Unless there is a huge increase in workplace charging, a significant amount of charging for commuter vehicles will be done overnight. Also, energy buffering (local battery storage at charge stations) can reduce peak loads but becomes an additional off peak load.

My post was attempting to show how net energy use changes when running an EV. In my none exceptional case, winter net electricity consumption is nearly 3 times greater with my EV than without. Of course it is to be hoped that diversity of demand time will spread the load, but there are already questions about peak generation capacity when renewables like wind suffer widespread dip. I am suggesting that if the current vehicle fleet in regular use were to migrate rapidly to EV, that would be a huge additional increase in overnight load on distribution network and net increase in electric energy use.

I agree that smart energy pricing and control of charging times will come in most markets (maybe less so in very sunny locations where solar PV shade structures could / should become the norm as its a great way of keeping EV load off the existing distribution network), however existing vehicle / BMS designs may not suit the idea of stopping and starting charging to match demand.

Decommissioning of natural gas and coal plants is presumably going to exasserbate the potential for overnight energy shortage.

On the plus side, the graphs show that for over 6 months almost all my electricity needs including car are met from my solar PV.

 

[kkillebrew]

All it takes is a few 1000 mile + road trips to realize how impossible it would be to complete a 500 mile drive in a single day without superchargers. Maybe in some places with careful planning this could be done with other DC charging networks but it would be impossible in most areas of the US. It is the biggest single issue with buying an EV in my mind, but it depends heavily on how you intend to use your car. Right now if you like to travel, and want to go cross county in your EV, you are out of luck if you do not own a Tesla. When supercharging on the road I have a rule that charging at a speed slower than the speed limit is not worthwhile... That's pretty much all level 2 chargers. Even with the SC network I always make the effort to stop at hotels with destination chargers on site, or superchargers nearby.

 

[cduzz]

I'm not convinced. Commercial fleets are often driven significantly overnight so need charging during the day. Until battery technology (capacity) allows them to be used 80% of the time between 25% and 75% SOC, fast charging will still be important to owners. I am not aware of any industry-wide standard for vehicle to provide SOC data and estimated future needs that would be needed to predict demand and charge accordingly. Unless there is a huge increase in workplace charging, a significant amount of charging for commuter vehicles will be done overnight. Also, energy buffering (local battery storage at charge stations) can reduce peak loads but becomes an additional off peak load.

My post was attempting to show how net energy use changes when running an EV. In my none exceptional case, winter net electricity consumption is nearly 3 times greater with my EV than without. Of course it is to be hoped that diversity of demand time will spread the load, but there are already questions about peak generation capacity when renewables like wind suffer widespread dip. I am suggesting that if the current vehicle fleet in regular use were to migrate rapidly to EV, that would be a huge additional increase in overnight load on distribution network and net increase in electric energy use.

I agree that smart energy pricing and control of charging times will come in most markets (maybe less so in very sunny locations where solar PV shade structures could / should become the norm as its a great way of keeping EV load off the existing distribution network), however existing vehicle / BMS designs may not suit the idea of stopping and starting charging to match demand.

Decommissioning of natural gas and coal plants is presumably going to exasserbate the potential for overnight energy shortage.

On the plus side, the graphs show that for over 6 months almost all my electricity needs including car are met from my solar PV.

So -- I can't speak for Mr Musk but... Time of use spikes can be smoothed out through having enormous batteries near the point of consumption. These spikes can be further managed by having the utility coordinate with the consumer.

Your example of a commercial fleet is an interesting one; they're a pretty "worst-case-scenario" use if you have a hypothetical amazon-delivery type fleet where you've got the goal of keeping the trucks wheels-on-the-road 100% of the time, makin' fat stacks for Bezos 25by7. Having a required downtime of 8 hours while you trickle-charge your fleet is ... a disadvantage. DC fast charging isn't a problem for them because the batteries are probably hot all the time, so all you need to do is make sure you have a big battery getting recharged at a constant rate from the utility and then you dump power from that battery into whichever truck happens to be being loaded at that moment.

But... The current grid is setup with a base generation capacity and "peaker plants" to manage surges. You can put a "battery" in front of the base load generation and supply spikes from that generation; putting several batteries between the utility and the consumer smooths out the majority of those spikes and actually allows you to eliminate most of the peakers and possibly base load generation (if you have wider spread solar).

 

[Battpower]

Also, energy buffering (local battery storage at charge stations) can reduce peak loads but becomes an additional off peak load.

Time of use spikes can be smoothed out through having enormous batteries near the point of consumption.

IMO buffer stores only make sense where you have large amounts of renewable energy with sufficient predictability and consistency to keep the store (batteries) replenished. If that is not possible, then your energy buffer store often has a one shot use, and then just joins the queue to recharge (potentially at peak time) which all contributes to making that energy more costly (any that passes through a battery).

Sadly, my domestic installation treats me to many such considerations. I have multiple batteries, multiple inverters and multiple solar PV arrays (not by design - just because of expanding my capacity which has definite parallels in the world of evolving EV charging.)

Trying to predict the weather, domestic electricity needs, distance I'll be driving, at what time of day and with what charging options along the way is not at all easy. In the summer months it doesn't make much difference as I have enough energy for all needs and end up inventing extra load just to make use of everything I generate. In the colder / less sunny months I have options to charge fixed storage batteries cheaply overnight to run the domestic load during the day.

All it takes to change my charging and use patterns is unseasonably sunny (or cloudy) weather, or a significantly different energy tariff from our supplier.

Point is that while all that is very variable, net amount of energy is a finite amount. That's why I think my average consumption over a year tells a more relevant story. The energy has to come from somewhere, and if it passes through a buffer on its way to point of use, then that increases net energy use due to battery system efficiency.