Major Tesla event(s) Q1

[Buckminster]

Up to 10 votes available - 1 or zero per numbered question please. Vote positively if you think there is a great than 50% chance of it being unveiled by Elon in a live presentation event. Model Y presentation is expected around 15th March but some have suggested that we might see major announcements ahead of that date.

 

[mongo]

Can Q1 include April? I know he threw out March 15th... But we know how that goes...

 

[wjhepworth]

I actually think a Model S refresh is a possibility given the demise of the 75D. In the long run I suspect there will be a higher capacity S which only makes sense as the Model S should have more benefits to justify the higher cost.

 

[Barklikeadog]

They will do whatever brings in deposits asap

 

[dc_h]

I voted for several, but each unveiling is as likely in q2 or q3 as q1. I thought he was considering pushing the Y revealmout closer to production to avoid some of the overhype from the model 3 and maybe avoid antiselling to keep 3 demand running. Seems like the FSD pilot should already be running. If results are really good, they could release an update or start installing the new chipset quitely and wait for wk057 or some other engineer/hacker to uncover and reveal. FSD is going to be potentially controversial, so they may want to quietly get a few hundred million miles recorded before any public announcement.
Interesting how the SX pack assemblies apparently are built to a size that would allow a 2170 pack to be used without a redesign of the car or chassis. I think productivity gains in cell production are too huge to keep using the old lines in Japan and the 3 pack design provides much better performance.
It also sounds like updated higher throughput charging stations are already out there, so is this something they’ll discuss art earnings, or save for a product reveal?
Solar roof also seems to be ramping up without fanfare. Will they continue to downplay until they’ve refined the installation process? Seems likely that the costs is still too high to sell en mass and very profitably.

 

[jeewee3000]

Not to be "that guy", but I wanted to vote "there will be 0 unveil events in Q1".

The poll doesn't contain that option. I know we're just playing around, but this goes to show how the way a poll is presented influences the results greatly. A FUD article created based on this poll could read: "BREAKING NEWS: 40% of voters thinks there will be 2 unveil event,s 60% thinks there will be 1 unveil event in Q1!"

So my 2 cents: the model Y event will arrive in May. Usual delays: focus on standard range Model 3 production hell first.

 

[MakeUSGreat]

The y still a year away, 2020

 

[Buckminster]

So does a potential pickup reveal in the summer mean that MY is likely to remain on track for March reveal? I am guessing it is. Elon is so big on the pickup, it is unlikely he will want to dilute the story.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

The y still a year away, 2020

Perhaps...but they can still unveil the Y this year. The Model 3 was unveiled on 3/31/16 and they didn't start delivering those until July 2017.

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

Perhaps...but they can still unveil the Y this year. The Model 3 was unveiled on 3/31/16 and they didn't start delivering those until July 2017.

Ignoring the usual convention of converting Elon time to real time.... He said in the investor meeting that they are going to start low volume production of Model Y early in 2020 in Freemont, and then switch to volume productions at the Gigafactory 1 through 2020.

Taking that forecast at face value, they will have to road test the Model Y and seek normal regulatory approvals in 2019. Elon will want to announce and show the Model Y before the motoring press get candid shots of it, so he will have to announce it and show the exterior at least 9 months ahead.
This puts the initial big reveal sometime in Q2-2019

 

[Buckminster]

I see no reason for delaying March unveil - Eng complete

 

[MorrisonHiker]

Ignoring the usual convention of converting Elon time to real time.... He said in the investor meeting that they are going to start low volume production of Model Y early in 2020 in Freemont, and then switch to volume productions at the Gigafactory 1 through 2020.

Taking that forecast at face value, they will have to road test the Model Y and seek normal regulatory approvals in 2019. Elon will want to announce and show the Model Y before the motoring press get candid shots of it, so he will have to announce it and show the exterior at least 9 months ahead.
This puts the initial big reveal sometime in Q2-2019

Possibly March 2019, but yes, I agree it is coming soon.

 

[MP3Mike]

He said in the investor meeting that they are going to start low volume production of Model Y early in 2020 in Freemont

Are you sure? I don't recall hearing that.