Make your robotaxi predictions for the 8/8 reveal

So Elon says that Tesla will reveal a dedicated robotaxi vehicle on 8/8. What do you think we will see? Will it look like this concept art or something else?

I will say that while this concept drawing looks super cool, I am a bit skeptical if it is practical as a robotaxi. It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people. Also, it would likely need a steering wheel and pedals for regulatory reasons even if Tesla did achieve eyes-off capability.

So I think this is concept art for a hypothetical 2 seater, cheap Tesla, not a robotaxi.

Could the robotaxi look more like this concept art but smaller? It could look a bit more like say the Zoox vehicle or the Cruise Origin, more futuristic box like shape IMO and seat 5-6 people.

Or maybe the robotaxi will look more like the "model 2" concept:

Other questions:
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
- What will cost be?
- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work?

Thoughts? Let the fun speculation begin!

 

[spacecoin]

That's the Mobileye robotaxi strategy.

That's everyone's strategy. Software is the way to build a scalable business, hardware or manufacturing is not. Nor is running a taxi business. Waymo only does it out of necessity for now.

I'd never buy stock in an auto company. Not even one that poses as a software one. You need to deploy insane amounts of capital and the only thing that comes out of it is that you can participate in a price war with a commodity product "the EV" that is more or less the same as everyone else's.

 

[diplomat33]

That's everyone's strategy. Software is the way to build a scalable business, hardware or manufacturing is not. Nor is running a taxi business. Waymo only does it out of necessity for now.

Pure speculation on my part (I don't have any insider info) but I think Waymo will transition to licensing the Waymo Driver at some point once they feel that the Waymo Driver is ready. I feel like the robotaxi model is just a platform to develop the tech.

 

[JulienW]

Pure speculation on my part (I don't have any insider info) but I think Waymo will transition to licensing the Waymo Driver at some point once they feel that the Waymo Driver is ready. I feel like the robotaxi model is just a platform to develop the tech.

....but do you need $100k in car modes/equipment/computers to run it? That is fine for a large company but even a small robotaxi company would find it cost prohibitive.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I don't know if the liability would be any different if Mobileye managed a fleet of robotaxis themselves. I mean, if Mobileye managed their own fleet of robotaxis, they would be directly liable. So either way, Mobileye would face the risk of liability. To address your question, Mobileye works closely with the OEM to do robust testing and validation before any deployment. So Mobileye works with the OEM to ensure the system is safe enough. Mobileye does not just sell the tech and say "good luck".

Unless they can somehow pin it on the OEM Mobileye would be liable for any at fault collisions. What happens if Mobileye wants to upgrade the hardware because they keep getting sued? The OEM isn't going to want to pay for that. If a hardware failure causes a collision they'll be fighting with the OEM about whether or not the system should have detected it beforehand or the OEM didn't do proper inspection/maintenance.

 

[enemji]

Forgetting for a moment what the RoboTaxi may look like, I wonder about liability. If Tesla owns all the taxis, and there is no human intervention, why would anyone want to take on that liability? If they make them available for retail purchase, how will the owner get the needed insurance?

I am sure that just like NHSTA crash test ratings, AV ratings will be a thing that will drive insurance rates, including the zip codes and previous accident history.

Automated Vehicles for Safety | NHTSA

Get info on automated driving systems, also referred to as automated vehicles and "self-driving" cars, and learn about their safety potential.

www.nhtsa.gov

If a vehicle is driving itself, who is liable if the vehicle crashes? How is the vehicle insured?​

It is vital to emphasize that drivers will continue to share driving responsibilities for the foreseeable future and must remain engaged and attentive to the driving task and the road ahead with the consumer available technologies today. However, questions about liability and insurance are among many important questions, in addition to technical considerations that, policymakers are working to address before automated driving systems reach their maturity and are available to the public.

 

[diplomat33]

....but do you need $100k in car modes/equipment/computers to run it? That is fine for a large company but even a small robotaxi company would find it cost prohibitive.

Waymo is working to bring that cost down. Dolgov has said that the cost of the upcoming 6th Gen is "drastically lower" than the 5th Gen. So no, you won't need $100k of equipment to run it.

 

[diplomat33]

Unless they can somehow pin it on the OEM Mobileye would be liable for any at fault collisions. What happens if Mobileye wants to upgrade the hardware because they keep getting sued? The OEM isn't going to want to pay for that. If a hardware failure causes a collision they'll be fighting with the OEM about whether or not the system should have detected it beforehand or the OEM didn't do proper inspection/maintenance.

Yes, Mobileye knows that they would be liable. And Shashua has said that OEMs have told them that they will only do eyes-off if the autonomous driving can do 10M hours of highway driving between collisions with injury. That's the whole reason why Mobileye is doing everything they are doing from built in redundancy, simulation testing, shadow mode validation etc to try to get to that MTBF of 10M hours before they would certify the system as eyes off. Mobileye knows that the bar is very high.

 

[MarkDave]

Yes, Mobileye knows that they would be liable. And Shashua has said that OEMs have told them that they will only do eyes-off if the autonomous driving can do 10M hours of highway driving between collisions with injury. That's the whole reason why Mobileye is doing everything they are doing from built in redundancy, simulation testing, shadow mode validation etc to try to get to that MTBF of 10M hours before they would certify the system as eyes off. Mobileye knows that the bar is very high.

10 million hours MTBF ... Where's FSD at, approx 10 seconds or 10 minutes?

 

[Daniel in SD]

10 million hours MTBF ... Where's FSD at, approx 10 seconds or 10 minutes?

I assume they're talking about an actual at fault collision. The vast majority of FSD disengagements wouldn't result in a collision (though many would result in very irate road users). My guess is between 10-100 hours.

 

[QtownTaxiGreg]

The moon is closer than FSD is to a robot driving unsupervised.

 

[diplomat33]

10 million hours MTBF ... Where's FSD at, approx 10 seconds or 10 minutes?

The 10M hours MTBF is for at-fault collisions that result in injury or death. So FSD's MTBF would be way higher that 10 minutes. Remember, not all interventions correspond to an at-fault collisions with injury or death. Many FSD interventions are not safety related and would not count in this MTBF. Tesla's MTBF would be nowhere near 10M hours but it would be much higher than 10 minutes.

 

[spacecoin]

Waymo is working to bring that cost down. Dolgov has said that the cost of the upcoming 6th Gen is "drastically lower" than the 5th Gen. So no, you won't need $100k of equipment to run it.

Now all their sensors re built in house AFAIK. The required sensing will be off the self and at the fraction of the cost because of sensor innovation and volumes picking up.

It's just a matter of time. Hardware cost work that way... I'm guessing a full system will be at less than $10k in 3-5 years.

 

[jabloomf1230]

The 10M hours MTBF is for at-fault collisions that result in injury or death. So FSD's MTBF would be way higher that 10 minutes. Remember, not all interventions correspond to an at-fault collisions with injury or death. Many FSD interventions are not safety related and would not count in this MTBF. Tesla's MTBF would be nowhere near 10M hours but it would be much higher than 10 minutes.

If you're going to continue compare Waymo to FSD, then you should standardize both datasets. Waymo operates in extremely limited geographic areas of the US and not on highways (except for testing purposes). FSD operates over the entire road network of the US and Canada.

 

[diplomat33]

If you're going to continue compare Waymo to FSD, then you should standardize both datasets. Waymo operates in extremely limited geographic areas of the US and not on highways (except for testing purposes). FSD operates over the entire road network of the US and Canada.

Read my posts in context. I was not comparing Waymo to FSD. I was not saying that Waymo's MTBF is 10M hours, I was talking about Mobileye. 10M hours MTBF on highways is Mobileye's goal for deploying eyes-off on highways.

 

[RDoc]

I doubt they will be able to by then. Ingress / egress is more complicated than one thinks, but it’s not impossible. Vision only without the front cam might not be safe enough for driverless where people that walk around?

This would be for the Boring Company tunnels where they only stop at controlled stations and only Tesla vehicles are in the tunnels. I strongly suspect they've been working on some kind of automated people movers for some time. These would be more like driverless airport sky trams than cars. Kind of horizontal elevators.

 

[spacecoin]

This would be for the Boring Company tunnels where they only stop at controlled stations and only Tesla vehicles are in the tunnels. I strongly suspect they've been working on some kind of automated people movers for some time. These would be more like driverless airport sky trams than cars. Kind of horizontal elevators.

Have you seen the ”station” at LVCC?

 

[jabloomf1230]

Read my posts in context. I was not comparing Waymo to FSD. I was not saying that Waymo's MTBF is 10M hours, I was talking about Mobileye. 10M hours MTBF on highways is Mobileye's goal for deploying eyes-off on highways.

I will predict that Teslas's robotaxis in the Vega Loop will have an incredibly impressive low failure rate per mile. Eh, so what?

 

[diplomat33]

I will predict that Teslas's robotaxis in the Vega Loop will have an incredibly impressive low failure rate per mile. Eh, so what?

That is why the ODD matters. You always need to specify the ODD attached to the MTBF.

 

[kpanda17]

So Elon says that Tesla will reveal a dedicated robotaxi vehicle on 8/8. What do you think we will see? Will it look like this concept art or something else?

I will say that while this concept drawing looks super cool, I am a bit skeptical if it is practical as a robotaxi. It looks to only have 2 seats which would be fine for 1-2 people who need a ride but would not work for more than 2 people. I feel like that would limit the robotaxis value for a lot of people. Also, it would likely need a steering wheel and pedals for regulatory reasons even if Tesla did achieve eyes-off capability.

So I think this is concept art for a hypothetical 2 seater, cheap Tesla, not a robotaxi.

Could the robotaxi look more like this concept art but smaller? It could look a bit more like say the Zoox vehicle or the Cruise Origin, more futuristic box like shape IMO and seat 5-6 people.

Or maybe the robotaxi will look more like the "model 2" concept:

Other questions:
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
- What will cost be?
- Will it have upgraded hardware? Radar? Lidar? additional compute?
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work?

Thoughts? Let the fun speculation begin!

it will be M2 concept
Uber drivers pick me up frequently in a Honda HRV, for cheap ubers/lyfts, these seem to the tolerant sized vehicle
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
think at the beginning, owned by Tesla and ride sharing out only, remember insurance is complicated for ridesharing our own vehicle if we dont have Tesla insurance, tesla insurance is not in every state, the Tesla robotaxi will be geofenced similar to Waymo
- What will cost be? same trip price as an Uber/Lyft
- Will it have upgraded hardware?
HW4 or maybe 5 by that time, Radar? no, Lidar? no, additional compute? no, but you did not ask about additional cameras, think it will have an additional lower front camera
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work? yes, he will show us it in the tesla app or another tesla app

think the M2 for private ownership will be late 2025 or early 2026
person renting of Robotaxi, will be 2026 and req Tesla insurance

 

[kpanda17]

it will be M2 concept
Uber drivers pick me up frequently in a Honda HRV, for cheap ubers/lyfts, these seem to the tolerant sized vehicle
- Will the robotaxis be available to own by individuals as a personal car or will it strictly be owned by Tesla and only used in a ride-hailing network?
think at the beginning, owned by Tesla and ride sharing out only, remember insurance is complicated for ridesharing our own vehicle if we dont have Tesla insurance, tesla insurance is not in every state, the Tesla robotaxi will be geofenced similar to Waymo
- What will cost be? same trip price as an Uber/Lyft
- Will it have upgraded hardware?
HW4 or maybe 5 by that time, Radar? no, Lidar? no, additional compute? no, but you did not ask about additional cameras, think it will have an additional lower front camera
- Will Elon reveal any details on how the ride-hailing network will work? yes, he will show us it in the tesla app or another tesla app

think the M2 for private ownership will be late 2025 or early 2026
person renting of Robotaxi, will be 2026 and req Tesla insurance

adding, ride sharing our exiting Teslas will be 2025 but req Tesla insurance