Hopefully they are about as close to balancing now as they ever will be...
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Hopefully they are about as close to balancing now as they ever will be...
Although I think Tesla will do very well in the months ahead, I'm personally worried about a declining share price later this week and next week, including for a couple of days after earnings. That's because I expect negative sentiment to continue - there is so much negative sentiment right now that the stock still isn't behaving like it did over most of the last year. As we get closer to earnings, I suspect that more people will be worried and will want to sell.
Afterwards, I expect the media will focus on the negatives in the earnings report (e.g. losses in Q1) and continue to generate negative headlines, even if production news is great.
It is also possible that 5000/week (on a sustainable basis) will be officially delayed into Q3. Unless margins at 4000/week are better than expected, obviously any delay to 5000/week can't be too far into Q3 because of Elon's tweet over cash flow/profitability, but it would still make for bad headlines.
Also, the decreased automation may negatively effect Model 3 margin projections - hopefully only in the short-medium term, and perhaps not too much if the increased 6k/week capacity of the line can make up for that to some extent, but again there may be negative headlines from this.
Finally, the coast-to-coast autonomous driving demonstration could be pushed back again - yet another opportunity for negative headlines.
Afterwards, I expect the media will focus on the negatives in the earnings report (e.g. losses in Q1) and continue to generate negative headlines, even if production news is great.
It is also possible that 5000/week (on a sustainable basis) will be officially delayed into Q3. Unless margins at 4000/week are better than expected, obviously any delay to 5000/week can't be too far into Q3 because of Elon's tweet over cash flow/profitability, but it would still make for bad headlines.
Also, the decreased automation may negatively effect Model 3 margin projections - hopefully only in the short-medium term, and perhaps not too much if the increased 6k/week capacity of the line can make up for that to some extent, but again there may be negative headlines from this.
Finally, the coast-to-coast autonomous driving demonstration could be pushed back again - yet another opportunity for negative headlines.
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Reciprocity
Active Member
I kind of feel bad for Ford. All that debt and no ability to react to the coming EV storm. I'll paint you picture of what will scare Ford because Ford doesn't sell many cars that compete with Tesla's today. But Elon is going to reveal a pickup and he is going to have it pulling and 80,000 lbs semi up a mountain faster then diesel semi could drive itself up the same mountain. Then the driver will get out and plug in all his gear.
At that moment, all the execs a at Ford will wheep and say, why Elon hate us? Then they will strap some batteries to an f150 but by then, it will be too late.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Share prices go up and down, besides the drop to 248 recently, Tesla is tracking the crappy market lately as much anything. The correction will work itself out and the market will find a direction, hopefully up.
As Elon said, he sees a path out of hell. That to me means 5k is attainable in the best future. 10k is a matter of duplication of parts of the line and is all but guaranteed when Tesla hits 5k. Only time and 50% of the original capex is required to get the new segments of the line integrated. The nice thing about this capex is that they don't pay until the new equipment is installed and working. This means it will be installed and producing thousands of more model 3s before a single dollar is paid out. Given the terms on parts, the new line can pay for itself in 2 quarters with no capex required.
sweter
Member
I'm (mostly) all in TSLA. Occassionally trading 1/3rd of shares into something else to ride out and/or maximize gains on dips. Started in 12.2016 and from initial 197 shares I managed to trade my way up to 282 now, just by selling and buying without additional capital. Goal is 300 and then I stay 100% TSLA, hopefully before Q3.
But all in doesn't mean it's 100% of my cash/assets, roughly 50% now and declining as other income sources accumulate. So I'm not too afraid even if I lose everything it won't affect my quality of life (ok, it might mean no Model 3 for me...
).
I tried diversification with some good results (there were times where I didn't own any TSLA), but it's too stressful and demanding to keep track of everything. Plus, I feel like I have a very good idea of what's going on with Tesla (mainly thanks to this forum) and can make informed decisions and projections (even if they don't play out I can justify myself by saying I've made the best decision given the available data), while other stock is mostly WAG about the future.
But all in doesn't mean it's 100% of my cash/assets, roughly 50% now and declining as other income sources accumulate. So I'm not too afraid even if I lose everything it won't affect my quality of life (ok, it might mean no Model 3 for me...
).I tried diversification with some good results (there were times where I didn't own any TSLA), but it's too stressful and demanding to keep track of everything. Plus, I feel like I have a very good idea of what's going on with Tesla (mainly thanks to this forum) and can make informed decisions and projections (even if they don't play out I can justify myself by saying I've made the best decision given the available data), while other stock is mostly WAG about the future.
I'm (mostly) all in TSLA. Occassionally trading 1/3rd of shares into something else to ride out and/or maximize gains on dips. Started in 12.2016 and from initial 197 shares I managed to trade my way up to 282 now, just by selling and buying without additional capital. Goal is 300 and then I stay 100% TSLA, hopefully before Q3.
But all in doesn't mean it's 100% of my cash/assets, roughly 50% now and declining as other income sources accumulate. So I'm not too afraid even if I lose everything it won't affect my quality of life (ok, it might mean no Model 3 for me...
I tried diversification with some good results (there were times where I didn't own any TSLA), but it's too stressful and demanding to keep track of everything. Plus, I feel like I have a very good idea of what's going on with Tesla (mainly thanks to this forum) and can make informed decisions and projections (even if they don't play out I can justify myself by saying I've made the best decision given the available data), while other stock is mostly WAG about the future.
You did a great job there. I’m too scared to trade, I just add.
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
This feels a lot to me like the spring of ‘16. X production was ramping, but no one believed them. Stock was in the crapper.
I posted the chart above from IHS/Markit (courtesy of Bloomberg) on April 13 showing that shorting had dramatically increased recently.
@ZachShahan at cleantechnica has obtained updated data from IHS/Markit showing that short interest now exceeds 40 million shares, up from about 28 million shares as of the official March 15 report.
This is a staggering increase in just a little over a month. Since Model 3 production is ramping up, Elon is predicting profitability in Q3 and Q4 and TSLA shorts have a terrible track record of increasing their short positions at the worst possible times, this is starting to get VERY interesting.
Tesla [TSLA] Now Really A Dramatically Shorted Stock (#CleanTechnica Exclusive) | CleanTechnica
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K_Dizzle
Member
Opinion: UAW part of anti-Tesla campaign • r/teslamotors
This comment was written in response to the UAW FUD speculation. I think he has a point, maybe we can get a kickstarter going in order raise enough funds to publish one or two major articles. I’d throw in a few bucks, heck if even donate time. But I’m not the best writer.
This comment was written in response to the UAW FUD speculation. I think he has a point, maybe we can get a kickstarter going in order raise enough funds to publish one or two major articles. I’d throw in a few bucks, heck if even donate time. But I’m not the best writer.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
The higher they rise, the harder they fall. These shorts are going to lose their shirts, pants, socks, and panties--within months.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
This would make a really good profile picture for you.
Agreed, but keep in mind it was well after (many months) the X ramp was entirely obvious to all bulls and anyone without their head in the sand before the stock price started to rise. So the timing of the stock reacting to positive news is extremely difficult to predict.
All in TSLA now with my speculative funds (I’m in my 60’s, so most of my assets are in fairly safe investments).
It is only since the drop to the $250s that I placed all my bets with TSLA.
Unless Musk is delusional (a distinct possibility), the next quarter is going to be THE major turning point of this young company: positive cash flow and profits. I don’t want to be on the sidelines with that so close, and the stock still on the low side of its 12-month trading range.
I have also invested $2.49 for a pail that I keep near my bed in case the volatility of the next several months upsets my stomach.
It is only since the drop to the $250s that I placed all my bets with TSLA.
Unless Musk is delusional (a distinct possibility), the next quarter is going to be THE major turning point of this young company: positive cash flow and profits. I don’t want to be on the sidelines with that so close, and the stock still on the low side of its 12-month trading range.
I have also invested $2.49 for a pail that I keep near my bed in case the volatility of the next several months upsets my stomach.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
I think after a ramp to 4,000/ week the next question will be cash. Elon did say that they don’t need a financing, however if they did add $1-$2B in Q2 or Q3 this risk would be removed.
At that point we would just be waiting on cash flow positive financials in Q3 or Q4 but without much downside risk given the extra cushion.
At that point we would just be waiting on cash flow positive financials in Q3 or Q4 but without much downside risk given the extra cushion.
S ramp was the same. I'm with you here.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
New Tesla Gigafactory 1 flyover shows new section underway, parking lot and solar rooftop array
<sarcasm>For a company that's going bankrupt and has no money left, there sure is a lot of construction going on.</sarcasm>.
<sarcasm>For a company that's going bankrupt and has no money left, there sure is a lot of construction going on.</sarcasm>.
Interesting that the short interest is higher than ever.
Is that because there’s something justifying unprecedented pessimism with Tesla right now that is escaping me, or because the only way the shorts can keep the stock price so low is doubling down on their bets?
If it’s the latter, they are playing a highly toxic game, that reeks of desperation.
Is that because there’s something justifying unprecedented pessimism with Tesla right now that is escaping me, or because the only way the shorts can keep the stock price so low is doubling down on their bets?
If it’s the latter, they are playing a highly toxic game, that reeks of desperation.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
The latter. I was at a casino blackjack table a few years ago and this guy on a business trip sat down next to me.
Played $1000 on a hand and instantly lost it. Laid another grand down and instantly lost it. Determined to get it back, he laid $2000 on the table. And lost it.
He walked away having lost $4000 in a matter of minutes. Shorts remind me of that dude right now.
Meanwhile, I played for an hour, made a few hundred bucks, and got a bunch of drinks out of it.
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