TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

[Jonathan Hewitt]

Is that because there’s something justifying unprecedented pessimism with Tesla right now that is escaping me, or because the only way the shorts can keep the stock price so low is doubling down on their bets?

If you only read the FUD that is EVERYWHERE right now wouldn't you short TSLA, too? I know I would (actually, I would notice the crazy high short interest, decide that it's a crowded trade, and stay away, but otherwise I would. A lot of people don't think this way, though. If everyone else is doing it, it must be a good trade, right? )

 

[Todd Burch]

The endless spiking followed by a rapid drop is continued evidence of shorts trying desperately to hold the price down.

Every day I watch this, I get more confident that a huge short squeeze is coming. Some idle Tuesday, Elon's going to drop a tweet that starts the avalanche.

 

[gene]

Interesting that the short interest is higher than ever.

Is that because there’s something justifying unprecedented pessimism with Tesla right now that is escaping me, or because the only way the shorts can keep the stock price so low is doubling down on their bets?

If it’s the latter, they are playing a highly toxic game, that reeks of desperation.

Maybe it is simply the Kochs, a few oil companies, and a few legacy auto makers all jumping in as shorts. Losing some money on a short gamble to them wouldn't matter as long as they keep Tesla from succeeding.

 

[Iceman]

Another good day in Norway: 54

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Interesting that the short interest is higher than ever.

Is that because there’s something justifying unprecedented pessimism with Tesla right now that is escaping me, or because the only way the shorts can keep the stock price so low is doubling down on their bets?

If it’s the latter, they are playing a highly toxic game, that reeks of desperation.

It's that 1Q18 is the quarter where short-term pessimism meets long-term optimism.

Long-term, by definition, will prevail.

 

[Iceman]

Does anyone here know of a map or an aerial photograph that show exactly what plots of land Tesla owns around the gigafactory?

 

[aubreymcfato]

Another good day in Norway: 54

Yep, and yesterday 47, for a total of 545 as of now. As I said in #7123, this a great non-last-month-of-a-Q, and the best first month ever. We don't know how many cars were in transit in Norway, but still, great numbers.

 

[Starno]

Macro plays a huge role as well lately.
If macro wouldn't have stalled since the start of the year, everything else being equal we would probably be around 310-320 right now.

 

[Yggdrasill]

New Tesla Gigafactory 1 flyover shows new section underway, parking lot and solar rooftop array

I'm not so sure that new area is a parking lot. I don't see why it would have to be perfectly flat just to park some cars there.

One possibility is that there might be a Model Y/Semi/Roadster factory going up there. Or it could be a parking garage. Or maybe they just want it to be flat so that it's ready for future uses. It's certainly something to keep an eye on, though.

 

[j0hn]

Does anyone here know of a map or an aerial photograph that show exactly what plots of land Tesla owns around the gigafactory?

Documents regarding Gigafactory

 

[EinSV]

I'm not so sure that new area is a parking lot. I don't see why it would have to be perfectly flat just to park some cars there.

One possibility is that there might be a Model Y/Semi/Roadster factory going up there. Or it could be a parking garage. Or maybe they just want it to be flat so that it's ready for future uses. It's certainly something to keep an eye on, though.

Would it be possible that this is the very early stages of the buildout to expand capacity for Model Y batteries/drivetrain?

Elon has estimated demand of Model Y could be 1M/year, which together with 500K/year Model 3 plus storage could use the full capacity of GF1 (1.5M x ~70 kWh average battery =105GWh plus storage).

GF expansion for Model 3 battery/drivetrain production seems to have been underway in early 2016, well before Model 3 production was scheduled to begin. Tesla Gigafactory Expansion Caught by Drone (Video)

 

[Mkorpal]

I'm not so sure that new area is a parking lot. I don't see why it would have to be perfectly flat just to park some cars there.

One possibility is that there might be a Model Y/Semi/Roadster factory going up there. Or it could be a parking garage. Or maybe they just want it to be flat so that it's ready for future uses. It's certainly something to keep an eye on, though.

I thought there were more recent images of asphalt being paved.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I thought there were more recent images of asphalt being paved.

The large swath of asphalt to the north is what many people suspect is the new parking lot. The small patch to the west at the south end is under question.

It looks too small to be parking lot comparing with the cars parked all along the west side of the building now, and the new paved area to the north. Also it appears to be separate from the existing building, and of a different shape/size vs all existing blocks that they've built. I haven't heard any good explanation why that is yet.
In 2020 the Tesla Gigafactory will produce three times the original plan of 35GWh per year worth of batteries | NextBigFuture.com

 

[Mkorpal]

The large swath of asphalt to the north is what many people suspect is the new parking lot. The small patch to the west at the south end is under question.
View attachment 296374

It looks too small to be parking lot comparing with the cars parked all along the west side of the building now, and the new paved area to the north. Also it appears to be separate from the existing building, and of a different shape/size vs all existing blocks that they've built. I haven't heard any good explanation why that is yet.
In 2020 the Tesla Gigafactory will produce three times the original plan of 35GWh per year worth of batteries | NextBigFuture.com

I thought the area to the north was in question.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I thought the area to the north was in question.

I was questioning the area to the north yes. If it's been paved, that's certainly an indication they'll be using it for parking (at least for the next few months/years), and will probably start to expand the Gigafactory, swallowing up some of the current parking. I can't say I can tell definitively from the satellite images.

The smaller area to the south is definitely construction-related. You can clearly see foundations in the drone video.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Regarding the area in the south - it could be a supercharger/megacharger with foundations for a roof. There is a fresh-looking slab of concrete right next to it with what seems to be transformers or something similar.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I was questioning the area to the north yes. If it's been paved, that's certainly an indication they'll be using it for parking (at least for the next few months/years), and will probably start to expand the Gigafactory, swallowing up some of the current parking. I can't say I can tell definitively from the satellite images.

The smaller area to the south is definitely construction-related. You can clearly see foundations in the drone video.

Tesla Gigafactory 1 new aerial pictures tease facility's possible expansion
It looks like half of it was paved at the time (article from 4/19)

 

[bdy0627]

Interesting that the short interest is higher than ever.

Is that because there’s something justifying unprecedented pessimism with Tesla right now that is escaping me, or because the only way the shorts can keep the stock price so low is doubling down on their bets?

If it’s the latter, they are playing a highly toxic game, that reeks of desperation.

I think we are rapidly approaching the level where everyone who wants to short the stock is short, and there is no one left to short it. That alone is going to make this stock difficult to bring down further and incredibly susceptible to rapidly increasing buying pressure. Any good news is going to make this pretty interesting. I'm in the process of converting much of my stock to calls now. Saving some powder in case of further drop though.

 

[sweter]

You did a great job there. I’m too scared to trade, I just add.

Thank you. It was mostly thanks to sheer dumb luck of riding SQ from $31 to $46...

 

[K_Dizzle]

I think we are rapidly approaching the level where everyone who wants to short the stock is short, and there is no one left to short it. That alone is going to make this stock difficult to bring down further and incredibly susceptible to rapidly increasing buying pressure. Any good news is going to make this pretty interesting. I'm in the process of converting much of my stock to calls now. Saving some powder in case of further drop though.

What calls are you looking at? I would like to take advantage of the leverage but I’m afraid of a further macro slide