I think Elon's sharing on twitter keeps things transparent and above board.
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If the email was leaked, it was never meant as a public disclosure vs what is shared on Twitter.
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Well, it is only worth while to sell puts against cash up until 100k since that's the amount covered by your brokerage on deposit insurance. So there's a limit to how much you can earn from that. That said, everyone should have a strategy doing exactly that with idle cash.
As for using margin cash to cover potential put exercise. Ya it is a good strategy. But I'd keep that for after a recession actually happens. The optimized strategy right now is probably to sell calls on international trade. Like shipping etc.
The SEC already ruled, some years ago, that Twitter was sufficiently wide distribution that it couldn't be considered market manipulation. Elon Musk created nearly $1B in value today with a single tweet (article from 2015, referring to a ruling from 2013).
I agree. I meant writing a false email intended to be leaked (which I don't think happened) would be market manipulation.
That's exactly what I was thinking and what I'd do if I was Elon. He can control time and the narrative for a number of things, and this is a good occassion. Thursday the 5th or Friday the 6th. They could hit 4.5K or 5K / wk by June the 29th or 30th and keep it running for 6 more days. Then release the numbers.
Welcome. Hope you are just a paid FUD man vs actually have a Short in tesla. Enjoy the nuanced nature of your posts. Exquisite.
Unless it was not false, but it was only keeping out some information/updates that were and are not 100% verified yet, but only 90%... When you write, there are so many ways you can fill the frame...
Actually, you're on to something, they'll probably be announced after the market closes on 7/3, so when the market opens in the US on 7/5, that will be the day of explosion.
Boom boom, out go the shorts!
sundaymorning
Active Member
I would be happy to see the reverse of last year's Fourth of July stock movement.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
I get what you're saying and there is truth in your words.
But think about context of this situation. If Elon hits the milestone (I doubt it) or overdeliver, you would need to argue: Elon needed to be more consistently optimistic. He wrote email where he used words: "radical change" and this was pessimistic and misleading.
Elon? Needs to be more optimistic?
I'd like to see anyone being able to pin it on Elon...So whether Elon is trying to play the game (I doubt it) or not, he's in position where he can actually, and safely do it. Part of that is his own weakness, no one trusts his optimism anymore, so it's enough to dial it down a notch, and bam, there is a bear trap (as bears interpret it according to their wishful thinking). Perhaps you should consider this risk, however small, in your thesis.
For the record, (as opposed to many members of this forum,) I don't think Elon spends time daydreaming traps for shorts. I think he's too busy with the real stuff, building cars and rockets, doing AI and tunnels, being a good dad and chasing eligible young starlets.
FYI, I posted this Elon tweet earlier and it may not have been noticed. The article to which he links contains one of the better descriptions of a short squeeze I've seen, along with a ton of other good pertinent information. Elon and I highly recommend it!
@elonmusk: Well said The War on Tesla, Musk, and the Fight for the Future
m.twitter.com/elonmusk
@elonmusk: Well said The War on Tesla, Musk, and the Fight for the Future
m.twitter.com/elonmusk
Agree with most of this - I was just disagreeing with someone up-thread who thought the email was a "play".I get what you're saying and there is truth in your words.
But think about context of this situation. If Elon hits the milestone (I doubt it) or overdeliver, you would need to argue: Elon needed to be more consistently optimistic. He wrote email where he used words: "radical change" and this was pessimistic and misleading.
Elon? Needs to be more optimistic?
So whether Elon is trying to play the game (I doubt it) or not, he's in position where he can actually, and safely do it. Part of that is his own weakness, no one trusts his optimism anymore, so it's enough to dial it down a notch, and bam, there is a bear trap (as bears interpret it according to their wishful thinking). Perhaps you should consider this risk, however small, in your thesis.
For the record, (as opposed to many members of this forum,) I don't think Elon spends time daydreaming traps for shorts. I think he's too busy with the real stuff, building cars and rockets, doing AI and tunnels, being a good dad and chasing eligible young starlets.
Oooohh, burn!
It appears as though Elon has deliberately chosen this to be his final tweet of today's extended series, which would have the effect of making its message more emphatic.
Someone should tell the shorts that Jim Cramer himself thinks they are idiots.
"That's a fool's game. You never short while it's going up. Never. That is a recipe for putting your fund out of business. You have to wait until the chinks [in the armor] are evidence to the longs. You cannot anticipate the chinks. You will be right once and wiped out four times."
"That's a fool's game. You never short while it's going up. Never. That is a recipe for putting your fund out of business. You have to wait until the chinks [in the armor] are evidence to the longs. You cannot anticipate the chinks. You will be right once and wiped out four times."
I'll assume Elon's tweet is Elon time but I'm a long-term holder anyway.
My current belief regarding the GA situation is that they'll be well over 5000/week very soon and have a clear path to 10000/week (by line duplication) within three weeks. I suspect some other things have to be doubled to get to 10000; it sounds like the body line is just barely cracking 5000/week, and I'm sure there's other stuff which is well over 5000 but under 10000, but I think they will probably have a clear path to 10000 by the end of July.
I am a bit worried that the paint shop will be stuck at something like 4500; in which case I expect they'll just add new paint shop and go straight for 10000, but that may take more than 3 weeks. Six weeks perhaps? They have to get permits for that due to paint emissions, though I believe new booths can probably reduce the incremental emissions even below what they're currently doing, and they probably already have that planned.
I suspect pretty much all capex is going to be directed towards the 10K push for the next six months. They're not putting the money into service center expansion; this will *need* to happen but I think they're putting it off until next year. Superchargers will keep expanding because they are, relatively speaking, cheap and have a pipeline.
but I'm a long-term holder anyway.My current belief regarding the GA situation is that they'll be well over 5000/week very soon and have a clear path to 10000/week (by line duplication) within three weeks. I suspect some other things have to be doubled to get to 10000; it sounds like the body line is just barely cracking 5000/week, and I'm sure there's other stuff which is well over 5000 but under 10000, but I think they will probably have a clear path to 10000 by the end of July.
I am a bit worried that the paint shop will be stuck at something like 4500; in which case I expect they'll just add new paint shop and go straight for 10000, but that may take more than 3 weeks. Six weeks perhaps? They have to get permits for that due to paint emissions, though I believe new booths can probably reduce the incremental emissions even below what they're currently doing, and they probably already have that planned.
I suspect pretty much all capex is going to be directed towards the 10K push for the next six months. They're not putting the money into service center expansion; this will *need* to happen but I think they're putting it off until next year. Superchargers will keep expanding because they are, relatively speaking, cheap and have a pipeline.
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