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The Dems have again set themselves up by fielding a likely, but not strongest candidate with sincere popular support. It's deja vu 2016 all over again. (I know, reredundent.) What about Newsom as a surprise compromiser? Lots of experience as an executive. Much more so than a v.p. A lot more than Obama! who got snookered by the brilliance of Larry Summers. And even better, Newsom probably doesn't want it because it's a safer bet later.

Y'all know I'm in favor of the draft.

You silicon valley guys should mobilize about Newsom. I can see the posters now. "Newsom/Warren, don't worry about it, we've got you covered." "Democracy for all of us, not Populism for the few," "Newsom from California, where oranges are a fruit," "Covid-19, a perfect disease for Trump," "Putin Loves Trump," "Vote again for Russia, Re-elect Trump," "Remember when the doctors were always right?," "Bring sanity back to politics without hate." Some of these are ambiguous but still.... Give us your ten minute version.
 

From that article...
Pence continued, “as we continue to practice social distancing and states engage in safe and responsible reopening plans, I truly believe — and the trend lines support it — that we could be in a very different place” by late May or early June.

I think he has a different viewpoint of what May and June might look like when things slowly open up.

I’m interested in whether Trump continues to blame China, putting the stock market at unease.
 
I think he has a different viewpoint of what May and June might look like when things slowly open up.

I’m interested in whether Trump continues to blame China, putting the stock market at unease.

Certainly agree. Pence may assume it is "slowly opening up" but not in Georgia and elsewhere.

Are mainstream industrialists really concerned about Trump's animus toward China? Joe Sixpack I can understand, although the more thoughtful might be equally concerned about their idiot managers/owners who can't compete with sharper Chinese business people.

Of course the Chinese have a variety of discriminatory trade practices, so did we at a similar stage of development. That may be settled by the next administration, but not now. Meanwhile, Tesla has shown the way for others when aligned with China's interests.
 
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The draft never prevented any war, just provided unwilling fodder. As a kid during Vietnam there was a lingering worry that I'd grow up and be sent to die in Vietnam for no reason. Luckily for me it ended before that, too many were not so lucky.

War should always be unpopular for a large, powerful country like ours. (But then I have a global bias for humanity.) Besides, a fair draft of everyone (including women) shares the burden of citizenship. Going back to that time, would you have felt differently if girls faced the same obligation? I don't think I would. I initially filed as a conscientious objector but the draft board told my dad who blew his stack and I did "the right thing." I went on to get an "A" in drill for ROTC at MIT because I was a good dancer.

I now know I could kill someone. Don't ask me why I know.

A few students in those years said in my classes they'd rather die in a nuclear war than rot in some faraway jungle. I was smart enough not to respond. My father died in the jungles of Surinam, but of a heart attack. That's what three packs a day of Camels can do for you.
 
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No that wouldn't have made me feel any better about being sent off to die.

A former student, now a colleague, teaching a ROTC class asked me to talk years ago. I remember mentioning a British general who said something like, the unique point of a military career is to die for your country. (The way he said it made more sense than this memory.) The cadets didn't like that.
 
A similar argument was used in the Harvey Weinstein case. Of course, this doesn't mean that this behavior should be completely dismissed when evaluating this case.

Throughout history victims of sexual assault who were dependent in some way to a more powerful abuser would sometimes consent to some kind of relationship later and even speak positively about the dear leader. Sometimes they meant it in a sort of Stockholm Syndrome scenario.

Tara Reade was no beholden to Biden in any way after she left her job as a Senate aide.

Not sure about the 'up until a month ago'. Several months ago she alluded on Twitter that when she first came out she did not tell her whole story (I cannot find the tweet currently, unfortunately). Also she tried to get help from Time's Up, as well as the Warren and Harris campaign (I'm not finding the timestamp, unfortunately, but it's confirmed here). All three of those did not support her request for help.

It also appeared she went on Dr Phil in 2019 claiming Vladamir Putin was in love with her
Thread by @blakesmustache: Thread: Is Tara Reade “Jennifer” who appeared on the Dr. Phil Show in late 2019 claiming Putin was in love with her and that she was getting…

She also claimed she would be coming forward with something that would help Putin.


Indeed, the timing is weird and it should definitely be further examined! However, the blog post before the edits does not diminish her assault allegations.

It is possible she was lying before, but with the preponderance of other evidence, her story is sketchy. I can't find it now, my SO came across something written by someone who knew Reade in the 90s. At the time Reade had a scuzzy boyfriend that the writer did not like at all. At the time Reade told her friend that her boyfriend had assaulted her exactly the way she now claims Biden did.

When I read her account, she was describing the acts of a practiced sexual predator. The moves are those of someone who has done that many times before and knows exactly what he's doing. Biden has been a public figure for 50 years and this is the only story of a sexual assault I've ever heard. I heard creepy stories about Harvey Weinstein and Bill Cosby years before there were any court cases and many stories started coming forward about Trump and Brett Kavanaugh when they became political news. There were many of them and they were consistent.

Thus far Tara Reade is the only story about Biden and her description is that of someone very practiced. So in this "me too" era, where are the other allegation?

That's not exactly true, she was an Elizabeth Warren supporter (13:30 in the video). Only once the options were Bernie vs. Biden was when she supported Bernie.

OK, but it does appear she was looking for a more liberal candidate than Biden.

She said that she got into the Russian history and culture of the 70's and 80's (18:10 in the video) and now calls her blog post miss-informed (18:50 in the video).

It appears she went on Dr Phil with a story of having a love affair with Putin. (see link above)

Again, I'm not saying that this part of her history carries no weight but what I'm advocating for is that both person's histories should be examined! If a weird blog post about Putin is somehow relevant to the argument, then I think Biden's history should also be considered.

In particular, Biden's absurd history of outrageous lies. He lied about his academic record and plagiarized speeches which was literally the reason he dropped out of his first presidential campaign. He lied about the death of his wife and daughter saying that the truck driver was driving under the influence. So not only did the driver have to deal with the traumatic experience of the accident, he also had to experience Biden publicly telling lies about him. In the current campaign, he lied about being arrested while seeing Nelson Mandela and that Mandela personally thanked him. This is particularly concerning because Biden played the exact opposite role during the Civil Rights era. There are many other lies that I did not mention here.

Biden has been known to make things up and exaggerate, but I'm not really listening to him much in this case. The accused is highly likely to claim innocence whether they are guilty or innocent. I'm looking at the other evidence.

Also, the comment did not include mentions about any corroborating evidence such as Reade's mother calling Larry King to talk about Tara having a problem with the senator; friends, her brother, and her former neighbor saying that she told them about the incident. And former interns confirming her story that she suddenly was removed from her position as managing the interns.

I have seen the Larry King clip. It may or may not be Tara Reade's mother and all she says is that her daughter has an issue with a US Senator. And I believe she claims the incident happened in the late summer of 1993, which was just before her internship ended, which would be a reason to be removed from that position.

Her allegations of retaliation may or may not have happened, but it's currently impossible to prove.

No one of us would enjoy being in the position of Tara Reade or Christine Blasey Ford. For instance, Tara Reade's social security number got leaked and she is receiving death threats.

There are always nutters out there attacking people, and that's wrong. Nobody should ever be subject of attack for coming forward. The merits of the case should be weighed and decided on the merits.

I do not know myself what to believe, yet. I understand the frustration and the arguments on both sides. Of course I have my own political ideology and it is extremely hard to remove this ideology when talking about such sensitive and important topics.

Lastly, I'm not advocating that no one is allowed to vote for Biden because of this. If someone says that they believe Reade and will still support Biden to note enable Trump, this is a perfectly logical position. So is the position, after applying the same standards as with Kavanaugh, to say that the current data is not sufficient to not believe Biden.

Years ago I heard the mantra on a radio show: have an open, but not gaping mind. Tara Reade strikes me as someone who has been victim of sexual assault, but I don't see strong evidence that Biden did anything more than his usual overly touchy feely thing.

With very rare exceptions people's behavior follows predictable patterns. Even people with rare conditions like a severe personality disorder or a violent psychopath serial killer have patterns to their behavior.

Sexual assault tends to fall into patterns too. Some men may have one or a few sexual assaults when they are young and possibly abusing some kind of drug (including alcohol), but they stop as they grow older. Brett Kavanaugh appears to fit this pattern. There are multiple stories about assaults he did as a teen and into his 20s, but they stop at that point.

Then there are men who have a lifelong pattern like Harvey Weinstein, Jeffrey Epstein, Bill Cosby, and Donald Trump. These men started early, and continued throughout most of their lives. All of them had stories about their assaults circulating for years before anything came forward. In each of these cases victims have come forward with consistent stories that don't have holes.

Tara Reade's story has changed over the years, which could be due to being afraid to come forward with the full story earlier, but it could also be due to her making parts of it up. She describes the acts of a practiced sexual predator, yet there are no other similar stories about Biden out there.

I take every story of sexual assault seriously and I think every story should get a fair hearing. But that doesn't mean every story is true.

The Dems have again set themselves up by fielding a likely, but not strongest candidate with sincere popular support. It's deja vu 2016 all over again. (I know, reredundent.) What about Newsom as a surprise compromiser? Lots of experience as an executive. Much more so than a v.p. A lot more than Obama! who got snookered by the brilliance of Larry Summers. And even better, Newsom probably doesn't want it because it's a safer bet later.

Y'all know I'm in favor of the draft.

You silicon valley guys should mobilize about Newsom. I can see the posters now. "Newsom/Warren, don't worry about it, we've got you covered." "Democracy for all of us, not Populism for the few," "Newsom from California, where oranges are a fruit," "Covid-19, a perfect disease for Trump," "Putin Loves Trump," "Vote again for Russia, Re-elect Trump," "Remember when the doctors were always right?," "Bring sanity back to politics without hate." Some of these are ambiguous but still.... Give us your ten minute version.

I don't think it's a good idea to nominate any sitting governor right now. Newsom is bogged down 100% with COVID-19 and he shouldn't be distracted from that. Andrew Cuomo said as much when he was asked about the nomination.

The fact of the matter is there is no perfect Democrat eligible this year.

A former student, now a colleague, teaching a ROTC class asked me to talk years ago. I remember mentioning a British general who said something like, the unique point of a military career is to die for your country. (The way he said it made more sense than this memory.) The cadets didn't like that.

This is one of those things that for most people is so deeply ingrained they have never thought about it and I usually catch flak for bringing it up, but I've never quite understood blind patriotism. I can understand the desire to protect your home from attack and that can be expanded to the larger context of the country you live in. But if your country really isn't at risk, why die for it?

Of course the powers that be don't want people to think about that too much because it would make it more difficult to get young people to go out there and die for whatever cause the country is going to war for today.
 
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upload_2020-5-6_20-58-21.png


Let me guess, ICE did not give them soap either. Very sad.
 
I've changed my mind about Newsom after stumbling on this earlier today. Cuomo is actually doing what a president should using the data and resources (personnel) of his state. I'm not sure Newsom is doing so.

Watch live: New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo holds a press conference on the coronavirus outbreak

Edit: wrong video. I'm looking for his re-imagining New York, here's some criticism:

Andrew Cuomo is leaning on tech billionaires to help New York rebuild

Just a word to the wise, be careful of the grass is always greener. Every human being has clay feet and the Republican slime machine will find it. Trump is doing an effective job of destroying himself and Trump's enemies are making hay of every stumble including Biden. Biden is putting few ads on the air right now, but his campaign is making plenty of them that are going up on the internet and some are getting airtime on news programs.

Biden was one of the few candidates who made it clear he knew what this election was about from the start, it's an initiative on Trump and everything else is secondary.

I came across this when I was searching for something else
[Running Against the Devil] | C-SPAN.org

This is from January, so it's a little out of date, but Wilson is telling anyone who will listen how the Republicans play the game. I recommend it.
 
Just a word to the wise, be careful of the grass is always greener. Every human being has clay feet and the Republican slime machine will find it. Trump is doing an effective job of destroying himself and Trump's enemies are making hay of every stumble including Biden. Biden is putting few ads on the air right now, but his campaign is making plenty of them that are going up on the internet and some are getting airtime on news programs.

Biden was one of the few candidates who made it clear he knew what this election was about from the start, it's an initiative on Trump and everything else is secondary.

I came across this when I was searching for something else
[Running Against the Devil] | C-SPAN.org

This is from January, so it's a little out of date, but Wilson is telling anyone who will listen how the Republicans play the game. I recommend it.

I've liked his appearances on CNN for some time. Love his sense of humor. Haven't time for books anymore.
 
Thanks for guiding me toward the truth there is a difference between governing where policy issues are relevant and a campaign where voter preferences are of major concern. The latter is probably because I'm at root a foreign policy/government teacher. In our department there was little daily interaction among our specialties. The international guys were in agreement, usually, so we had similar perceptions of reality. At election times I would ask advice and counsel from the domestic folk, especially concerning ballot initiatives. In my experience we were much more progressive in our politics than the domestic guys. That was confirmed in writing a book with one of them.

On the policy scale, I cannot abide Biden. At every stage of his career he took the mainstream approach so was a consummate follower, never a leader. Also, I don't think of him as a campaign innovator, like Kennedy, who pioneered the primary route. I could go with Inslee or any other relatively progressive type. I remain most impressed with Cuomo. Sure he deals with billionaires, but the initiators of the Green New Deal, which should feature greatly in the Party platform, are scrupulous in scouring the gamut of those affected. Also, on the campaign scale, he certainly explains his positions in an accessible way. And, he has a good Italian spine. Trump would never debate him.

I like governors who may be better managers when it's clean up time.

Thanks for making me think a lot.
 
Thanks for guiding me toward the truth there is a difference between governing where policy issues are relevant and a campaign where voter preferences are of major concern. The latter is probably because I'm at root a foreign policy/government teacher. In our department there was little daily interaction among our specialties. The international guys were in agreement, usually, so we had similar perceptions of reality. At election times I would ask advice and counsel from the domestic folk, especially concerning ballot initiatives. In my experience we were much more progressive in our politics than the domestic guys. That was confirmed in writing a book with one of them.

On the policy scale, I cannot abide Biden. At every stage of his career he took the mainstream approach so was a consummate follower, never a leader. Also, I don't think of him as a campaign innovator, like Kennedy, who pioneered the primary route. I could go with Inslee or any other relatively progressive type. I remain most impressed with Cuomo. Sure he deals with billionaires, but the initiators of the Green New Deal, which should feature greatly in the Party platform, are scrupulous in scouring the gamut of those affected. Also, on the campaign scale, he certainly explains his positions in an accessible way. And, he has a good Italian spine. Trump would never debate him.

I like governors who may be better managers when it's clean up time.

Thanks for making me think a lot.

A very common route to the presidency has been through a governorship. GW went that route.

I am concerned with policy, but I probably put more weight on what is possible as opposed to chasing ideals. When it comes to a general election I'm also a pragmatist looking at the politics more than the policy. The way things are today policy debate was mostly in the primary, we know how the two parties are going to govern. The choice boils down to half a loaf of what you want vs nothing you want. That's true in almost every race these days.

I am an idealist by nature, but a realist by life experience. We have been living in a party system where the Reagan Republican memes are what everyone has to deal with. That's been the group think of the last 40 years.

It fell apart in 2008, but the conservative propaganda arm managed to resuscitate it for another 12 years. But it's clearly dying now and dying in a dramatic way. The last party system spent about a decade in its death throws too. The country was feeling the New Deal was coming to an end around 1968. Southern whites were unhappy about the civil rights movement and quite a few others were angry about Vietnam. The Democratic coalition that put the Democrats in the ascendancy fell apart. The Republicans were unable to capitalize on it until 1980 in large part because their guy in the White House from 1969 to 1974 disgraced himself.

We now have one party with no ideas who are experts at playing down and dirty politics to get elected, but once elected they are like the dog that caught the car. On the other side is a party loaded with ideas that manages to shoot itself in the foot at election time.

When party systems change, the coalition mix changes too. The Republican coalition for the last 40 years has been Southern and Appalachian whites, conservative Christians, and rural and suburban whites from around the country. There is overlap between groups too. The interior west is largely rural whites, so they have done well in those states too.

Over the last decade the suburbs have become less white and more millennials are buying houses and having kids in the burbs. As they grow up the millennials are beginning to vote for the first time and they are voting Democrat. We saw that in 2018 and it will continue in 2020.

Right now the rest of the Republican coalition is entrenched and not going anywhere, but we have a two pronged crisis (health and economics) that is being wildly mismanaged by Republicans. IMO, so far the Republicans, in part driven by conservative religious people who think this pandemic is only going to affect the "heathen", and also driven by racism because this has affected brown people more than white. In the end, they are happy this has mostly affected Democratic voters and they seem to have magical thinking that it's going to stay this way.

They are wrong and it's going to come back to bite them. This drive to open the country back up is an attempt on their part to kill more Democrats and get their base back to earning an income. We'll see the tune change when this starts ripping through largely Republican populations. But at that point it will be too late.

The order to keep meat plants open is going to infect large swaths of the interior states. The open up orders in some states will spread this everywhere in those states too. The populations that do best with COVID-19 are the young and those in good overall health. There are exceptions, but the bulk of severe cases are in the old and those with underlying health problems. Those populations already have more Democrats than Republicans. People with higher educations tend to live healthier lifestyles than those who don't and in the era of Trump the higher a person's education level, the more likely they are to be pro-Democrat these days.

Once COVID takes root in the Republican base, it's going to go to town. And those people are in for a shock that it hit their population and it might get some of them thinking again. When people are locked into some kind of addictive or cult mindset, some kind of major setback that shows how destructive their choices are has a chance to jar them out of their old thought patterns. In the addiction world it's called hitting rock bottom.

I know some people who grew up in conservative religious (not just a Christian thing) worlds and something happened to break the spell and they saw the tortured thinking that justified the crazier aspects of their world then they got out and worked on rebuilding their world. People who leave cults often have a similar wake up call. A girlfriend I had many years ago got sucked into a mini-cult a few years after we broke up. When she began to wake up she went to the police and the cult leader ended up in prison.

We may see some people from the Republican cult wake up when hit with COVID among themselves, their friends, and families. Though it's impossible to predict when someone is going to snap out of their cult thinking and what's going to do it. This is the sort of thing that can serve as a catalyst though.

If it does happen in any significant way, the Republican coalition will shatter. A lot will not go Democrat, but they will either stay home or vote third party.
 
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As usual, you're probably right. We're gambling in a game of deathstakes. As with global warming, nature will win.
In case you have never read it, an article on 6 survivors of Hiroshima
Growing up in the 1950’s and 60’s, I knew my fate was to be a shadow burnt into a wall from the ‘blast flash’, just not when
Hiroshima
 
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I grew up in the 70s and 80s and we still had nuclear drills in elementary school. The rhetoric increased in the 1980s with Reagan, but the drills stopped. A lot of my classmates thought we were going to be dragged into another war and we would be drafted. With my bad knees I probably would have been 4F or 1Y (only drafted when scraping the bottom of the barrel), but we were concerned.

Even though I was born more than 20 years after the war, my father was in it from early on. He graduated high school in 1938 and his cadre were the first ones drafted. Every one of his classmates who went into the 8th AF in Europe were killed. Another of his classmates became one of the Navy's top fighter pilots, Ira Kepford. My father applied for pilot training, but didn't quite have perfect eyesight so he went into his second choice which was the Signal Corps as a photographer. He made training films for a while until they sent him out to the Pacific to gather footage for a USAAF movie that never happened.

He also did other top secret photo missions including a project to film the bomb run to every target in Japan to show navigators on future missions. He spent many hours in a photo recon B-29 flying over every city in range of the B-29s.

At the end of the war he was flying out of Attu at the end of the Aleutian chain. He believes the nuclear weapons dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki saved his life. The planned invasion of Japan in the fall of 1945 was expected to cost 1 million Allied casualties. The Pentagon ordered a large batch of Purple Hearts for the invasion and it was so many they are still giving them out today. It was also expected that 1/3 to 1/2 of Japan's civilian population would die.

Harry Truman when he made the decision, nobody knew what the long term ramifications of nuclear weapons would be. What he did know was the invasion of Japan was going to be the most costly to date and while the US was still able to keep its army at full strength, the limit of US manpower was near and most of the Commonwealth and UK was past the limit. Near the end of fighting in Europe the British army was dissolving combat units to get replacements for other units. And the Russians had already suffered staggering losses against the Germans.

Knowing what he did then, Truman made the right choice and it pushed Japan over the edge into surrender.

What we learned about the long term consequences of nuclear weapons after the war probably helped prevent a nuclear war since. We may be more at risk now for someone to use nukes than at any time since 1945. Trump has shut up about dropping nukes on people, but he was advocating using them back in 2016. The last of the people who have first hand knowledge of the horrors of nuclear weapons are almost gone.

Some of the world leaders lack the imagination to realize how bad it would be. Ronald Reagan was very pro-nuke until he saw an ABC mini-series about what it would be like in the immediate aftermath of a nuclear war. Right after that he started talking to the USSR about new arms reduction treaties. From what I heard he spent several days walking around the White House in shock after watching the mini-series. Reagan had been around when the first nukes were used. The current president wasn't and he is less imaginative than Reagan. He also has the conscience of a psychopath where Reagan did have some human compassion.
 
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Harry Truman when he made the decision, nobody knew what the long term ramifications of nuclear weapons would be.

As usual, a nice piece. I'm glad you're Dad survived the war and you have just pride in his service. Further, his worries were clearly justified, but there were people in the know who disagreed on the bomb's use.

The Russians transmitted to the US government on many occasions the Japanese were willing to talk peace. Truman's assistant, William C. Grew, our ambassador to Japan at the time of the Pearl Harbor attack, urged negotiations but we would have to accept the institution of the Emperor which came into conflict with the unconditional surrender doctrine. (That doctrine was consistently opposed by our military brass and was proclaimed by FDR because we had made a half-assed promise to Stalin to open a cross channel attack in 1942. He was trying to assure Stalin we would stay in the war. It was never completed.) Hanson W. Baldwin, a long time military journalist for the NYT included this missed opportunity in his book as one of The Great Mistakes of the War. The official State Department histories of wartime diplomacy by Herbert Feis include details by the scientists at Las Alamos to pressure Truman not to use the bomb. PMS Blackett in Fear, War, and the Bomb was one of them. A later great read and perhaps the best account of its subject is by Richard Rhodes, The Making of the Atomic Bomb in which, for me, there is news and detail about UK scientists responsible for triggering FDR's start of the Manhattan project, not to the popular version of Einstein/Bohr/FDR meeting.

Sorry for this screed. You probably now know much more than you wanted to know. Again, "The Owl of Minerva takes flight only at dusk."
 
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