There is a vast split between the younger generations and older generations in this country. I try to take into account that older generations always think the young are the end of everything and we've managed to muddle through, but this time there may actually be a very deep generational rift, at least in politics..
I heard an interview many years ago with an author who had written a book on generational attitudes and he pointed out that each generation tries to fix what they perceive their parents and grandparents got wrong. For a Boomer or GenX liking their parent's or grand parent's music would be considered weird, but it's very common among The Millennials and younger because swing music is generally not considered as good as rock and it's variations. The younger generations don't have any issues with their parent's music. Where they have problems is with the lack of community among GenX and Boomers as well as the early GenX political views which locked in during the Reagan era.
But all that said, the over 40s are far more reliable voters. Getting the under 40s involved is a great idea, but it could lead to frustration while you can pretty much guarantee that a high percentage of the over 40s will vote. If they hate your candidate, you could be in trouble unless you can pull off a unicorn election and get a massive turn out of the under 40s.
Dems tried choosing the nominee who "would" win last time...
The Dems last time treated the nomination process as more of a coronation than a real process to pick the best candidate. A lot of other qualified Dems sat out that process figuring that Hillary was going to be the nominee and with the changing demographics, would easily win the election. It was the same dynamic of the rabbit and the tortoise. Hillary was massively qualified vs a newby reality TV star aiming at a shrinking demographic.
Since the 1980s the white share of each presidential election has declined by 2% (0.5% per year average). Common wisdom said that the 2012 election was the last time a Republican candidate would have a shot at winning with a predominantly white targeted candidacy. That's one reason why a lot of non-white Republicans jumped into the 2016 fray. They thought it might be their year.
Between Trump getting some whites who had given up voting to come out, the low popularity of Hillary, and other factors like Russian interference, Trump managed to pull off an improbable win.
What makes you so certain the other candidates would lose to Trump? Only a little over 1/3 of registered voters voted for Trump. I imagine that some of those won't be voting for him again. Do we really need a candidate that appeals to the establishment to win? Or do we simply need a candidate that appeals to human decency (universal healthcare, fighting climate change, removing corporate influence in politics, etc)?
What we need is a candidate who will appeal to the center and the right of center disgusted with Trump. I watch the match up polls between Trump and other Democratic candidates, especially in states Trump absolutely needs to win. Biden polls the best in those states. In some of the more liberal states Biden still wins, but other Democrats do well too. But just winning the blue states is not enough. Biden could take some red states away from the Republicans like Texas and Arizona.
A big win would give the Democrats the political capital they need to start fixing things.
My philosophy is to not let the perfect become the enemy of the good and I see that happening among many on the left these days. There are a lot of progressives who want massive, sweeping improvements to everything. The middle of the electorate just want the madness to end. A massive swing the other way too quickly will traumatize them too much and who knows how they will vote.
Rick Wilson who was a Republican strategist for many years has made the argument that Kamala Harris would win 7 states. I think he's exaggerating, but she would have difficulty breaking out of the guaranteed blue state pocket. Inslee is my governor, but I think his running for president is a mistake. He's polling near 0% and he's likely going to stay there.
Having ideas that go beyond dealing with the political mess created by Trump is very important, but making your campaign all about an issue that ranks down the list for many voters is a losing strategy. According to Gallup polling, the two biggest issues are Government/Poor Leaderhip and Immigration:
Most Important Problem
I think it's far fetched to imagine many who supported Sanders (for whatever reason) turned around and voted for Trump instead of Clinton.
Doubtless there were some who in disgust just didn't vote. Now that the country has seen what Trump really is and what he has done, in 2020, left leaning progressives will absolutely hold their noses and vote for anyone the Dems run against Trump. They do need to run a candidate who can effectively counter Trump attacks, lies and distractions. Hiring Justin Amash for some mentoring in that department would be money well spent.
There are a fair number of Republicans and right leaning independents who will be willing to vote for a Democrat for the first time, but they want someone they consider "safe". IMO that's why Biden is polling so well in some red states.
Ultimately the terrifying thing is that nobody knows for sure what the best strategy for turfing out Trump really is. I go with what hard data is available (polling), but it's incomplete and it's too early to make definitive calls based on polls alone.
I personally like some of the other Democrats over Biden. While my father could out hike me at 80 and he's still plugging along at 99 (though a bad knee ended his hiking days many years ago), Biden and Trump are both in the age range where someone could seem completely healthy one day and have a serious health crisis the next. I've seen a number of my parent's contemporaries quite active one day and either dead or in seriously poor health a few weeks later.
Because of this, there is a better than average chance Trump may not be the Republican candidate in 2020. Overall I think Biden's health is better. He takes care of himself better than Trump.
The US has the different party systems that switch every 30-50 years and the US is ripe for another one. At the end of a party system cycle there is a sense the old ideas are stale and not working anymore and people are ripe for something new, a new direction. That's happening in the US. The midterm elections were not only a rebuke of Trump, but also a sign of that thirst for change.
If the trend continues, the next Congress will likely be more progressive than this one. Biden is a moderate, but he will likely go along with a Congress that's more liberal than what he's used to. His political career started during the unraveling of the New Deal party system and the bulk of it was during the conservative Reagan party system. He had to adopt to more conservative ideals because that's the way the political winds were blowing. But he also has evolved with the time. He embraced same sex marriage quite quickly and he says he now regrets some of his more conservative moves in the past.
But the terrifying thing is nobody knows what will happen in 2020 and what the best combination is for the best possible outcome. The US would be in a very bad situation with 4 more years of Republican rule (even if it was president Pence). It's terrifying to try and map out the best possible strategy when the stakes are sky high and there are a lot of variables that are guess work and others completely out of your control.
