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Newly release video all but confirmed a missile went up and shot down the jet liner. #RIP
The immediately prior thread that read #45 would never relinquish the Presidency. Apologies for the gaffe in posting etiquette.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Nixon only resigned when the Republican senators went and told him there was vote to convict him in the Senate.
Under similar circumstances, if R senators were to go and Tell Trump they have the vote to convict him - I'm sure he will do something crazy.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
There used to be free instate tuition. That is not what drove tuition inflation but state governments gradually reducing investments in education (because of tax cuts, mostly).
You didn't read the article. Easy student loans drove tuition higher. It's simple supply and demand.
Even Joe Biden knows it.
Biden Admits Government Subsidies Have Increased College Tuition | RealClearPolitics
"Biden: By the way, government subsidies have impacted upon rising tuition costs."
"printing money" these days means fiscal policy that makes it easier to borrow money and deficit spending by the government. Most of the deficit spending is being wasted on the military. The US has a vastly over bloated military with more weapons than even the Pentagon wants.
The economy is not booming. It's doing OK despite all the monkey wrenches Trump has thrown at it, but it's not booming. There are also a lot of signs the economy will likely turn south this year.
As for the 2020 election, Trump only gets re-elected if the Democrats shoot themselves in the foot. Rachel Bitecofer is a fairly new face in the political predicting game, but she was amazingly accurate about the 2018 elections and she claims to have refined her model even further. This is her starting prediction for the 2020 presidential election:
Wason Center electoral college map
In most polls of presidential approval, at least 50% of registered voters say they will not vote for Trump for any reason. Also in an election with an incumbent, it's always an initiative on the incumbent. Voters think about whether the incumbent should be re-elected or not. If they feel they should, decision done, they don't look at the challengers and there is a low chance of unseating them. If a lot of voters say "no" to the question of re-electing the incumbent, it becomes a real race.
Unless there is some sort of mitigating circumstance, most presidents get a percentage of the vote almost equal to their approval rating on election day. Trump is the first president since polling began who has never cracked 50% and he often polls in the low 40s. If he gets around 42% of the vote on election day, he's toast and it will likely be a landslide in the electoral college.
The Lincoln Project is a PAC started by Steve Schmidt, George Conway, and Rick Wilson. All are top notch campaign operatives who used to work for Republicans. They are dedicated in 2020 to defeating Trump. They are running ads now in battleground states. If the never Trumper Republicans can get a moderate Republican to run as an independent, it will further hurt Trump and open the door for the Democrats to win.
I'm also convinced we're at the end of a party system. The US has political cycles that last about 30-50 years. They always start with a charismatic president who sets the tone for the next generation. The political lingo on both sides of the aisle have to be crafted to the political memes of the era. The presidents who started party systems are: George Washington, Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt, and Ronald Reagan.
The party system started by Teddy Roosevelt was unique. It was the only time the other party didn't take control and it was the only time the old one didn't end with a one term presidency by the outgoing party. At the beginning of a party system there is a feeling that new things are possible again and a general sense of optimism (Reagan ran for re-election on the "new day in America" campaign). The end of a party system is marked with a feeling that everything is falling apart and nothing works anymore. The old ideas have run their course and become stale.
2008 should have been the start of the new party system. We had that feeling about Bush and the Republicans, but Fox news and the rest of the conservative media breathed enough life into the course of Reagan to keep the party system going a little longer. But it was at the cost of opening the door for someone like Trump to walk in. Conservative media has succeeded by selling itself directly to their base and infecting the rest of the media with enough self doubt to force them into the false equivalence. It made many news outlets bend over backwards trying to present Trump and Clinton on equal terms when they really should have been reporting the legion of problems with Trump and his candidacy.
That spell is broken now and the media outside the right wing are reporting Trump straight up. 2020 is not going to be reported like 2016 in the non-conservative media. In primaries the base matters, but not in the general election. Virtually all the base is going to vote for the party's nominee, so it doesn't matter much. The key are those in the middle and those in the middle don't tend to pay much attention to extreme news sources. They watch/listen/read more mainstream news sources.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
They won't. Nuff said. They have lined up behind him in support, for better or worse. Rumor is a few dem senators will probably vote against removing Trump from office too.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
No doubt - I was just saying, even if we get a similar situation as with Nixon, Trump may not resign.
BTW, I've to say, Trump is anything but consistent - esp. his FP. He is an isolationist at times, belligerent at times .., similarly when he lost Iowa he was meek and gave a decent speech. I guess it depends on his mood - angry or depressed, if something like the above were to happen - the chances of it as of now are next to nil.
With all dictators/leaders, this is what happens. They look absolutely invincible, until they are overthrown - when they look ridiculously powerless. It happened to Bush within the Republican party in 2016. It will happen to Trump too - we just don't know when. Yes, it will happen to Obama too.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Honestly, I'm impressed with how Iran was handled in the last 2-3 days. Even though he "started it" by killing the Iranian general, he had an opportunity to escalate after Iran retaliated, but didn't. I don't think the neocons and Bush, etc. in the past would have backed down like he did.
Edit - Trump is actually pretty easy to read on FP. He wants us out of wars, etc., but if he's confronted, he's going to come out on top, end of story. At least that's how I read him.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Confirmed: American businesses and consumers are paying 'approximately 100%' of Trump tariff costs
“U.S. tariffs continue to be almost entirely borne by U.S. firms and consumers,” the NBER working paper stated. “Similarly, we also find that the substantial redirection of trade in response to the 2018 tariffs has accelerated.”
“U.S. tariffs continue to be almost entirely borne by U.S. firms and consumers,” the NBER working paper stated. “Similarly, we also find that the substantial redirection of trade in response to the 2018 tariffs has accelerated.”
Coolio2000
Member
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Let's see what this deal actually is, it's already cost us over 50 billion dollars. Trumps idea of winning, and the drones will eat it up I'm sure 
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
Pocket change compared to how much Clinton's allowing of China in the WTO has cost America in manufacturing losses.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Coolio2000
Member
It will be interesting to see what style of diplomacy works. I believe 40 years of appeasement has run its course. I'm not really sure how many more Americans lives need to be lost, attacks on the Embassy, attacks on Saudi Refineries, shooting down of US drones, funding of anti-American terrorist groups, etc.... can be tolerated.
Killing Solemani was a firm warning.
Trump does not want war with Iran.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Coolio2000
Member
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