May 2019, Tesla - "We have Liftoff!"

[Buckminster]

From FC:

This is the track record so far:

• -$717m Q2'18
• +311m Q3'18

+$317m is required for Q4+Q2, and Q1 profitability, for S&P 500 inclusion.

What we know:

• Q4 is unclear "smaller than $311m" could mean $250m, $150m, but also $30m.
• I wouldn't read too much into "tiny Q1".

@ReflexFunds projects $177m income which is about $1 EPS - current street expectations.

That leaves +$140m for Q1, which should be more than doable with high margin EU and China sales

There is always the possibility for a significant negative development though.

It will be much clearer in two weeks.

 

[mongo]

This is the track record so far:

• -$717m Q2'18
• +311m Q3'18

+$317m is required for Q4+Q2, and Q1 profitability, for S&P 500 inclusion.

The four quarter profitably is not a hard requirement, but will likely be followed.
(See the S&P 500 thread)

 

[Krugerrand]

From FC:

This is the track record so far:

• -$717m Q2'18
• +311m Q3'18

+$317m is required for Q4+Q2, and Q1 profitability, for S&P 500 inclusion.

What we know:

• Q4 is unclear "smaller than $311m" could mean $250m, $150m, but also $30m.
• I wouldn't read too much into "tiny Q1".

WAG but not really, I’m positive that smaller doesn’t mean $30m. Or $100m. I believe we’re looking at at least $200m and as much as $300m.

$30m would, however, fit ‘tiny’ profit for Q1.

 

[Buckminster]

Keeping the dream alive:

Q4 ER update:
-717 + 311 + $139,4m in Q4 leaving ~$266.6m for Q1. ReflexFunds is estimating $33m but FC is beating him higher. Let's say there is a 30% chance - not good enough for me.

How can we salvage May as being the date when SP is close to being guaranteed to takeoff - at least to 500?

1) I am told almost all websites will not show a positive p/e ratio as they also use GAAP. However, Tesla will announce non-GAAP profitable and this will at least get some publicity.
2) GAAP profitable for 3 quarters in a row
3) Certain GAAP profitability to be announced in Q2 ER leading to S&P inclusion - this should get major publicity.
4) Bond paid off, MY announced?
5) Continued significant FCF

The chance of May being significant has reduced along with it's likely impact. It's still a good dream though!