Model 3 Dimensions

[patreeko]

Another thing to consider: the difference in baseline wheel hub diameters could easily be making the Model S (19") appear to have a longer wheelbase than the Model 3 (20"). It would be a very very subtle difference, probably virtually impossible to mentally compensate for. Consider this illusion:

https://sciencebob.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/opticaldotsgif.gif

 

[Garlan Garner]

Well this was an absolutely exhausting read. A few points:

1. Keeping the wheelbase the same as the Model S while reducing overall size is indeed the most economical path. Anything you can keep the same between models means not only the possibility of swapping parts, but the much more important thing: reducing tooling costs. And reducing tooling costs for motors and batteries is crucial for Tesla because these are not normal auto manufacturer costs.

2. It's almost impossible to estimate any dimensions in this manner, and especially overall length is flat out impossible. The *only* dimension you might get close to is wheelbase but everything else will come out dramatically shorter than expected. There's three factors in that which almost no-one is bringing up:

A. Linear perspective foreshortening: If we imagine a flat plane from the sidewalls of the tires, every feature that is further away from us will be shrunk more and more the further it is back. Since the total vehicle length is measured from the *centerline* of the vehicle, it will be much much shorter than we can see. It might be possible to compensate for this if we could see the far tires and calculate the centerline and the proportional factors to scale to... but we can't... soo, that's a no-go. Foreshortening means you also can never even SEE the very front tip and rear edge of these cars in this kind of photos. What you guys are measuring against is some random tangent along the curve of the bodywork.

B. Curved perspective foreshortening: Curved objects dramatize perspective effects and can objects look *longer* from the side than they should be, even if you can compensate for linear perspective effects. How's that for weird?

C. Camera lens distortion: the length of the camera lens can change the style of perspective... a really long lens will reduce foreshortening or "flatten" the image. In the above example, a very long lens could make the far tires appear almost in line with the near tires. On the other hand, a short lens could have the opposite effect, increasing foreshortening and making the far tires appears much closer together and smaller than the near tires. Wider lenses also tend to have barrel distortion, which makes objects in the center of the field bigger, and objects at the edges of the field shorter. This effect would make the wheelbase appear longer than it is, the height taller than it is, while simultaneously making the overall length of the vehicle appear shorter. Distance from the camera to the subject also exaggerates these effects... the closer the camera is to the subject, the greater the distortion. And since you have no way of knowing what kind of lens is being used for these various shots, comparing different photographs from different sources would be completely useless... even IF you had the exact dimensions, you would never be able to make the kinds of comparisons you are looking for.

The video comparison shots are probably the most informative, but even with those... unless the tires closest to us followed EXACTLY the same path to the millimeter, perspective effects mean the wheelbase could appear longer or shorter. If the car is dramatically narrower as many are suggesting, then if the cars followed the exact same centerline path, the Model 3 would appear shorter than the Model S just by virtue of the perspective effects against the differences in the vehicle widths. The "few inches shorter" could easily be explained by perspective and those shots could very well actually prove they have the same exact wheelbase.

That's a whole lot of typing just to say "I'm not sure". LOL

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Well this was an absolutely exhausting read. A few points:

1. Keeping the wheelbase the same as the Model S while reducing overall size is indeed the most economical path. Anything you can keep the same between models means not only the possibility of swapping parts, but the much more important thing: reducing tooling costs. And reducing tooling costs for motors and batteries is crucial for Tesla because these are not normal auto manufacturer costs.

2. It's almost impossible to estimate any dimensions in this manner, and especially overall length is flat out impossible. The *only* dimension you might get close to is wheelbase but everything else will come out dramatically shorter than expected. There's three factors in that which almost no-one is bringing up:

A. Linear perspective foreshortening: If we imagine a flat plane from the sidewalls of the tires, every feature that is further away from us will be shrunk more and more the further it is back. Since the total vehicle length is measured from the *centerline* of the vehicle, it will be much much shorter than we can see. It might be possible to compensate for this if we could see the far tires and calculate the centerline and the proportional factors to scale to... but we can't... soo, that's a no-go. Foreshortening means you also can never even SEE the very front tip and rear edge of these cars in this kind of photos. What you guys are measuring against is some random tangent along the curve of the bodywork.

B. Curved perspective foreshortening: Curved objects dramatize perspective effects and can objects look *longer* from the side than they should be, even if you can compensate for linear perspective effects. How's that for weird?

C. Camera lens distortion: the length of the camera lens can change the style of perspective... a really long lens will reduce foreshortening or "flatten" the image. In the above example, a very long lens could make the far tires appear almost in line with the near tires. On the other hand, a short lens could have the opposite effect, increasing foreshortening and making the far tires appears much closer together and smaller than the near tires. Wider lenses also tend to have barrel distortion, which makes objects in the center of the field bigger, and objects at the edges of the field shorter. This effect would make the wheelbase appear longer than it is, the height taller than it is, while simultaneously making the overall length of the vehicle appear shorter. Distance from the camera to the subject also exaggerates these effects... the closer the camera is to the subject, the greater the distortion. And since you have no way of knowing what kind of lens is being used for these various shots, comparing different photographs from different sources would be completely useless... even IF you had the exact dimensions, you would never be able to make the kinds of comparisons you are looking for.

The video comparison shots are probably the most informative, but even with those... unless the tires closest to us followed EXACTLY the same path to the millimeter, perspective effects mean the wheelbase could appear longer or shorter. If the car is dramatically narrower as many are suggesting, then if the cars followed the exact same centerline path, the Model 3 would appear shorter than the Model S just by virtue of the perspective effects against the differences in the vehicle widths. The "few inches shorter" could easily be explained by perspective and those shots could very well actually prove they have the same exact wheelbase.

if it was THAT exhausting, you could have just let the thread from 3 months ago stay dead.

 

[Red Sage]

1. Keeping the wheelbase the same as the Model S while reducing overall size is indeed the most economical path.

No it isn't. They are completely different vehicles. That has been the intent all along. The BMW 3-Series, 5-Series, and 7-Series were essentially the same car for decades. And they still didn't keep the same wheelbase. The Honda Accord began life as a stretched wheelbase Civic. Much the same is true of older versions of Nissan Maxima, Altima/Stanza, and Sentra. Within product lines, designs and components have been shared among siblings for decades. The primary distinction between them was generally size, and that was determined by extending, or shortening, the wheelbase to produce new products. NOT by using the same wheelbase on everything.

2. It's almost impossible to estimate any dimensions in this manner, and especially overall length is flat out impossible. The *only* dimension you might get close to is wheelbase but everything else will come out dramatically shorter than expected. There's three factors in that which almost no-one is bringing up:

Except that I'm pretty sure someone, in this discussion, or elsewhere on these forums, or certainly on the Tesla Motors Forum HAS mentioned them...

A. Linear perspective foreshortening:...

Yadda, yadda, yadda... Most of us know we don't live in a perfectly orthographic world. So, 'DUH.'

B. Curved perspective foreshortening:...

And that is precisely why the world 'perspective' was invented.

C. Camera lens distortion:...

Yes. And that's why I have to lie down on the ground to have a chance of photographing an entire tree that my own eyes can see in its entirety while I'm standing. Understood.

The video comparison shots are probably the most informative, but even with those... unless the tires closest to us followed EXACTLY the same path to the millimeter, perspective effects mean the wheelbase could appear longer or shorter. If the car is dramatically narrower as many are suggesting, then if the cars followed the exact same centerline path, the Model 3 would appear shorter than the Model S just by virtue of the perspective effects against the differences in the vehicle widths. The "few inches shorter" could easily be explained by perspective and those shots could very well actually prove they have the same exact wheelbase.

Given the available information and sources it is pretty well understood that most of what we have gone over here is somewhere between speculation and guesstimation. That's OK. This is a public forum on the internet. Not a US Senate Subcommittee Hearing. Chillax, Man...

Oh, but you are entirely wrong about the wheelbase thing. There is no way the Model ☰ has the same wheelbase as the Model S. When I was a kid and my Mom would decide to change the furniture around, I was her work mule. She'd say, "Put the couch over there." I'd say, "It won't fit!" She'd say, "I wanna see it!" So I'd move the couch, and it wouldn't fit, and she'd see it didn't fit, and she'd ask me to move it somewhere else.

I know what optical illusions are... They typically don't work on me. I have to purposely put my eyes out of focus to get even an inkling of what fascinates others so much. As an artist, I have a good eye for detail and a strong understanding of spatial placement. Even an in-camera forced perspective shot is typically pretty obvious to me. There's always something that gives it away. So I always have to keep my mouth shut around magicians too, because I see what they do and would give it away otherwise. Thus, I automatically adjust for the issues you bring up when I look at photos of Model ☰ next to its siblings Model S and Model X, and I'm sure I'm not the only one capable of the feat.

 

[Garlan Garner]

6 pages of posts and I think the short answer is:
"No"

Longer answer: Tesla hasn't provided that level of specific information, probably because the M3 that was shown is their reveal prototype. It is definitely not the final car, so that information doesn't actually exist (in a public way) yet.

However, internet forums are fun and prone to meandering trips down rabbit holes. I recommend reading through the posts to see how people are trying to guess the dimensions of the prototype car. For me, at least, it gives a starting point on how to think about the general size I am expecting.

Again, keeping in mind that even we had the car and a tape measure, this is not the final version, so things will change. Although I don't imagine the exterior will change too much (trunk opening maybe bigger? front end design change to match recent Model S update?). The interior, I imagine will change quite a bit.

It's also fun to look at the Model S and Model X initial reveal prototypes, and how they changed into the final production versions.

Speculation is fun, but we'll all have to wait probably until late 2017 to get detailed info about the actual car we reserved.

To be honest....I don't believe that pencils are up. There is absolutely no indication that they are.

AND.....I've lost some interest.

I don't know what Tesla is doing. Everyone keeps talking about the fact that they are installing robots and stuff..... However there is absolutely no indication of that either.

 

[dsvick]

To be honest....I don't believe that pencils are up. There is absolutely no indication that they are.

AND.....I've lost some interest.

I don't know what Tesla is doing. Everyone keeps talking about the fact that they are installing robots and stuff..... However there is absolutely no indication of that either.

You're right, pencils are not up, they're down, have been for a couple of months now. As far as indication, the tweet from Elon wasn't good enough?

Yes, they're installing robots, or maybe just waiting on them to be delivered since I'm sure custom robots take a while to build. There are also a ton of other things they are working on to get ready to start production. What sort of indication are you looking for? Why would you expect some sort of indication? Do you want daily updates from them about exactly what they're doing? I'd rather they spend their time actually doing stuff.

We just need to be patient, we knew it was going to be well over a year when we put our money down, there is no need to start clamoring for more info now. Lack of updates doesn't mean anything one way or the other, until you hear otherwise you need to assume they are still on track.

 

[ecarfan]

I don't know what Tesla is doing. Everyone keeps talking about the fact that they are installing robots and stuff..... However there is absolutely no indication of that either.

You don't work for Tesla. Neither does anyone else here who is speculating. There is no compelling reason for Tesla to take the time to make public announcements about how much progress has been made so far in building the Model 3 assembly line and other activities related to starting Model 3 production sometime in 2017.

It will happen. And you are welcome to continue to complain about the lack of public information. We will learn more at the Model 3 Reveal Part Deux. Whenever that occurs...

 

[jonnyg]

Excerpts from the Q2 2016 shareholder letter from the beginning of August, with most pertinent stuff bolded:

Q2 was certainly busy. We completed the design phase of Model 3, increased vehicle production by another 18% sequentially, rolled out the biggest aesthetic and functional update to Model S since its initial launch, introduced an upgradeable 60 kWh Model S, increased automotive gross margin excluding ZEV credits, and completed a $1.7 billion equity raise to end the quarter with $3.25 billion in cash. Since then, we introduced a similarly upgradeable 60 kWh Model X, shared our future vision for Tesla in “The Master Plan, Part Deux,” formally introduced the Gigafactory to the world, and signed a definitive agreement to acquire SolarCity. Through all of this, we remain focused on launching Model 3 next year as scheduled.

We have completed the design phase of Model 3 and released Model 3 for tooling, production planning and validation. The Model 3 capacity expansion will reflect our initial efforts to apply our “machine that makes the machine” philosophy to vehicle manufacturing, and demonstrates our intense focus on volumetric and capital efficiency. Some Model 3 production equipment is already on line, including initial capacity in our stamping and paint centers. Later this year, we plan to begin construction of new Model 3 body and general assembly centers.

Gigafactory construction remains on target to support volume production of Model 3 in late 2017, and we recently accelerated construction to reach a rate of 35 GWh/year of cell production in 2018. This will allow us to meet the needs of our accelerated Model 3 production plan.

We may find out more in early November when they release the Q3 letter, but it sounds like they are still on track, unless they are lying in their shareholder letter.

 

[Red Sage]

I don't know what Tesla is doing. Everyone keeps talking about the fact that they are installing robots and stuff..... However there is absolutely no indication of that either.

The last few jobs I've had were very prone to indicating something they felt was very important: The notion of 'proprietary information'. I get the idea that Tesla Motors probably does the same with their employee orientation. There are things that companies never tell their Customers because quite simply it is none of their damned business. There is also the fact that telling those things to the Customer won't change any damned thing. And when those Customers continually demand to know things they don't actually need to know it becomes rather bothersome. Especially if they are unreasonable, unprepared, and unprofessional -- even in a business-to-business relationship. So if a Customer reaches the point where they say the magic words, "I'll never buy from you again!", I am of a mind to make sure they do exactly that. Yes. That simple statement allows me to FIRE a CUSTOMER for GOOD. Close their account, ban their e-mail address, street address, and credit card, make sure they can't get anything from us even at their Mom's house. Don't call me, and I'll make sure to never call you either. Luckily, cooler heads prevail at Tesla Motors. There. Feel better?

 

[landis]

That simple statement allows me to FIRE a CUSTOMER for GOOD

It is still tough to keep patiently waiting...

 

[ModelNforNerd]

we're about to get a handful of crumbs to pick through with the Q3 results call, tentatively scheduled for November 1st. the filings and the summary shareholders letters are usually good for some tidbits.

and.....the latest referral program ends very soon. The people with the most referrals will be receiving invites to Tesla's next unveiling event...whatever that may be.

So I am going to guesstimate we have another 3 quiet weeks or so....then we'll get shareholders letters, the results call, and referral winners will tell us details of their invite (date, time, location).

And by then, speculation will run wild as to what it actually will be.

For now? Enjoy fall. Drink some cider, rake some leaves, etc etc etc.

Things will pick up soon.

 

[Garlan Garner]

You don't work for Tesla. Neither does anyone else here who is speculating. There is no compelling reason for Tesla to take the time to make public announcements about how much progress has been made so far in building the Model 3 assembly line and other activities related to starting Model 3 production sometime in 2017.

It will happen. And you are welcome to continue to complain about the lack of public information. We will learn more at the Model 3 Reveal Part Deux. Whenever that occurs...

No, I don't work for Tesla, however I don't know what that has to do with anything.

Anyway, thanks for welcoming me to complain about the lack of public information. I will take you up on that.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Excerpts from the Q2 2016 shareholder letter from the beginning of August, with most pertinent stuff bolded:



We may find out more in early November when they release the Q3 letter, but it sounds like they are still on track, unless they are lying in their shareholder letter.

I don't believe Tesla is ever lying about what they are trying to do. What I don't understand is why they seem to struggle to do what they say they are going to do. Such as meeting dates and deadlines. I'm not a large shareholder by any means, but what keeps a company such as Tesla afloat are their shareholders/investors. Tesla couldn't be where they are without them. Sooo.....there is a level of public honesty and information owed to shareholders. I suppose no one will know if they are on track or not until they miss/make a date associated with their goals and public promises.

 

[Garlan Garner]

we're about to get a handful of crumbs to pick through with the Q3 results call, tentatively scheduled for November 1st. the filings and the summary shareholders letters are usually good for some tidbits.

and.....the latest referral program ends very soon. The people with the most referrals will be receiving invites to Tesla's next unveiling event...whatever that may be.

So I am going to guesstimate we have another 3 quiet weeks or so....then we'll get shareholders letters, the results call, and referral winners will tell us details of their invite (date, time, location).

And by then, speculation will run wild as to what it actually will be.

For now? Enjoy fall. Drink some cider, rake some leaves, etc etc etc.

Things will pick up soon.

No - no raking for me. I have a fully qualified son for that.

 

[dsvick]

and.....the latest referral program ends very soon. The people with the most referrals will be receiving invites to Tesla's next unveiling event...whatever that may be.

It will be interesting to see what unveiling it is. I think a lot of people are speculating something to do with AP. How far apart were the last two referral endings and the reveal that they got invited to? I'm still leaning towards spring for the second reveal. Unless the reveal is in January/February and the opening of the configurator is in spring, for a July production start.

What I don't understand is why they seem to struggle to do what they say they are going to do. Such as meeting dates and deadlines. I'm not a large shareholder by any means, but what keeps a company such as Tesla afloat are their shareholders/investors. Tesla couldn't be where they are without them. Sooo.....there is a level of public honesty and information owed to shareholders. I suppose no one will know if they are on track or not until they miss/make a date associated with their goals and public promises.

Are there new missed deadlines that you're referring to are you talking about all the old ones that everyone that placed a model 3 reservation already knew about? Your last line says it all, until there is somethign that shows that they aren't, we should all assume that are on schedule.

In your previous post you said you were losing interest, that might be best, it's only been 6 months, there are at least 9 months to go, the stress isn't going to do you any good ....

 

[ohmman]

what keeps a company such as Tesla afloat are their shareholders/investors.

This is definitely true as it pertains to raising capital in secondary offerings, but I'd argue that what really keeps Tesla afloat are the customers. Investors are fickle, running for the hills when things look even marginally off. I'm generalizing, of course, but as a group I believe customers are more likely to stick with the brand through the ups and downs.

That's why I'm here. And I'm not a (direct) shareholder.

 

[Garlan Garner]

It will be interesting to see what unveiling it is. I think a lot of people are speculating something to do with AP. How far apart were the last two referral endings and the reveal that they got invited to? I'm still leaning towards spring for the second reveal. Unless the reveal is in January/February and the opening of the configurator is in spring, for a July production start.


Are there new missed deadlines that you're referring to are you talking about all the old ones that everyone that placed a model 3 reservation already knew about? Your last line says it all, until there is somethign that shows that they aren't, we should all assume that are on schedule.

In your previous post you said you were losing interest, that might be best, it's only been 6 months, there are at least 9 months to go, the stress isn't going to do you any good ....

No stress. No stress at all. Stress and anticipation are cousins. The opposite of stress is boredom / lack of interest.

 

[BluestarE3]

In your previous post you said you were losing interest, that might be best, it's only been 6 months, there are at least 9 months to go, the stress isn't going to do you any good ....

Whenever I find myself getting a wee bit antsy about the wait, I refer back to this (especially the first two bullets):
Thoughts From an Old Timer

 

[Garlan Garner]

This is definitely true as it pertains to raising capital in secondary offerings, but I'd argue that what really keeps Tesla afloat are the customers. Investors are fickle, running for the hills when things look even marginally off. I'm generalizing, of course, but as a group I believe customers are more likely to stick with the brand through the ups and downs.

That's why I'm here. And I'm not a (direct) shareholder.

Maybe they could do without the shareholders and investors. Maybe they could stay afloat without any investment or shareholders. If that's true......then imagine what they would be able to do IF they now had shareholders. <-------- I'm being semi-sarcastic.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Whenever I find myself getting a wee bit antsy about the wait, I refer back to this (especially the first two bullets):
Thoughts From an Old Timer

Whenever I get antsy about the M3....I go out and buy another MS because that's what us rich people do.