Model 3 - LR AWD Waiting Room

[theorama]

isn't wyoming a deep red state? Since when did deep red states start taxing the free folks all these crazy tax dollas

This is way off topic, but yeah, I'm not touching American politics without a substantial amount of alcohol.

It's sticker shock for sure since my wife and I are originally from Ontario, and we're coming previously $120/yr - now $0 per year thanks to Premier Ford. In Wyoming, they base the annual registration fee on a formula that includes a percentage of the MRSP and the age of the vehicle (incentivizing retaining older vehicles).

But to keep this on topic-ish, the added registration costs should still be less than avg annual cost of gas.

 

[T-J-]

2 days into the the 2 week EDD I got moved out today.
New EDD June 9 - July 17

What's your OD?
You have 5 posts now, so you can add your details to your signature.

 

[Hiline]

However -- I do not think there is an ML model doing the EDD estimates. Supply Chain Management often use optimization models which are different than machine learning models Council Post: Four Key Differences Between Mathematical Optimization And Machine Learning

Optimization models do not "predict" the future but use statistical & mathematical methods to find the most efficient path optimizing for several parameters, such as materials coming in, delivery routes (existing one and planned ones) etc -- this is why we do have outliers such as an east coast April VIN getting their car before Fremont Feb VIN

This is the reason, even in absence of this historical supply chain disruption, the EDD shown on the order page is still pretty accurate. It is the output of a mathematical optimization function and not a regression.

P.S: Customer Experience doesn't seem to be a function the model optimizes for lol

Ah. So you think that Tesla uses an optimization model to plan production, and EDD comes directly from this production plan. Thus, when production plans change, EDDs also move. Makes sense.

 

[MrMonkeyMonk]

Ah. So you think that Tesla uses an optimization model to plan production, and EDD comes directly from this production plan. Thus, when production plans change, EDDs also move. Makes sense.

I'd go a bit further and say those people whose EDDs keep changing are on the edges of 'batches' of similar vehicles, and those that don't are in the middle of a batch. Edge folks switch batches and mid folks move around within a batch.

But that's all speculation...

 

[Hiline]

Haha -- best way is to calibrate the model and change the raw scores to probability estimates

How do you change raw scores to probability estimates? Use a sigmoid function?

 

[DrivebyVolts]

I agree that QAs don’t always know how the systems works especially when they are limited to black box testing. Not much to say about how well the EDD is working without knowing the expected behaviour.
Saying “how anyone in their right might signed off on it” is mostly my rant as a consumer, with the assumption that the EDD should have some level of accuracy. especially as my EDD has been changing daily since 4/25, it feels like a lazy placeholder, which I suppose is part of that “feature” instead of a bug

As a former Software QA, I'll disagree slightly a QA has to have the system requirements as well as expected results from the design team (or PDM) to do any kind of meaningful testing even while black box testing, can't log defects if you can't reference the defects against an expected result. Yes knowledge of internal working (programming/code) of the system is not required in a black box environment. The EDD here might be working exactly how it is meant to.

 

[rickvancouver]

How do you change raw scores to probability estimates? Use a sigmoid function?

That's popular for smaller datasets, isotonic regression for larger datasets -- need an evaluation dataset though, for the outputs to be calibrated.

 

[show_stoppa]

As a SWE, I'm not certain how they would hard-code daily changes. Generally hard-coded things are static and don't change. The fact that for some folks it's changing everyday, means it's not hard-coded. It could however be programmed to change or update more or less frequently based on certain conditions. Perhaps those are the "edge cases" you're referring to.

yup. programmatically hardcoding edge cases

 

[show_stoppa]

Haha -- best way is to calibrate the model and change the raw scores to probability estimates

hey hey hey... I take ML system design stand-offs pretty seriously. Lets not get in the discussion

 

[Not That M3]

I love how geeky this convo turned. Are we in agreement that all the techies kinda get the EDD delays? Unless you are personally affected though.

 

[Neuro450]

Vin assigned (249xxx) today! OD: 2/20/2022, LR AWD | White | White | 18' aeros | No FSD | NY (Mt. Kisco pickup) SA swears it has matrix lights but we'll see

 

[rrsrsr]

Vin assigned (249xxx) today! OD: 2/20/2022, LR AWD | White | White | 18' aeros | No FSD | NY (Mt. Kisco pickup) SA swears it has matrix lights but we'll see

Nice. What is your estimated pickup date range?
I ordered same as you except black interior

 

[Tom_JS]

Vin assigned (249xxx) today! OD: 2/20/2022, LR AWD | White | White | 18' aeros | No FSD | NY (Mt. Kisco pickup) SA swears it has matrix lights but we'll see

Congrats, it’s slowly creeping up to my date I see. Man Mt Kisco is quite a hike for you from Buffalo. I hope it all goes well for you once you get there.

 

[blonded]

Nothing I love more than seeing another Mt Kisco VIN and knowing I am one car closer, seems like there is a good amount of Feb Mt. Kisco orders in this thread compared to March, I'm rootin for y'all.

 

[Neuro450]

Nice. What is your estimated pickup date range?
I ordered same as you except black interior

App is showing 05/18 - 05/22!

 

[blonded]

Congrats, it’s slowly creeping up to my date I see. Man Mt Kisco is quite a hike for you from Buffalo. I hope it all goes well for you once you get there.

The Buffalo -> Mt. Kisco trip is not one I will be looking forward to, will probably be taking a train or bus into NYC, and then a train to Mt. Kisco. I will have pretty much no recourse if I want to reject delivery since I need a way to get home unless I can convince someone to drive me the 6 hours it takes to get there from Buffalo.

 

[JB from the AZ]

Congrats but I think you took my car lol, I ordered a day before.

Hurry up and get your car so I can get mine next please.

 

[Neuro450]

Congrats, it’s slowly creeping up to my date I see. Man Mt Kisco is quite a hike for you from Buffalo. I hope it all goes well for you once you get there.

Mt. Kisco is the closest pickup location :/ Trying to get them to confirm the headlights before we make the drive (family member with lots of vision issues that was very excited about the matrix lights)

 

[show_stoppa]

Vin assigned (249xxx) today! OD: 2/20/2022, LR AWD | White | White | 18' aeros | No FSD | NY (Mt. Kisco pickup) SA swears it has matrix lights but we'll see

my SA too swears mine has matrix lights. 246xxx VIN. Mt Kisco too.

 

[elyk864]

Hurry up and get your car so I can get mine next please.

Right lol