Model 3 "Production Bottlenecks" lead to lower-than-anticipated Q3 delivery #s

[Garlan Garner]

Show me where Elon or Tesla promised. I've not seen that anywhere, especially not in your reference.

I suggest reading your linked article. Electrek backed into those numbers not from promises, but from the number of supplier orders Elon said were placed -- in the context that any of those things could throw their ramp completely off.

I'm not sure if twitter is official for Elon - ....like it is for another US leader....but

Elon Musk on Twitter "above" 1500?

I suppose we should trust ELON like we do weathermen..... When they say it "should" rain tomorrow - do we take an umbrella to work and forgive him if it doesn't rain?

lol I think we do - and then trust to him again tomorrow.

Some people know its going to rain signaled by the arthritis in their knees.

my knees say no 3's. lol just kidding - in the mood for poetry

 

[Bladerskb]

Show me where Elon or Tesla promised. I've not seen that anywhere, especially not in your reference.

I suggest reading your linked article. Electrek backed into those numbers not from promises, but from the number of supplier orders Elon said were placed -- in the context that any of those things could throw their ramp completely off.

Tesla wants to make up to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of 2017

Maybe time for the member to change his tagline?

200,000...

wait what come again?

 

[KarenRei]

Tesla wants to make up to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of 2017

Ahem:

Part of that is a bold plan announced today to make 500,000 cars in total by 2018, two years faster than Tesla had previously planned. To that end, Musk said that the company is looking for the Model 3 to be at "production capability" by July 1st of next year, acknowledging in the same breath that the date likely will not be met but that "there needs to be penalties internally or externally for anyone who doesn't meet that timeframe." "We need to hold peoples' feet to the fire," he added.

Incredibly, Musk said that they're targeting 100,000 to 200,000 Model 3s made in the second half of 2017, which would represent an extraordinary boost over the company's current production capability

 

[ohmman]

Tesla wants to make up to 200,000 Model 3s in the second half of 2017



200,000...

Promise. That word appears even in this edition:

 

[Garlan Garner]

Promise. That word appears even in this edition:

I believe the question for the dictionary is:

What is a tweet?
1. statement?
2. promise?
3. wish?
4. speculation?
5. guess?
6. hope?
7. lie?
8. truth?
9. etc

 

[ohmman]

I believe the question for the dictionary is:

What is a tweet?
1. statement?
2. promise?
3. wish?
4. speculation?
5. guess?
6. hope?
7. lie?
8. truth?
9. etc

The statement @Bladerskb made was demonstrably wrong, and that’s fine so long as one admits it. That’s the point.

 

[Garlan Garner]

The statement @Bladerskb made was demonstrably wrong. That’s the point of this discussion.

10-4

 

[ohmman]

10-4

I think a tweet is officially a promise.

The text is “Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3's on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500.”

The word should does not make a promise except to promise that it is the person’s expectation.

 

[Garlan Garner]

The text is “Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3's on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500.”

The word should does not make a promise except to promise that it is the person’s expectation.

True. And I hope that share holders share that perspective. <----- non sarcastic.

 

[timk225]

Huh. Never have I been more dead-nuts certain in one of my predictions than what I said for Tesla's Q3. I guess a future in picking stocks is not for me.

I am hoping to get my 3 this year to get the tax credit this year.

 

[dsvick]

True. And I hope that share holders share that perspective. <----- non sarcastic.

Judging by the stock price the last few days they do.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Judging by the stock price the last few days they do.

You are exactly right.

Fancy that.....share holders reacting to twitter "statements" from Elon as facts - just like everyone else. <--------- sarcasm.


Doesn't seem to matter how anyone defines what words mean by dictionary standards. <--------------- sarcasm again.

 

[ohmman]

You are exactly right.

Fancy that.....share holders reacting to twitter "statements" from Elon as facts - just like everyone else. <--------- sarcasm.


Doesn't seem to matter how anyone defines what words mean by dictionary standards. <--------------- sarcasm again.

I believe the point was that they did not react that way at all. Stock is up sharply.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I believe the point was that they did not react that way at all. Stock is up sharply.

I believe you are correct.

I believe that the stock was going down with constant bad news about low production numbers.

Tesla finally said something about the fact that the issues have been resolved and production ramp is now back in play....and then the stock goes up = a bit.

Maybe I'm wrong but isn't the timing between Tesla non-information and information impeccable compared to the stock price?

 

[EchoDelta]

Doesn't seem to matter how anyone defines what words mean by dictionary standards. <--------------- sarcasm again.

xkcd: Communicating

 

[EchoDelta]

a bit

this may belong more in market action thread... but well timed semi pictures may not have hurt either IMO.
But...what was this thread about? Lost track.

 

[AustinPowers]

How do you think we in the US felt seeing all the rad-as-hell cars made by VW and Audi and BMW that aren't just brought to the US later, but in fact are never brought over at all? It's about time we get some priority

This is not funny at all!
Besides, your comparison is not applicable. Apart from the fact that there isn't any "rad-as-hell" car made by VW, Audi or BMW that I know of that hasn't been available in the US as well. Care to enlighten me what models you are referring to?
And on the contrary, the US often gets preferrential treatment. For years, the most powerful engine versions of many manufacturers were only available in the US, even from European manufacturers.
And even discounting that, when it comes to Model 3, it is something very different in that from the get-go, Elon invited potential customers from all over the world to put down a reservation. It's not like some car from say BMW where they never promised to sell it in a specific market like the US, or even to take deposits for it.
Plus, Elon clearly showed the roadmap and implied that it was a first-come, first served basis, meaning the earlier you reserve, the earlier you will get the invite to configure. Of course, it was made clear that at first there would be a priorisation. Emplyoees, then existing owners from US west coast to east coast, then the rest. But that shouldn't mean that people who showed support and reserved on day 1 (and gave Tesla their money in the process) should be pushed back even by people reserving one and a half years later, just because the are from the "wrong" market. That is showing no respect to those early supporters.

I am hoping to get my 3 this year to get the tax credit this year.

Well, if you are one of the priviledged, i.e. existing Tesla owners from the US, which you appear to be, then by all means, keep hoping. Or ask Elon. He might say you should expect your car to arrive this year.

 

[dhanson865]

This is not funny at all!

You might not think it's funny but I've commonly seen posts on US forums talking about cars which only exist in Europe and that includes boring but useful stuff from Toyota and such too.

Complaining that you don't get it first from a US company is just as useful as tilting at windmills.

 

[phil0909]

The text is “Handover party for first 30 customer Model 3's on the 28th! Production grows exponentially, so Aug should be 100 cars and Sept above 1500.”

The word should does not make a promise except to promise that it is the person’s expectation.

True enough. But remember that the tweet was followed by a more definitive, written assertion in Tesla's Q2 shareholder letter, in which the Company said: "Based on our preparedness at this time, we are confident we can produce just over 1,500 vehicles in Q3, and achieve a run rate of 5,000 vehicles per week by the end of 2017."

"Confident" is quite different from "should". Either this later assertion was truthful, or it was not. Both of these two possible situations are troubling.

Having confidence is still not a promise. Sometimes we are confident of things that turn out to be not true. But when a large public corporation expresses confidence to its stockholders, those words mean something. When a Company fails to achieve something of which it was confident just weeks earlier, its competence is rightly called into question. If such failures happen repeatedly, incompetence eventually becomes a certainty.

Personally, I think that the shareholder letter was simply dishonest. An honest letter might have said "we are hopeful", rather than "we are confident". I can't prove it, of course, and none of us can know for sure. Maybe Tesla management really was justifiably confident in its projection, and an unforeseeable problem appeared out of the blue to derail or delay all of their solid planning.

What do you think? Were they truly "confident' they could produce over 1,500 vehicles in the quarter? And if they were confident, is Tesla's failure to meet the target attributable to incompetence, or to bad luck?

 

[AustinPowers]

You might not think it's funny but I've commonly seen posts on US forums talking about cars which only exist in Europe and that includes boring but useful stuff from Toyota and such too.

Complaining that you don't get it first from a US company is just as useful as tilting at windmills.

About cars that only exist in Europe, like I said, it is something different because these were never promised to be sold elsewhere. Like there are lots of cars that only exist in the US and not in Europe. Or in Japan. Or in China. Or wherever. That is not the point.
I am also not complaining about not getting it "first", as that was never my expectation in the first place. But I was indeed expecting to get it before people who are reserving now, one and a half years after me. Wouldn't you? Or would you not mind if people pushed in a queue, and would be rewarded for it. Imagine you are at the cinema, the new blockbuster is about to debut. You are standing in line, near the front, and have been standing there for ages. Then someone else pushes in before you, and the clerk at the counter says "well done, have a free jumbo pack of popcorn as well". Wouldn't you be p**ed off, and rightfully so?