Model 3 "Production Bottlenecks" lead to lower-than-anticipated Q3 delivery #s

[Garlan Garner]

Expectations and estimates are not promises, I don't understand why you insist on taking them as such.

Because they are the same in this case. If it wasn't Elon or JB that said it......i would give it to you.

It's also Elon and the entire tesla team that's saying they are behind. They aren't saying we are behind in our estimates or predictions or hopes and dreams. They are saying the same thing I am.

And before you guys ask.....google it for yourself.


There are no bottnecks on estimates.

 

[ohmman]

Expectations and promises aren’t the same, no matter the source of the statement. I expect some members here to stop stirring the pot, but I most certainly cannot promise that they will.

 

[Max*]

Expectations and promises aren’t the same, no matter the source of the statement. I expect some members here to stop stirring the pot, but I most certainly cannot promise that they will.

Bad analogy. That's hoping vs. expectations. You're hoping the members will stop stirring the pot, but deep down inside you know you can't expect them to

 

[ohmman]

Bad analogy. That's hoping vs. expectations. You're hoping the members will stop stirring the pot, but deep down inside you know you can't expect them to

Maybe it speaks to my optimism of the human spirit, or just a challenged intellect, but I really do often expect this. I'll think, "well, that's probably the last time someone will mention <whatever particular thing it is>."

 

[voip-ninja]

Maybe it speaks to my optimism of the human spirit, or just a challenged intellect, but I really do often expect this. I'll think, "well, that's probably the last time someone will mention <whatever particular thing it is>."

I think you have unrealistic expectations then.

The Tesla Model 3 is the most hotly anticipated car in decades and the most hotly anticipated consumer tech product in years. People are understandably frustrated that Tesla are not going to make the dates that they were originally given... especially when added information about what the 'new' dates are have not been forthcoming.

 

[K-MTG]

I just dropped a bunch of $$$ on stocks....hopefully it will go up now!!

 

[Garlan Garner]

I just dropped a bunch of $$$ on stocks....hopefully it will go up now!!

Don't say that. That's stirring the pot.

Especially since the bottleneck has absolutely nothing to do with the stock price of $319

 

[ohmman]

I think you have unrealistic expectations then.

The Tesla Model 3 is the most hotly anticipated car in decades and the most hotly anticipated consumer tech product in years. People are understandably frustrated that Tesla are not going to make the dates that they were originally given... especially when added information about what the 'new' dates are have not been forthcoming.

Stirring the pot implies purpose. I understand confusion and frustration, but there is a point at which it seems to be more about purposeful derailment.

But I agree, I clearly have unrealistic expectations because I'm consistently proven wrong.

 

[Tam]

...the spin doctors...

It's bad news and good news depending on a glass half-full or half-empty philosophy.

The bad is:

1) The order numbers are reduced to 3,000 from 5,000 starting December.

2) The 10,000/week ramp up is delayed until May or June instead of March.

3) These are future part order projections which might not necessarily mean Fremont will be able to crank out that many.

The good is:

1) Considering last report of hundreds for Q3, even with a future part order cut, it's still thousands per week which is much better than hundreds per quarter

 

[avoigt]

It's bad news and good news depending on a glass half-full or half-empty philosophy.

The bad is:

1) The order numbers are reduced to 3,000 from 5,000 starting December.

2) The 10,000/week ramp up is delayed until May or June instead of March.

3) These are future part order projections which might not necessarily mean Fremont will be able to crank out that many.

The good is:

1) Considering last report of hundreds for Q3, even with a future part order cut, it's still thousands per week which is much better than hundreds per quarter

Is that really bad ?

If you make a conservative calculation say 10k/week will be achieved in December 2018 (instead of the newly assumed delayed July 2017 timeline), with 3000 units per week in January 2017 and calculate MS and X giving them another 10 - 20% plus in 2018 you end up with almost 500K units in 2018 for all 3 Models.

Having said that this calculation holds if the M3 full speed production is slipping from March (as of the supplier report) to December 2018 which is 7 months!

In other words even if we experience further and hefty delays and not easily solved production issues Tesla will be on target in 2018. The incoming cash will finance the new GF in China, Europe and US and the expansion of the Charger network and development of MY.

The only thing that would worry me is a product that people don't really want but what I see and hear is quite the opposite...

 

[Barklikeadog]

False analogy. Samsung makes a commodity product cash cow in a mature industry - not a difficult-ramp product with a giant, unknown market size and no competition for its product. Tesla also does not make "mistakes" with its guidance as you and @Garlan Garner keep saying. It speaks an implied language to set really high goals and Elon is open about this. If you think otherwise then you by implication think that the entire stock market is dumb enough to not realize Elon consistently makes crazy optimistic predictions and the market has not priced this factor into its stock - but you, lone insightful individual typing away on the internet - have spotted the fatal valuation mistake the rest of the investing market and customer has been granting Elon a foolish pass on for the last decade.

If you *are* that lone genius then put your money where your mouth is and short the stock.

Sure havent felt alone lately.