Model 3 "Production Bottlenecks" lead to lower-than-anticipated Q3 delivery #s

[AustinPowers]

In the long run for most people, it doesn't matter. But plenty of people are on leases or are pushing their current cars to the limits. So by stating arbitrary, incorrect, estimates - pisses off the people who are on a deadline. And for good reason. So while you can play it down that he's gods gift to man kind, other people expect the CEO of a company to not produce tons of bullshit each time he tweets.

Exactly.
What pi**es me off the most is the fact that my projected delivery date has been pushed back twice even before production started. It went from "early 2018" via "2018" to now "late 2018". Also at first there were three projections, depending on the configuration, now that is gone as well and it just says "late 2018".
If it gets pushed into 2019, I will definitely cancel my (day 1!) reservation, because seeing that those people from the US who reserve now will get their car before us Europeans who reserved on day 1 is more than annoying, and besides totally unfair.

You would change the car you're planning on owning for years because of having to wait a few extra months?

I have been waiting for years for this car already, but the longer the wait, the less the enthusiasm. And the longer the wait, the more attractive (and numerous) the alternatives become.
Plus, and this of course is just speaking for myself, I didn't plan on owning the Model 3 for more than a few years anyway, far shorter than any of my previous cars.
Because in the end I can now see it will only be a stopgap measure before enough BEV models from the established competition become available. Then I will have absolutely no problem switching from a Model 3 to a BEV from a manufacturer with a less erratic CEO and a better track record at producing high quality cars without constant need for "optimization".

Let them. Who cares. There are 10 more clients waiting for their slot. Elon does not have a problem here lol - only pissy TMC geeks have a problem - and they do not matter.

Perhaps not. But over here, the media (naturally) tend to jump at any negative aspect about Tesla if they can, quite likely in order to protect our own car manufacturers. So there's enough FUD around already. With Tesla themselves providing the base for new bad news, they are doing their image on the whole a disservice, in a country with a large potential customer base that is - for the moment - highly sceptical about that new player from the US. Showing that Tesla can finally meet one of its targets would go a long way in proving the sceptics wrong. The word of mouth I hear every day now again goes "see, why did you reserve that Tesla, they have shown again that they can't keep their promises". That is how this latest news goes down with the avery potential car/BEV buyer over here. And apart from me, none of them is a TMC member, pissy geek or otherwise...

Irrelevant. Prior EV's were demand constrained so tax credits mattered. The Model 3 is the most production constrained product in decades. The long run game has to be to succeed without tax credits and in the short run demand is so high that it wouldn't affect sales one bit if all tax credits were gone tomorrow because for every buyer who jumps ship without a tax credit 5 more are waiting to take their slot because the Model 3 is an insane value - it has no competition.

Are you certain that out of those 5 more waiting there aren't at least 4.5 who also want to use the tax credit, and if that was gone they would jump ship as well?

 

[dsvick]

We need someone at Tesla to run a database script to update the estimated date. Should take someone about 60min to figure out. 60min to test. 2 days to get approval and then 10min to run.

With only a couple hundred thousand rows the query to extract that info should take a minute or two write and less than 5 seconds to run. It is the permission that will take the longest since it, most likely, wouldn't be given.

 

[voip-ninja]

With only a couple hundred thousand rows the query to extract that info should take a minute or two write and less than 5 seconds to run. It is the permission that will take the longest since it, most likely, wouldn't be given.

They can't update anyone until they have a better understanding of what production is going to be like in Q4.

All we're seeing is confirmation that they are uncertain of what Q4 production numbers of Model 3 are going to be.

If they update the dates to something slightly more realistic at this point in time people will lose their minds when they find out they are going to get their car in December not October. What if the best data they have, today, puts the delay at more like 3-6 months? That could totally trash their stock.

 

[flamingoezz]

You realize they don't stop selling S/X models during this model 3 slow down -- right?

The slower model 3s are built, the fewer they build before they hit 200k cars in the US, and ultimately that'll translate to fewer model 3 owners getting the credit before the phaseout begins.

You can't spin this as good news.

I take this as good news. Keeps the total US deliveries down and is only about 3 weeks behind the revised schedule. This is still 257 more then I expected when I put in my deposit.

Elon vs Estimated Actual
July=30 (Actual 30)
August=100 (Estimated 60)
September=1,500 (Estimated 170)
Total=1,630 (Total 260)

 

[gregincal]

You realize they don't stop selling S/X models during this model 3 slow down -- right?

The slower model 3s are built, the fewer they build before they hit 200k cars in the US, and ultimately that'll translate to fewer model 3 owners getting the credit before the phaseout begins.

You can't spin this as good news.

Actually, if the Model 3 was ramp was strong they could have hit the 200K limit at the end of this quarter, which would have resulted in all the Model 3's built between April and June of next year missing the full credit. Now it's almost certainly going to be hit in the first quarter of next year. The main thing that matters is how many cars the can build in the first 6 months of next year before the full credit runs out. Whether 200 or 1500 people get the credit this month is noise.

 

[PoitNarf]

Actually, if the Model 3 was ramp was strong they could have hit the 200K limit at the end of this quarter, which would have resulted in all the Model 3's built between April and June of next year missing the credit. Now it's almost certainly going to be hit in the first quarter of next year. The main thing that matters is how many cars the can build in the first 6 months of next year before the full credit runs out. Whether 200 or 1500 people get the credit this month is noise.

The tax credit doesn't just stop at the end of the 2nd quarter after they hit 200K. It gets reduced to $3750 and then later on reduced again to $1875. Let's not get more people confused by saying those that don't get their Model 3 by June will miss the credit. See here: Tax Credit Clarification

 

[gregincal]

The tax credit doesn't just stop at the end of the 2nd quarter after they hit 200K. It gets reduced to $3750 and then later on reduced again to $1875. Let's not get more people confused by saying those that don't get their Model 3 by June will miss the credit. See here: Tax Credit Clarification

You're quite right. I meant to type full credit. I fixed it.

 

[dsvick]

They can't update anyone until they have a better understanding of what production is going to be like in Q4.

All we're seeing is confirmation that they are uncertain of what Q4 production numbers of Model 3 are going to be.

I know, I was only commenting that the times the OP listed for writing and running the query were too long.

 

[siggyfreud]

So basically the slow ramp is a good thing for tax credit recipients so long as it stems deliveries in 2017. But then it translates to a bad thing if production isn't ramped up by the start of 2018, as then potential Model 3 tax credit takes may get replaced by more Model S and X buyers getting that advantage, because fewer are getting the Model 3.

So can we agree that a little slowness in 2017 is good for the tax credit, but that same slowness going into 2018 would be bad for the tax credit, as it relates to Model 3 owners?

 

[Barklikeadog]

I take this as good news. Keeps the total US deliveries down and is only about 3 weeks behind the revised schedule. This is still 257 more then I expected when I put in my deposit.

Elon vs Estimated Actual
July=30 (Actual 30)
August=100 (Estimated 60)
September=1,500 (Estimated 170)
Total=1,630 (Total 260)

Nothing to worry about. The ramp-up to 5k per week will happen very soon.
400k Model 3 in 2018. Book it

 

[run-the-joules]

seeing that those people from the US who reserve now will get their car before us Europeans who reserved on day 1 is more than annoying, and besides totally unfair.

How do you think we in the US felt seeing all the rad-as-hell cars made by VW and Audi and BMW that aren't just brought to the US later, but in fact are never brought over at all? It's about time we get some priority

 

[smak]

So basically the slow ramp is a good thing for tax credit recipients so long as it stems deliveries in 2017. But then it translates to a bad thing if production isn't ramped up by the start of 2018, as then potential Model 3 tax credit takes may get replaced by more Model S and X buyers getting that advantage, because fewer are getting the Model 3.

So can we agree that a little slowness in 2017 is good for the tax credit, but that same slowness going into 2018 would be bad for the tax credit, as it relates to Model 3 owners?

Yah. They were never hitting 200k in December. It was looking like January. That would have been good. 6 months of Model 3's at thousands a week produced.

If they now hit 200k in March, that's not good. But if they are even slower, and do it in April, that's now good again.

And I hope people realize, Elon saying he'd do something if 200k were close to being hit at the end of the quarter doesn't mean he's doing anything if it's Feb 15. If they look up, and it's March 24th, yes, he'll ship a bunch to Canada for a week, or just hang on a week.

He's certainly not going to do anything like that for 6 weeks.

 

[Electroman]

This 200k limit per manufacturer is wrong policy. It penalizes the early movers who take all the risk.

Instead it should be a combined 1 million units open to all manufacturers. First come first served. It rewards the early innovators. The late comers who come at the fag end of that run, or later, by then will have a mature industry with a consumer that is quite warmed up to EVs and should not need incentives.

 

[JBare]

That's interesting, you're in the SF area. I'm also Dec-Feb, on the east coast.

I wonder if that implies that the west-coast to east-coast thing is only for the first production runs...

I waited in line at Tysons Corner and probably got my order in just before 11am. My "Standard Battery" window is now Jan-Mar 18, I think it was earlier before but can't remember. I'm a non-employee/non-owner.

Gives me a little more time to install my charging station and save a few more bucks towards the down payment

 

[Max*]

I waited in line at Tysons Corner and probably got my order in just before 11am. My "Standard Battery" window is now Jan-Mar 18, I think it was earlier before but can't remember. I'm a non-employee/non-owner.

Gives me a little more time to install my charging station and save a few more bucks towards the down payment

Do you see yourself?

 

[diamond.g]

Do you see yourself?

View attachment 251773

What time was this taken?

 

[Bladerskb]

Remember Elon promised 150,000 cars in 2017 initially then Tesla promised 80,000 in 2017. Then it got reduced again to like 40,000.

Tesla Model 3: perfect production execution means around 80,000 vehicles in 2017

 

[ohmman]

promised

perfect production execution means around

Show me where Elon or Tesla promised. I've not seen that anywhere, especially not in your reference.

I suggest reading your linked article. Electrek backed into those numbers not from promises, but from the number of supplier orders Elon said were placed -- in the context that any of those things could throw their ramp completely off.

 

[gregincal]

Show me where Elon or Tesla promised. I've not seen that anywhere, especially not in your reference.

I suggest reading your linked article. Electrek backed into those numbers not from promises, but from the number of supplier orders Elon said were placed -- in the context that any of those things could throw their ramp completely off.

In addition to apparently not even reading the article quoted, I'm almost certain that the 150,000 was 150,000 total vehicles in 2017, not 150,000 Model 3s.

 

[ohmman]

In addition to apparently not even reading the article quoted, I'm almost certain that the 150,000 was 150,000 total vehicles in 2017, not 150,000 Model 3s.

Maybe time for the member to change his tagline?