Model 3 "Production Bottlenecks" lead to lower-than-anticipated Q3 delivery #s

[Garlan Garner]

Great news -- you can!

Just short the stock

For me.....if I have to think too much.....then its not a joke.

Lets see......shorting a stock.....what does that mean? What if I long a stock?

Just kidding. I got it.

Sound like when my group here at work has a Christmas party. We are all programmers. lol

 

[JBare]

Do you see yourself?

View attachment 251773

I was actually over in the Mall

 

[diamond.g]

Actually there is a bottleneck in their production. Samsung is manufacturing the OLED screens for the Iphone X. Imagine going from OLED
screen production for Samsung to Samsung AND Apple.

Shhh don't tell Iphone users that their new amazing revolutionary world breaking awesome screen is Samsung.

Just like they use TSMC CPU’s right?

 

[insaneoctane]

Glass is half full statement of the day:
If the delay pushes you past December, you will have a 2018 instead of a 2017 which most certainly will help your resale value

 

[AustinPowers]

Speaking of delays, anyone notice the Semi unveil will not be Oct 26 after all.
Here we go again...

Oh, and has this been mentioned yet?

Tesla replaces Model 3 headlights, battery, seats, and more while going through ‘production hell’

 

[KarenRei]

Meh. Some people are greatly bothered by the inevitable, expected, couple-month delays. Others aren't. Count me in the latter group

 

[S3XY]

Speaking of delays, anyone notice the Semi unveil will not be Oct 26 after all.
Here we go again...

Oh, and has this been mentioned yet?

Tesla replaces Model 3 headlights, battery, seats, and more while going through ‘production hell’

Shoot. Now how am I going to be able to delivery all my pumpkins in time for Halloween? Other than those who have invested in Tesla (and would want to affect the current price) who would really care enough about the semi delay to make note of it in a Model 3 forum? Oh, and another negative story as well.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Glass is half full statement of the day:
If the delay pushes you past December, you will have a 2018 instead of a 2017 which most certainly will help your resale value

Great thinking.

I'm a 2018 owner as it is. I'm waiting for AWD. Maybe its going to be 2019 now for me - assuming the delays and Teslas "self induced anti ramp up" . Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Tam]

Tesla cuts Model 3 part orders to Taiwan supplier Hota: report

Hota that makes gears and axles, reports that Tesla has decreased its order down to 3,000 per week from 5,000 sets starting December.

10,000 per week may start in May or June instead of March.

Wow! Thousands per week...Progress at last!

 

[kengchang]

12K in Dec ain't bad

 

[W84M3]

As per this post, the concerned company is already supplying 5k parts a week for October. As we all know, Tesla is not making 5k cars a week right now (we are all under the hypothesis 1 part/car). Lowering December part supply seems to me a result from the lower output right now, not per se the decrease of targeted output of 5k/week in December?

 

[Garlan Garner]

12K in Dec ain't bad

Where are you guys getting these numbers from?

 

[W84M3]

Where are you guys getting these numbers from?

3k/week x 4

 

[Garlan Garner]

3k/week x 4

I mean what source are you referencing that says that those numbers will be produced. in December?

That's just one vendor. What if Tesla has 2 vendors as they do with other parts?

The number of parts ordered from a single vendor doesn't always equate to the number of cars produced.

 

[avoigt]

Tesla cuts Model 3 part orders to Taiwan supplier Hota: report

Hota that makes gears and axles, reports that Tesla has decreased its order down to 3,000 per week from 5,000 sets starting December.

10,000 per week may start in May or June instead of March.

Wow! Thousands per week...Progress at last!

I call that big progress if true. My assumption about getting to 10k/week next year has been more late in 2018 but June is very much in the middle. Making the math - it brings us well in line with expectations of production numbers of about 500 k units.

Stating the obvious the spin doctors will say: well, 3k/week is 40% under plan in December. For a long term investors like me the delay we experience here looks just a like "a drop on a hot stone" ....

 

[Garlan Garner]

I call that big progress if true. My assumption about getting to 10k/week next year has been more late in 2018 but June is very much in the middle. Making the math - it brings us well in line with expectations of production numbers of about 500 k units.

..

Who's expectations?

 

[avoigt]

Who's expectations?

EMs expectations of communicated units produced in 2018

 

[Garlan Garner]

EMs expectations of communicated units produced in 2018

I agree with you.

I only asked because I got blasted here with folks saying that he really didn't promise and all kinds of excuses.

Anyway..... $326 to me is not a short traders bottleneck price - for those keeping up with the price over time.

 

[TaoJones]

Getting *to* 3K/week by the last full week of December rather than to 5K/week appears to be the new objective.

By no means do I expect Model 3 deliveries to exceed 10K cars in 2017.

Which is fine. After the usual 1-2 week factory shutdown for updates in January, presumably it’ll be full speed ahead with the production ramp incrementing through the rest of the year.

I do hope Elon gives some thought to optimizing the federal tax credit for as much of 2 full calendar quarters of production as possible once the 200K domestic deliveries threshold is crossed. That would mean as many as 78K additional cars qualifying for the full $7500 at the targeted 3K/week. 130K cars at 5K/week...

 

[dsvick]

I only asked because I got blasted here with folks saying that he really didn't promise and all kinds of excuses.

Expectations and estimates are not promises, I don't understand why you insist on taking them as such.