Model 3 "Production Bottlenecks" lead to lower-than-anticipated Q3 delivery #s

[Max*]

tempest in a f'ing teapot - non-issue. Remember everybody b*tching and moaning over AP1's release delays? No? How about Model X delays? Model X quality issues? Model S delays? Yada yada yada blah blah blah - you'll forget about this also. They will ramp.

You must be new, this is TMC. People complain about everything here, for eternity.

IRL? No one gives two snots.

 

[smak]

I think most people here 3 months ago would have thought they'd be around where they are now.

But then Elon tweeted and made us all expect way more.

 

[Garlan Garner]

tempest in a f'ing teapot - non-issue. Remember everybody b*tching and moaning over AP1's release delays? No? How about Model X delays? Model X quality issues? Model S delays? Yada yada yada blah blah blah - you'll forget about this also. They will ramp.

You could have kept going because you are correct. Look at all of the missed dates. I'm not angry, but I thought Tesla would have stopped doing that by now. AP2 was supposed to be smooth as silk....when? January?

 

[Garlan Garner]

I think most people here 3 months ago would have thought they'd be around where they are now.

But then Elon tweeted and made us all expect way more.

Elon tweeted that the Semi Reveal is October 26th.

Should we expect it to be a different date? What date do you have?

 

[Lump]

Stop believing dates, stop reading tweets, stop believing the hype, lower your expectations & you will be a lot happier.

 

[Phrixotrichus]

If that were true then there would be no reason for Apple to release new products in stages. They don't. They release to their biggest markets where they are going to sell millions of units first and then they release to smaller markets after production is further ramped up.

you realize that you said the exact same thing as I did?

 

[xav-]

Who would have thought that Elons predictions were going to be way off???

 

[xav-]

Apple doesn't announce their production expectations by model whereas Tesla does.

All reports indicate that Apple is facing enormous supplier issues getting enough of the Romeo & Juliet components for the new iPhone X, but analysts still expect them to ship millions of them.

Tim Cook, despite all of his flaws is a supply chain zen master of the highest order. Apple books billions of dollars of business with suppliers who move mountains to meet Apples demands... or risk losing the biggest and most profitable customer most of them will ever have.

Elon and Tesla's board make really lofty expectation statements that are pretty much never met and they don't really get penalized for it.

Based on what we now know about the #s of Model 3 vehicles built in Q3 it makes the prediction of 100K-200K cars in 2017 more laughable.

If production problems are "solved" as Tesla asserts and there are fewer than 120 days left in 2017 then I would expect they are extremely close to hitting their 1,000+ a week production rate... but based on VINs and sightings that is not the case at all.

When we see thousands of non-Tesla employees rapidly getting their build finalization requests in the next week or two I will believe they really have overcome the problems.

People here think I'm down on Tesla. I'm not. I think they are the #1 innovator in automotive technology today, bar none. That doesn't mean that they will ever figure this mass production thing out under current management.

You could say I'm more of a pragmatist than a rainbows and unicorns (and thinks Elon whizzes lemonade) guy.

Apple mainly solved the supply chain issue problem by making boring products again. Just like the old 1990s apple before Steve Jobs came back. The apple events have become so boring nobody watches them anymore.

 

[AustinPowers]

Perhaps they should have only accepted US reservations to begin with. I was surprised when they did initial orders worldwide, since I was sure they wouldn't ship worldwide to begin with. I figured they wanted as impressive a reservation total as they could get.

...to then act suprised or even shocked at the number, which will put them into "production hell". Right.

Everything you say is true, I'll only add that this is not Tesla's first rodeo. They have been doing this now for 5+ years and you would think that they would have a handle on their designs and supplier competency.

Other manufacturers do not announce they are in production with a vehicle and then several months later admit they only made a handful of them.

Absolutely.
Of course, we here on TMC might know that Tesla has a long history of overpromise underdeliver, but even we (or at least some of us) would expect them to get better over time. Not to experience the same lame thing over and over again. Oh, did the Semi unveiling take place at the end of September, as originally announced?
I thought so. Powerwall delivery? Solar roof? See a trend?

 

[AustinPowers]

Of course if all you unhappy people cancel, I will get mine sooner. If I get it in 2018, I will be happy and I’m 77.

See, even if I don't cancel, if you haven't even got a reservation yet, you will still get yours sooner. Simple as that. So in any case it doesn't matter whether I (or anyone from Europe / Asia) cancels, at least not when it comes to when you will get yours.

 

[RubberToe]

Stop believing dates, stop reading tweets, stop believing the hype, lower your expectations & you will be a lot happier.

The glass half empty crowd aren't content unless they have something to complain about. The glass half full crowd, like Lump here, are also content, and don't sweat the small stuff.

This entire forum is basically a giant Rorschach test. Looking at Tesla the company, what do you see?

Glass half early peep: A company that always misses it's deadlines, always over promises, burning cash, way overvalued, nothing more than the latest story stock.

Glass half full peep: A company that created from scratch, a product that no existing company ever did. Those that tried failed miserably (EV1). Led by a CEO whose stated ambition is to change the world by leading others and making the transition to sustainable transportation.

I've said this before, and I'll say it again: Elon Musk is the single most powerful force for good in the world. Period.

Ramp is gonna happen. Doesn't matter, let me repeat this for the glass half empty crowd, IT DOES NOT MATTER one bit whether they hit 5,000 cars per week in December, January or February. It is going to happen. They have all the resources they need to do that. A couple nice big factories too.

Look at your glass again, it's actually full to the brim, you are just having a hard time understanding that.

RT

 

[THXULTRA]

Sorry, but you misunderstood my post.
I completely agree with you that Tesla should not rush out an unfinished product. I don't have any issues with the general idea of starting deliveries close to home and going from there. Neither do I mind that they do batching.

But there has to be a point were they believe they have nailed it quality-wise. From then on it should be back to the first come first served basis. Not the way it is that anyone from the US can jump ahead, even if he ordered one and a half years after those day one reservation holders from countries other than the US. Or as I said, they should have restricted reservations for the first year to US customers only. That way, those that reserved first would get their cars first, as it should be. It is not as if they were demand-constrained at any time, even with just US customers. Perhaps "production hell" would have only been "production purgatory" then

I see why they are sticking to US deliveries first also though. At least for the first few months. Shipping to more countries add complexity. Right hand drive models, supporting issues in multiple countries etc. I agree it sucks to have people bumped ahead of you and also agree it isn't fair if that is still the case months down the road. I do think problem resolution and also getting people in the US the tax credit are the reasons.

 

[voip-ninja]

Apple mainly solved the supply chain issue problem by making boring products again. Just like the old 1990s apple before Steve Jobs came back. The apple events have become so boring nobody watches them anymore.

I will have to leave a reminder to post the picture in a few weeks of 100+ people camped out at the local apple store waiting to buy iPhone X.

 

[xav-]

I will have to leave a reminder to post the picture in a few weeks of 100+ people camped out at the local apple store waiting to buy iPhone X.

It's gonna be a disaster in sales. I wish I could bet on this. Just like the Apple Watch. But Tim Cook will keep inventories low and just say "oh look it's so popular we re sold out"

Just like with the Apple Watch "it's so popular" but sales are not disclosed. Then in companie's 10K you realize how negligible sales are. At least that's how they used to do.. maybe it changed.

By the way I own an iPad an iPhone an Apple TV and a MacBook Air.. i am just very disappointed by Tim Cook and Jon ive.

I would be curious to check the Apple headquarters and see how many teslas are parked there.

Just my 2 cents. I will never buy an android phone BTW, I just hope my iPhone 6s will last forever so I don't have to spend $699 for an iPhone 8 which is virtually identical to mine

 

[voip-ninja]

It's gonna be a disaster in sales. I wish I could bet on this. Just like the Apple Watch. But Tim Cook will keep inventories low and just say "oh look it's so popular we re sold out"

Just like with the Apple Watch "it's so popular" but sales are not disclosed. Then in companie's 10K you realize how negligible sales are. At least that's how they used to do.. maybe it changed.

By the way I own an iPad an iPhone an Apple TV and a MacBook Air.. i am just very disappointed by Tim Cook and Jon ive.

I would be curious to check the Apple headquarters and see how many teslas are parked there.

Just my 2 cents. I will never buy an android phone BTW, I just hope my iPhone 6s will last forever so I don't have to spend $699 for an iPhone 8 which is virtually identical to mine

I don't want to drag this off topic any further other than refute a couple of more things...

Apple Watch is the best selling watch (smart or otherwise) in the world. I don't consider that a failure.

I'm no fan of Ives & Cook either but you have to give them credit where credit is due.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I don't want to drag this off topic any further other than refute a couple of more things...

Apple Watch is the best selling watch (smart or otherwise) in the world. I don't consider that a failure.

I'm no fan of Ives & Cook either but you have to give them credit where credit is due.

Apple watch in no way sells out all of android watches combined. There are even individual companies that sell more smartwatches than apple.


Apple Slips to Third in Wearables


I suppose because of the Model 3's keys being RFID.....smart watches won't be able to open and close or control them.

 

[voip-ninja]

Apple watch in no way sells out all of android watches combined. There are even individual companies that sell more smartwatches than apple.


Apple Slips to Third in Wearables

You are comparing "wearables", a category that includes $50 fitness trackers to WATCHES. Apple is the #1 WATCH company in the world now, ahead of SWATCH, Rolex, Timex and all others.

Until Apple decides it wants to compete in the "cheap fitness tracker" category I don't think I'd be dancing on their grave.

Apple's Watch just beat Rolex to become the most popular on Earth — here's why that makes sense.

 

[Garlan Garner]

You are comparing "wearables", a category that includes $50 fitness trackers to WATCHES. Apple is the #1 WATCH company in the world now, ahead of SWATCH, Rolex, Timex and all others.

Until Apple decides it wants to compete in the "cheap fitness tracker" category I don't think I'd be dancing on their grave.

Apple's Watch just beat Rolex to become the most popular on Earth — here's why that makes sense.

Your article writer might have to talk to this and other article writers. There are hundreds of articles that disagree with you.

By the Numbers: 21 Amazing Apple Watch Statistics

 

[Barklikeadog]

It's gonna be a disaster in sales. I wish I could bet on this. Just like the Apple Watch. But Tim Cook will keep inventories low and just say "oh look it's so popular we re sold out"

Just like with the Apple Watch "it's so popular" but sales are not disclosed. Then in companie's 10K you realize how negligible sales are. At least that's how they used to do.. maybe it changed.

By the way I own an iPad an iPhone an Apple TV and a MacBook Air.. i am just very disappointed by Tim Cook and Jon ive.

I would be curious to check the Apple headquarters and see how many teslas are parked there.

Just my 2 cents. I will never buy an android phone BTW, I just hope my iPhone 6s will last forever so I don't have to spend $699 for an iPhone 8 which is virtually identical to mine

Actually there is a bottleneck in their production. Samsung is manufacturing the OLED screens for the Iphone X. Imagine going from OLED
screen production for Samsung to Samsung AND Apple.

Shhh don't tell Iphone users that their new amazing revolutionary world breaking awesome screen is Samsung.

 

[SageBrush]

I wish I could bet on this.

Great news -- you can!

Just short the stock