The drone flyover yesterday suggests a stockpile of Model 3s of more than 500 and perhaps a 1,000. If tomorrow is the last day of production in 2017, the stockpile may be the result of the year-end push, knowing that deliveries could be completed up to December 31st. If the lots that are full now become empty on the 31st, we'll know that this scenario is likely what happened. If the lots are still full on the 31st, we can assume that production continued over the holidays and the 500-1,000 pool is the steady-state for the current level of production/delivery. If the latter is true, hats off to Tesla employees for their personal sacrifice to maximize the ramp.
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Model 3 Production Rate Poll
- Thread starter ValueAnalyst
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The drone flyover yesterday suggests a stockpile of Model 3s of more than 500 and perhaps a 1,000. If tomorrow is the last day of production in 2017, the stockpile may be the result of the year-end push, knowing that deliveries could be completed up to December 31st. If the lots that are full now become empty on the 31st, we'll know that this scenario is likely what happened. If the lots are still full on the 31st, we can assume that production continued over the holidays and the 500-1,000 pool is the steady-state for the current level of production/delivery. If the latter is true, hats off to Tesla employees for their personal sacrifice to maximize the ramp.
It's not clear to me that there's stockpiling going on; I think this may simply be inventory buildup as normal course of production ramp.
Not sure if the last week of December will be off. Maybe first week of January can be given to employees as time-off as recognition of hard work.
RTPEV
Active Member
I'm having a hard time seeing this. Maybe you saw something I did not. I see about 300 cars in the "diagonal" lines. Maybe another 150 in the other spots. Definitely nowhere near 1000.
Not that I'm disappointed at all. I think the cars in these lots are not being stockpiled at all but this is only a temporary holding area until they get shipped out. I get the sense (obviously without having witnessed it myself) that the cars in this lot are transitory and new ones come in as old ones go out. Plus between trying to get people their cars in this tax year and close out the quarter with a bang, I just can't see any reason for them to stockpile anyway.
The delivery ramp appears to be slower than the production ramp. Eventually they will reach steady-state and the stockpile of Model 3s will plateau. If production stops during the holidays, the stockpile will shrink. Let's see what happens.
Thanks for making this effort. Reports like yours and the drone videos are critical to assessing the Model 3 ramp. One comment made by a Tesla employee during a Model 3 order phone call was "She told me production was moving fast..." (Model 3, Tesla owner configurations begin, #1029).
Final count, including ALL vehicles in various places in the lots: 2145 cars.
This does not include cars on the car carriers themselves.
This does not include cars on the car carriers themselves.
I think almost all in the first count are model 3. The NE lot with the car carriers are mostly S/X. I think at least half of the rest are 3s. Minimum 1/3 are 3s (~700). I think at least half are 3s... so approx 1-1.2k are 3s. WAG.
More information on the new cars parked at the Fremont factory. Reuters (11-28-17) interviewed 9 Tesla workers as their basis for the following statement:
"Known as “kickbacks” within Tesla, these vehicles have glitches as minor as dents and scratches to more complex troubles such as malfunctioning seats. Easy fixes are made swiftly on the factory floor, workers said. Trickier cases head to one of Tesla’s outdoor parking lots to await repair. The backlog in one of those two lots, dubbed the “yard,” has exceeded 2,000 vehicles at times, workers told Reuters. Tesla denied to Reuters that such “repair lots” exist."
Even if Reuter's account is true, not sure of any significance to Tesla's Model 3 ramp since unfinished cars will eventually be delivered, although slower than if all of the cars were ready for delivery.
"Known as “kickbacks” within Tesla, these vehicles have glitches as minor as dents and scratches to more complex troubles such as malfunctioning seats. Easy fixes are made swiftly on the factory floor, workers said. Trickier cases head to one of Tesla’s outdoor parking lots to await repair. The backlog in one of those two lots, dubbed the “yard,” has exceeded 2,000 vehicles at times, workers told Reuters. Tesla denied to Reuters that such “repair lots” exist."
Even if Reuter's account is true, not sure of any significance to Tesla's Model 3 ramp since unfinished cars will eventually be delivered, although slower than if all of the cars were ready for delivery.
Based on my count, the 2000 vehicles in the “yard” is not possible. The total count for all the yards is 2145.
Ergo Reuters is FOS.
Since they stated it’s an outdoor yard in the quote.
Ergo Reuters is FOS.
Since they stated it’s an outdoor yard in the quote.
Reciprocity
Active Member
Why do people assume the cars in yard are being stockpiled and not delivered in batches and replaced by new vehicles? It's almost guaranteed to be this way because Tesla Cannot hold cars in the factory. As they are being produced, they have to go some where. Are you all assuming they shut down the factory last week after filling the lots and everyone is just in there sipping lattes?
If they are Producing 500-1000/w then those lots would need to be turned over every week or two depending on production rate. To confirm, we would only need a few shots taken every day at the same time to see if that part of the lot has changed.
Let's not all just assume they are stockpiling cars and if you do, explain where the other 100-200 cars a day are going while these take up all the storage space. Or explain why Tesla filled the lot very quickly then stopped making cars. Because someone would have noticed that lot as it's right on the freeway exit ramp from the flyover.
If they are Producing 500-1000/w then those lots would need to be turned over every week or two depending on production rate. To confirm, we would only need a few shots taken every day at the same time to see if that part of the lot has changed.
Let's not all just assume they are stockpiling cars and if you do, explain where the other 100-200 cars a day are going while these take up all the storage space. Or explain why Tesla filled the lot very quickly then stopped making cars. Because someone would have noticed that lot as it's right on the freeway exit ramp from the flyover.
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Because Tesla employees said they were being stock piled. Because drone videos were said to show little turnover. Because a Tesla employee told a new owner that production would stop from December 23rd until the end of the year. I don't know the truth and that is why I and others have been observing, analyzing and reporting on an important measure of the Model 3 ramp. Sarcastic comments and assumptions/numbers without a source reference are not helpful.
Median is exactly at 1,000 per week. Variance is low, and The Crowd may possibly be spot on given pics/videos out of Fremont.
The median was just below 1,000 per week.
The Crowd got it right this time, almost exactly. Impressive.
The Crowd got it right this time, almost exactly. Impressive.
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