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Model 3 Resale Speculation

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Using the orginal low price hypothesis , Is it correct to speculate that a no option SR would have a low depreciation % then?
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In my opinion that is absolutely correct. I used to sell cars for a living and the general rule of thumb is that factory options depreciate MUCH faster then the base car itself. Example: I just sold my 2013 Mercedes C250 sedan and bought a Model 3SR+. On the Mercedes original window sticker "diamond white paint" was a $1,515 option. When I did an online appraisal 2 weeks ago to determine the value of my used Mercedes the "diamond white paint" increased the value of my car by less then $50. That is a depreciation of 97% in 6 years. The car itself stickered at $42,935 and I sold it for $10,000 which is a depreciation of about 77% in six years. Most options would be similar to this example, for instance on my model three I paid $2,000 for red multi-coat, $1,000 for Black & White interior, and $1,500 for 19" Sport wheels. I fully expect that in 4-6 years those options will hardly increase the value of my Model 3 at all compared to a Model 3 without those options. One option on Tesla cars that bucks this trend would be the larger battery options which tend to hold there value better.

The history of car depreciation proves that, generally speaking, base models depreciate at a lower percentage then their highly-optioned brethren. So most likely, a base model 3 SR will depreciate at a lower % then the other more expensive model 3's. Of course there can always be exceptions, but generally speaking this holds true with all cars.
 
I probably wouldn't buy a Tesla without AP hardware at any price.

Awww, I really liked my 2013 P85. They are still great cars, even though Tesla continually forgets about them when they do software updates and breaks stuff a lot. Those rwd P models are tons of fun.

I wonder how long it will be before people say they won’t buy an AP1 car at any price? Probably once FSD is real, I would imagine. Downside of owning a Tesla long term I suppose.
 
Awww, I really liked my 2013 P85. They are still great cars, even though Tesla continually forgets about them when they do software updates and breaks stuff a lot. Those rwd P models are tons of fun.

I wonder how long it will be before people say they won’t buy an AP1 car at any price? Probably once FSD is real, I would imagine. Downside of owning a Tesla long term I suppose.

I think you're probably right- NoA is nice but a lot of folks don't seem to find a huge benefit to AP2.x/3 compared to 1...if the FSD computer changes that you'd likely see AP1 car values drop somewhat as pre-AP1 cars have... still don't expect they'd get any worse than comparable ICE cars though.

The fact the 3 started with 2.5, can be upgraded easily to 3, and thusfar Tesla is guiding no change to sensor suite is "good" for resale as long as that remains true.... (if it's ever not then as mentioned it'll come down to if they keep their promise to the pre-March 2019 FSD buyers to upgrade as needed)
 
Lane departure warning and blind spot alert - my main and only reasons for not shopping for AP1 cars anymore. Everything else is optional. I don't need sentry mode - there are good dashcam setups which record when motion is detected and I don't care about FSD for now.

Honestly, with the crazy traffic nowadays and the fact that way older cars have had these features since ages ago they're sort of a necessity than an optional feature, especially considering how much the car still costs...
 
They seem to be holding up pretty well if Craigslist for SFO or LAX is any indication. Despite how prevalent they are there, I didn't see that many for what I was looking for (AWD/P), and prices seemed pretty high. KBB gives me $52,676 private party for my 9/2018 AWD that I paid $61 for. Pretty amazing if I could even get $50 for it after getting the tax credit.
 
I’ve wanted the X for years. The 3 was to hold me over for the pickup or Y. But I managed a few promotions and decided you can’t take it with you... I love the 3. Great car. But I’m a truck/SUV guy. Once my wife got her 3. I saw the writing on the wall and sold my S. 6 months of driving a gas car... I bought the 3. Didn’t know when I bought my 3 the X would increase in range and improve only 6 months later... what can ya do?
 
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How do you feel resale value will be 3+ years down the line?

I personally feel that they will depreciate faster than expected (even though I am hoping this is not the case). While it seems the few used ones on the market are holding their value relatively well, I feel the scale with which these cars are produced will cause them to share a depreciation curve with their ICE brethren, specifically other luxury mid-size sedans, such as the 3 Series/C-class.

Thoughts?

Not sure if you have seen this:

https://electrek.co/2019/01/24/tesla-model-3-tops-resale-value-report/
 
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