Model 3 Resale Speculation

[Knightshade]

Ah, I see I was not accurate enough with my statement to convey my intent. Hardware 3 is the only autopilot upgrade Tesla has ever offered

Given this is the first time one has even been possible, I'm not sure how that tells us anything useful

AP1 was never intended for L5 full self driving with just a single camera and radar alongside the ultrasonics as its sensor suite.

We've been repeatedly told the AP2+ sensor suite is intended for that.

As such they designed the "brain" to be easily swappable. And the first time doing so has been needed- they are indeed swapping it.

That suggests they're fully intending to upgrade cars they promised L5 to however much ends up being needed to reach L5.

Indeed- they explicitly said so back when HW2.5 came along and people were worried there was some vital upgrade being missed out on.

It turned out the 2 vs 2.5 difference didn't actually matter so they didn't have to do any retrofits there- HW3 is the first time it matters- and they're upgrading that.


So I'd say their history is more consistent with that narrative than the one you suggest.

 

[glide]

Given this is the first time one has even been possible, I'm not sure how that tells us anything useful

AP1 was never intended for L5 full self driving with just a single camera and radar alongside the ultrasonics as its sensor suite.

We've been repeatedly told the AP2+ sensor suite is intended for that.

As such they designed the "brain" to be easily swappable. And the first time doing so has been needed- they are indeed swapping it.

That suggests they're fully intending to upgrade cars they promised L5 to however much ends up being needed to reach L5.

Indeed- they explicitly said so back when HW2.5 came along and people were worried there was some vital upgrade being missed out on.

It turned out the 2 vs 2.5 difference didn't actually matter so they didn't have to do any retrofits there- HW3 is the first time it matters- and they're upgrading that.


So I'd say their history is more consistent with that narrative than the one you suggest.

To think that L5 is happening *and* that Tesla is going to upgrade the existing fleet?!

Woah. Too much kool-aid.

 

[Knightshade]

To think that L5 is happening *and* that Tesla is going to upgrade the existing fleet?!

Woah. Too much kool-aid.

Or, ya know, citing what Tesla explicitly, and repeatedly, has promised to do in writing.

At the time HW2.5 came out Tesla stated this:

we still expect to achieve full self-driving capability with safety more than twice as good as the average human driver without making any hardware changes to HW 2.0. If this does not turn out to be the case, which we think is highly unlikely, we will upgrade customers to the 2.5 computer at no cost.

As it turned out the 2.5 computer wasn't sufficient- so instead everyone who bought FSD will get the 3.0 computer instead. For free.


So yes if HW3 isn't sufficient either I'd fully expect them to upgrade (at least the pre-March 2019) FSD owners to whatever does turn out to be needed- as they seem have have repeatedly indicated they will absolutely do.


If you have any factual info showing otherwise, please provide it

 

[glide]

Or, ya know, citing what Tesla explicitly, and repeatedly, has promised to do in writing.

At the time HW2.5 came out Tesla stated this:




As it turned out the 2.5 computer wasn't sufficient- so instead everyone who bought FSD will get the 3.0 computer instead. For free.


So yes if HW3 isn't sufficient either I'd fully expect them to upgrade (at least the pre-March 2019) FSD owners to whatever does turn out to be needed- as they seem have have repeatedly indicated they will absolutely do.


If you have any factual info showing otherwise, please provide it

Are you new here? We can all point to many things Tesla promised in writing that we’re complete lies.

In fact, did you know your car can come find you in a parking lot right as of this very minute?! Go try it out and get back to us.

 

[OCR1]

I don't personally see Model 3's ever reaching level 5 and receiving regulatory approval. I think we will get there eventually but by the time it happens cars will be a lot more advanced than the current Model 3 and will require more than just an FSD board swap before we finally figure everything out. Just my personal opinion though, so don't bother asking me to cite facts beyond the thoughts in my head.

 

[Cheburashka]

Or, ya know, citing what Tesla explicitly, and repeatedly, has promised to do in writing.

At the time HW2.5 came out Tesla stated this:




As it turned out the 2.5 computer wasn't sufficient- so instead everyone who bought FSD will get the 3.0 computer instead. For free.


So yes if HW3 isn't sufficient either I'd fully expect them to upgrade (at least the pre-March 2019) FSD owners to whatever does turn out to be needed- as they seem have have repeatedly indicated they will absolutely do.


If you have any factual info showing otherwise, please provide it

Just like the promised MCU1 to MCU2 upgrade, almost 800hp P85DL, magical fix for our yellowing screens on S and X, and I don't know what else...

With Tesla, until you see it, I wouldn't believe a thing that's written or said. I am also optimistic but also realistic at this point.

 

[Knightshade]

Are you new here? We can all point to many things Tesla promised in writing that we’re complete lies.

In fact, did you know your car can come find you in a parking lot right as of this very minute?! Go try it out and get back to us.

I'm asking for things Tesla explicitly promised, took money for, and then refused to actually ever provide.

The one example you actually gave is something that actually exists but is currently only available to early-access folks- and eventually will roll out to the rest of the relevant owners.

Just like the promised MCU1 to MCU2 upgrade

How much did you pay Tesla for that? Was it $0.00 so far? I beleive it is.

On top of that, they've confirmed it's still planned-

Elon Musk on Twitter

That's from just a couple months ago (and suggested you'd maybe get the chance to do it same time you get the FSD computer swapped in.... it's unclear if that implies it's only for S/X owners with APHW2.x but MCU1 or not)

Still, that example doesn't fit the "paid tesla for something they never delivered" situation with FSD.

, almost 800hp P85DL,

IIRC the issue there was they originally did a lazy job and just listed it with the combined motor max HP added from both motors… Teslas CTO addresses that here, pointing out that rating is actually the only one the EU legally requires them to publish-

Tesla All Wheel Drive (Dual Motor) Power and Torque Specifications

But that it was battery-limited so it couldn’t consistently hit that max on both motors at the same time…. (and when they updated the figure to 532 they put a * on it labeled “battery limited max motor shaft power”)

Still that one did end up being legit deceptive to many- and IIRC they did end up paying out like $14,000 each to a bunch of owners over that though and haven't repeated anything like it since.

That said- If they decide to tell me they can't deliver L5 FSD on my car ever and here's a full refund for it I'm fine with that

magical fix for our yellowing screens on S and X

From reading places like here-
yellow border - need advise

It suggests they were just replacing them for a while with the same part that'd eventually have the same problem, but currently owners are being told to wait on a more long-term fix (possibly an upgraded part?)

Which given it's largely cosmetic seems fine as long it they still warranty any that are reported and told to wait and the waiting puts them beyond warranty period.

 

[glide]

I'm asking for things Tesla explicitly promised, took money for, and then refused to actually ever provide.

The one example you actually gave is something that actually exists but is currently only available to early-access folks- and eventually will roll out to the rest of the relevant owners.






How much did you pay Tesla for that? Was it $0.00 so far? I beleive it is.

On top of that, they've confirmed it's still planned-

Elon Musk on Twitter

That's from just a couple months ago (and suggested you'd maybe get the chance to do it same time you get the FSD computer swapped in.... it's unclear if that implies it's only for S/X owners with APHW2.x but MCU1 or not)

Still, that example doesn't fit the "paid tesla for something they never delivered" situation with FSD.



IIRC the issue there was they originally did a lazy job and just listed it with the combined motor max HP added from both motors… Teslas CTO addresses that here, pointing out that rating is actually the only one the EU legally requires them to publish-

Tesla All Wheel Drive (Dual Motor) Power and Torque Specifications

But that it was battery-limited so it couldn’t consistently hit that max on both motors at the same time…. (and when they updated the figure to 532 they put a * on it labeled “battery limited max motor shaft power”)

Still that one did end up being legit deceptive to many- and IIRC they did end up paying out like $14,000 each to a bunch of owners over that though and haven't repeated anything like it since.

That said- If they decide to tell me they can't deliver L5 FSD on my car ever and here's a full refund for it I'm fine with that










From reading places like here-
yellow border - need advise

It suggests they were just replacing them for a while with the same part that'd eventually have the same problem, but currently owners are being told to wait on a more long-term fix (possibly an upgraded part?)

Which given it's largely cosmetic seems fine as long it they still warranty any that are reported and told to wait and the waiting puts them beyond warranty period.

They took money for FSD, which does not exist.
They took money for 700+HP P85D’s which do not exist
They claim advanced summon exists FOR ALL vehicles, which it does not.
They made all sorts of ridiculous claims about AP1’s capabilities which were not delivered and scrubbed from the website.

Are you really serious with this nonsense? Wait a minute...Elon?! Is that you?!

 

[Knightshade]

They took money for FSD, which does not exist.

Of course it exists.

Everyone who bought since March has active FSD features in fact

Those who bought before did so with the in writing understanding no features were yet available to them but would come later.

They still are. In fact they're also getting a free computer upgrade to make it happen.

So, once again, your example of something anyone paid for but was then told they'd never get, fails to be an actual example of that.

They took money for 700+HP P85D’s which do not exist

Well, not quite. Each motor, added together, does sum to the hp they claimed.

The battery just can't run both at full output at the same time.

And as mentioned they ended up paying out like 14k to a lot of impacted owners over that and haven't done such a thing since.

They claim advanced summon exists FOR ALL vehicles

No, they don't.


Pretty obviously too since if you didn't buy any driver aids you won't ever have it. And if you only bought basic AP you won't ever have it. And if you have a pre AP-2 car you won't ever have it.


So again your example....fails to be one.

They made all sorts of ridiculous claims about AP1’s capabilities which were not delivered and scrubbed from the website.

...like? (hint: the wayback machine exists, should be no trouble to find sourced links for whatever your claims are)

Last time I recall that topic coming up it turned out AP1 actually delivered on nearly every promise.... (and Tesla at least had a good excuse for the little it didn't, in that they lost access to the vision code when Mobileye quit working with them).

Are you really serious with this nonsense?

I mean- just like with the depreciation discussion- you've been given specific, sourced, facts....and keep denying them.

When asked to support your own claims you give examples that aren't actually examples and no sources of any kind....

So I agree there's nonsense, just not about who is posting it

 

[glide]

Of course it exists.

Everyone who bought since March has active FSD features in fact

Those who bought before did so with the in writing understanding no features were yet available to them but would come later.

They still are. In fact they're also getting a free computer upgrade to make it happen.

So, once again, your example of something anyone paid for but was then told they'd never get, fails to be an actual example of that.




Well, not quite. Each motor, added together, does sum to the hp they claimed.

The battery just can't run both at full output at the same time.

And as mentioned they ended up paying out like 14k to a lot of impacted owners over that and haven't done such a thing since.




No, they don't.


Pretty obviously too since if you didn't buy any driver aids you won't ever have it. And if you only bought basic AP you won't ever have it. And if you have a pre AP-2 car you won't ever have it.


So again your example....fails to be one.





...like? (hint: the wayback machine exists, should be no trouble to find sourced links for whatever your claims are)

Last time I recall that topic coming up it turned out AP1 actually delivered on nearly every promise.... (and Tesla at least had a good excuse for the little it didn't, in that they lost access to the vision code when Mobileye quit working with them).






I mean- just like with the depreciation discussion- you've been given specific, sourced, facts....and keep denying them.

When asked to support your own claims you give examples that aren't actually examples and no sources of any kind....

So I agree there's nonsense, just not about who is posting it

You have some serious problems if that is the way you view the company.

Riddle me this; why did they pay out money to owners of P85Ds after being threatened with a lawsuit over the HP issue?

It wasn’t a simple miscalculation. It was straight up fraud. And they haven’t “done it again” because it is illegal and costs them money.

To say Tesla is disingenuous with its promises and marketing is being kind. I hope you enjoy your Model 3. It’s the only massed produced vehicle that will appreciate in value. Per Elon.

 

[Knightshade]

You have some serious problems if that is the way you view the company.

Riddle me this; why did they pay out money to owners of P85Ds after being threatened with a lawsuit over the HP issue?

It wasn’t a simple miscalculation.

I never claimed it was one.

Please stop making up things nobody said.

I said it was lazy.

The numbers they stated were factual but not practical.

They listed the front motors max output. They listed the rear motors max output. Both are correct.

Then they listed the total of those two numbers. The problem was the battery can usually not supply enough simultaneous power to max both motors at the same time.

Go read the link I provided where Teslas CTO explains this in more detail.

It was straight up fraud.

Well, no... if it had been they'd have lost their lawsuits as well as faced some potential criminal issues.

It certainly was confusing to consumers though- hence their payouts as suggested by some consumer agencies, and them adding that * comment on hp descriptions going forward to reflect this limit.

To say Tesla is disingenuous with its promises and marketing is being kind.

Since you hate the company that makes you car so much, and apparently assume they're out to get you at every turn, and claim you have suffered 2-3x the depreciation the average S owner has... why do you still have the car?

 

[glide]

I never claimed it was one.

Please stop making up things nobody said.

I said it was lazy.

The numbers they stated were factual but not practical.

They listed the front motors max output. They listed the rear motors max output. Both are correct.

Then they listed the total of those two numbers. The problem was the battery can usually not supply enough simultaneous power to max both motors at the same time.

Go read the link I provided where Teslas CTO explains this in more detail.




Well, no... if it had been they'd have lost their lawsuits as well as faced some potential criminal issues.

It certainly was confusing to consumers though- hence their payouts as suggested by some consumer agencies, and them adding that * comment on hp descriptions going forward to reflect this limit.




Since you hate the company that makes you car so much, and apparently assume they're out to get you at every turn, and claim you have suffered 2-3x the depreciation the average S owner has... why do you still have the car?

Calling a criminal act the result of laziness? I don’t buy it. Neither does anyone else. Except you, Elon.

 

[OCR1]

Calling a criminal act the result of laziness? I don’t buy it. Neither does anyone else. Except you, Elon.

To be fair, Tesla does so many ridiculous things that I have a hard time myself trying to determine if they are done with intentionality or just mere incompetence.

 

[Knightshade]

Calling a criminal act the result of laziness? I don’t buy it. Neither does anyone else. Except you, Elon.

It wasn't criminal.

You can tell because nobody was arrested and no criminal charges were filed against any person or company.

So once again you "don't buy" facts, no matter how well sourced that are.

No wonder you imagine I'm a billionaire playboy wasting him time continually correcting your erroneous claims

If I were actually a billionaire playboy I'd be out saving Gotham.

I ask again though-

Since you hate the company that makes you car so much, and apparently assume they're out to get you at every turn, and claim you have suffered 2-3x the depreciation the average S owner has... why do you still have the car?

 

[glide]

It wasn't criminal.

You can tell because nobody was arrested and no criminal charges were filed against any person or company.

So once again you "don't buy" facts, no matter how well sourced that are.

No wonder you imagine I'm a billionaire playboy wasting him time continually correcting your erroneous claims

If I were actually a billionaire playboy I'd be out saving Gotham.

I ask again though-

Since you hate the company that makes you car so much, and apparently assume they're out to get you at every turn, and claim you have suffered 2-3x the depreciation the average S owner has... why do you still have the car?

What do you mean I “claim” I suffered the depreciation level?

What was the new sticker price of a P85D in 2015? 130K

What do they sell for now? 50-55K

Are you having difficulty doing the math?

 

[gobble]

I think Knightshade is smoking a little too much of Elon's pot.

 

[Knightshade]

What do you mean I “claim” I suffered the depreciation level?

You claim the depreciation on your car is vastly higher (2-3 times higher) than what factually exists across thousands of used Model S sales in multiple studies on the topic from 2016, 2018, and 2019 all state is what I mean.

I even posted several links to the relevant facts and data. While you've, once again, disagreed with all of it without providing a shred of contrary evidence or sourcing.

What was the new sticker price of a P85D in 2015? 130K

What do they sell for now? 50-55K

And yet when I actually checked the one reference you did post (used cars on tesla.com) they had no P85Ds for sale at any price at the time (this is posted back on page 1 I think?) and they had only ONE non-P and non-AWD and AP1 regular S85 listed... for $51,800.


I did just check again- that 51.8k one is gone... now they have a regular, non-AWD, AP1 S85 for.... $52,300.

So it's weird you keep claiming a P85D is only worth this much, yet Tesla keeps actually listing regular RWD non-P ones for that price range.



They also now have two pre-AP-any-version ones significantly cheaper (36.5k and 39.1k) but that make sense, I probably wouldn't buy a Tesla without AP hardware at any price.

They now also have ONE P85 listed, but it's a 2013, so also no AP at all, and they're still asking 44k for it.

This suggests that S85 vs P is a price gap in the 5-8k range... meaning a P version of the S85 they have listed should already be in the 57-60k range based on the ~52k they seem to ask for a '15 S85...and that's still without adding the AWD yours also has.


Possibly yours has been in accidents, or has a crazy ton of miles or something, impacting its value, I dunno, since you never answered those questions either.

Are you having difficulty doing the math?

Not as much as you are with facts.

 

[glide]

You claim the depreciation on your car is vastly higher (2-3 times higher) than what factually exists across thousands of used Model S sales in multiple studies on the topic from 2016, 2018, and 2019 all state is what I mean.

I even posted several links to the relevant facts and data. While you've, once again, disagreed with all of it without providing a shred of contrary evidence or sourcing.





And yet when I actually checked the one reference you did post (used cars on tesla.com) they had no P85Ds for sale at any price at the time (this is posted back on page 1 I think?) and they had only ONE non-P and non-AWD and AP1 regular S85 listed... for $51,800.


I did just check again- that 51.8k one is gone... now they have a regular, non-AWD, AP1 S85 for.... $52,300.

So it's weird you keep claiming a P85D is only worth this much, yet Tesla keeps actually listing regular RWD non-P ones for that price range.



They also now have two pre-AP-any-version ones significantly cheaper (36.5k and 39.1k) but that make sense, I probably wouldn't buy a Tesla without AP hardware at any price.

They now also have ONE P85 listed, but it's a 2013, so also no AP at all, and they're still asking 44k for it.

This suggests that S85 vs P is a price gap in the 5-8k range... meaning a P version of the S85 they have listed should already be in the 57-60k range based on the ~52k they seem to ask for a '15 S85...and that's still without adding the AWD yours also has.


Possibly yours has been in accidents, or has a crazy ton of miles or something, impacting its value, I dunno, since you never answered those questions either.




Not as much as you are with facts.

You are out of touch with reality. Aaaaaaand you’re blocked.

 

[OCR1]

Well, it was fun watching the movie but I’m not sure what I learned from any of it.

 

[Knightshade]

You are out of touch with reality. Aaaaaaand you’re blocked.

That's some very solid ostriching you're doing there

Well, it was fun watching the movie but I’m not sure what I learned from any of it.

Hopefully you learned that actual facts show the Model S in general has depreciated less over the years than, not just other EVs, but even other ICE vehicles in its class...

The X has too BTW, here's yet another study confirming what Glide keeps pretending aren't facts-

Study: Tesla Model X and Model S continue to hold values better than rivals

So it's at least somewhat likely the Model 3 will do the same.