Model 3 Resale Speculation

[413jreese]

How do you feel resale value will be 3+ years down the line?

I personally feel that they will depreciate faster than expected (even though I am hoping this is not the case). While it seems the few used ones on the market are holding their value relatively well, I feel the scale with which these cars are produced will cause them to share a depreciation curve with their ICE brethren, specifically other luxury mid-size sedans, such as the 3 Series/C-class.

Thoughts?

 

[Knightshade]

The S has spent years outselling every other large luxury car on the market, and still beats them for resale value

 

[OCR1]

Has anyone noticed that the used Model 3’s on Tesla’s website make no reference to whether they include AP or FSD? If they don’t their ask prices are downright silly. If they do, why wouldn’t they show it under options?

It’s an interesting business model that Tesla can buy back a used Model 3 from an owner that did not purchase FSD and they can add FSD to the vehicle on resale and try to get thousands of dollars more for it with no incremental cost to them for doing so.

 

[kdphan]

Has anyone noticed that the used Model 3’s on Tesla’s website make no reference to whether they include AP or FSD? If they don’t their ask prices are downright silly. If they do, why wouldn’t they show it under options?

It’s an interesting business model that Tesla can buy back a used Model 3 from an owner that did not purchase FSD and they can add FSD to the vehicle on resale and try to get thousands of dollars more for it with no incremental cost to them for doing so.

If you click on the purchase link it'll show AP.

I remember some having FSD.

 

[supercharger45]

a used Model 3 from an owner that did not purchase FSD and they can add FSD to the vehicle on resale and try to get thousands of dollars more for it with no incremental cost to them for doing so

Shouldn't that be similar to the new Model 3 sale where it is optional? There would be more buyers if FSD is made optional.

 

[OCR1]

If you click on the purchase link it'll show AP.

I remember some having FSD.

Yup, you’re right. You would think they would reference AP or FSD under “featured options” but Tesla doesn’t always do things logically.

So when you evaluate the prices of these used vehicles you have to factor in how they compare to a new one that includes FSD (or at least AP), then subtract the tax credits only available to new ones, and try to figure out if they are really a good deal. At first glance they don’t seem to be priced competitively.

 

[vickh]

or can it be true that Tesla hold their value like say Toyotas for the 1st couple /yrs?

 

[Leafdriver333]

Battery degradation pattern and capacity will be the most important factor for used EV prices.
If 3 year old SR has better range than a new Leaf, would you buy the new Leaf at $35000 or used SR at $25000?

 

[glide]

Resale will not be great. For the poster who referenced the model S...

My P85D has depreciated 60%+ in just over 4 years.

 

[vickh]

Battery degradation pattern and capacity will be the most important factor for used EV prices.
If 3 year old SR has better range than a new Leaf, would you buy the new Leaf at $35000 or used SR at $25000?

Different buyers though. A better q is 3 year old SR vs new SR?

My 35K black SR will already cost $2k more new due to paint upgrade fee+ Tax credit phaseout this year. Q is what will Tesla do with the 35K price point in 2020, esp w/ Model Y release. Also I'm hoping for good FSD/AP pricing or let the next owner uncork range etc.

 

[MXWing]

Model 3 SR+ don't have much room to lose.

I'm paying a few more K for a used Model 3 than a brand new Sentra, Corolla, etc.

 

[raptor5244]

Battery degradation pattern and capacity will be the most important factor for used EV prices.
If 3 year old SR has better range than a new Leaf, would you buy the new Leaf at $35000 or used SR at $25000?

Don’t forget Tesla builds attractive, fun to drive EVs with autonomous driving features that are constantly getting improved via software updates. They are also at least 3-5 years ahead of the competition in battery and electric motor technology.

The Nissan Leaf, Bolt, etc. just don’t do anything for me. I would keep buying ICE cars if that was all the market had to offer.

 

[Knightshade]

Resale will not be great. For the poster who referenced the model S...

My P85D has depreciated 60%+ in just over 4 years.

That's tremendously high compared to average on your S. Was it in an accident or has like 300k miles on it or something?

Study: Tesla Model S Holds Value Over 2X Better Than Average Gas Car

Looking at luxury sedans, the Mercedes-Benz E-Class, BMW 5 Series, and Audi A6 have depreciation rates that exceed 50%. In comparison, the Tesla Model S has an impressive rate of just 17.1%.

Nor is that the only study to show S has very low depreciation compared to other cars-this one is from late last year-

Study: Tesla Model X and Model S continue to hold values better than rivals

the value of a Model S with 50,000 miles on it had declined on average 27 percent from its original list price. A comparable Mercedes S Class -- the next closest competitor in the large luxury sedan segment -- had lost an average of 33 percent of its original list price after accumulating 50,000 miles.

The competitor with the greatest depreciation was Jaguar’s XJ, which lost an average of 45 percent of its listing value after 50,000 miles.

Also included in the Model S’ segment are the BMW 7 Series, Audi A8, Porsche Panamera and Lexus LS. Autolist’s data showed that at no point in the depreciation curve of any of these vehicles did a gas-powered rival have a stronger resale value than the Tesla Model S.

And it mentions the same facts were true back in 2016 when they checked then too- so depreciation checks in 2016, 2018, and 2019 all show vastly lower %s than you claim for your car.

Not only is the Model S’ depreciation value better than all of its luxury sedan peers, but it’s also holding its value even as more examples of used Model S sedans hit the market. In August 2016, a Model S with 50,000 miles lost an average of 28 percent of its original list price

 

[jjrandorin]

That's tremendously high compared to average on your S. Was it in an accident or has like 300k miles on it or something?

Study: Tesla Model S Holds Value Over 2X Better Than Average Gas Car




Nor is that the only study to show S has very low depreciation compared to other cars-this one is from late last year-

Study: Tesla Model X and Model S continue to hold values better than rivals



And it mentions the same facts were true back in 2016 when they checked then too- so depreciation checks in 2016, 2018, and 2019 all show vastly lower %s than you claim for your car.

Have there been price cuts for model s? I dont follow that, or read the model s board. If the price of a new one has gone down, then that has affected the price of used ones to. if a new one used to be 100k for a set of features, and now its 90k for the same set of features, that 10k the person paid at that price is part of their depreciation (at least it is to me).

For almost all cars, the price of a new one effects the price of a used one, because used car pricing is always compared to "what would a new one of the same kind cost me?"... at least until you start hitting near the bottom in age / miles.

 

[glide]

That's tremendously high compared to average on your S. Was it in an accident or has like 300k miles on it or something?

Study: Tesla Model S Holds Value Over 2X Better Than Average Gas Car




Nor is that the only study to show S has very low depreciation compared to other cars-this one is from late last year-

Study: Tesla Model X and Model S continue to hold values better than rivals



And it mentions the same facts were true back in 2016 when they checked then too- so depreciation checks in 2016, 2018, and 2019 all show vastly lower %s than you claim for your car.

My car had a sticker of $130K new. Tesla regularly sells them for $50-55K now.

You can disagree all you want but facts are facts. Model 3 depreciation won’t be as bad but it will be worse than comparably priced vehicles due to the reliance on technology which, no matter what Elon claims, will be outdated in 4 years.

 

[vickh]

Model 3 SR+ don't have much room to lose.

I'm paying a few more K for a used Model 3 than a brand new Sentra, Corolla, etc.

Agreed. Thats why I went with a SR.

Most of the popular press doesn't even mention SR and starts the price @ 39.5K for SR+ for comparisons. Time will tell in 2 yrs for me when I trade in for Y SR+

 

[Knightshade]

My car had a sticker of $130K new. Tesla regularly sells them for $50-55K now.

there are 0 P85Ds on tesla.com used listings right now FWIW.

There is ONE non-P and non-AWD and AP1 regular S85 listed... for $51,800.

M
You can disagree all you want but facts are facts.

Yes- and I provided sourced facts supporting my claims.

From 2016, 2018, and 2019- all showing vastly lower depreciation rates than your own unsourced claim regarding Model S resale values.

Certainly there might be specific circumstances for a given car that differ from the average- but those studies all looked at average resale across large #s of Model S cars and thus are more generally reflective of Tesla resale than "I once saw a similar car to my specific one listed for cheap!" anecdotes.

 

[cucubits]

My car had a sticker of $130K new. Tesla regularly sells them for $50-55K now.

You can disagree all you want but facts are facts. Model 3 depreciation won’t be as bad but it will be worse than comparably priced vehicles due to the reliance on technology which, no matter what Elon claims, will be outdated in 4 years.

I also think this is true. In a few years a huge factor in used vs new 3 will be AP hardware. Just like it's for the S now, sure AP1 works fine but it's getting really outdated and not a lot of room for upgrade for it. For the Model 3, it will be AP HW3 vs 4/5/6, who knows what they end up with in 3-4 years. New hardware and new features will drive the older models prices down, not just regular depreciation.

 

[MXWing]

Agreed. Thats why I went with a SR.

Most of the popular press doesn't even mention SR and starts the price @ 39.5K for SR+ for comparisons. Time will tell in 2 yrs for me when I trade in for Y SR+

I got a SR for 39K out the door all in before incentives.

With incentives, I believe I will be able to sell in 2 years recovering 30K which puts ownership cost at 350 per month.

We will see if my estimations are successful!

 

[Knightshade]

I also think this is true. In a few years a huge factor in used vs new 3 will be AP hardware. Just like it's for the S now, sure AP1 works fine but it's getting really outdated and not a lot of room for upgrade for it. For the Model 3, it will be AP HW3 vs 4/5/6, who knows what they end up with in 3-4 years. New hardware and new features will drive the older models prices down, not just regular depreciation.

But the FSD computer is easily swappable. By design. For that exact reason.

The only thing that would matter is if they make significant, non-swappable, changes to the sensor package.... (like they finally cave and add LIDAR or something)