Model 3 Supercharging Capable Discussion

[Red Sage]

I would be even a tad more gracious ----say a vacationer just barley makes it back to town and needs to top off for that last 25 miles. Give him a monthly quota - say twice per month. Then, don't prohibit, but send him a bill for excessive use.

No billing at all. Unless or until the term 'excessive' is clearly, specifically, or even actually defined, this would be a very bad idea. Someone might drive to a 'local' Supercharger just to show a Friend of Family member how EASY it is... No swiping or tapping of cards... No sticky messy keypads... Just point at the tail light, press the button, port opens, plug in... White... Blue... GREEN and charging! Then unplug and go to dinner. Being billed for such a sales demonstration would be ridiculous.

 

[Red Sage]

Since I haven't seen anyone bring it up, why not find a happy middle ground between...

Several individuals have suggested similar... 'solutions'... since around September 2012. How's this for an even happier notion...? Buy a car. Use Superchargers as often as you like. Wherever they are. Whenever you need them. But please, pretty please, with sugar on top...? Don't be a [BUM] about it. Thanks.

Does the CHAdeMO adapter require SC activation on the S or X?

Originally, yes. The CHAdeMO adapter is currently hundreds of dollars less expensive than when it was first introduced. You no longer have to have Supercharger access to use it, but there is a greatly reduced fee for DC Charging only. That will allow Model S 60 owners who did NOT opt-in to Supercharging to at least use their CHAdeMO adapter (and presumably any other that comes on market for fast DC Charging).

 

[ttupper92618]

Hmmm... Nonexistent times more vehicles equals... Nonexistent. Rarity multiplied by higher installed user base equals... Hmmm... Still rare. Therefore, not a problem. OK.

Each of your solutions requires constant monitoring and frequent administration. Those can be costly. They are never 'free'. Better to do as Tesla Motors has done -- monitor trends and overall costs, review them periodically.

Sorry, this sounds nice, but really it is nonsense. There is a simple capacity / utilization equation underlying this, and one that you solidly misrepresent.

First, your assertion that the problem is 'non-existent' or 'rare' is already of dubious quality. Based on the reports I have been reading, supercharger over-utilization happens much more than you describe. And the fact that Tesla has resorted to using valets at some superchargers would certainly argue more in the direction of there being a real issue, as opposed to an imaginary one.

Second, your logic that a 'rare' utilization issue with an installed base of ~60K cars = a 'rare' utilization issue with an installed base of > 500K cars is irrational, and not based on any mathematical process that I am acquainted with. If I have two spaces in my garage, and I have two cars trying to park there... then I have a rare issue. But if I suddenly get 10x the number of cars, and I scale my garage only 2 times... then I have an immediate capacity problem and the math is not "rate of problem before x number of new cars."

This is not complex. Superchargers represent a finite resource, with a defined capacity. There are also reasonable limitations to scale that will ultimately result in the need to change the supercharger policy. This is not a question of if, merely one of when.

 

[rhambus]

Why is billing by the minute not the obvious solution to this problem? I am reading on this and other forums about people who obviously had the $60k plus (way plus) for a Model S waiting in line for maybe an hour at a supercharger to seriously save 6-8 bucks. Coming from ICE, I am HAPPY to pay $6 for close to 200 miles of range and know that if someone's hogging the Supercharger, at least they are paying for it. Frankly, a punitive charge for going too much over 30 min makes sense too. People should not be buying these cars if they have to use a Supercharger. Those are for road trips.

 

[Red Sage]

Oh, wow, this is a great point. I had no idea; I live deep in coal country, so we're at rock-bottom prices,

HHHmmm....this is a wrinkle. If the cost of owning electric in California is so high, of course people will consider Superchargers....

Consider? Certainly. But most people here live in single Family homes. Those who live in apartment complexes or condominiums without home charging, would likely use either public charging (school, library, grocery store, movie theatre) or Superchargers.

The tipping point here seems to be in comparison to vehicles that get at least 40 MPG on gasoline. Whenever there is 'cheap gas' there are those who proclaim they are paying more for electricity than they would on gasoline to drive the same distance. Personally, I doubt that is the case, but, like, whatever, and stuff.

By my calculations, you'd basically have to be paying around 50 cents per kWh while gasoline was at $1.62 per gallon or less as compared to a car that gets 50 MPG -- just for the cost to be the SAME. And the worse the fuel economy of a gas guzzler, the lower price of gasoline has to be to match driving electric, let alone have an advantage on cost. Now, show me that 50 MPG vehicle that does 0-60 MPH in 2.8 seconds and has a top speed of 155 MPH again, will you, please...?

If you charge your car at home off-peak, overnight, the cost is typically lower than it would be during midday. But for those who do not have a Time of Use plan or an EV-Specific meter, they might get the exorbitant rates all day long, especially during warm weather. Here in the Great State of California only 36 thousand MWh of electrical generation is coal fired. There is 9,376 thousand MWh of Natural Gas generation of electricity, 3,412 thousand MWh of 'Other Renewables', 1,584 thousand MWh of Nuclear, and 836 thousand MWh of Hydroelectric. I'm not sure anyone has known exactly why it is that we still need further electricity from The GRID from out-of-State sources or why it all is so expensive compared to other places. But that has been a constant query since the ENRON scandal broke in 2001. Strange that no one has any answers.

 

[Drivin]

Based on the reports I have been reading, supercharger over-utilization happens much more than you describe. .

Ok, I'll bite.

Based on the reports you have read:
- How often does supercharger overutilization happen?
- How is overutilization defined? Is it average wait time? Number of free stalls?
- How often does this happen vs. all usage (is it 30%? 3? 0.3%) ?

 

[stopcrazypp]

By my calculations, you'd basically have to be paying around 50 cents per kWh while gasoline was at $1.62 per gallon or less as compared to a car that gets 50 MPG -- just for the cost to be the SAME. And the worse the fuel economy of a gas guzzler, the lower price of gasoline has to be to match driving electric, let alone have an advantage on cost. Now, show me that 50 MPG vehicle that does 0-60 MPH in 2.8 seconds and has a top speed of 155 MPH again, will you, please...?

I think you have to check your math. The most efficient Model S 70D gets 33kWh/100 miles; the most efficiency EV in the US (i3) gets 27kWh/100 miles. At 50 cents per kWh compared to a 50MPG car, even the i3 would be the equivalent of $6.75 per gallon gasoline:
(27kwh/100 miles) * ($0.50/kWh) * (50 miles / gallon) = $6.75 / gallon.

 

[Kristian G]

This is an idea i heard elsewhere, and that is what i think would work.
How about the car gets programmed for use with SC.

You park it there, start the charge - when it's charged to the set charge it will automatically disconnect and park itself on a specified "done charging" parking spot.

Then you would not have people just parking there for longer periods of time.

In Denmark where i live, electricity is way more expensive, so my guess is people use SC more.
In areas where electricity is expensive SC is really a big difference, so making it pay per use would not make sense, as it would be very expensive when you add tax and other fees.

 

[Red Sage]

This is not complex. Superchargers represent a finite resource, with a defined capacity. There are also reasonable limitations to scale that will ultimately result in the need to change the supercharger policy. This is not a question of if, merely one of when.

Yadda, yadda, yadda... The sky is falling... Oh, woe is me, etc, etc...

There is never a point where every single Supercharger stall at every single Supercharger location throughout all of the United States of America is clogged by so-called 'locals'. That is a nonexistent problem.

There is a rare instance of some Superchargers in one State, of one Country, in the entire WORLD being overwhelmed during PEAK use over long holiday weekends... And, there was formerly the RARE instance of some inconsiderate [ICEHOLES] using Supercharger spaces as their personal parking spot... The first of those rarities has been largely eliminated by expanding those previously crowded locations -- or -- by installations of NEW Supercharger locations as alternates nearby. The second of those rare circumstances was alleviated by having a Tesla Valet on hand to kindly enforce some level of decorum that approaches common decency. Both solutions have worked fabulously -- without a pay-per-use system, without a subscription service, without having credit cards on file, without penalty of billing, and without having people towed away.

So... What the problem is?

 

[Red Sage]

Why is billing by the minute not the obvious solution to this problem?

Two reasons:

1. That which is obvious is not always so.
2. There is no 'problem' to begin with.

Sorted.

 

[Red Sage]

I think you have to check your math.

Mathematics shmathematics... Show me the 50 MPG gas guzzler that does 0-60 MPH in 2.7 seconds and has a top speed of 155 MPH!

 

[ttupper92618]

Consider? Certainly. But most people here live in single Family homes. Those who live in apartment complexes or condominiums without home charging, would likely use either public charging (school, library, grocery store, movie theatre) or Superchargers.

The tipping point here seems to be in comparison to vehicles that get at least 40 MPG on gasoline. Whenever there is 'cheap gas' there are those who proclaim they are paying more for electricity than they would on gasoline to drive the same distance. Personally, I doubt that is the case, but, like, whatever, and stuff.

By my calculations, you'd basically have to be paying around 50 cents per kWh while gasoline was at $1.62 per gallon or less as compared to a car that gets 50 MPG -- just for the cost to be the SAME. And the worse the fuel economy of a gas guzzler, the lower price of gasoline has to be to match driving electric, let alone have an advantage on cost. Now, show me that 50 MPG vehicle that does 0-60 MPH in 2.8 seconds and has a top speed of 155 MPH again, will you, please...?
.

Consider? Certainly. But most people here live in single Family homes. Those who live in apartment complexes or condominiums without home charging, would likely use either public charging (school, library, grocery store, movie theatre) or Superchargers.

The tipping point here seems to be in comparison to vehicles that get at least 40 MPG on gasoline. Whenever there is 'cheap gas' there are those who proclaim they are paying more for electricity than they would on gasoline to drive the same distance. Personally, I doubt that is the case, but, like, whatever, and stuff.

By my calculations, you'd basically have to be paying around 50 cents per kWh while gasoline was at $1.62 per gallon or less as compared to a car that gets 50 MPG -- just for the cost to be the SAME. And the worse the fuel economy of a gas guzzler, the lower price of gasoline has to be to match driving electric, let alone have an advantage on cost. Now, show me that 50 MPG vehicle that does 0-60 MPH in 2.8 seconds and has a top speed of 155 MPH again, will you, please...?

If you charge your car at home off-peak, overnight, the cost is typically lower than it would be during midday. But for those who do not have a Time of Use plan or an EV-Specific meter, they might get the exorbitant rates all day long, especially during warm weather. Here in the Great State of California only 36 thousand MWh of electrical generation is coal fired. There is 9,376 thousand MWh of Natural Gas generation of electricity, 3,412 thousand MWh of 'Other Renewables', 1,584 thousand MWh of Nuclear, and 836 thousand MWh of Hydroelectric. I'm not sure anyone has known exactly why it is that we still need further electricity from The GRID from out-of-State sources or why it all is so expensive compared to other places. But that has been a constant query since the ENRON scandal broke in 2001. Strange that no one has any answers.

Your math is just crazy wrong here. I'm glad you mentioned the time of use plans offered by SCE. However, you neglected to mention that many consumers don't have a time of use plan because access to it is capped and they aren't allowed to have it. So, those consumers are indeed stuck using the standard plan, which consists of the following tiers:

- Tier 1: $0.15 / KWh
- Tier 2: $0.21 / KWh
- Tier 3: $0.24 / KWh
- Tier 4: $0.30 / KWh

For those who don't understand how the tiered pricing works, you start at tier 1 every month, and as your usage extends beyond a specific baseline, you move up in tiers. The baselines are generally low, and it is pretty hard to stay at the lowest tier. For example, I live in a townhouse and I routinely wind up in tier 4. It is a given that anyone charging an electric car will push into tier 4 easily, probably in the first week of a given month.

Second, you mention break even points with gasoline cars and place it at 40 mpg, etc. That's wrong. It's purely a mater of range per KWh, and cost thereof. It's very, very easy to run these numbers, and Tesla makes it really easy because they include a cost calculator on their site right here: Tesla Charging | Tesla Motors

But going with your example, let's run a simple example. I have a CRV that I drive around sometimes, and it gets an average efficiency of 27 MPG. So, with 10 gallons of gas, I can get 270 miles. Yesterday, regular unleaded was $2.69 at my local Costco, so let's use that number. That would yield a cost of $26.90 for my tank of gas to go 270 miles.

Now let's look at the Tesla charge cost calculator. It tells me to charge for 270 miles using a NEMA 14-50 outlet, I will use 89.1 KWh of electricity, and at $0.30 that would cost me $26.73. So, almost exactly the same as the gasoline. If I were driving something like a Prius or some other hybrid, with gasoline at these prices, the Tesla would cost a lot MORE per mile that the ICE / Hybrid.

Listen, I'm not arguing that Teslas are bad - I love them. But I think it is very wrong to be disingenuous about the costs involved, or to misrepresent what model 3 owners will face, especially when it comes to bear on forecasting how supercharger utilization will be impacted. It is IMO hopelessly naive to think that increasing the number of supercharge capable cars by 10x, net any supercharger access policy changes... will not create issues. Trying to make that case on top of cruddy math is just that much worse.

 

[Az_Rael]

Whenever there is 'cheap gas' there are those who proclaim they are paying more for electricity than they would on gasoline to drive the same distance. Personally, I doubt that is the case, but, like, whatever, and stuff.

Being that you live in California, I am surprised you can't imagine a scenario where this would happen. Here is my real life scenario about a year ago when I first bought my Volt. I was easily getting into Tier 4 before I bought the Volt. So, at the end of the month, I was charging the Volt at .34/ kWH to get about 38 miles of range (~12kWH battery fill). So, that was costing me $4.08 to go 38 miles. The Volt gets ~38mpg on the gas engine, and at the time gas was probably $3.50/gallon. So, I was paying more to drive the Volt on electricity than I was on gas.

The Volt makes these scenarios pretty easy to see, since a full charge is approximately equal to 1 gallon of gas. The numbers might be harder to figure out for a BEV, but it can still happen.

You can argue that there are TOU rates, or that people spend $25k and put panels on their roofs, but sometimes those situations don't work if you have family at home during the day and don't want to spend the money on the panels. So those people might make the choice to supercharge on their daily commute vs charging at home.

 

[Red Sage]

@ttupper92618 -- Honda CR-V... 0-60 MPH in 7.5 seconds... Top speed of 117 MPH. Next?

 

[ttupper92618]

@ttupper92618 -- Honda CR-V... 0-60 MPH in 7.5 seconds... Top speed of 117 MPH. Next?

What does that have to do with supercharger station utilization and capacity?

Stop acting like this is a debate about the merit of Tesla automobiles - that's not pertinent here. We all think there is value there or we wouldn't be Tesla customers.

This thread is about Model 3 supercharging, and this particular subthread is about how that might impact utilization conditions at superchargers. All the cheerleeding about how great our cars are / will be is silly, and not the least bit pertinent.

 

[ohmman]

@ttupper92618 -- Honda CR-V... 0-60 MPH in 7.5 seconds... Top speed of 117 MPH. Next?

What does that have to do with supercharger station utilization and capacity?

I think @Red Sage has fallen into the trap of moving the goalposts here. Easy to fall into, but backing up the argument is a more logical way to proceed.

 

[ikjadoon]

Your math is just crazy wrong here. I'm glad you mentioned the time of use plans offered by SCE. However, you neglected to mention that many consumers don't have a time of use plan because access to it is capped and they aren't allowed to have it.

I thought, though, that electricity should be quite cheap at night, wherever you are. In some places, it's half the price of day-time.

If it's capped...is that a trend across the USA? I thought they had tons of extra capacity at night, that they priced quite cheaply.

EDIT:

Let's take a deeper dive here. I'm curious.The average residential rate is $0.12/kWh. The average American drives 1100 miles a month. If you charge a standard Model S 70D at home (~240 miles)...you'd need to fully charge it ~5 times per month. That's an extra 350 kWh per month and at average residential prices, that's $42 per month.

If you have night-time pricing, it's less. If you drive aggressively or live in a hilly area, it's more.

Now, ttupper: California prices are high. But, still, on average Americans aren't paying those rates. But, only a few people need to be upset about being tossed into Tier 4, where they'll be paying $105 a month to charge, that they'll use the Supercharger every once in a while locally.

@RedSage: yes, it's only considering it. But, if home charging really is at $0.30/kWh for some people, they will actually do it, I think. It will take some time psychologically to shift the cost of "filling up the car" from the gas pump to the monthly electric bill.

 

[Steepler2k]

I thought, though, that electricity should be quite cheap at night, wherever you are. In some places, it's half the price of day-time.

If it's capped...is that a trend across the USA? I thought they had tons of extra capacity at night, that they priced quite cheaply.

Depends on the state. Not all states offer plans with a variable rate based on the time of day. Mine (Alabama) does not, but then, our power is pretty cheap around the clock (my last bill was ~$0.133/kWh).

 

[ikjadoon]

Depends on the state. Not all states offer plans with a variable rate based on the time of day. Mine (Alabama) does not, but then, our power is pretty cheap around the clock (my last bill was ~$0.133/kWh).

Hmm! That's interesting. I thought they all did. My fault for assuming.

Curious. I wonder if that's because there isn't a demand for it (not enough consumers would take advantage of the special time-of-use meter boxes or even use electricity at night) or even if there was a demand, it's not something they're interested in.

 

[Red Sage]

I think @Red Sage has fallen into the trap of moving the goalposts here. Easy to fall into, but backing up the argument is a more logical way to proceed.

In addition to the disclaimer about being wrong in my Signature here, some may not be aware of another, regarding all my posts on the internet being 'Closed Captioned for the Humour Impaired'. I sometimes use hyperbole, along with healthy doses of sarcasm in my writing. The fun thing about having an uncommon sense of humor is that, especially on the internet, the tone of commentary may be misunderstood. Such are the limitations of using a keyboard to communicate on the internet.