Tesla plans on making 500k cars in 2018 and 2019. Historically 50% of sales are in the US. Right now there are about 60k cars in the US from all the previous years. I estimate that by 2020 there will be around 750k to a million Tesla's in the US if they stick to their timeline.
So when you go to a super charger in Illinois and see 1 or 2 cars there at any given time. Imagine 10 times more. Now you have 10-20 cars there at any given time. Add to that people's irrational behavior... They will fully charge rather than wait again at the next charger, Since most spots will be taken charging will be slower. This will be a huge PR nightmare for Tesla and EV's in general.
And things only get worse from there as Tesla will be making another 500+k cars per year. Each year will get worse and worse.
No. Because the grand majority of people who buy within the next five years will primarily charge at home or at work. They will no longer be the
'captive audience' that must go to the gas station to fill up once or twice a week. The sheer joy of waking up to a
'full tank' every day will prevent them from using Superchargers on a regular basis. And, at this price point, the majority of buyers will have regular jobs with at most two or three weeks of vacation time per year. There won't be a bunch of retirees that decide to take three month road trips a couple of times a year. The Supercharger network will double by the end of 2017. So, those locations where you might see two cars today, will only have maybe one car -- or even none -- when you arrive by that time.
And, with 500,000 cars arriving on the market each year, something like 40% to 50% will be for US Customers. Superchargers will be distributed accordingly. So, we are speaking of 200,000 to 250,000 cars. If the distribution is half-and-half between Generation II and Generation III cars, that would be 100,000 to 125,000 of each. If you presume that Model S and Model X each contribute $2,000 per vehicle toward the Supercharger network, that is $200,000,000 to $250,000,000. And if you believe that only $500 would activate Supercharger access for a Model ☰ that adds $50,000,000 to $62,500,000 to the pot.
So, US sales would contribute from $250,000,000 to $312,500,000 toward the Supercharger network each year. Let's say that half that would be used for installation, administration, and maintenance expenses, and the rest would be used for energizing them.
If it costs $400,000 per Supercharger to set up an 8-stall location: You can add 312 of them every year using $125,000,000 and 390 of them each year with $156,250,000.
If electricity is 10 cents per kWh, and most people add 40 kWh ($4.00 worth) before moving on to their next stop: You can have 31,250,000 charging sessions with $125,000,000 and 39,062,500 charging sessions using a $156,250,000 pot.
Or, if you presume most drivers have a 90 kWh battery pack that they charge from 20%
(18 kWh) to 90%
(81 kWh) before moving on, adding 63 kWh
($6.30) per stop, and just for the fun of it you impose a 15% penalty for induction losses during charging, that means you actually pay for 74 kWh
($7.41) per fillup, then: You can have
'only' 16,869,095 to 21,086,369 charging sessions using the funds raised through annual car sales.
At some point the range for Tesla Motors' electric vehicles will improve so much that for many people public charging will rarely be needed at all. Imagine only needing to stop six to eight times on a 3,000 mile trip. Most of those stops would be to fulfill biological needs for food, rest, or lavatory visits. Charging the car would be less than a secondary concern. By the time that happens, the saturation of Supercharger locations will be far ahead of the need to expand. Much as is the case with gas stations today for ICE.
