Model 3 Supercharging Capable Discussion

[Red Sage]

I am not sure if anyone mentioned but Elon said they can get the unlimited package, but to me that implies other packages. Tesla can't charge for electricity, they are not a utility and don't want to be but they can sell an autopilot unlock for a week, or for a month etc. So imagine $2k unlimited forever, $200 for a month, $100 for a week etc. This would drive revenue and limit the amount of users.

I expect there will be Supercharger access enabled on all cars... But that the 'FREE for LIFE!' option will be a specific optional purchase on the base version of Model ☰. Meaning, you might be limited to charge a certain number of times per month, or per year. You might be limited to 'FREE' access for only one year, or two, or four... The limitation may be 'FREE' only to the original purchaser, with a fee applied to a new owner if the car were sold... I would be very much saddened by the option to buy access on a weekly, monthly, or yearly basis.

Some people may believe they don't need 'FREE for LIFE!' access to the Supercharger network -- until after they get the car and realize they WANT to drive it a lot more than they expected. This is why I believe Supercharger access should be included from the outset, even if limited in mileage or time frame, so that people can try it out. If they determine they were right, fine, they have saved some money. If they change their mind, cool, Tesla Motors gets to make more cash on the back end when they retrofit permanent Supercharger access. Also, this way you avoid someone being stranded somewhere because they couldn't use the Supercharger at all when out and about.

 

[Booga]

I expect there will be Supercharger access enabled on all cars... But that the 'FREE for LIFE!' option will be a specific optional purchase on the base version of Model ☰. Meaning, you might be limited to charge a certain number of times per month, or per year. You might be limited to 'FREE' access for only one year, or two, or four... The limitation may be 'FREE' only to the original purchaser, with a fee applied to a new owner if the car were sold... I would be very much saddened by the option to buy access on a weekly, monthly, or yearly basis.

Some people may believe they don't need 'FREE for LIFE!' access to the Supercharger network -- until after they get the car and realize they WANT to drive it a lot more than they expected. This is why I believe Supercharger access should be included from the outset, even if limited in mileage or time frame, so that people can try it out. If they determine they were right, fine, they have saved some money. If they change their mind, cool, Tesla Motors gets to make more cash on the back end when they retrofit permanent Supercharger access. Also, this way you avoid someone being stranded somewhere because they couldn't use the Supercharger at all when out and about.

They might even give a trial period early on. I believe they offered Model S owners the opportunity to try Autopilot for a while, for example. They can easily do it with this, because every Model 3 will have the hardware, and so they just need to enable it via software.

 

[Red Sage]

**shrug** that's the owners' problem.

they're already abusing SC use in some places.

Maybe Tesla needs to add that language into the battery warranty, and keep that usage data per vehicle stored somewhere.

If you use it in a way it's not intended to be used, you should bear the cost of fixing or replacing the battery.

the intention of supercharging "gas stations" is more about coverage than anything.

I almost gave you a 'Like' for this post... Elon and JB have been asked if there is a problem with Supercharging exclusively. They told people not to worry about it. Then, about a year-and-a-half later, they introduced the retroactive 8-year Unlimited Mileage warranty for the 85 kWh battery pack.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

I almost gave you a 'Like' for this post... Elon and JB have been asked if there is a problem with Supercharging exclusively. They told people not to worry about it. Then, about a year-and-a-half later, they introduced the retroactive 8-year Unlimited Mileage warranty for the 85 kWh battery pack.

Just goes to show you that Tesla isn't your everyday car company.

If GM is collecting charging stats on Bolt batteries, and you're not using it as they intended......

Something tells me they have "out clauses" in their battery warranties.

 

[Red Sage]

If they do have a pay-per-use plan it will be more expensive than people think/want since it needs to cover infrastructure build/maintenance as well as electrical usage.

Let's say that an average Model 3 owner takes 2 trips per year, and hits 10 Superchargers on each trip and never uses a Supercharger for anything else. (5 out and 5 back) Assuming the car falls apart at the end of the 8-year powertrain warranty, at $2,000 it cost them $12.50 for each Supercharge. (In all likelihood most people will use them more often than that.) If you assume an average of 150 miles/charge it costs $0.083/mile.

Now he said it would cost less than an ICE, so if we look at the Audi A4, which gets 28 MPG combined, and figure gas will cost $3/gallon it would cost $0.107/mile. (not counting oil changes, etc.)

Put that all together and my guess is that it will cost $19.99 per Supercharge. The problem with that is I think it would make things worse. Since they are paying $19.99/charge they are likely to charge to 100% every time to get the most value. (Well not if you count the cost of their time.) So you may see pay-per-use people staying way longer than necessary.

Alternatively they could charge ~$0.66/min, which gets rid of the problem of staying longer to get your value, and would encourage people to come in with an empty battery where they can get more power for the same cost. Of course I think they would need to round it up, to $0.75 or even $1/min. (Really they want the $2,000 up front so they can build out the network, so they have to make it very attractive.)

The problem with the per minute charge is that it makes it less attractive to prospective land owners and may make siting new Superchargers harder. (Since people would probably just stay in their car so that they could leave again ASAP to not pay too much. People aren't going to eat a leisurely meal, or go shopping, at $40-60/hour.)

Note: We know from history that most people opt for the bigger battery, and that the bigger battery is likely to come with Supercharging as part of the package. So most Model 3s will have "free" Supercharging anyhow.

Wow. That would be REALLY expensive... A single gallon of gasoline holds around 33.7 kWh in energy. Let's presume that whenever someone stops at a Supercharger they are adding 50% to the car and that is roughly 33.7 kWh or so. So, you would be charging $20 per 'gallon' equivalent to drive 100 miles per gallon, instead of paying $3.00 per gallon to drive 28 miles per gallon. OUCH. It would cost a lot less to just buy four gallons of gasoline.

 

[Red Sage]

That's a huge capital outlay, major overhead, various levels of permitting/licensing, etc.....

It's a great 5-10 year vision, but I think partnering with someone with existing real estate and supply networks is the way to go to stand this up in the next 18-36 months, when the Model 3's will begin to pop up everywhere.

Perhaps. But I would do it by the end of next year, as secretly as possible... To allow for at least 24, and up to 36 such facilities across the US. I figure it would cost a lot, but still far less than the upper limit $5,000,000 I've heard for the cost of a Hydrogen Fueling Station. Certain States would not allow them, but I'd build them anyway, expecting to win a case at the Federal level that would validate their operation. And Tesla Motor is already partnering with existing sites, for their regular Superchargers. I believe they need to have an independent, standalone presence as well. Signage over brick and mortar is key to bring on feelings of legitimacy among the public at large.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

Perhaps. But I would do it by the end of next year, as secretly as possible... To allow for at least 24, and up to 36 such facilities across the US. I figure it would cost a lot, but still far less than the upper limit $5,000,000 I've heard for the cost of a Hydrogen Fueling Station. Certain States would not allow them, but I'd build them anyway, expecting to win a case at the Federal level that would validate their operation. And Tesla Motor is already partnering with existing sites, for their regular Superchargers. I believe they need to have an independent, standalone presence as well.

Now you and I both know that such an undertaking wouldn't stay secret for long.

Whoever is running supercharge.info has a pretty good network of people who are looking specifically at permitting.

Tesla could pull it off secretly with a shadow company pulling all the permits, and not revealing branding on the buildings until the last possible minute, but.....


they're a publicly traded company. Shadow companies would get them into trouble with the SEC, and you can bet your butt that the Big 3, and the NADA, and the oil companies would push for a full inquiry.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Insideevs is reporting that Tesla will have 2 Supercharging options for the Model 3: An upfront one time fee for access, or single use fees for those who don't use them much.

Where is the link for that quote?

 

[JeffK]

You know they do plan to sell eight times as many Model 3 cars per year as the Model S or the Model X (or four times both)

Therefore I think a lifetime supercharging fee should be more spread out. $500 is the only number that makes sense.

Right now they say supercharger maintenance/upkeep is a negligible percentage of overall revenue. Making the price $500 for the Model 3 makes it very affordable for consumers and still increases revenue by $200 million per year to expand the network assuming sale of 400k Model 3s per year.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Tesla would rather just have the $2K up front. Once they get production up, that's an extra billion dollars per year to build superchargers.

The $35K base car isn't likely profitable until later years. They need the money.

Exactly. Perfect.

 

[Brunel]

Meh. After I posted, I thought someone might reply like this... And here it is. Surprise!

Lookit, the way I see it, using the Superchargers is NOT abuse. Going to a Supercharger stall and using it as a personal parking space for hours on end is abuse. Going to a Supercharger and not plugging in at all is abuse. Going to a Supercharger and being discourteous to other owners is abuse. Going to a 'local' Supercharger with regularity -- when you have ready access to home charging instead -- is abuse.

Personally, I would not want to have an electric car without having the wondrous benefit of home charging. The notion of waking up to a 'Full Tank' every morning is rather uplifting. But knowing that every Friday after work, I can just pick a direction and GO is truly inspiring. That is what I meant by my prior post. For me, Supercharger access would grant freedom to drive on the open road, not for ordinary everyday commuting about town.

And ultimately, for those who choose to buy electric, but don't have home charging, there is no shame there either. They should be applauded for making a tough, but correct, decision. You bought the car. Use the Superchargers whenever you want, as often as you like, wherever you are. Just please, pretty please, with sugar on top, be nice about it.

At least you acknowledge your original statement was only half-completed and open to the trap I fell in! Agree that where there is a large pre-package fee then not adding up the $ on a week long road-trip of many thousands of miles is refreshing and hoping you do not bump into cars slurping electrons a few miles from their homes just to get their money's worth will be very important to you. In the UK we have many 2 bay SuC sites so one car already present has a massive impact on how long you can continue your road trip.

London will be interesting because the SuCs there are designed for local use...with lots of affordable Model 3s where the owners will definitely take an upfront unlimited charge option there has to be pressure...land and sites for multiple bay locations will get challenging unless you venture to the outskirts, but the growth will have to happen in and around London. Although companies like Vallie will pick up Teslas, charge them, park them securely and return them to owners, so innovative valet services like that will add flexibility and that is why Tesla UK have been informally promoting them.

 

[Red Sage]

Now you and I both know that such an undertaking wouldn't stay secret for long.

Whoever is running supercharge.info has a pretty good network of people who are looking specifically at permitting.

Tesla could pull it off secretly with a shadow company pulling all the permits, and not revealing branding on the buildings until the last possible minute, but.....

they're a publicly traded company. Shadow companies would get them into trouble with the SEC, and you can bet your butt that the Big 3, and the NADA, and the oil companies would push for a full inquiry.

Yeah, I get it! Great points! I just figure that if, somewhere, out there, in the giant, empty wastelands between New York City and Los Angeles, there just happen to be some ranchers who are willing to grant a 99 year lease to lands just off an exit ramp to build a lone facility, it would be worth pursuing. Doing things on county land, instead of incorporated cities, might incur less resistance as well. You don't necessarily want to do so adjacent to, or across the street from a Love's, Travel Centers of America, or SHEETZ either. Heck, it could be a firm headed by Kimball Musk, or one of Elon's Cousins, that acquired the right to the land and began construction. Then Tesla Motors would be a 'tenant' just like the Starbuck's, In-N-Out Burger, Taco Bell, and Carl's Jr... only as the 'anchor' for the site, instead of someone else. I'm sure these guys would love the work...

 

[Jeff N]

Upfront fee is a market based solution. You seem to think that Tesla is a government entity making policy.

Unlimited usage plans are not commonly sold for routinely used variable consumption resources. Can you buy an unlimited flights airplane ticket? Can you buy an unlimited gasoline filling station card? Not really. Companies have figured out that such a plan would be abused and would result in bad behavior and poor resource allocation.

I have an unlimited AT&T wireless data plan "grandfathered in" as one of the early iPhone customers. They offered this plan as a way to quickly ramp up customers to help pay for expanding their cell tower coverage. Unlimited data is great. I never think about downloading apps, watching HD YouTube videos, surfing the web, talking with friends using FaceTime video conferencing. AT&T no longer offers unlimited data plans....

Tesla can't charge for electricity,

In most (but not all) states only utilities can charge a per-kWh price for electricity but Tesla can have a fixed per-session charging price and/or they can have a price per-minute while charging. This is already done at most public J1772 AC stations around the country.

Supercharger construction comes out of a marketing fund that is not tied to any income whatsoever.

Right, it certainly can. There is no requirement that any "per-use" fees have to fully cover the cost of Supercharger construction. Tesla could just start off with a lower per-use fee that is mostly intended to discourage bad charging behavior rather than fully recovering charging costs.

 

[ohmman]

Whoever is running supercharge.info has a pretty good network of people who are looking specifically at permitting.

TMC member @BlueShift runs it. And the network of people are, well, mostly TMC members who post threads, which he parses and puts on the site.

 

[electracity]

Unlimited usage plans are not commonly sold for routinely used variable consumption resources. Can you buy an unlimited flights airplane ticket? Can you buy an unlimited gasoline filling station card? Not really. Companies have figured out that such a plan would be abused and would result in bad behavior and poor resource allocation.

I never claimed Tesla will offer an unlimited plan on the model 3. They will offer free supercharger for travel for life. As I have said, the battery in the car is not designed for regular fast charging.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

TMC member @BlueShift runs it. And the network of people are, well, mostly TMC members who post threads, which he parses and puts on the site.

They're good. At least in the US, we know about Superchargers sometimes prior to permits even being approved.

Point being: "Tesla Stations" COULD happen....but they wouldn't stay a secret.

 

[nwdiver]

Unlimited usage plans are not commonly sold for routinely used variable consumption resources. Can you buy an unlimited flights airplane ticket? Can you buy an unlimited gasoline filling station card? Not really. Companies have figured out that such a plan would be abused and would result in bad behavior and poor resource allocation.

Right, it certainly can. There is no requirement that any "per-use" fees have to fully cover the cost of Supercharger construction. Tesla could just start off with a lower per-use fee that is mostly intended to discourage bad charging behavior rather than fully recovering charging costs.

The key difference there that people tend to gloss over is that all those things are self-serving... you buy airline tickets to fly and gasoline to drive... Superchargers exist for their own sake... they exist to drive vehicle sales.

The O&M is also vastly different and likely has no other analog. Gasoline is obviously 100% 'O&M' while even efficient aircraft like a 747 cost as much to operate as to build after 3 or 4 years. Contrast that to a Supercharger station that cost $250k to build but far far less to operate.... with batteries and on-site generation the operating costs can approach zero.

Discouraging bad behavior with a universal fee is like going after a fly with a hammer... it's excessive and likely to have unintended consequences. There are better ways to deter using superchargers for local use.

 

[Red Sage]

Unlimited usage plans are not commonly sold for routinely used variable consumption resources. Can you buy an unlimited flights airplane ticket? Can you buy an unlimited gasoline filling station card? Not really. Companies have figured out that such a plan would be abused and would result in bad behavior and poor resource allocation.

I believe there are credit cards that are never declined. But those are typically used by cardholders for corporations that have tremendous lines of credit to draw from. Those are definitely not 'free'. A price is paid, and payments are made. True. I think that companies have figured out that the Gillette method of money acquisition is very, very effective. I believe the reverse is true as well. Pay up front, never pay again works just as well as pay nothing now, and little bit at a time from now on. It just depends upon your intended audience.

I have an unlimited AT&T wireless data plan "grandfathered in" as one the early iPhone customers. They offered this plan as a way to quickly ramp up customers to help pay for expanding their cell tower coverage. Unlimited data is great. I never think about downloading apps, watching HD YouTube videos, surfing the web, talking with friends using FaceTime video conferencing. AT&T no longer offers unlimited data plans....

That's fine. This is why I am understanding that Tesla Motors will choose a different path with Generation III vehicles than Generation II ones. Things change over time. Some become more or less convenient, some become quicker/faster, some become more or less expensive.

In most (but not all) states only utilities can charge a per-kWh price for electricity but Tesla can have a fixed per-session charging price and/or they can have a price per-minute while charging. This is already done at most public J1772 AC stations around the country.

My biggest point is that charging a fee, without any intention to at least break even, and hopefully profit, ends up being more of a losing proposition than giving something away 'for free'. The companies that use this method are making no money at all. Some say that is because the distribution of available electric vehicles is not there... yet. I believe the problem is more fundamental than that. The majority of owners will charge at home or at work most of the time. Gas stations work because they have a captive audience, where 99.999% of drivers have no means of refueling at home or at work.

Sure, it can. There is no requirement that any "per-use" fees have to fully cover the cost of Supercharger construction. Tesla could just start off with a lower per-use fee that is mostly intended to discourage bad charging behavior rather than fully recovering charging costs.

Well, yeah... There are those that want Model ☰ owners to 'contribute' at least 'something'... But I can't help but see pay-per-use as a form of punishment for not having the funds to purchase a more expensive car instead. Paying up front, or not paying at all, is another matter. I would prefer a uniform experience among all Tesla owners. I understand that may not be possible. That doesn't mean I have to like it.

 

[ModelNforNerd]

There are better ways to deter using superchargers for local use.

Such as.....?

Everyone says Tesla shouldn't do ___, but no one has been able to posit a solution.

 

[Red Sage]

Such as.....?

Everyone says Tesla shouldn't do ___, but no one has been able to posit a solution.

I don't want to 'deter' use of Superchargers at all. I would prefer to encourage their proper usage. It always strikes me as odd that so many consider 'Justice' as the application of penalties on everyone for the sins of a few.