Model S sales versus other large luxury vehicles

[wdolson]

Even though the Model S's sales are down in the US, its market share is up. At this point in 2016 it had a little over 26% of the market and now it has 31.5%.

Sedans are a shrinking market though. I read Toyota is considering dropping some of its sedans in coming years, the Lexus LS and Avalon among them. I believe Ford is dropping the Taurus in the US after the 2017 model year. Their new sedan platform is only available as the Continental outside of China.

Various types of vehicles with hatches have become more popular. Even companies like Porsche are making them. The Model S holds its own in large part because it and the X are the best EVs in the world (currently available), but also it has a hatch. Tesla will see strong sales for the Model 3 when it's introduced, but I suspect it will suffer when the Model Y hits the market.

 

[ElectricTundra]

It is a pretty brutal picture for the sedan market...

The entire industry is sort of down. I believe about 8% in July & Aug. This segment hit considerably harder though.

Overall fewer people want to own cars* so over long periods sales per capita are low and will likely continue to get lower. The recent up-tick was likely just pent-up demand from the recession and what we're seeing now is the end of that and back to the new normal.

* A continuously growing bit of the population, led by millennials but now encompassing all ages, prefer to live close enough to work and amenities that they can routinely walk or bicycle (in normal clothes, no lycra) to most and use transit (preferably rail) for the few farther away. This is creating a dire picture for many suburbs as wealth is moving out to core cities or more compact suburbs.

 

[futurem3owner]

The sedan market will climb back up once Model 3 is mass produced and reviews start rolling in. As more manufacturers start phasing out their production of ICE cars and purely focus on BEV's, we'll start seeing EV's that will be similar to Tesla's in terms of the looks, range, and acceleration. Until then, those automakers will continue to deliberately have EV's underperform and not dedicate enough resources to them so as to not cannibalize the sales of their ICE cars and that's why millennials who are waiting for more competition in the EV market won't buy them until they have lots of options and able to pick an affordable EV that has the most features.

 

[Reciprocity]

August...

Awesome work as always, I always look forward to these updates. Most are aware, but I thought I would add a little color. Since these are US only numbers, Tesla tends to try to deliver as many cars as far away from Fremont early in the quarter and as close as possible to Fremont at the end of the quarter, this makes the total for the quarter numbers and quarter over quarter numbers more accurate for Tesla in terms of trends. Certainly some things like HK pop up and Tesla will direct even more vehicles to areas where incentives are expiring. I would expect the Sept. numbers to bring Tesla back up to flat or even positive for the year. I also think there is a big shift towards the X as they catch up and I think you will see the real gains for YoY there instead of here.

 

[Reciprocity]

August...

Per my post above, as you can see Model X is up almost 27% vs 2016 and again, Tesla will deliver more cars in the US in the final month of the quarter then then in the first two months since they build and ship the cars that require more travel time first. This causes the US to see big months at the end of the quarter compared to the two previous months and compared to other manufacturers. Model X is taking some market from Model S while it also takes market share in its own segment and grows to near 10% in the large Lux SUV segment.

 

[wdolson]

The entire industry is sort of down. I believe about 8% in July & Aug. This segment hit considerably harder though.

Overall fewer people want to own cars* so over long periods sales per capita are low and will likely continue to get lower. The recent up-tick was likely just pent-up demand from the recession and what we're seeing now is the end of that and back to the new normal.

* A continuously growing bit of the population, led by millennials but now encompassing all ages, prefer to live close enough to work and amenities that they can routinely walk or bicycle (in normal clothes, no lycra) to most and use transit (preferably rail) for the few farther away. This is creating a dire picture for many suburbs as wealth is moving out to core cities or more compact suburbs.

There are few people who can afford a $100K car who choose to take public transit to work unless they are commuting by airline. In the US sales of sedans in all classes is in decline.

@Reciprocity posted a quote from the Model X vs other similar cars thread and that market has grown a little over the last year. Not as much as the luxury sedan market has shrunk, but it remains strong.

Another thing that's happening is people who buy cars (not lease) are keeping cars longer. The average age of the car fleet in the US continues to get older every year. New cars are competing with cars a few years old. In the ICE world, there is not that much that is compelling about the latest cars and you can save a lot of money buying an off lease car right now, especially an off lease sedan. The US market is glutted with them.

 

[ElectricTundra]

There are few people who can afford a $100K car who choose to take public transit to work unless they are commuting by airline. In the US sales of sedans in all classes is in decline.

Generally true, but also depends a lot on the person and the city? I know a number of people in Chicago, DC, LA, and NYC who can afford or own $100k+ cars but still take transit to work. Increasingly across the U.S. people with higher incomes are also choosing to walk or ride bicycles to work and many are buying a home in a location that will allow them to do so. In many cities proximity to a good bikeway adds significantly to a house's value.

@Reciprocity posted a quote from the Model X vs other similar cars thread and that market has grown a little over the last year. Not as much as the luxury sedan market has shrunk, but it remains strong.

True. My guess is that utility vehicles, particularly smaller SUV's and CUV's will continue to gain marketshare, but in an overall shrinking market (per capita anyway).

Another thing that's happening is people who buy cars (not lease) are keeping cars longer. The average age of the car fleet in the US continues to get older every year. New cars are competing with cars a few years old. In the ICE world, there is not that much that is compelling about the latest cars and you can save a lot of money buying an off lease car right now, especially an off lease sedan. The US market is glutted with them.

Yes. Is some of this due to declining resale values? I can't afford a new car if I can't get $x for my old car. And this because fewer people are buying cars to own? The number of people between 16 and 25 who do not have a drivers license has been growing steadily since the late 90's. Car ownership per capita has been declining since the early 90's and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) per capita has been declining since 2005.

 

[vigge50]

Same here, do you have the numbers for September?

 

[croman]

We have a Tesla and use public transit for commutes and wherever else we can go. We didn't own a car until we had kids. CTA and kids don't really mix well... Chicago is great and we're blessed with both urban and suburban public transit options. We do love our Tesla and it's got 17k miles since January.

 

[RubberToe]

September numbers:
2015 market share was 27.1%
2016 market share was 33.2%
2017 YTD share is 34.9%

 

[vigge50]

Do you have the November numbers in yet for an update?

 

[Reciprocity]

Do you have the November numbers in yet for an update?

The way Tesla delivers cars in the US, this is really only accurate at the end of each quarter so the percent might rise to 40%+ after December numbers. This is because Tesla delivers cars to the farthest foreign markets early in the quarter and in the US at the end of the quarter.

 

[Reciprocity]

The way Tesla delivers cars in the US, this is really only accurate at the end of each quarter so the percent might rise to 40%+ after December numbers. This is because Tesla delivers cars to the farthest foreign markets early in the quarter and in the US at the end of the quarter.

This was EOQ, so my bad. I had just assumed this was for Oct or Nov. I still expect 40% for year end in the US. One thing I have noticed is that Europe and China have been a focus of Tesla in recent quarters so the US is not getting as much love as it used to, which could suppress these numbers a bit while the WW numbers will be record setting for the 4th QTR.

Edit: And great work by @RubberToe ! I always look forward to these updates.

 

[RubberToe]

Do you have the November numbers in yet for an update?

Thanks for the reminder. Had to buy a new computer, thank goodness for Carbonite. I'll try to get the spreadsheet updated tonight.

RT

 

[RubberToe]

This was EOQ, so my bad. I had just assumed this was for Oct or Nov. I still expect 40% for year end in the US. One thing I have noticed is that Europe and China have been a focus of Tesla in recent quarters so the US is not getting as much love as it used to, which could suppress these numbers a bit while the WW numbers will be record setting for the 4th QTR.

Edit: And great work by @RubberToe ! I always look forward to these updates.

Norway is bonkers. Been watching that real time registration counter.

 

[Reciprocity]

Norway is bonkers. Been watching that real time registration counter.

Spain and Germany as well, though yeah. Norway is up to like every 1 in 180 people own a Tesla now.

 

[sakimano]

Why do they always leave the BMW 5 series out?

and the A6

the Model S ranges from base model $60,000 E/CLS/A6/A7/5and6series (think 75/75D) all the way up to the $125,000 S63/RS7/M5M6 7 series/A8/S8 in my opinion (think loaded P100D). It's fighting all of those cars in those classes.

That data would be more appropriate.

The data presented above seems to compare 100D/P100D priced cars only...and that's not fair because Tesla Model S 100D/P100D are a fraction of the total Model S sales.

 

[RubberToe]

And here are the November numbers:

 

[Reciprocity]

And here are the November numbers:

32% of the market, but im guessing that the way Tesla delivers from farthest to closest as they work through the quarter, I would estimate at least 4k more for December, but would probably need closer to 5k to hit 40% market share.

Some complaining why the 5-Series is not in this list, the 5 series starts at $50k, this is more inline with the Model 3 LR. Same goes for A4/5, maybe the A6 could be in here. I dont know much about Audi to make the guess.

 

[wdolson]

If you look at the rest of that list, you will see the companies that are also the mainstream car companies most serious about developing long range BEVs. That chart explains why. They see Tesla moving down market and it freaks them out.