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Think this is spot onFrom a different perspective. Tesla does not want to make the Model X. It's very difficult with a small margin because of lack of mass production. They make it to stay relevant for now at the higher end level. Now that they can raise prices with supply pressure they can just keep pressing the price and make money on it.
Think this is spot on
- Elon has continued to highlight the complexity of this build (2/9/2022 tweet here)
- MX Plaid is cheaper than MS Plaid, but they both have the components (i.e. 1020hp tri motor, torque vectoring) and the MX has additional features (6 seats, gullwing doors, auto-open doors) so I assume the cost to build a MX is higher than MS, but selling for a lower price
Before my wife & I placed our order for the MXP last Sat, we looked (even upcoming EV models) and no other EV can sit more than 5 at any price point except the MY.
I have two Teslas and love Tesla, but I "think" you're crazy. Especially if more seating is your trigger. Here is my theory and I can be completely wrong. I see the new Model X massively depreciating in 2-3 years when there are other 6+ seating options. The yoke and screen shifting will alienate over 50% of men and probably 75% + of women when it comes to resale. It is a very large car to park. Friends who have the Plaid tell me how frustrating it is to park. The X will be worse because of its size. 6 months in and "i'm still getting used to it" is the common theme. I have a MSLR on order. "If" it comes with a wheel at that time, I might take it. Also the replacement parts for the X will be a fortune. Reliability will be an issue. Then I think Tesla will stop making the X within 3-5 years, once the Cybertruck and Semi is full swing and whatever else they make at that time. You can not make money with a low production car. "Settling" for a $100k plus asset that deprciates is crazy.Think this is spot on
- Elon has continued to highlight the complexity of this build (2/9/2022 tweet here)
- MX Plaid is cheaper than MS Plaid, but they both have the components (i.e. 1020hp tri motor, torque vectoring) and the MX has additional features (6 seats, gullwing doors, auto-open doors) so I assume the cost to build a MX is higher than MS, but selling for a lower price
Before my wife & I placed our order for the MXP last Sat, we looked (even upcoming EV models) and no other EV can sit more than 5 at any price point except the MY.
A cursory examination of the used market doesn't reveals that it's a bit more complicated than that. All new cars depreciate (except in this insane supply chain-constrained, gotta-have-it-now-and-i-am-flush-with-cash market), but Model X is performing INSANELY well compared to luxury SUV contemporaries. Compare it to the market for used Mercedes ML SUVs and tell me when you've reattached your jaw to your face.I have two Teslas and love Tesla, but I "think" you're crazy. Especially if more seating is your trigger. Here is my theory and I can be completely wrong. I see the new Model X massively depreciating in 2-3 years when there are other 6+ seating options. The yoke and screen shifting will alienate over 50% of men and probably 75% + of women when it comes to resale. It is a very large car to park. Friends who have the Plaid tell me how frustrating it is to park. The X will be worse because of its size. 6 months in and "i'm still getting used to it" is the common theme. I have a MSLR on order. "If" it comes with a wheel at that time, I might take it. Also the replacement parts for the X will be a fortune. Reliability will be an issue. Then I think Tesla will stop making the X within 3-5 years, once the Cybertruck and Semi is full swing and whatever else they make at that time. You can not make money with a low production car. "Settling" for a $100k plus asset that deprciates is crazy.
Have you compared non-Tesla SUVs recently? Some 2 year old ICE SUVs with low mileage are selling for more than their purchase price. With many brands having 6+ months waits on new vehicles and very low inventories, used vehicles are golden.A cursory examination of the used market doesn't reveals that it's a bit more complicated than that. All new cars depreciate (except in this insane supply chain-constrained, gotta-have-it-now-and-i-am-flush-with-cash market), but Model X is performing INSANELY well compared to luxury SUV contemporaries. Compare it to the market for used Mercedes ML SUVs and tell me when you've reattached your jaw to your face.
I'm seeing 2017-2018 MX dual-motor (of some variety) examples going for $8X,000 That's nuts. That's NOT normal depreciation.
So...
While yes, "all" new cars depreciate, they do not all depreciate evenly. For me, the calculus is: Do I spend $1,000/mo on a modern full-size SUV and $500/mo to fuel it, all the while suffering steep depreciation? Or do I spend $1,500/mo on a Model X that barely depreciates and comes with 20% of the fuel costs?
Most of the money I put into the monthly payment will be recouped at sale; it's damned easy math, IMO.
PS: Relieved to have submitted my X order DAYS prior to the $10k price increase.
All used cars are selling for more now. Your X has a steering wheel. You could have bought a Model X 60 or 90 all day for around $55-65k before this insanity. I am "speculating" my theory for 2-3 years from now. Very limited people will want a used X without a warranty for a premium, high dollar amount without a real steering wheel as a family car. Especially when there are more choices. In two years if there will be 4-6 choices at $75-$85k for a new ride. Neither of us are correct, but do not think used car prices won't come back to earth once there is supply for new.A cursory examination of the used market doesn't reveals that it's a bit more complicated than that. All new cars depreciate (except in this insane supply chain-constrained, gotta-have-it-now-and-i-am-flush-with-cash market), but Model X is performing INSANELY well compared to luxury SUV contemporaries. Compare it to the market for used Mercedes ML SUVs and tell me when you've reattached your jaw to your face.
I'm seeing 2017-2018 MX dual-motor (of some variety) examples going for $8X,000 That's nuts. That's NOT normal depreciation.
So...
While yes, "all" new cars depreciate, they do not all depreciate evenly. For me, the calculus is: Do I spend $1,000/mo on a modern full-size SUV and $500/mo to fuel it, all the while suffering steep depreciation? Or do I spend $1,500/mo on a Model X that barely depreciates and comes with 20% of the fuel costs?
Most of the money I put into the monthly payment will be recouped at sale; it's damned easy math, IMO.
PS: Relieved to have submitted my X order DAYS prior to the $10k price increase.
This is a reasonable assessment, but I think the current used-car market phenomenon is less pronounced with Tesla (ergo closer to the norm). I wouldn't have wanted anything less than a 90D. Current performance leads me to believe a 100D would be my real baseline (daily driver is a P3D+).All used cars are selling for more now. Your X has a steering wheel. You could have bought a Model X 60 or 90 all day for around $55-65k before this insanity. I am "speculating" my theory for 2-3 years from now. Very limited people will want a used X without a warranty for a premium, high dollar amount without a real steering wheel as a family car. Especially when there are more choices. In two years if there will be 4-6 choices at $75-$85k for a new ride. Neither of us are correct, but do not think used car prices won't come back to earth once there is supply for new.
Good points as well. It’s all nonsense. We are talking about cars, not really important with what is going on in the world right now.This is a reasonable assessment, but I think the current used-car market phenomenon is less pronounced with Tesla (ergo closer to the norm). I wouldn't have wanted anything less than a 90D. Current performance leads me to believe a 100D would be my real baseline (daily driver is a P3D+).
My strategy addresses the following factors:
1. The yoke isn't a problem. I can mod it to a steering wheel easily enough, anyway.
2. Post-refresh infotainment performance is night-and-day better than pre-refresh. If you've watched reviews, it's staggeringly better.
3. It's a brand new refresh. Every previous model year should -- absent the supply/demand insanity of the current market -- see values erode slightly due to their outdated infotainment.
4. My purchase is already positioned to give me $10k in upside because I purchased over the weekend, days before the increase. The price might drop by the time I take delivery, but it doesn't seem likely...
5. Availability of the refreshed Model X looks like it'll be garbage for quite a while. Some aren't willing to deal with that. Based on all the factors I can see from here, I might be able to purchase an X and immediate flip it for a (small) profit on Cars & Bids. I would rather keep it and drive it, of course, but it's nice to have options.
If you truly feel that inflation within the used market for X is so pronounced, I will give this significant consideration. I know the market has had a not-insignficant effect, but I didn't think my assessment of my X's residuals was quite so blue-sky. Perhaps you're right, but I'm certain reality will land me somewhere in the middle.
I waited a long time to place my order.. I have been playing with the thought of getting one for months and finally decided to order 3 weeks ago.. Glad that I did...Sure glad I already pulled the trigger on my order….. I had been kicking tires for months.View attachment 781383
I may not agree few points you said.I have two Teslas and love Tesla, but I "think" you're crazy. Especially if more seating is your trigger. Here is my theory and I can be completely wrong. I see the new Model X massively depreciating in 2-3 years when there are other 6+ seating options. The yoke and screen shifting will alienate over 50% of men and probably 75% + of women when it comes to resale. It is a very large car to park. Friends who have the Plaid tell me how frustrating it is to park. The X will be worse because of its size. 6 months in and "i'm still getting used to it" is the common theme. I have a MSLR on order. "If" it comes with a wheel at that time, I might take it. Also the replacement parts for the X will be a fortune. Reliability will be an issue. Then I think Tesla will stop making the X within 3-5 years, once the Cybertruck and Semi is full swing and whatever else they make at that time. You can not make money with a low production car. "Settling" for a $100k plus asset that deprciates is crazy.
I have two Teslas and love Tesla, but I "think" you're crazy. Especially if more seating is your trigger. Here is my theory and I can be completely wrong. I see the new Model X massively depreciating in 2-3 years when there are other 6+ seating options. The yoke and screen shifting will alienate over 50% of men and probably 75% + of women when it comes to resale. It is a very large car to park. Friends who have the Plaid tell me how frustrating it is to park. The X will be worse because of its size. 6 months in and "i'm still getting used to it" is the common theme. I have a MSLR on order. "If" it comes with a wheel at that time, I might take it. Also the replacement parts for the X will be a fortune. Reliability will be an issue. Then I think Tesla will stop making the X within 3-5 years, once the Cybertruck and Semi is full swing and whatever else they make at that time. You can not make money with a low production car. "Settling" for a $100k plus asset that deprciates is crazy.
I may not agree few points you said.
I have heard that Tesla removed 5/7 seats options from Plaid because they see 6 seats has more reservations.
I personally noticed all YT videos that I viewed have more 6 seats than others.
MX is not as big as you think and parking wouldn’t be a problem or your friends are not good in parking in general.
Model S/X are Tesla flagship vehicles, so I don’t think they would stop it even remove FWD.
We don’t know actual margin for MS and MX but there’s still a lot of people who’s waiting for delivery, so low production cars don’t mean less money.
Everything we are both saying is an opinion, but it is a fact low production cars, at low prices are not profitable. $130 k is a low price. That’s why Teslas entire business is streamlined. Bentleys are $300k, if the X cost that much it would be profitable. Musk has said a few months ago the Cybertruck would cost a million dollars if he were to make it now is because as it stands it is difficult to make abs production would be low. He could be exaggerating but he claims the X is extremely difficult to make. Same thingI may not agree few points you said.
I have heard that Tesla removed 5/7 seats options from Plaid because they see 6 seats has more reservations.
I personally noticed all YT videos that I viewed have more 6 seats than others.
MX is not as big as you think and parking wouldn’t be a problem or your friends are not good in parking in general.
Model S/X are Tesla flagship vehicles, so I don’t think they would stop it even remove FWD.
We don’t know actual margin for MS and MX but there’s still a lot of people who’s waiting for delivery, so low production cars don’t mean less money.
IMO, if you said 130K is low price, then people would not be whining about tiny imperfect details, gaps.Everything we are both saying is an opinion, but it is a fact low production cars, at low prices are not profitable. $130 k is a low price. That’s why Teslas entire business is streamlined. Bentleys are $300k, if the X cost that much it would be profitable. Musk has said a few months ago the Cybertruck would cost a million dollars if he were to make it now is because as it stands it is difficult to make abs production would be low. He could be exaggerating but he claims the X is extremely difficult to make. Same thing
$130k is a fortune for a car but a very low price for a car that isn’t mass produced. When I talk about price in this context, I’m regarding the manufacture. I have experience with motorized fertilizer machinery. It was quadruple the price the manufacturer low volume of a similar machine mass produced. Respectfully, this is general knowledge and factual to anyone who produces most any product that needs to be assembled.IMO, if you said 130K is low price, then people would not be whining about tiny imperfect details, gaps.
Then we also don't know tesla profit margin on their vehicles.