Model X Subsite Updates

[fengshui]

If the S pack sizes do get upgrades, they may handle it in a similar way to what they did with the Autopilot hardware:

"By the way, all Model S produced for the last two weeks include upgraded battery packs"

*queue massive applause*

Probably not. After the Autopilot issues, Tesla clearly stated they don't plan any changes to the hardware platform for S in 2015. If there are extended batteries, I think Tesla will roll them out to Model S in 2016, probably after Panasonic refits a factory or two to produce the new density cells in quantity for S.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Yeah, changing cells is a major undertaking. It will take time to upgrade the equipment and it would probably be done in stages. My guess is the Model X launches with the 60, 85 and ~95 kWh packs, and then over the next few months the 85 kWh pack is phased out, both for the Model S and X. After the 85 kWh pack is phased out they at some point replace the 60 kWh pack with a ~67 kWh pack, after they have been able to get rid of the remaining supply of old cells.

One interesting thing to consider is what happens with warranty repairs? I would think that most battery pack replacements under warranty would be with remanufactured old packs, but the supply of these packs would dwindle, so at some point Tesla might start to replace old 85 kWh packs with ~95 kWh packs, and 60 kWh packs with ~67 kWh packs.

 

[darthy001]

Yeah, changing cells is a major undertaking. It will take time to upgrade the equipment and it would probably be done in stages. My guess is the Model X launches with the 60, 85 and ~95 kWh packs, and then over the next few months the 85 kWh pack is phased out, both for the Model S and X. After the 85 kWh pack is phased out they at some point replace the 60 kWh pack with a ~67 kWh pack, after they have been able to get rid of the remaining supply of old cells.

One interesting thing to consider is what happens with warranty repairs? I would think that most battery pack replacements under warranty would be with remanufactured old packs, but the supply of these packs would dwindle, so at some point Tesla might start to replace old 85 kWh packs with ~95 kWh packs, and 60 kWh packs with ~67 kWh packs.

And what about the infamous battery swap stations? Going into beta-testing just before releasing a new battery seems strange to me.

 

[Yggdrasill]

And what about the infamous battery swap stations? Going into beta-testing just before releasing a new battery seems strange to me.

Wouldn't being able to rent a 95 kWh pack for a weekend for ones 60 kWh Model S be great? The new packs will almost certainly have the same format as the old ones.

 

[WarpedOne]

Only adding 10kWh in a new battery is not worth the effort and complexity.
Another 25 or 30 is another story. Drop the 60 and introduce 110. Voila.

 

[darthy001]

Wouldn't being able to rent a 95 kWh pack for a weekend for ones 60 kWh Model S be great? The new packs will almost certainly have the same format as the old ones.

Nice? Yes.

Logistics nightmare? Most likely

 

[NigelM]

Look at how long it's taken to roll-out Superchargers; battery swap stations will not be appearing in numbers anytime soon.

(somewhere back there this thread went waaaay off topic)

 

[cgiGuy]

If the S pack sizes do get upgrades, they may handle it in a similar way to what they did with the Autopilot hardware:

"By the way, all Model S produced for the last two weeks include upgraded battery packs"

*queue massive applause*

*queue "batterygate" (ticked off people who just had their "old" MS delivered 6 hours prior)*

 

[Nubo]

I think there's some magic if you can get to 100kWh. Because then you can plausibly start stating your pack size in megawatt-hours. Any other manufacturer trying to follow that convention with less than .1mWh would just accentuate how behind they are.

 

[SteveG3]

Probably not. After the Autopilot issues, Tesla clearly stated they don't plan any changes to the hardware platform for S in 2015. If there are extended batteries, I think Tesla will roll them out to Model S in 2016, probably after Panasonic refits a factory or two to produce the new density cells in quantity for S.

I certainly may have missed something, but what I've seen from Tesla on the subject would not rule out a change to the battery size options for the Model S in 2015, perhaps not too long after the time of the Model X launch.

From a newsletter they emailed 11/7/14 (bolding added),

With the introduction of Dual Motor and Autopilot, there will be no further significant platform changes to Model S for about a year. ​

 

[Earlian]

"About a year" doesn't exclude changes in Q3 when MX rolls out.

Don't forget EM: "I do have an issue with punctuality" - could fly both ways.

If, they could solve some problems (more and better batteries, reduce costs), why wouldn't they aim for the next level and increase range for both Models, or first get the MX to the same range (weight/size problem) and when Panasonic ramps up, or GF, then upgrade Model S?

 

[Svenssons]

It would be interesting to know the weight of each battery revision (is F the latest?). Maybe Tesla is already using newer battery technology in the latest revision because it would benefit both them and the customer. They would be able to test the newer technology in bigger scale and save money on materials for the battery cells. The customer would get a car that weigh less and have longer range. A new batter pack with higher capacity is probably not going to happen this year even if Tesla is testing newer battery technology today. Production of newer battery cells will probably be limited until Gigafactory and maybe reserved for Model X this year.

 

[pr0teu5]

I don't know if it has been mentioned yet, but the fact that Tesla does not offer an S60D makes it unlikely that they'll offer an X60D. Since they say that all Model X will have dual motor and that there will be multiple battery options makes it likely that there will be options belond 85kWh and no 60kWh at all.

 

[trialcritic]

I would love it if they update all batteries and have a 110Kwh option. They should remove the 60Kwh option. 85Kwh and 110kwh only. I want the Model X to go 400 miles if possible. Nothing wrong in dreaming

 

[andrewket]

Only adding 10kWh in a new battery is not worth the effort and complexity.
Another 25 or 30 is another story. Drop the 60 and introduce 110. Voila.

I think this is more likely as well. The X weighs more and has a higher drag coefficient. An X with a 110kWh battery will help it achieve better range than an 85D model S, or at least equivalent.

 

[Saghost]

I think this is more likely as well. The X weighs more and has a higher drag coefficient. An X with a 110kWh battery will help it achieve better range than an 85D model S, or at least equivalent.

In principle I'd agree it's not a bad idea. In practice, though...

How are you planning to get to 110 kWh? The current 16x6x74 module structure doesn't lend itself easily to that. You'd either need cells with 40% more capacity than the ones in the 85 kWh battery, or else 40% more cells.

As far as I know the 40% larger cells in mass production in a size compatible with the existing pack tooling don't exist.

To get 40% more cells, you either need to add 6 more modules or make bigger modules. Adding 6 more modules means 40% higher voltage, too - 640 volts nominal.
Are the chargers and drive inverters capable of handling that safely?
What about the cabin heater and A/C compressor?
Are the pack contactors safe for that higher voltage?
Can the Superchargers charge a car in that range (kinda a gimme, since Tesla is using the same hardware in the car chargers and the superchargers - either both will be fine or neither will, aside from potential cable issues.)

Where do you put 6 more modules? You'd pretty much have to break compatibility with the Model S battery pack and make one that's either a bunch longer or twice as thick. (Both certainly doable, but is it worth the complexity?)

Or you can start from scratch with new tooling and automation. Make new modules of whatever size works, make new packs from the new modules. That lets you keep the system voltage the same (and with it all of the drive and accessory components,) but at the cost of having to make a new set of tooling and robots/programming for the new system and carrying two sets of parts for the life of both programs - and you still have to find 40% more volume under the car somewhere.

Based on the above concerns, my bet is that you'll see Tesla sticking with the existing packs, until/unless they can find a source for large numbers of cells with a higher capacity in the same volume at a reasonable price - at which point you'll see a new capacity introduced using the existing module design and pack design.

(I also wouldn't be terribly surprised if Tesla made a fractionally larger pack by putting a seventeenth module on top of the existing front double stack in the new taller car. It retains compatibility for nearly everything, and the ~20V jump in system voltage likely isn't enough to create problems, while the extra ~5 kWh might just about offset the larger heavier car.)
Walter

 

[adiggs]

Your comments are strongly persuasive to me @Saghost, even if I don't want them to be

One issue that I don't see a way to address though - there won't BE affordable higher capacity cells available in higher volume UNTIL Tesla starts putting them into packs and selling them. It'll be Tesla putting the higher capacity cells into packs and then into cars that will create the volume that will bring down the prices.

From that point of view, I'm thinking that Model X is a great platform to start making that happen (given that the chemistry exists with more capacity and enough testing to be roadworthy).


And this issue - that the cells may be improving by a few % every year, but they don't get implemented as a few better % each year - is something that Tesla and the rest of the industry will always be facing.

 

[aronth5]

Only adding 10kWh in a new battery is not worth the effort and complexity.
Another 25 or 30 is another story. Drop the 60 and introduce 110. Voila.

How do you know what the effort and complexity is? As far as we know adding 10kWh is not difficult at all but adding more than that is very complicated. Who knows.
The one thing that does seem likely with the removal of the battery sizes for the X on Tesla's web site is the 60kWh battery won't be offered.
Beyond that we are all having a great time guessing:smile:

 

[Saghost]

And this issue - that the cells may be improving by a few % every year, but they don't get implemented as a few better % each year - is something that Tesla and the rest of the industry will always be facing.

For any given product line, the few percent per year doesn't really exist. It's a smoothed approximation from the actual steps that happen with major redesigns/upgrades that are several years apart. (Which may be what you were saying above.)

On way to deal with this is to design so you can use multiple products from different product lines - then by switching products as they refresh you get more frequent improvements.

(Tesla has commented on various occasions that they are using this strategy, though more for cost control than for frequent updates. Despite the press releases, as far as I know they've pretty much only bought cells from Panasonic, who is also their partner for the gigafactory. I haven't done a detailed search, though - I could be mistaken.)
Walter

 

[robby]

The one thing that does seem likely with the removal of the battery sizes for the X on Tesla's web site is the 60kWh battery won't be offered.

Keep in mind, the updated copy says "Offered with multiple battery and performance options." So if the 60 is gone, we know another option will take its place. Model X | Tesla Motors

- - - Updated - - -

It's also worth remembering that when the Roadster 3.0 was announced, Elon tweeted that the Model S would not be getting a battery upgrade anytime in the near-term. If a bigger battery were made available for the X, I'd expect it to be made available for the S, too. So the more likely scenarios I think are (1) the copy change implied nothing and 60 and 85 are here to stay, or (2) they bump the 60 up a little bit to meet a range quota.