Model X Tally

[tanner]

I, like many others here, want Tesla to take their time and get it as perfect as possible. So whenever they are ready is fine by me.

Certainly loving the Model S in the meantime. To quote a wise woman, it certainly helps to have a Tesla while you wait.

Agreed, so true I just want the reviews to come out / all the features to be outlined. Can't wait for summer, I don't mind waiting a bit for mine though if they have to work kinks out of the initial units.

 

[bonnie]

To quote a wise woman, it certainly helps to have a Tesla while you wait.

You have such a way with words.

 

[JohnSnowNW]

I just reserved my X yesterday and apparently I'm #15,827

I reserved my X 13 days ago, and was 15,662...that's almost 200 reservations in 2 weeks!

 

[tanner]

I reserved my X 13 days ago, and was 15,662...that's almost 200 reservations in 2 weeks!

Or about 12.6/day! That's pretty good
We're also relatively close in sequence, congrats on your reservation!

 

[hiddengems99]

Question(s) for the board - my Model X reservation is #371 - Non-Sig. If you switch from General Production to a Sig, do you go to the back of the line on the Sigs?

Were all pre-ordered Model S Sigs & Performance delivered before the Base Model 85KW's?

 

[bonnie]

Question(s) for the board - my Model X reservation is #371 - Non-Sig. If you switch from General Production to a Sig, do you go to the back of the line on the Sigs?

You'd be at the back of the line IF there were any spots left. Model X Signatures were sold out months ago. And my understanding is that there is a fairly deep waiting list.

 

[Beryl]

#15980
Back of the line so will be happy to hear every before me getting their X.

 

[Paul Carter]

Congrats. Hopefully your wait will be shorter than those before you! If they can ramp up those at this point won't be waiting years for it.

 

[Vaasttu]

My Reservation # is #8377. Is there a remote possibility that it would be ready this year?

 

[CmdrThor]

My Reservation # is #8377. Is there a remote possibility that it would be ready this year?

If deliveries do begin August-September as promised, and if the ramp up to 800 per week happens quickly as promised, then yes there is a decent chance you get yours by this year (they will be trying to deliver as many is possible December 2015 before the end of the year). It also depends how many get deployed to the US and how many go overseas.

 

[dirkhh]

My Reservation # is #8377. Is there a remote possibility that it would be ready this year?

Hi Vaasttu and welcome to TMC!
At this point it's all speculation. The optimists will tell you that Tesla appears to aim for the ability to produce 1000 Model X per week by the end of 2015 so this would appear possible.
Others are arguing that the ramp will be slower. I'm about 2000 spots ahead of you on the reservation list and expect to get a 2016 Model X...

 

[Paul Carter]

My Reservation # is #8377. Is there a remote possibility that it would be ready this year?

Congrats & Welcome to TMC!

If deliveries do begin August-September as promised, and if the ramp up to 800 per week happens quickly as promised, then yes there is a decent chance you get yours by this year (they will be trying to deliver as many is possible December 2015 before the end of the year). It also depends how many get deployed to the US and how many go overseas.

I've been seeing speculation of 5,000 to 8,500 deliveries for 2015.

I would guess these would all be US (purely speculating based on the 10K report that launch will be in US first) and 100 founders, 1,200 signatures + 3,700 to 6,700 production. Also taking into account ~ 17.5% cancelled based on Q4 results (almost 20k reservations as of Dec 31, 2014) that could mean:

US production reservation holders in the range up to 5,800 to 9,400 just might get theirs at year end. Given so many factors for the ramp up, this could swing widely. Let's hope for the best!

I now think I'll get my Canadian signature by Feb 2016. But who knows, it may be sooner if everything goes well! Fingers crossed.

 

[Paul Carter]

Tally hit 25k! (About 21k including estimated cancellations)

 

[dirkhh]

Tally hit 25k! (About 21k including estimated cancellations)

From a statistical point of view - I'd apply your degrading factor to the number up until the earnings announcement. I don't see a reason to assume that the people who have made reservations since that have a 20% cancellation ratio as well...

 

[Paul Carter]

From a statistical point of view - I'd apply your degrading factor to the number up until the earnings announcement. I don't see a reason to assume that the people who have made reservations since that have a 20% cancellation ratio as well...

Agree. Up to Dec 31, 2014, 17.5%, afterwards very little (they won't be waiting that long... fingers crossed), maybe 20/month? I've included that in my estimate.. formulas on the Model X stat google spreadsheet that's mentioned in the wiki post at the start of this thread.:

 

[dirkhh]

Agree. Up to Dec 31, 2014, 17.5%, afterwards very little (they won't be waiting that long... fingers crossed), maybe 20/month? I've included that in my estimate.. formulas on the Model X stat google spreadsheet that's mentioned in the wiki post at the start of this thread.:

So we assume Bonnie gets hers in October (Tesla time for Q2, right?). Then ramp to 1000/week over about three months. So let's say 6500 the first three month (so mine will be ready in January) and everyone who has ordered so far will get their's by about May?

 

[Paul Carter]

So we assume Bonnie gets hers in October (Tesla time for Q2, right?). Then ramp to 1000/week over about three months. So let's say 6500 the first three month (so mine will be ready in January) and everyone who has ordered so far will get their's by about May?

Hmmm... a pool bet on Bonnie's delivery sounds fun. I put in for September 23.

Was trying out some models (had an initial thread on that a while ago). So far thinking reaching midpoint of 6,750 for the most likely case (assuming Sept 23 as first delivery). However, want to take some time and analyze the latest D ramp up to see if that could show faster ramp. Hoping to get 2015 at least guesstimated this month.

 

[PimEffting]

got #3411
(ordered 9/feb/15)

 

[Paul Carter]

got #3411
(ordered 9/feb/15)

Congrats and welcome to TMC!

 

[Iwan]

Actually already owning a MS85 since december 2013. Learned a lot on TMC, but have been a long time lurker around the forum...(maybe too long):redface:
Anyway, now *really* being part of the club as registered member feels much better!

As petrolhead; going Tesla is addictive! Few days ago finally decided to go MX .
got res #3404 since 02-03-15.