Model Y standard range for UK - will it happen

[2020M3SR]

I think every Tesla imported into a market/sector sells 2 more later. Model 3 probably near killed BMW3 equivalents. Model Y still has some way to go to become better known with the BMW/Audi SUV crowd. Teslas sell Teslas. Model Y seems more popular in most markets it's been sold in, I'd expect same in UK. Demand will snowball.

Its a fair point and maybe more Ys on the road will get peoples interest

I hope not, as I don't really want to pay extra for a LR that I dont actually need which is why I'm crossing my fingers for an SR MY

I'm going to play the waiting game and see what happens

 

[Peteski]

You are using words like 'expect' and 'likely'

Let's look at facts for a moment. Despite being new release, people on here were ordering MY late Feb and getting one a couple of weeks later. How could that happen with high demand?

Last week on the website, you could order one and get it next month once the boats came in. Obviously it's now impossible due to the shutdowns in China, but if demand was high, the date would have been Q3 or Q4

Tesla also has the benefit 0f a nice tailwind due to VW group SUVs being at least a year from otder to delivery, giving Tesla some extra customers that it might not have otherwise got. And still, despite that, Tesla MY lead time remains very short.

So I'm not really sure how you can observe these facts and say demand is growing. Quite the contrary tbh. Initial launch demand was easily met, which is telling.

I think this time next year at the latest is when we will see the SR MY. Unless of course the rest of Europe goes crazy for MIG MY, then Tesla might just let UK MY orders dribble along.

I ordered an MY about 3 weeks ago and it was estimating July delivery. This was before the factory lockdown. Now at that time I could have picked up one with 20" wheels with an estimated May delivery, but that was at an extra cost of £2100. AFAIK those have all gone now.

Tesla make cars in relatively large batches, so when those batches first arrive then there is a good chance you can get one within a few weeks. There are always order cancellations and people failing finance checks etc. But once those cars sell, you may then have to wait quite sometime for the next batch. For example M3s are now showing August delivery and Sept for MY.

Demand for all EVs is growing fast and will only accelerate in the next few years. You only have to look at the sales charts or even out on the road!

Of course I'm using words like "expect" and "likely" as the future is not set in stone. A bit like you saying "I think this time next year at the latest". You could be right or you could be wrong, but I wouldn't count on lack of demand as your main argument!

 

[WannabeOwner]

People on here were ordering MY late Feb and getting one a couple of weeks later. How could that happen with high demand?

I think all people in queue, for later deliveries, were left in that state.

Then, for any cars which were spare, new enquires were told "You can have one tomorrow" (Tesla bulk-build for each colour etc and NOT to individual order; that may leave some unallocated in each batch; also there are some from reallocation of cancelled orders including failure to accept assigned delivery date). For all I know Tesla deliberately include a small percentage of unallocated in each shipment (for "PR") and then allocate those to new customer enquiries so that people get on Social Media to tell all their mates "Hey! I ordered a Tesla yesterday and picked it up today".

I suspect that's a lot easier on Operations than asking all existing backlog customers IF they can take one sooner.

It isn't anything new that, at the end of the Quarter, if you are quick (when they come online) and flexible on Colour / Options you can nab a "spare" which Sales needed to convert to cash before Financial Quarter End.

MY and M3 sold the same number (within 1% of a percent) in Feb and March. I didn't spend long looking for figures, so there may be more for months that I didn't easily find :

2021 Q1 M3 7,732, MY 7,770
2020 Q4 M3 12,689
2020 Q3 M3 6,879 (only one months figure, might have been some in August but less than 1,000)
2020 Q2 M3 5,468 (only one months figure, might have been some in May but less than 2,500)
2020 Q1 M3 6.583 (only one months figure, might have been some in February but less than 900)

I don't know how the comparison of Q2/Q3 last year compared to the, very high, Q4 sales was caused by a flood as the restrictions we faced here eased. Nor whether the same numbers of MY and M3 means that MY has eaten the M3 sales ... or complimented it.

On the face of it the M3 2021-Q1 sales are the same as Q1, Q2 and Q3 last year ... in which case MY could be seen as being "on top of that"

Last week on the website, you could order one and get it next month once the boats came in.

Not quite (but I think you are right in essence). There is a "general" delivery date for orders placed "now". But the actual delivery date is not set until the VIN is assigned (and that is done shortly before the boat docks, not any earlier than that). If you then can't take the delivery date which you are assigned then your car will be assigned to someone else (maybe one of the "Walk-in lucky PR-Promoters")

You will find some posts here saying "How come you got one and I didn't, we ordered at the same time and got the same (initial) delivery date". The disappointed punter just happened to have ordered a combination of features that weren't available in that batch

I got one of the very first M3s into the country. The world and his wife put down a $1,000 deposit when the car was announced, and got a serial number ... and assumed they would be allocated in order. I didn't do that, I just placed an order when the UK order book opened. But I did a very sneaky thing ...

... I ordered the most unpopular colour / option and collection from the site handing over the most cars (even at that time it was between 100 and 200 a day out of Heathrow). Except that I had no idea I was doing that when I placed my order ...

a nice tailwind due to VW group SUVs being at least a year from otder to delivery, giving Tesla some extra customers that it might not have otherwise got

I see that differently. VW has more or less kept the RRP price the same and allowed the wait list to grow. Ford is doing the same and now their Pickup, which has been far more successful than their "No one will want EVs" strategy had predicted, has something like a 3 year wait. Tesla, OTOH, had jacked up the price every month or two to the point where only those who wanted to afford it join the queue, and apart from the unfortunate situation in Shanghai the waitlist has basically been "the next delivery quarter". I think that's a master stroke - both for profitability, and PR.

 

[Rooster6655]

Let's look at facts for a moment. Despite being new release, people on here were ordering MY late Feb and getting one a couple of weeks later. How could that happen with high demand?

I think people are confusing high demand and backlog, the backlog of orders will have been fulfilled now, they can now deal with new orders coming in and ship accordingly.

Based on the line in the invoice for the LR the SR would currently sell for £9000 inc vat less. making it £45990, introducing the SR variant would bring them more sales overall fro the Y but I can't see this being introduced until next year and by then I expect the price of the LR to have gone up by about £5k.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Its a fair point and maybe more Ys on the road will get peoples interest

I hope not, as I don't really want to pay extra for a LR that I dont actually need which is why I'm crossing my fingers for an SR MY

I'm going to play the waiting game and see what happens

JPR007 on twitter - implication being that EV supply won't keep up with EV demand. ICE demand and therefore sales will plummet.

Personally I'd order now and nearer the time, say

1. yes
2. no
3. flip it to someone else at a tidy profit (there are T&Cs against this in some countries).

 

[Peteski]

Its a fair point and maybe more Ys on the road will get peoples interest

I hope not, as I don't really want to pay extra for a LR that I dont actually need which is why I'm crossing my fingers for an SR MY

I'm going to play the waiting game and see what happens

Residuals are so strong at the moment that you could buy an LR now and then downgrade to an SR in a year or so at minimal net cost. We've just traded in our Dec 20 M3 LR with 14k miles for less than £1k in depreciation. Obviously can't guarantee future residuals, but I think it would be a good bet. I can only see new car prices rising over the next few years. To put it in perspective a new M3 SR is less than £2k cheaper than we paid for our M3 LR in Dec 20.

So your waiting game might not help much.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Residuals are so strong at the moment that you could buy an LR now and then downgrade to an SR in a year or so at minimal net cost. We've just traded in our Dec 20 M3 LR with 14k miles for less than £1k in depreciation. Obviously can't guarantee future residuals, but I think it would be a good bet. I can only see new car prices rising over the next few years. To put it in perspective a new M3 SR is less than £2k cheaper than we paid for our M3 LR in Dec 20.

So your waiting game might not help much.

The bigger the green line in the graph above, the better the resale price, even to the point of making a profit - not advice, but it's something I think could very well happen.

Before I decided on M3, I was looking at 3 year residuals/depreciation % on the type of car I was likely to get. Now I look at my car's value and it's lost very little. Maybe on a good day I could get back it's cost. Not bad for worst period of car depreciation! Other cars may have this to some effect, but I can see used prices for Tesla staying very strong, even above new prices. It's part of why Tesla have continued to raise prices. Input prices have risen, but margins have risen faster.

Everyone has to make their own choice though.

 

[Rooster6655]

Residuals are so strong at the moment that you could buy an LR now and then downgrade to an SR in a year or so at minimal net cost.

If the MY LR price increases £5k I expect to be able to trade in for a new LR with parcel shelf for minimal net cost

 

[2020M3SR]

I think all people in queue, for later deliveries, were left in that state.

Then, for any cars which were spare, new enquires were told "You can have one tomorrow" (Tesla bulk-build for each colour etc and NOT to individual order; that may leave some unallocated in each batch; also there are some from reallocation of cancelled orders including failure to accept assigned delivery date). For all I know Tesla deliberately include a small percentage of unallocated in each shipment (for "PR") and then allocate those to new customer enquiries so that people get on Social Media to tell all their mates "Hey! I ordered a Tesla yesterday and picked it up today".

I suspect that's a lot easier on Operations than asking all existing backlog customers IF they can take one sooner.

It isn't anything new that, at the end of the Quarter, if you are quick (when they come online) and flexible on Colour / Options you can nab a "spare" which Sales needed to convert to cash before Financial Quarter End.

MY and M3 sold the same number (within 1% of a percent) in Feb and March. I didn't spend long looking for figures, so there may be more for months that I didn't easily find :

2021 Q1 M3 7,732, MY 7,770
2020 Q4 M3 12,689
2020 Q3 M3 6,879 (only one months figure, might have been some in August but less than 1,000)
2020 Q2 M3 5,468 (only one months figure, might have been some in May but less than 2,500)
2020 Q1 M3 6.583 (only one months figure, might have been some in February but less than 900)

I don't know how the comparison of Q2/Q3 last year compared to the, very high, Q4 sales was caused by a flood as the restrictions we faced here eased. Nor whether the same numbers of MY and M3 means that MY has eaten the M3 sales ... or complimented it.

On the face of it the M3 2021-Q1 sales are the same as Q1, Q2 and Q3 last year ... in which case MY could be seen as being "on top of that"



Not quite (but I think you are right in essence). There is a "general" delivery date for orders placed "now". But the actual delivery date is not set until the VIN is assigned (and that is done shortly before the boat docks, not any earlier than that). If you then can't take the delivery date which you are assigned then your car will be assigned to someone else (maybe one of the "Walk-in lucky PR-Promoters")

You will find some posts here saying "How come you got one and I didn't, we ordered at the same time and got the same (initial) delivery date". The disappointed punter just happened to have ordered a combination of features that weren't available in that batch

I got one of the very first M3s into the country. The world and his wife put down a $1,000 deposit when the car was announced, and got a serial number ... and assumed they would be allocated in order. I didn't do that, I just placed an order when the UK order book opened. But I did a very sneaky thing ...

... I ordered the most unpopular colour / option and collection from the site handing over the most cars (even at that time it was between 100 and 200 a day out of Heathrow). Except that I had no idea I was doing that when I placed my order ...



I see that differently. VW has more or less kept the RRP price the same and allowed the wait list to grow. Ford is doing the same and now their Pickup, which has been far more successful than their "No one will want EVs" strategy had predicted, has something like a 3 year wait. Tesla, OTOH, had jacked up the price every month or two to the point where only those who wanted to afford it join the queue, and apart from the unfortunate situation in Shanghai the waitlist has basically been "the next delivery quarter". I think that's a master stroke - both for profitability, and PR.

Good post and some really good points

I think where I may disagree is the last bit. Maybe squeezing as much out of customers is a good thing for shareholders, but I'm not one of them. I'm a customer.

If they countine to jack up prices just because they can (which they haven't on the MY tbf) then I'll simply not buy one. I'll just drive the M3 and then go to another brand when it's time to change. Its not like I'm locked into Tesla just because I've got an M3

They haven't jacked up the MY prices though, so it's a moot point anyway. If they bring out an SR MY at SR M3 prices then happy days.

I certainly wouldn't be renewing my M3 for another M3 at these new prices though. £40k is fine but for the base car with a colour choice and alloys now in the £50k region, its just too expensive compared to 2 short years ago. I'm just glad I bought when I did before prices started climbing!

 

[UkNorthampton]

Good post and some really good points

I think where I may disagree is the last bit. Maybe squeezing as much out of customers is a good thing for shareholders, but I'm not one of them. I'm a customer.

If they countine to jack up prices just because they can (which they haven't on the MY tbf) then I'll simply not buy one. I'll just drive the M3 and then go to another brand when it's time to change. Its not like I'm locked into Tesla just because I've got an M3

They haven't jacked up the MY prices though, so it's a moot point anyway. If they bring out an SR MY at SR M3 prices then happy days.

I certainly wouldn't be renewing my M3 for another M3 at these new prices though. £40k is fine but for the base car with a colour choice and alloys now in the £50k region, its just too expensive compared to 2 short years ago. I'm just glad I bought when I did before prices started climbing!

Tesla have a problem, huge demand, in many countries people were flipping newly bought ones for a profit. Tesla have the excuse of higher materials prices, they also pre-empted USA EV credits.

As a result, they've upped there prices which probably keeps orders to sensible levels. At some point Tesla might lower prices, they have the room to do this. With mine, the price I ordered was higher than the current price at delivery time - so I got it for the cheaper price. If Tesla keep this policy, then you pay the lower value either way - so it seems like an opportunity to me.

 

[Peteski]

Good post and some really good points

I think where I may disagree is the last bit. Maybe squeezing as much out of customers is a good thing for shareholders, but I'm not one of them. I'm a customer.

If they countine to jack up prices just because they can (which they haven't on the MY tbf) then I'll simply not buy one. I'll just drive the M3 and then go to another brand when it's time to change. Its not like I'm locked into Tesla just because I've got an M3

They haven't jacked up the MY prices though, so it's a moot point anyway. If they bring out an SR MY at SR M3 prices then happy days.

I certainly wouldn't be renewing my M3 for another M3 at these new prices though. £40k is fine but for the base car with a colour choice and alloys now in the £50k region, its just too expensive compared to 2 short years ago. I'm just glad I bought when I did before prices started climbing!

On the other hand you will probably find that your 2 year old M3 is worth close to what you paid for it new. Now is a very good time to trade it in against a MY before an almost inevitable MY price hike. At the moment the M3 LR is the same price as the MY LR in the UK, which is out of step with other markets.

I think an SR MY coming in at current SR M3 prices is wishful thinking. They are more likely to hike MY LR prices at some point and then slot in an SR close to current LR prices. But that's all speculation. At the moment the MY LR looks like good value compared to the M3 LR, so I'm taking advantage of that while I can.

 

[Rooster6655]

I think an SR MY coming in at current SR M3 prices is wishful thinking. They are more likely to hike MY LR prices at some point and then slot in an SR close to current LR prices. But that's all speculation. At the moment the MY LR looks like good value compared to the M3 LR, so I'm taking advantage of that while I can.

Yes the MY is priced at a premium compared to the M3 in other countries, I highly doubt they would introduce the Y SR at the same price of the 3 SR.

There certainly isn't a demand issue but people get confused about the way that the cars are delivered in bulk and think being able to order a car and get it delivered within 2 weeks within a very limited window of a quarter is a demand issue.

A demand issue is when you drive past a legacy dealership and they have more new cars available in 1 dealership than Tesla has new cars available in the whole country.

 

[WannabeOwner]

I think where I may disagree is the last bit. Maybe squeezing as much out of customers is a good thing for shareholders, but I'm not one of them. I'm a customer.

I definitely agree with you, its just it hasn't been my experience. I've had 6 cars (family members and a couple of trade ins) off Tesla since 2015. Two of them MS so "a reasonable wedge of money". I've introduced plenty of people - only just managed to finish using up the referral miles, despite Sprogs happily camping on my account (my MS is "free supercharging", so miles no use to me)... and they were only 1,000 per referral, so there must have been "several" referrals. My point: I think I should be regarded as a good customer.

Latest trade in they mucked up the price. The original price they gave me was fine (6% depreciation over 2 years and 10K miles), but they then offered me a better one "As you are a good customer". I accepted it but then had a lot of trouble trying to get the trade in details updated. I received "Don't worry we will honour this price, if needs be I'll manually sort out the invoice when you get it". That offer was £700 less than a brand new M3, and a couple of £thousand more than I paid for it. Other people have had trade ins of that ilk, albeit it mine seemed a bit too-good-to-be-true.

I had cancelled the private sale offer I had had. The day before collection (still not paid at this point as Price was still wrong) they told me "We aren't going to honour this offer. We made a mistake and repriced your trade in based on one of the other cars on your account". Whilst that may have been the case, they had the correct VIN on the trade in data I had originally provided

"How about chucking in a tow bar?" Nope, we aren't going to do diddly squat.

I can't think of any other company that I have dealt with who, having made a mistake, didn't at lease snip off a tiny bit of an Olive branch ...

(which [price increase] they haven't on the MY tbf)

For whatever reason they started out with a GB Price for MY and stuck to it. Maybe they plan to move production to Germany, and (my guess) that will be cheaper, and they don't want a price increase followed by a drop that will annoy customers (despite my earlier point!).

In USA price for MY has been:

$49,990 January - End March 2021
$52,990 June 2021 - multiple price rises in that interval
$58,990 November 2021 - that's 10% in a year
$62,990 March 2022 - most recent price increase - 26% year-on-year!

I'll simply not buy one. I'll just drive the M3 and then go to another brand when it's time to change

Sure. But that "other brand" is on long lead time, so you can't get one unless you wait. But your (hypothetical) not buying one doesn't appear to be stopping others doing so ... when it does (production outpacing demand) they can lower the price. Others will have been "saving up". Others will have been for a ride in one and decide they want one

I'm just glad I bought when I did before prices started climbing!

Yup, you and me both. Ker-ching!

 

[2020M3SR]

Tesla have a problem, huge demand, in many countries people were flipping newly bought ones for a profit. Tesla have the excuse of higher materials prices, they also pre-empted USA EV credits.

As a result, they've upped there prices which probably keeps orders to sensible levels. At some point Tesla might lower prices, they have the room to do this. With mine, the price I ordered was higher than the current price at delivery time - so I got it for the cheaper price. If Tesla keep this policy, then you pay the lower value either way - so it seems like an opportunity to me.

100%

I'm a bit risk averse though. If the lead times were longer and you locked your price in for £200 then I guess its a worthwhile strategy

Eg, order now for next year then effectively, its £200 for a price hedge. I'll keep an eye on lead times and see if they extend a bit. My M3 is still just a pup, relatively speaking, only 2 year old. The practicality of the MY is the draw for me versus the M3, but like I say, I don't need big range.

 

[2020M3SR]

On the other hand you will probably find that your 2 year old M3 is worth close to what you paid for it new. Now is a very good time to trade it in against a MY before an almost inevitable MY price hike. At the moment the M3 LR is the same price as the MY LR in the UK, which is out of step with other markets.

I think an SR MY coming in at current SR M3 prices is wishful thinking. They are more likely to hike MY LR prices at some point and then slot in an SR close to current LR prices. But that's all speculation. At the moment the MY LR looks like good value compared to the M3 LR, so I'm taking advantage of that while I can.

I see your point that it looks good value versus a M3 LR but it looks terrible value versus a skida enyaq or an ID4. A MY SR could change that.

Not everyone wants 2 x motors and huge batteries in their EV don't forget.

 

[2020M3SR]

Yes the MY is priced at a premium compared to the M3 in other countries, I highly doubt they would introduce the Y SR at the same price of the 3 SR.

There certainly isn't a demand issue but people get confused about the way that the cars are delivered in bulk and think being able to order a car and get it delivered within 2 weeks within a very limited window of a quarter is a demand issue.

A demand issue is when you drive past a legacy dealership and they have more new cars available in 1 dealership than Tesla has new cars available in the whole country.

Why is the UK the only country where they haven't increased the MY price? Lower than expected demand is the only logical reason but I'm open to listen to the alternative reason.

I've checked out Skoda, VW, Volvo lately. You really think they've got loads of cars sitting about? Used car prices are high because its so hard to get new ones. That's for all manufacturers

Some of you guys on here seem to live in sine sort of Tesla bubble

 

[WannabeOwner]

Why is the UK the only country where they haven't increased the MY price?

I'd like to think they got it right (e.g. in anticipation of Germany providing for UK market and that reducing [transport] cost, and thus being able to maintain that RRP longer term - and maybe take a hit in short term).

But so much has happened, in terms of part supply and so on, that it seems odd that they haven't increased MY price in UK - its gone up elsewhere, and M3 has gone up here.

So "dunno".

But I doubt it is low demand ... there used to be threads / Google Spreadsheets, for Order RN numbers to try to gauge how quickly the UK order book was filling up - maybe they still exist (I don't follow those threads). Tesla increases worldwide production steadily over time. UK seems to have a strong EV seller's market. Why would MY not be popular here? I would have thought Brits would far prefer a hatchback to a boot. I haven't owned a boot-car for several decades, but we bought an M3 - and actually had no issue with the boot, although we did have an old people carrier for rash eBay purchase collection ... but M3 now swapped for MY and our final fallback-fossil has gone.

Some of you guys on here seem to live in sine sort of Tesla bubble

Sure, but "fans" and "living in bubble" not quite the same. I see loads of Teslas when I go out. Beggars belief to me that so many people are spending £50K on a car, and it seems that plenty are stretching finance to do that. I'm happy for the planet that they are doing that ... although in that regard I don't care which EV they buy, but I'm happy for Tesla if it does well - without Tesla the Establish Auto would still be talking along the lines of "Clean diesel is what you need" and we know where that got us.

For anyone only needing to go to the shops any EV will do as a city-car. If they are going further afield what will they choose? For me I wouldn't consider owning anything other than a Tesla at this time. 3rd party charging is just awful. Seems to be a lot of evidence that high on the list for wannabe EV owners is range-anxiety. Whether that will actually be real for that person is debateable (e.g. they are still in the mindset of "When I stop I need to fil it up, and I want that to be quick" rather than "When I stop I just need to add enough to get to my destination" - which is often just a splash-and-dash).

So I think those, probably unfounded, range concerns are contributing to Tesla (i.e. Supercharger) success over rivals. Also Tesla has been around a while, so some assumption of "Technology solved" or at least more experience / knowhow than any just-arrived EV competitors. Plenty of people have been in a Tesla or even just "seen one" - in fact maybe their "been in / seen one" experience spans 5 years - whereas for anything else it will be less so. That might be swaying them. But anyone buying a Tesla is stumping up extra money for the profit margin, which has grown to be a big big chunk, relatively to competitors.

Someone in my village asked me about EV a year ago and we had a chat. I can't imagine he's got much money (I know, huge sweeping assumption, but I know where he lives, he is long since retired, and I know what sort of mileage he does, mostly local). But he was adamant "I'm buying a Tesla once the hatchback is available". Sample-size of one, but ...

 

[Adopado]

Someone in my village asked me about EV a year ago and we had a chat. I can't imagine he's got much money (I know, huge sweeping assumption, but I know where he lives, he is long since retired, and I know what sort of mileage he does, mostly local). But he was adamant "I'm buying a Tesla once the hatchback is available". Sample-size of one, but ...

"That ship called Dignity" ... Deacon Blue told his story in 1987 ... maybe he'll name his Tesla "Dignity".

 

[Peteski]

I see your point that it looks good value versus a M3 LR but it looks terrible value versus a skida enyaq or an ID4. A MY SR could change that.

Not everyone wants 2 x motors and huge batteries in their EV don't forget.

The MY LR is not competing directly against a Skoda or ID4 so comparing them on price is pointless. It's like saying a Golf R is terrible value against a lesser powered Golf variant. They are just different propositions and unfortunately for you there isn't currently a MY variant for your personal needs.

 

[Peteski]

Why is the UK the only country where they haven't increased the MY price? Lower than expected demand is the only logical reason but I'm open to listen to the alternative reason.

I've checked out Skoda, VW, Volvo lately. You really think they've got loads of cars sitting about? Used car prices are high because its so hard to get new ones. That's for all manufacturers

Some of you guys on here seem to live in sine sort of Tesla bubble

You are the one who is clinging onto the notion that demand for the MY LR is low and therefore the MY SR you really want should be coming along very soon. I couldn't care less either way, so I can look at it totally impartially and I really don't believe there is any reason to think that there must be a lack of demand for the MY LR at this point.

UK pricing of M3 LR vs MY LR is a bit strange as it stands, but they probably cost the same to build out of the Chinese factory and maybe they are planning to build less M3s and more MYs in the short term.