barjohn
Member
I owned an S, now own a 3 and own Tesla stock so I am not unbiased. However, when I was a manager, I was more like Elon than the traditional manager. When our entire executive team went to do an executive training at Notre Dame one summer and they tested us on their innovation scale, they had us stand in a semi circle spaced according to where we scored. I was at the tail end with a huge gap between me and the next closest person. I hold some patents and created some products that everyone said would be impossible because everyone that had tried before me had failed with huge financial consequences. I had to fight every inch of the way and it took way longer than it should have because of those battles so I can fully appreciate where Elon is coming from. Every company hates innovators because they disrupt the status quo and make demands people don't like to meet. Yet, companies that fail to innovate soon go out of business. It is one of those dichotomies of life.
Today I had lunch with a former employee that was also a high level manager and is recently retired. I was recruiting him for a consulting job I have been working on. He does not own an EV and his only encounter with a Tesla was when I took him for a very short ride in My S. Today I took him for a longer ride in my 3, engaged AP in freeway and stop and go driving and he was blown away (mind you we both have worked highly technical jobs and in R&D). When the ride was over he was cursing me for making him want to buy a Tesla, something he had not even considered before and talking about how this was clearly the future of the auto industry.
My point is that with all of its flaws, Tesla builds a damn fine and futuristic car and its technology is a long way ahead of anyone else. It is going to take quite a while before the rest of the auto industry can catch up. having your own battery factory, motor and electronics design and assembly, plus your own charging network takes a lot of capex and a lot of time. Every traditional ICE manufacturer will take a long time, if ever, to get to the same point where Tesla is today. Tesla will catchup to where they are on making bodies much more quickly. Why do I think they may not get there? Because I have seen the same issue repeated in the computer industry multiple times over the last 50 years. Where is Burroughs, Control Data, Univac, etc. today? Where is Digital Equipment (DEC), Data General, HP, etc.? When your profits are based on a product line and the majority of the company is relying on that product line, no one want to bring out a new product that will cannibalize their cash cow because it technically changes everything and may sell for less or not initially make the profit to pay the sales commissions everyone expects to make. Look at Ford getting out of the car business to focus on SUVs and trucks. Talk about stupid thinking and a great opportunity for Tesla. The model Y could kill for small SUV business, especially if gas prices rise significantly. High gas prices will also have a big impact on the truck business. Now imagine Tesla producing a pickup truck with the crazy performance that electric motors would give it and the interesting looks they could give it plus make it off road capable and they could kill the truck business. Every Texan I know (I recently left living in Galveston) would be clamoring to get one.
The bottom line is Elon is a little eccentric sort of like Steve Jobs was at Apple but that is what it takes to meet the challenges imposed by technology that changes so rapidly. The thing Elon needs, and I suspect he manages to find, are executives that can execute on his vision and that are better managers than he is. That is one thing I saw for myself (I tended to hire very bright and capable people that could execute my vision better than I could). I think Jobs did the same thing and I think that is what Elon is striving for. In the process he will have some churn because every bright person is not capable of doing that or willing to buy into your vision. Finding the right ones takes time, especially during the startup when things are chaotic. I believe he will succeed so I am willing to roll the dice.
Securities analysts are by nature conservative and not visionaries or risk takers or they wouldn't be in those jobs. My son-in-law is one and I can see that he is ultra conservative with money and unwilling to take much risk, yet he is advising others on how to invest. He is evaluated on not losing money for his clients so one way to do that is to take very little risk. They don't evaluate vision or really understand what it takes to create a vision into reality. That is why throwing darts at a wall with stocks often produces superior results compared to the analysts. To me a good company is highly innovative and can execute on its vision. Tesla is very close to being there and I think that because they are so persistent they will get there. There is only one profession that consistently performs worse than stock analysts and yet is highly lauded and mange to hold their jobs while being wrong most of the time and that is economists.
Today I had lunch with a former employee that was also a high level manager and is recently retired. I was recruiting him for a consulting job I have been working on. He does not own an EV and his only encounter with a Tesla was when I took him for a very short ride in My S. Today I took him for a longer ride in my 3, engaged AP in freeway and stop and go driving and he was blown away (mind you we both have worked highly technical jobs and in R&D). When the ride was over he was cursing me for making him want to buy a Tesla, something he had not even considered before and talking about how this was clearly the future of the auto industry.
My point is that with all of its flaws, Tesla builds a damn fine and futuristic car and its technology is a long way ahead of anyone else. It is going to take quite a while before the rest of the auto industry can catch up. having your own battery factory, motor and electronics design and assembly, plus your own charging network takes a lot of capex and a lot of time. Every traditional ICE manufacturer will take a long time, if ever, to get to the same point where Tesla is today. Tesla will catchup to where they are on making bodies much more quickly. Why do I think they may not get there? Because I have seen the same issue repeated in the computer industry multiple times over the last 50 years. Where is Burroughs, Control Data, Univac, etc. today? Where is Digital Equipment (DEC), Data General, HP, etc.? When your profits are based on a product line and the majority of the company is relying on that product line, no one want to bring out a new product that will cannibalize their cash cow because it technically changes everything and may sell for less or not initially make the profit to pay the sales commissions everyone expects to make. Look at Ford getting out of the car business to focus on SUVs and trucks. Talk about stupid thinking and a great opportunity for Tesla. The model Y could kill for small SUV business, especially if gas prices rise significantly. High gas prices will also have a big impact on the truck business. Now imagine Tesla producing a pickup truck with the crazy performance that electric motors would give it and the interesting looks they could give it plus make it off road capable and they could kill the truck business. Every Texan I know (I recently left living in Galveston) would be clamoring to get one.
The bottom line is Elon is a little eccentric sort of like Steve Jobs was at Apple but that is what it takes to meet the challenges imposed by technology that changes so rapidly. The thing Elon needs, and I suspect he manages to find, are executives that can execute on his vision and that are better managers than he is. That is one thing I saw for myself (I tended to hire very bright and capable people that could execute my vision better than I could). I think Jobs did the same thing and I think that is what Elon is striving for. In the process he will have some churn because every bright person is not capable of doing that or willing to buy into your vision. Finding the right ones takes time, especially during the startup when things are chaotic. I believe he will succeed so I am willing to roll the dice.
Securities analysts are by nature conservative and not visionaries or risk takers or they wouldn't be in those jobs. My son-in-law is one and I can see that he is ultra conservative with money and unwilling to take much risk, yet he is advising others on how to invest. He is evaluated on not losing money for his clients so one way to do that is to take very little risk. They don't evaluate vision or really understand what it takes to create a vision into reality. That is why throwing darts at a wall with stocks often produces superior results compared to the analysts. To me a good company is highly innovative and can execute on its vision. Tesla is very close to being there and I think that because they are so persistent they will get there. There is only one profession that consistently performs worse than stock analysts and yet is highly lauded and mange to hold their jobs while being wrong most of the time and that is economists.
