silliness
silliness. If Tesla could produce twice as many SR+s, don't you agree they'd make a profit?
Hope this helps. The fundamental issue is what it's always been: being able to mass produce enough.
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
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silliness. If Tesla could produce twice as many SR+s, don't you agree they'd make a profit?
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Not sure this is correct. They put FSD in deferred revenue and a part of autopilot too - since the features for those items are not delivered. In Q1 deferred revenue was 317M, out of which 140M is from ZEV sales.
Infact, when they roll out enhanced summon and later in the year/next year City NOA, they can recognize all the revenue they have deferred for FSD/EAP.
That's unexpected. I didn't expect s+x margin to be lower than 3. If so, it is because of all the discounting. Remember they had difficulty selling S (esp.) in Q1. Same will repeat in Q2 for pre-Raven inventory. Not so for refreshed S/X that is delivered in May/June. So, we should expect the margin to be somewhat higher in Q2. But as you say, the EV credits may not be that much in Q2. They might recognize part of EV credits (and sell, get more credits) in Q2 to make up the margin.
Q3 onwards the margin on s+x should be back to normal. They won't be discounting refreshed s+x with what looks like healthy order book anytime soon.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Q3/Q4 - gaap profit because of high ASP & Margin. Yes, S/X sales were very high too (they were selling off inventory). But that was because of pull forward due to credit cliff. High profits in Q3/Q4 directly resulted in losses in Q1
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Non-ZEV historically was mostly US GHG credits. I've modeled non-ZEV as ~2k per US delivery. US deliveries were ~50% of global, so that matches your 1k per global delivery. The "uplift" last year happened because the US/ROW split changed dramatically as they exclusively shipped Model 3 to US and Canada. FWIW, it also seems non-ZEV dropped slightly to about 1800 per US delivery late in the year.
The FCA deal changes the math as Tesla now gets credit revenue in Europe. They may also get more per car in the US. How much they won't say, but it seems to be significant. Q1's 200m on deliveries of 30k US and 23k Europe imply something like 3k/car US and 4.5k/car Europe. I suspect the 200m includes some upfront revenue recognition, though. I'd probably assume 2.5k/car in US and Europe going forward, but I'll be combing through the next 10-Q for clues.
How does 95,200 make your estimates look?
Tesla Q2 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries | Tesla, Inc.
Tesla Q2 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries | Tesla, Inc.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
@Fact Checking @Doggydogworld
Ok, now that we have P&D, I'm working on cash flow.
Inventory - drops by 8k ! 5k of that is Model 3 and 3k s+x. So, $250M less in inventory.
Payables - Last 3 quarters it has been about ~81% of production COGS. With about 10k more production, this goes up by ~200M.
Receivables - This is last 2/4 days of sales, depending on whether the last day is a weekend or not. Q1 ending, like Q2 ending was on Sunday. Even though total deliveries were much higher in Q2 than Q1, I think the last 3/4 days of sales was probably not very different in Q2 compared to Q1. So, I'm guessing same level of receivables in Q2.
So, just these 3 give a positive "Net cash used in operating activities" of ~450M in Q2 for a total of $1.1B. I'll post the sheet after cleaning up.
Ok, now that we have P&D, I'm working on cash flow.
Inventory - drops by 8k ! 5k of that is Model 3 and 3k s+x. So, $250M less in inventory.
Payables - Last 3 quarters it has been about ~81% of production COGS. With about 10k more production, this goes up by ~200M.
Receivables - This is last 2/4 days of sales, depending on whether the last day is a weekend or not. Q1 ending, like Q2 ending was on Sunday. Even though total deliveries were much higher in Q2 than Q1, I think the last 3/4 days of sales was probably not very different in Q2 compared to Q1. So, I'm guessing same level of receivables in Q2.
So, just these 3 give a positive "Net cash used in operating activities" of ~450M in Q2 for a total of $1.1B. I'll post the sheet after cleaning up.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
More than 8k: 8,650 most likely once the final delivery paperwork is in. Especially with a lot of overseas deliveries this could be a higher delta than the usual ~500 units. (~0.5% of deliveries), so the inventory reduction could be as much as 8,750 as well.
Bodes well for cash flow.
I disagree, note how European deliveries peaked in the final two weeks, not just the final week. Here's the Norway deliveries for example:
Per day delivery levels at the end of June were nowhere near Q1 in Norway and the Netherlands.
I think much of the Q1 receivables increase was from the tail-loaded European deliveries.
i didn't keep up on this news closely, so i will have to defer to @EinSV 's presentation . i thought the news i saw valued it around a few hundred million. i saw @Doggydogworld post that he thinks the new higher level will continue. i don't know enough about it to conclude that. i know that when i see a number jump completely out of line vs. the last 12 quarters, i assume that was a one time change until it is proven otherwise.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Yes, if we can get an estimate for comparative deliveries on last 4 days, I think we can estimate this.
How is this anecdotally in US ? I remember last days were quite hectic in US last time.
in the current condition, i don't agree. all my cost estimates put the sr+ in a range of probably not gaap profitable and at best marginally cash profitable. the steep decline in adjusted model 3 margins from q4 to q1 suggest to me mix shift to lower units is a problem. and the constant re-jiggering of pricing around low end vehicles indicates some issue on the bottom end of the menu as well.
what you, i, and probably most of us hope is that they will get the required manufacturing efficiencies to be able to produce those low end menu options at a reasonable profit. i'd like to see some numbers trending in the right direction before i again convince myself it can happen.
here's an update adjusted for the deliveries report.
| … |
| s deliveries |
| x deliveries |
| s+x deliveries |
| 3 deliveries |
| 3 production |
| lease 3s % veh |
| lease s/x % veh |
| avg price s+x |
| avg price model 3 |
| non-zev credits per delivery |
| revenue |
| auto sales ex 3 |
| auto sales mod 3 |
| auto leasing |
| 1 time revenue |
| zev credits |
| total auto |
| energy storage |
| solarcity |
| maxwell/grohmann |
| services/other |
| total revenue |
| cost of revenue |
| auto sales ex 3 |
| auto sales mod 3 |
| auto leasing |
| 1 time cogs |
| total auto |
| energy storage |
| solarcity |
| maxwell/grohmann |
| services & other |
| total cost of rev |
| gross profit |
| auto ex 3 gm |
| auto gaap gm |
| auto lease gm |
| auto gaap ex 3 gm |
| auto-zev ex 3 gm |
| model 3 gm |
| auto-zev incl 3 gm |
| storage gm |
| scty gm |
| maxwell/grohmann |
| services gm |
| opex |
| tesla r&d |
| tesla sg&a |
| 1 time costs |
| solarcity r&d |
| solarcity sg&a |
| total opex |
| op income |
| interest inc |
| interest exp |
| scty interest |
| other income exp |
| 1time scty gain |
| pretax income |
| income tax |
| net income |
| non-cont int. |
| net inc to common |
| basic shares |
| diluted shares |
| diluted gaap eps |
| gaap net income |
| + stock based comp |
| + one time scty |
| non-gaap net income |
| non-gaap diluted eps |
Doggydogworld
Active Member
I get 450m inventory reduction. Of course inventory is financed, so it boosts OCF but has only a small effect on cash, equivs.
I think AR might be a tad higher, but not enough to matter.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Oh, you are right. My Inv reduction comes to ~568M.
I'm guessing a tad lower since Q2 last 4 days wasn't as mad as Q1 last 4 days. I'll try to get some EU numbers to verify.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Are you sure that's true? Tesla has asset backed credit lines, which are backed by inventory cars on a rough CoGs basis and a haircut (?) - but that only counts as cash equivalents if they draw on them, and there's a limit to these credit lines.
Are you sure all or even most of Tesla's inventory is counted as cash equivalents?
As far as points 2 & 3, Tesla/Elon have consistently, and even fairly recently (IIRC), guided to $42k ASP and 25% GM on Model 3. This seems at odds with your assertion that points 2 (demand for high end was low) & 3 (take rate for options was low) were unexpected. The $42k ASP guidance would indicate these were expected outcomes.
If anything, I would guess that ASP will exceed $42k for the foreseeable future.
Ding ding ding, my fear here was proven correct. Note that Model 3 production only averaged
As I expected, S/X deliveries are solid enough, though I will bet that it is a lot more X than S. Production was so low I suspect they may have been production limited again.
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NinjaVece
Member
China, apparently. So not until 2020. That is where and when. The multi year delay in reaching 10k annoys me obviously, but I should have expected it from Tesla...
Agreed.
It is clear that COGS on Model 3 did not come down as fast as Tesla hoped, This does not concern me because cost reduction is something they are actually genuinely good at; they have a history of it and we know of specific efficiencies being implemented now; by 2020 I figure COGS will be fine.
OK, so luvb2b worries that the SR+ has no gross margin. I think that is extremely implausible, though based on Tesla's behavior, the SR might well have had no gross margin. I am assuming $5k marginal profit per SR+, and I think that lower assumptions are not plausible. That is 12.5%. An extra 50k SR+ no option cars is an extra 250M profit, very roughly, by this assumption. So volume is essential.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
I think the story is - they are still production constrained on 3. But the production rate is going up.
On S/X they basically sold the inventory. I'd expect of the 17k deliveries 50% or even more to be inventory S/X. Q3 S/X sales, ASP and margin should be much better. X may not be that much more than S, because they sold what they had. Going forward refreshed sales would heavily favor X.
