graphilwar
Member
Balance is 1462m as of 6/30/20. The 741m was 12/31/19. The China Loan Agreements include a RMB 9b Fixed Asset Facility, RMB 6.75b of Working Capital Facilities and a RMB 5b facility that finances vehicles in transit to China. They don't really have vehicles in transit to China at EOQ, so that last facility's balance should be near zero.
They don't disclose the split between Fixed Asset and Working Capital borrowing. China was 1/3 of Q2 deliveries and 1/4 of revenue, I'd guess it has 1b+ of the 4b inventory plus a little AR, etc. So maybe they have 800m drawn on the Working Capital facility and 650m against the factory? That 650m would include both Phase I and progress payments on the new construction.
Thanks for the help! So let’s say the “super crazy” over estimate for the cost to build Giga Shanghai to the current level of production is 1.5B. Mathematically, its gotta be less than that because as you mentioned, it appears the loans are funding working capital needs as well as construction, and also they already started building the Model Y phase II portion, but whatever, let’s just say 1.5B.
So where I was pondering was that in Q2 2020, Tesla’s China revenues were $1.5B. Now if let’s say, the Model 3 margins there are roughly the same as Fremont Model 3 margins, let’s say 20%(?) to be conservative, that’s $300M per quarter in gross margins, or 1.2B annualized in gross margin contribution China Model 3. That’s like...1.2B / 1.5B = an 80% return on the invested capital. And I think I’m being conservative and sandbagging these numbers so I’m kind of tantalized by what I’m seeing here.
Now if your guess is correct about the capex being 650M, and I just do the same math, that’s 1.2B in gross margin contribution over 650M, that’s like 200% returns on that capex. Which seems even more insane.
If I’m drinking the spike Kool-Aid here, please someone slap me in the face and show me the error in my ways. Am I wrong in being amazed by this?
The crazy thing is that I think they’re going to plan to grow Model 3 lines, so it’s not yet at full scale for that product. Also Model Y at scale in China is going to be even more fantastic, given localization, the extent of parts sharing with the Model 3, and its higher price point.
Musk also said that the real manufacturing revolution is in the Berlin Gigafactory...