Waiting4M3
Active Member
Curious why you think MS/X ASP in Q3/Q4 would be lower than Q1/Q2. I suspect that the tax incentive phase-out would give MS/X ASP a similar boost as to M3 in Q3/Q4.
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
- Start date
No, clearly he doesn't think that, since he refers to Q3/Q4, when the full tax incentive is (presumed to be) still in force. What he means, I believe, is that people will take the $7.5k and apply it to buying more accessories.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
mershaw2001
I'm short the short sellers
ValueAnalyst
Closed
@luvb2b maybe I don't read this right, does your model account for the layoffs that happened this quarter?
Because of more sales out of inventory. It's been a repeating pattern as far as I can see. Quarters in which inventory is built up see slighly higher ASP. Quarters when they sell down inventory see lower ASP (makes sense really). With production fixed at 25k and the first half of the quarter lower than 25k sales, logically inventory is being built up. Tesla will right this balance in Q3 and Q4 with sales numbers significantly above 25k, partially by having more generous out of inventory sales. That's the mechanism that I think will be in play this year.
Waiting4M3
Active Member
Good point, the counter point is that I don't see a lot of inventory for them to sell. AFAIK Tesla sold something like 6k cars from inventory in Q4'17 to help with the cash situation. In Q1'18 I see that they replenished 1388 into inventory (24728 produced + 2520 transit overhang - 4060 transit - 21800 delivery). If Q2 is similar, they have not come close to replenishing the inventories that they sold off in Q4'17. I just don't see them having a lot of inventory to sell in 2H'18.
They went into this year with a potential inventory overhang of 6768 Model S/X units (difference between historically reported total running production and delivery minus transit). So 8000 at the end of the quarter. I am wagering that they'll add more to the inventory this quarter as well. That should potentially put them well over 10k Model S/X in inventory. Now some of those cars may have been used for testing purposes and what not. And they're likely not willing to sell below a critical amount of cars needed for loaner duty and so on. Still, I think there will be enough inventory to go around.
My Q2 2018 Estimates:
Predicting the 200K is really difficult because it turned into a close call. Initially, it looked like they would exceed 200K by 15K. However, Tesla dramatically lowered the deliveries in June. If you look at the table here, it shows 3472 US deliveries for June. In addition, insideEVs calculation is much closer to 200K than mine and they are known to over-estimate the number by 2-3%. I could be 96% accurate and still wrong. They might have managed to postpone 200K to Q3. It's a close call.
The actual numbers for the first 5 items on the list will be released by Tesla in a few days. I will measure the accuracy in percentage. I don't think Tesla will release the Model 3 US and Canada delivery numbers but I added those just in case they decided to release them.
- 27,443 Model 3 production in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 95%)
- 23,756 Model S+X production in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 92%)
- 15,814 Model 3 deliveries in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)
- 11,269 Model S deliveries in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)
- 9,674 Model X deliveries in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)
- 14,512 Model 3 deliveries in the US in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)
- 1,302 Model 3 deliveries in Canada in Q2 2018 (Expected accuracy: 85%)
- 205,121 US sales at the end of Q2 2018. (Expected accuracy: 96%)
Predicting the 200K is really difficult because it turned into a close call. Initially, it looked like they would exceed 200K by 15K. However, Tesla dramatically lowered the deliveries in June. If you look at the table here, it shows 3472 US deliveries for June. In addition, insideEVs calculation is much closer to 200K than mine and they are known to over-estimate the number by 2-3%. I could be 96% accurate and still wrong. They might have managed to postpone 200K to Q3. It's a close call.
The actual numbers for the first 5 items on the list will be released by Tesla in a few days. I will measure the accuracy in percentage. I don't think Tesla will release the Model 3 US and Canada delivery numbers but I added those just in case they decided to release them.
I created the following spreadsheet to compare different estimates by forum members. I have read somewhere that the average estimate of a community is usually pretty accurate. About 1h 40min left until the survey closes for this quarter:
Spreadsheet: Q2 2018 Tesla production and delivery estimates
Google form: Click here to add your estimate by the end of today (30 June), Pacific Time
Spreadsheet: Q2 2018 Tesla production and delivery estimates
Google form: Click here to add your estimate by the end of today (30 June), Pacific Time
It's quite shocking how low your estimate for Model 3 deliveries this quarter is and yet all the numbers together still tally up to 205k reached this quarter. Not blaming you, as you said, you have to go by what the data shows. The shock is really from the data. Personally I am still hoping that deliveries will be better on the M3 for two reasons that are at least possible 1) Severe underreporting from Canada. This would introduce a bias in the numbers. Possibly adds a few thousand deliveries 2) gaming the 200k rule by massively delivering this saturday, which would count the cars Q2 for accounting purposes but would only count them as titled in Q3 for the 200k fed credit threshold. Possibly another 1000 cars could be tricked this way.
I have never been more curious for the 10-K for quarterly deliveries release.
I have never been more curious for the 10-K for quarterly deliveries release.
Ulmo
Active Member
Yes, for example VERY SHORT-LIVED THREAD: Your best #s for 3Q16 Delivery Numbers.
My estimate for Model 3 produced going purely by one VIN sighting and assuming all sequencially produced with gaps totaling only 300-400 to that VIN is 37,149, so average 33,370 & median 33,931.
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I totally agree with this, no way would i would have thought deliveries of 15k 3's AND going over on the 200k mark.
So, per Electrek, the official numbers:
Produced 28578 Model 3, Delivered 18,440 Model 3. 11166 in transit
Net reservations for Model 3 end of quarter -- 420,000.
Produced 24761 Model S/X combined, Delivered 10,930 Model S, Delivered 11,370 Model X. 3892 in transit.
Tesla releases official production numbers: 53,339 vehicles including 28,578 Model 3’s in Q2, 6,000 per week next month
Now let the speculation begin on the Canada/US split of Model 3. I'm pretty sure the Canadian numbers are really high.
Produced 28578 Model 3, Delivered 18,440 Model 3. 11166 in transit
Net reservations for Model 3 end of quarter -- 420,000.
Produced 24761 Model S/X combined, Delivered 10,930 Model S, Delivered 11,370 Model X. 3892 in transit.
Tesla releases official production numbers: 53,339 vehicles including 28,578 Model 3’s in Q2, 6,000 per week next month
Now let the speculation begin on the Canada/US split of Model 3. I'm pretty sure the Canadian numbers are really high.
