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Near-future quarterly financial projections

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Copying @st_lopes since he is much more knowledgeable about taxes than I am.

Computing Income Taxes properly is virtually impossible; as you can see, the effective tax rate has jumped around from Qtr to Qtr.
Here are the effective rates from prior quarters:

Q1 2020 - 2.9%
Q2 2020 - 14.0%
Q3 2020 - 33.5%
Q4 2020 - 21.9%
Q1 2021 - 12.9%
Q2 2021 - I am using 20% (the average of the past 4 qtrs)

With Net Operating Losses in the US and the State of California, I believe that the effective US+State tax rate is about 4-5% (due to sales made in states outside of CA and Tesla having a presence in multiple states).
I would guess that profits outside of the US are taxed in the 25%-30% range. The higher percentage of sales in the US vs outside the US, the lower the overall tax expense. My hunch is that the rate should be about 15% to 18% in Q2 but I went with 20% to be conservative.

Their effective tax rate is dictated by their global revenue mix and the extent and nature of their physical presence in each jurisdiction. The note disclosures don't appear to specifically call out any one time adjustments and don't seem to reflect the release of any kind of valuation allowance (though they do note that subject to on-going IRS audits that they may recognize some tax benefits in the next 12 months).

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The 10-Q makes no reference to the full deferred tax asset (usually only mentioned in the 10-K) or valuation allowance, so it does not appear that the effective tax rate was driven by a release of any of those assets/allowances.

So, we do know the following:
  1. Sales in China are at 15% tax rates (it may actually be lower, with an RD shop in Shanghai, depending on their approach to IP residency, they may actually drive tax losses in some years);
  2. Sales in EU (reg credits, but will start to see more tax basis with Berlin presence) likely in the 20-25% range; this may start to drop in future years with an RD shop in Berlin, again all depending on their IP residency strategies);
  3. Sales in US mostly in the 3-5% (state taxes) until they have fully consumed their prior year losses and stock based compensation tax benefits, this is also the jurisdiction that will benefit from the realization of their deferred tax assets; so we are unlikely to see a high (20-28%) US Tax rate for a few years;
Overall, even if they aim for a very aggressive tax minimized structure, they will likely float around 13-15% global effective tax rate as their operations in various jurisdictions mature. In the near term, I think a 15-20% is likely. More and more countries are aligning in not allowing companies to abuse residency rules and pay 0-5% tax rates in perpetuity (thanks Ireland, Luxemburg, and Isle of Man).
 
Thanks for the invaluable feedback!

Am working on a crude estimate for 2021 earnings. Am surprised how much a difference the model S deliveries will have in my model (I am very conservative on 3/Y deliveries below, so view this as a non-bullish estimate.)

feel free to point out any obvious errors. (to get ahead of any comments - I have pencilled in an optimistic turnaround of energy profitability in current Q2 quarter)

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Thanks for the invaluable feedback!

Am working on a crude estimate for 2021 earnings. Am surprised how much a difference the model S deliveries will have in my model (I am very conservative on 3/Y deliveries below, so view this as a non-bullish estimate.)

feel free to point out any obvious errors. (to get ahead of any comments - I have pencilled in an optimistic turnaround of energy profitability in current Q2 quarter)

View attachment 659568

Whats your delivery & margin assumption ?

I'd increase the Service for sure - but the tax not so much.
 
Thanks for the invaluable feedback!

Am working on a crude estimate for 2021 earnings. Am surprised how much a difference the model S deliveries will have in my model (I am very conservative on 3/Y deliveries below, so view this as a non-bullish estimate.)

feel free to point out any obvious errors. (to get ahead of any comments - I have pencilled in an optimistic turnaround of energy profitability in current Q2 quarter)

View attachment 659568

Thanks for sharing your outlook for 2021. All your numbers look to be within the range of possibilities.
The one area that I could challenge is the Services & Other Revenues and Costs.
Zach's comments during the earnings call was:
"On services and other margins, these have recovered and are trending toward profitability, aided by strength in the used car business, operational improvements in service and additional service revenue opportunities that help absorb fixed overhead"

I believe the Q1 $893m Revenue for Services and Other is the floor for this year. I would expect revenues for this category to be $900m or higher in each of the remaining quarters for 2021. In regard to margins, you have gross margin losses for Services & Other. Considering Zach said they were "trending toward profitability, I would show gross profit by Q4 even it only 1% margin.

Other than that, I like your forecast.
 
Thanks for sharing your outlook for 2021. All your numbers look to be within the range of possibilities.
The one area that I could challenge is the Services & Other Revenues and Costs.
Zach's comments during the earnings call was:
"On services and other margins, these have recovered and are trending toward profitability, aided by strength in the used car business, operational improvements in service and additional service revenue opportunities that help absorb fixed overhead"

I believe the Q1 $893m Revenue for Services and Other is the floor for this year. I would expect revenues for this category to be $900m or higher in each of the remaining quarters for 2021. In regard to margins, you have gross margin losses for Services & Other. Considering Zach said they were "trending toward profitability, I would show gross profit by Q4 even it only 1% margin.

Other than that, I like your forecast.
Thanks for the feedback - will definitely raise the Services Revenue
 
Zach's comments during the earnings call was:
"On services and other margins, these have recovered and are trending toward profitability, aided by strength in the used car business, operational improvements in service and additional service revenue opportunities that help absorb fixed overhead"
Not the first time Zach/Deepak said this. There are some operating inefficiencies they can fix, as highlighted by people with car biz experience. But Services and Other is also a bit of a dumping ground for costs they don't want to hit Auto COGS. At some point improving Auto gross margins probably allow them to shift those costs back where they belong. That'll make Service look better but have no impact overall.

In other news, Stellantis CEO says they can hit their EU 95g quota this year without Tesla's help. They are "in discussions with Tesla about the financial implications of the decision to stop the pooling agreement." Leaks about the original agreement said it was ~2b for 2019-21 with a heavy 2020 concentration. I still say a big chunk of Q1's 518m was a one-time China NEV credit sale to VW. Of course Tesla keeps us in the dark, so we can only guess.
 
In other news, Stellantis CEO says they can hit their EU 95g quota this year without Tesla's help. They are "in discussions with Tesla about the financial implications of the decision to stop the pooling agreement."
As quoted by Reuters, Carlos Tavares's language left room for maneuver: "as early as this year", "will be in a position to achieve", etc — aspirational, while trying to sound positive and conclusive. So I think it's premature to count STLA out of the EU STLA-Honda-TSLA pool. STLA may exit, and then again they may find that they still need TSLA.

Of course those quotes have been translated, and might sound stronger or weaker before translation. I'm not fluent in French, but this seems to be the original interview.

 
As quoted by Reuters, Carlos Tavares's language left room for maneuver: "as early as this year", "will be in a position to achieve", etc — aspirational, while trying to sound positive and conclusive. So I think it's premature to count STLA out of the EU STLA-Honda-TSLA pool. STLA may exit, and then again they may find that they still need TSLA.

Of course those quotes have been translated, and might sound stronger or weaker before translation. I'm not fluent in French, but this seems to be the original interview.

I agree - remember when the OEMs told us that their EVs were coming a few years ago?
As of February, both PSA and FCA are short of target; thus they will require a significant change in their product mix going forward this year to achieve targets. I'm skeptical.

I think Tavares has picked up Elon's lingo......"as early as this year, maybe . . . . . 2022 definitely"

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I agree - remember when the OEMs told us that their EVs were coming a few years ago?
As of February, both PSA and FCA are short of target; thus they will require a significant change in their product mix going forward this year to achieve targets. I'm skeptical.

I think Tavares has picked up Elon's lingo......"as early as this year, maybe . . . . . 2022 definitely"

View attachment 659739

The Reuters article had somewhat stronger language from the spokesperson: "Stellantis will be in a position to achieve CO2 targets in Europe for 2021 without open passenger car pooling arrangements with other automakers,"

PSA isn't meaningfully above target. EU carmakers heavily backload EV sales for model year and other reasons. These ICCT charts were showing almost everyone in dire trouble until the last couple months of 2020. Also note PSA is about 70% of Stellantis, so on a blended basis Stella already beats the "average" line, with only a small Jan/Feb Tesla contribution.

FCA was very poorly positioned thanks to Sergio "Don't Buy Our EVs" Marchionne, and they paid dearly for it. I don't see anyone repeating that mistake. Life gets a lot easier for all legacy carmakers after this year, too. The next big step doesn't come until 2026, and is still TBD.
 
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Looks like STLA confirmed the EU pool story today. However "is ending" doesn't make the time horizon as clear as I'd like.


[...] Chief Financial Officer Richard Palmer said that Stellantis is ending its deal to buy European emissions credits from Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), as it now expects to sell enough zero-emission vehicles to meet regulatory standards on its own. The move will save the company about 300 million euros ($360 million) per year, roughly two-thirds of which would have gone to Tesla, Palmer said.​
[...] Stellantis said that it will present more details around its electric-vehicle plans at an "Electrification Day" on July 8, and it will report its full first-half financial results on Aug. 3.​
 
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Wasn't the original pooling agreements only for two or three years and are supposed to end after Q4 2021? That's how it was described when we first heard of them. This would mean there would be new negotiations and Tesla, and everyone else of course, would be free to form new pools. Or has there been some less published extension?

Either way I don't think we will se the credits for 2021 go down much.
 
Expanded my crude & conservative Earnings estimates to 2022 and included my vehicle estimates.

over $10 GAAP EPS in 2022.

Only displaying GAAP net income, and I don't have a handle on vehicle lease numbers so have just rolled that into automotive total (ditto regulatory credits).

some assumptions:

- Model 3 capacity maxes out at 125k per quarter between Fremont & Shanghai (500k annual total)
- less than 10k of deliveries from Austin/Berlin in 2021 (closer to zero assumed), volume deliveries in Q122, with aggressive ramp.
- ASPs hold up due to introduction of US tax credit
- CT & Roadster start prodcution around mid-2022, Semi in Q122, but slow ramp.
- No big jumps in growth from Energy & Services, but both become increasingly profitable.

Please feel free to disagree and point out where you differ substantially with my figures/assumptions.
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Expanded my crude & conservative Earnings estimates to 2022 and included my vehicle estimates.

over $10 GAAP EPS in 2022.

Only displaying GAAP net income, and I don't have a handle on vehicle lease numbers so have just rolled that into automotive total (ditto regulatory credits).

some assumptions:

- Model 3 capacity maxes out at 125k per quarter between Fremont & Shanghai (500k annual total)
- less than 10k of deliveries from Austin/Berlin in 2021 (closer to zero assumed), volume deliveries in Q122, with aggressive ramp.
- ASPs hold up due to introduction of US tax credit
- CT & Roadster start prodcution around mid-2022, Semi in Q122, but slow ramp.
- No big jumps in growth from Energy & Services, but both become increasingly profitable.

Please feel free to disagree and point out where you differ substantially with my figures/assumptions.
View attachment 660071
The numbers look solid. I have 2 small comments:
- The Cybertruck ramp looks aggressive. If it launches in Q3 2022, I think 25,000 units in Q4 is high. I would estimate half that amount.
- I think Interest Income in 2021 is aggressive as well. Tesla has not been very good at getting high returns on its cash. My guess is that Interest Income will grow more slowly in 2021. Maybe 12m in Q2 and 14m in Q3.

Thanks for sharing your forecast.
 
This is Q2 2021 vs Q1 2021
View attachment 667338
Thanks!

Street estimate for Q2 non-gaap according to google finance is $0.96. Assuming your estimate was right, we´d have a 0.15 beat, almost the same as in Q1 (estimate of $0.79 vs $0.93 actual -> $0.14 beat). Hope delivery event for plaid being pushed by a week won´t mean fewer deliveries...