... and a couple of days later the figures are updated! Doesn't seem a very reliable source.
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
- Start date
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
The Accountant
Active Member
Q2 2021 Estimate vs Q2 2020
Q2 2021 includes $115m Bitcoin impairment charge.
Even with this charge, GAAP earnings are 745m +616% vs Prior Year
Q2 2021 includes $115m Bitcoin impairment charge.
Even with this charge, GAAP earnings are 745m +616% vs Prior Year
The Accountant
Active Member
Q2 2021 Estimate vs Q1 2021
GAAP Earnings grow 70% vs Q1 2021 and this includes the $115m Bitcoin impairment charge.
GAAP Earnings grow 70% vs Q1 2021 and this includes the $115m Bitcoin impairment charge.
The Accountant
Active Member
At the moment, Wall Street has Non-GAAP EPS at $0.95 excluding Bitcoin charge.
I have $1.06 with the Bitcoin charge and $1.14 without the Bitcoin Charge
I have $1.06 with the Bitcoin charge and $1.14 without the Bitcoin Charge
The Accountant
Active Member
For Q2 I assume that Tranche #9 becomes Probable and have com Stock Based Compensation (and CEO Award) for Q2 as follows:
How did you calculate the Automotive Sales? What average price for different cars did you use?
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Since the Bitcoin Charge is entirely an artifact of GAAP accounting methods, shouldn't non-GAAP EPS neccessarily exclude any bitcoin charge?
Bitcoin was over $34.1K at the end of Q2 (an increase over avg purch cost). How is Tesla's cash and digital assets accounted for via non-GAAP rules?
Does Tesla value the asset as per the exchange rate at the end of the quarter?
Cheers!
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The Accountant
Active Member
Leasing has an impact on this calculation as well but the ASP (which includes some FSD uptake) are:
S&X is higher due to the larger number of S Plaids sold this Qtr
The Accountant
Active Member
@st_lopes can probably answer this better, so I will copy him here.
There are no hard and fast rules for Non-GAAP. I believe companies determine it themselves and disclose the definition. I don't think Tesla will remove it from Non-GAAP. Maybe they should as many analysts will.
Tesla will not revalue Bitcoin for the fair value. They will report it at cost (less any impairments). They will disclose the Fair Value in a footnote.
The Accountant
Active Member
Yes - there were price increases for the 3 and Y some as higher as $1,500 per car but I assumed that many of the vehicles delivered in Q2 were locked in with Q1 pricing when the orders were made. Also, it's difficult to keep track of global pricing. I only lock in on the US and China.
So I went with a lower ASP increase vs Q1.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
But how much larger? Can't a significant part of those be remaining old 2020 models? What if they had 1,000 left and managed to sell most of those, perhaps with a good leasingdeal for some?
Is there a way to estimate what the number of s/x in inventory was at the end of 2020? If so it should be somewhat possible to figure something out from there.
What does the inventory at the end of 2020 matter? What matters is the inventory at the end of 2021 Q1. Which was essentially 0. (There weren't much of any S&X deliveries made from February until mid-June.)
The Accountant
Active Member
As @MP3Mike commented, there was no Model S inventory at March 31. The deliveries made in Q2 were manufactured in 2021 and there was a significant push to prioritize Plaid deliveries over Long Range; we saw this from the Model S Deliveries thread. As such, I computed the Average Selling Price to be about $100k (assuming 35% Plaid) and I think that's conservative.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
Well I figured that every s/x sold in Q1 would have to be an old model so we could do the math from there. But if we have a definitive number from end of Q1 that is obviously not necessary.
But I didn't remember anyone showing then that end of Q1 that inventory was close to zero. Guess I missed that.
Sweden and Norway sold one old model X each in Q2 so we gotta adjust for those at least
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Cumulative S/X production through 3/31/21 exceeded deliveries by ~3500 cars. Most of those were demos and long term loaners, not fresh inventory with zero miles. I'm sure some were scrapped along the way. But they do sell demos and loaners, and dumping a bunch via leases on the eve of refresh deliveries might make sense.
You hit the nail on the head - as usual. I have yet to see any public companies report non-gaap adjustments relating to BTC fluctuations.
It’s actually a little surprising considering how lop sided the current US GAAP framework is (must report any point in time unrealized impairment, can’t report any reversal or unrealized gain). It’s completely contradictory to International Financial Reporting Standards, so I’m hoping it’s just a matter of time before some sense is knocked into the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board.
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
That's kinda what I was looking for.
If there were 3,500 at the end of Q4 2020 and they delivered 2,020 in Q1 (and we know those were all old model) there should have been roughly 1,500 left at the start of Q2. As you say some of those are probably scrapped. But can we really know if that's all 1,500 or only say 500?
I assume Tesla loaners are eventually sold as used? But how and when do they get moved to the used inventory? Does that actually count as a 'sale' eventhough it's internal? I would guess not but do we know how it's handled in the bookkeeping?
Overall, I guess it doesn't matter much anymore. Apart from figuring out the average price this quarter. Going forward I think it's safe to assume there are no old models left in inventory.
Thanks for the quarterly models. Elon's comp and bitcoin really take a temporary bite out don't they.
How's that long-term model coming along @accountant? It's pretty difficult to value this company off 2021 numbers since the multiple required is pretty abstract to calculate (and clearly a company selling 900k cars isn't worth 650B+ on that alone; we are expecting 10x+ that eventually). I don't mean to distract too far from the stated purpose of the thread but still, everything is an input into valuation. That's the real goal.
I figure to be worth 650B in dead obvious terms, they have to pass through 50x+ P/E and 13B+ profit eventually. 50x P/E suggests profit growth should be north of 25% (not hard for a long time), and 13B which would be 10%+ net income on 130B+ revenue. So looking like a dead obvious justification could arrive around Q4 2023 if they manage ~2.6M units (or better multiples, or more contribution from other LOB) even for the skeptical. That comes out to a 6.5x revenue multiple vs. 13x or so 2021. 2.5 year look forward isn't too bad and prediction accuracy should be somewhat reasonable.
Separately it would be nice for TSLA to start buying back shares since the ROI is expected to be so high (and I'm sure Elon expects it to be high). At least countering SBC impact would be pretty sweet. If they need cash in the future (to buy their own product for robotaxi? Although I suspect that ramp would be fairly slow at first) I'm sure debt is the way to go.
How's that long-term model coming along @accountant? It's pretty difficult to value this company off 2021 numbers since the multiple required is pretty abstract to calculate (and clearly a company selling 900k cars isn't worth 650B+ on that alone; we are expecting 10x+ that eventually). I don't mean to distract too far from the stated purpose of the thread but still, everything is an input into valuation. That's the real goal.
I figure to be worth 650B in dead obvious terms, they have to pass through 50x+ P/E and 13B+ profit eventually. 50x P/E suggests profit growth should be north of 25% (not hard for a long time), and 13B which would be 10%+ net income on 130B+ revenue. So looking like a dead obvious justification could arrive around Q4 2023 if they manage ~2.6M units (or better multiples, or more contribution from other LOB) even for the skeptical. That comes out to a 6.5x revenue multiple vs. 13x or so 2021. 2.5 year look forward isn't too bad and prediction accuracy should be somewhat reasonable.
Separately it would be nice for TSLA to start buying back shares since the ROI is expected to be so high (and I'm sure Elon expects it to be high). At least countering SBC impact would be pretty sweet. If they need cash in the future (to buy their own product for robotaxi? Although I suspect that ramp would be fairly slow at first) I'm sure debt is the way to go.
