We are on the same page. I saw Elon's tweet the same as you had. The margins and profit were on Tesla Owner usage.
To get total Revenue/Profit for the Supercharger network, I would want to add in the non-Tesla usage.
Since we need to understand both Tesla and non-Tesla usage, your mileage chart is very helpful.
@jbcarioca also,
To get that mileage chart I researched avge miles/yr for each model type, then simply accumulated stock of each model. The bigger flaws are that there is no decrement to account for crashed cars, nor is there decrement by vehicle age (newer cars get driven more than older ones), nor is there a geographocal heterogeneity in the mileage mix. But for a first stab it will do. Let me know if you want any more details (PM me if you want).
I have previously tried to calculate capacity and valuation for the Tesla Supercharger network, but I'm darned if I can find the post/thread anywhere. It would be great if someone could locate it - it was in fact a repost of a calc I did for another forum a few years ago. It set out the data from a first principles perspective to compare both a hydrocarbon forecourt and a Supercharger, and do some network analysis. It then noted the big unknowns in the mix re Tesla Supercharger data.
I calculated out a value comparison with Shell's global forecourt operation and could see that over the next ten years it will become comparable in scale. However at present on the valuation front the valuations I have doodled out are dwarfed by the (lumped) auto mfg valuation it wasn't material. Similarly I have looked into when Tesla becomes material as an energy utility (simply off the back of its electricity purchases/sales for Supercharger use) and again came to the conclusion that whilst Tesla would become a significant sized utility that nevertheless was not material compared to the current auto mfg valuation.
So in both cases
@jbcarioca point that it is only worth investing much of our time in modelling/tracking this if at some point it were to be observable as becoming material. Ditto for Tesla Energy (i.e. the wider play, not just buy & sell for charger use). Ditto for Tesla Financial where I once calculated that at max uptake the insurance business might only be 5% of revenues, ie immaterial again, but might become more material if non-insurance Financials were to come into the mix.
Nevertheless it would be goodf if there were a long term thread where we could organise our data capture and discussion, if only to be able to refer to it periodically without losing it. It would also be good if we could get a steer from Tesla themselves as to what are sensible decompositions of the P&L so that we are at least conducting modelling that is aligned with the way they see the business - that way we might slowly be able to make better sense of any data snippets that do get dropped in front of us.
My own mental decomposition is
Tesla Auto Mfg
- making cars
- sales & servicing
Tesla Energy
- making storage products
- operating storage products, i.e.own account trading
- support & servicing of storage products, inc software i.e. where the trading is someone else's account
- Supercharger network (inc buy & sell of energy)
- Tesla Solar, both product salesand also own-account solar arrays (maybe also wind, one day)
- ultimately also Tesla the energy Utility (virtual or otherwise)
Tesla Robotics
- FSD
- Optimus
- Dojo as-a-service
- etc
Tesla Finance
- Insurance
- leasing
- loans (ie not leasing)
- banking (various flavours)
But really it does not matter what my own long term map looks like. What matters in this conversation is trying to align our modelling efforts with the decomposition that Tesla is prepared to disclose to us.
