EVNow
Well-Known Member
But, clearly Tesla wants the money now more than later. I hope they were able to get $50M to $100M in Q1.
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
- Start date
Total guess, but to me it would make sense that the payment schedule more or less runs equal with the timing of the penalties they are intended to avoid. Ie, that most of not all of it would hit in the coming years when the requirements start to bite rather than today.
tmoz
S85D, Y LR, ex Prius PiP
I can't imagine people putting down deposits enmasse for the Y like they did for the 3.
bdy0627
Active Member
I'm curious what others think about likely revenue growth over the next 18 months. In my spreadsheet, I'm modeling much lower auto revenue until Q4 2019, though it is still about 500M less than Q4 2018. Total auto revenue finally surpasses Q4 2018 in Q3 2020. That surprises me as I thought it would come much sooner. I hope that's not the case. Obviously, this involves a lot of guesswork about deliveries and ASP. This does not include energy revenue. I think my assumptions are reasonably conservative.
Q4 2018
3: 63,150 (ASP $55,800)
S/X: 27,550 (ASP $104,000)
Total: 90,700
Total Auto Revenue: $6,389B
Q1 2019
3: 50,900 (ASP $54,000)
S/X: 12,100 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 63,000
Total Auto Revenue: $3,983B
Q2
3: 58,000 (ASP $52,000)
S/X: 16,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 74,000
Total Auto Revenue: $4,648B
Q3
3: 63,000 (ASP $50,000)
S/X: 22,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 85,000
Total Auto Revenue: $5,394B
Q4
3: 71,000 (ASP $49,000)
S/X: 23,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 94,000
Total Auto Revenue: $5,825B
Q1 2020
3: 87,000 (ASP $47,000)
S/X: 17,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 104,000
Total Auto Revenue: $5,823B
Q2 2020
3: 97,000 (ASP $46,000)
S/X: 18,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 115,000
Total Auto Revenue: $6,298B
Q3 2020
3: 109,000 (ASP $45,000)
S/X: 22,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 131,000
Total Auto Revenue: $7,149B
Q4 2018
3: 63,150 (ASP $55,800)
S/X: 27,550 (ASP $104,000)
Total: 90,700
Total Auto Revenue: $6,389B
Q1 2019
3: 50,900 (ASP $54,000)
S/X: 12,100 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 63,000
Total Auto Revenue: $3,983B
Q2
3: 58,000 (ASP $52,000)
S/X: 16,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 74,000
Total Auto Revenue: $4,648B
Q3
3: 63,000 (ASP $50,000)
S/X: 22,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 85,000
Total Auto Revenue: $5,394B
Q4
3: 71,000 (ASP $49,000)
S/X: 23,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 94,000
Total Auto Revenue: $5,825B
Q1 2020
3: 87,000 (ASP $47,000)
S/X: 17,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 104,000
Total Auto Revenue: $5,823B
Q2 2020
3: 97,000 (ASP $46,000)
S/X: 18,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 115,000
Total Auto Revenue: $6,298B
Q3 2020
3: 109,000 (ASP $45,000)
S/X: 22,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 131,000
Total Auto Revenue: $7,149B
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Tesla reiterated 360-400k deliveries in 2019 vs. your 316k. Only delivering 316k this year would put them in jeopardy.
I hope they are about to launch a new powertrain for S/X with PMSR rear motor, updated power electronics and a larger battery pack with improved cooling that delivers 400 miles EPA range and 250 kW charging. That will reset the bar and hopefully boost S/X sales. The recent emphasis on FSD makes me think this hope is in vain.
ClimateOptimist - Model Y deposits will increase both Cash and the Customer Deposits lines on the balance sheet. There is no effect on revenue or profit.
bdy0627
Active Member
I don't think they are on pace for hitting guidance and I am not going to give Shanghai the benefit of the doubt of adding meaningful production this year. On the other hand, it's probably unlikely Tesla will miss that badly on the production guidance (12%). They will certainly do everything possible to at least get to 360,000. I'll revise my numbers up about 15% and see where that takes us.
bdy0627
Active Member
Here's a revision upwards, closer to the lower end of guidance. This at least provides 2019 deliveries of 344,000. That's not bad, given Q1 deliveries. I think that's a reasonable miss to expect at this point. I have a very difficult time going much higher than these delivery numbers right now. Do others think, based upon the execution we are seeing, that these numbers are overly conservative? I think this illustrates just how amazing Q3 and Q4 2018 were. From a revenue standpoint, they were rather incredible. These numbers at least point to Q4 2019 finally reaching the revenue achieved in Q4 2018. I think it's very unlikely to occur before then. Q1 2020 drops back down below Q4 2018 revenue level due to S/X seasonality and decreasing model 3 ASPs. It's back up above in Q2 2020. This model assumes Tesla reaches a production level of about 7,500 by the end of 2019.
Q4 2018
3 production: 61,394 (4,700 per week)
3: 63,150 (ASP $55,800)
S/X: 27,550 (ASP $104,000)
Total: 90,700
Total Auto Revenue: $6,389B
Q1 2019
3 production: 63,000 (4,800 per week)
3: 50,900 (ASP $54,000)
S/X: 12,100 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 63,000
Total Auto Revenue: $3,983B
Q2
3 production: 71,000 (5,500 per week)
3: 61,000 (ASP $52,000)
S/X: 17,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 78,000
Total Auto Revenue: $4,906B
Q3
3 production: 83,000 (6,400 per week)
3: 72,000 (ASP $50,000)
S/X: 22,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 94,000
Total Auto Revenue: $5,844B
Q4
3 production: 97,000 (7,500 per week)
3: 86,000 (ASP $49,000)
S/X: 23,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 109,000
Total Auto Revenue: $6,560B
Q1 2020
3 production: 106,000 (8,100 per week)
3: 95,000 (ASP $47,000)
S/X: 17,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 112,000
Total Auto Revenue: $6,199B
Q2 2020
3 production: 118,000 (9,100 per week)
3: 106,000 (ASP $46,000)
S/X: 18,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 124,000
Total Auto Revenue: $6,712B
Q3 2020
3: 117,000 (ASP $45,000)
S/X: 22,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 139,000
Total Auto Revenue: $7,509B
Q4 2018
3 production: 61,394 (4,700 per week)
3: 63,150 (ASP $55,800)
S/X: 27,550 (ASP $104,000)
Total: 90,700
Total Auto Revenue: $6,389B
Q1 2019
3 production: 63,000 (4,800 per week)
3: 50,900 (ASP $54,000)
S/X: 12,100 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 63,000
Total Auto Revenue: $3,983B
Q2
3 production: 71,000 (5,500 per week)
3: 61,000 (ASP $52,000)
S/X: 17,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 78,000
Total Auto Revenue: $4,906B
Q3
3 production: 83,000 (6,400 per week)
3: 72,000 (ASP $50,000)
S/X: 22,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 94,000
Total Auto Revenue: $5,844B
Q4
3 production: 97,000 (7,500 per week)
3: 86,000 (ASP $49,000)
S/X: 23,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 109,000
Total Auto Revenue: $6,560B
Q1 2020
3 production: 106,000 (8,100 per week)
3: 95,000 (ASP $47,000)
S/X: 17,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 112,000
Total Auto Revenue: $6,199B
Q2 2020
3 production: 118,000 (9,100 per week)
3: 106,000 (ASP $46,000)
S/X: 18,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 124,000
Total Auto Revenue: $6,712B
Q3 2020
3: 117,000 (ASP $45,000)
S/X: 22,000 (ASP $102,000)
Total: 139,000
Total Auto Revenue: $7,509B
The failure to honor reservation order hurt: it's going to prevent people from putting down deposits in future.
Yeah, the thing is... there was a deadline for pooling 2019 credits. Which they barely made.
And the payment is *negotiated* between Fiat Chrysler and Tesla. Tesla has a strong incentive to want cash up front rather than later. And the ability to walk away from the table. Fiat Chrysler has a strong incentive to get the deal done before the March deadline for making the pool deal. And enough cash to pay upfront.
The negotiation psychology says to me that they pay at least part of it upfront.
Maybe not all because Tesla can't guarantee how many cars Tesla will deliver in the EU. Maybe they pay some amount per Tesla delivered in the EU each quarter, after delivery numbers are reported... if that's the case we might expect something vaguely like 20,000 x 5,000 = 100 million for the first quarter, payable in the second quarter
Looks like they haven't decided whether to pool for 2020, and they may pay again in next Feb/March for 2020.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
There is a problem with your forecast. Every quarter you have production higher by about 10k than delivery. Obviously that is not going to happen - in some quarters P > D and some others D > P. In Q2 for eg., we should see D > P.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
As noted above and in the other thread, your Model 3 inventory builds from 20k today to 52k by yearend. That would be ungood, ha.
Assuming they really mean 360-400k and didn't just repeat that number to avoid embarrassing Musk at the hearing, they have to deliver 90k+ in Q2. We'll see what they say in a couple weeks.
jackbowers
Jack Bowers
I wouldn't count out Y deposits - the fact that the deposit amount is 2.5 times greater than the 3 suggests to me that the positive impact on cash may have been $500 million or more. Maybe I'm dreaming but it seems like the Y was aggressively priced and the keeping-most-stores-prices-going-up reversal was ideal for driving cash deposits.
2H18 "mouse nut" credits (aka non-ZEV) were $231 MM (all in ASP-Auto Sales Revenue). GAAP Net Income in 2H18 was $450 MM.
bdy0627
Active Member
Yeah, I didn't account correctly for the prior quarters in transit. I've redone it but I will avoid mucking up this thread with this stuff.
It's hard to say. In North America, we're primarily depending on organic demand growth. Among those purchasing new cars today, I suspect that the largest stumbling block keeping many from buying a Model 3 is no longer price, it's that they're not sure if they're ready to make the jump to an electric vehicle. Many will come to the conclusion that, yes, they are ready for an EV, but it won't happen overnight; they may need significant encouragement from friends and family.
I don't know how much pent-up demand remains in Europe, China, and other soon-to-be-entered markets. It would be nice if there remains significant backlog, but it seems we can only guess.
Do you have a source for a need to be compliant for 2019, with FCA falling short. I could only find 2020 and 2021.
With those kind of amounts, I'd expect Tesla to be much more active in sending stuff to Europe. Also, I have a hard time seeing how the EU would put regulations in place that would see $500M or so leave in 2019 from a European car maker to an American one. I just have to believe they are more interested in their own interest so to speak. In general, I remain a skeptic this deal is going to be a big turning point. Tesla needs to become structurally profitable without the crutch of regulatory payments. It's a disappointment how little they are even at production rates of 5k/week.
Did a deep-dive into what FCA would have paid for pooling with Tesla, and the issue here is pretty involved relative to anything I read on MSM.
To set the stage, here are the targets that automakers have to hit in 2019, and where they are, as of 2017. The targets for 2019 are the same as 2015. They effectively go up in 2020 (ignoring worst 5%), and full compliance by 2021
Source: https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/EU-LCV-CO2-2030_ICCTupdate_20190123.pdf
On the surface, 2019 doesn't seem like an issue as everyone is below target. But the devil is in the footnotes. Beginning 1/1/2019, EU mandated WLTP to replace NEDC, which is more realistic. This caused about a 25% increase in CO2 g/km of emissions on paper. So the bureaucrats came up with a NEDC-Correlated (NEDC-c) measure that converts back the WLTP numbers to NEDC-c. There is a good bit to read here, but effectively, the NEDC-c numbers are about 8% (10g/km) more than the old NEDC numbers.
Source: JATO Warns of Widening Disparity between WLTP Correlated NEDC Values and existing NEDC Data - JATO
So, this delta pushes FCA over the edge. Assuming the 10 g/km penalty, FCA ends up at 130 against a target of 124. Assuming some optimizations, they probably can optimize to 5 g/km in the hole. Now they sell around 900k per year in EU, which translates to roughly 95 Euro per g/km times 900k vehicles. That is 95*5*900,000 which is roughly 430 million Euro.
This market gets pretty tight for everyone in 2019, except for Toyota. That doesn't leave a lot of options for FCA, leaving Tesla in a fairly decent negotiating position. Given this, I think ARK's $0.5B estimate is unlikely. I'd reckon they went roughly 50-50 for about a 200-250 million Euro. Interestingly, Tesla only needs about 45K deliveries to pull FCA into compliance. This explains them leaving the pool open, potentially for Ford. Ford probably decided to pass purely for reputational reasons or didn't want to help Tesla.
The real fun starts in 2020 though, where these 0 g/km EVs are pure gold. EU is on track to levy 95*30*15million (95Euro/g * 30 g/km shortfall * 15 million sales) in fines - Or a mindboggling 40 Billion every year. An EV at 0 g/km is worth 9k Euro (95*95) in avoided fines. Tesla could easily sell these credits for a small 10% haircut until it gets to 15-20% market share. And it gets progressively worse for the legacy manufacturers as the limits keep going down. No wonder the likes of LG Chem are playing hardball because next year, the European manufacturers don't have an option to not try building EVs.
Where the eff is the European Gigafactory?
To set the stage, here are the targets that automakers have to hit in 2019, and where they are, as of 2017. The targets for 2019 are the same as 2015. They effectively go up in 2020 (ignoring worst 5%), and full compliance by 2021
Source: https://www.theicct.org/sites/default/files/publications/EU-LCV-CO2-2030_ICCTupdate_20190123.pdf
On the surface, 2019 doesn't seem like an issue as everyone is below target. But the devil is in the footnotes. Beginning 1/1/2019, EU mandated WLTP to replace NEDC, which is more realistic. This caused about a 25% increase in CO2 g/km of emissions on paper. So the bureaucrats came up with a NEDC-Correlated (NEDC-c) measure that converts back the WLTP numbers to NEDC-c. There is a good bit to read here, but effectively, the NEDC-c numbers are about 8% (10g/km) more than the old NEDC numbers.
Source: JATO Warns of Widening Disparity between WLTP Correlated NEDC Values and existing NEDC Data - JATO
So, this delta pushes FCA over the edge. Assuming the 10 g/km penalty, FCA ends up at 130 against a target of 124. Assuming some optimizations, they probably can optimize to 5 g/km in the hole. Now they sell around 900k per year in EU, which translates to roughly 95 Euro per g/km times 900k vehicles. That is 95*5*900,000 which is roughly 430 million Euro.
This market gets pretty tight for everyone in 2019, except for Toyota. That doesn't leave a lot of options for FCA, leaving Tesla in a fairly decent negotiating position. Given this, I think ARK's $0.5B estimate is unlikely. I'd reckon they went roughly 50-50 for about a 200-250 million Euro. Interestingly, Tesla only needs about 45K deliveries to pull FCA into compliance. This explains them leaving the pool open, potentially for Ford. Ford probably decided to pass purely for reputational reasons or didn't want to help Tesla.
The real fun starts in 2020 though, where these 0 g/km EVs are pure gold. EU is on track to levy 95*30*15million (95Euro/g * 30 g/km shortfall * 15 million sales) in fines - Or a mindboggling 40 Billion every year. An EV at 0 g/km is worth 9k Euro (95*95) in avoided fines. Tesla could easily sell these credits for a small 10% haircut until it gets to 15-20% market share. And it gets progressively worse for the legacy manufacturers as the limits keep going down. No wonder the likes of LG Chem are playing hardball because next year, the European manufacturers don't have an option to not try building EVs.
Where the eff is the European Gigafactory?
Reciprocity
Active Member
FCA may not have a choice. You want to pool, you have to go by Tesla's terms. Remember FCA is paying for the right to claim ZEV sales so they need to pay for pooling when the sales happen not when the fines happen. You want to pool today, you have to pay today. It's on FCA what their fines will be. If that means they paid for to make credits then that's on them, they should have planned better. Don't worry, they are going to need every single credit they can get, it's going to be hard to sell a non Tesla EV in any large quantities until they get much better.
