Near-future quarterly financial projections

[smorgasbord]

They had 1010 in transit on 12/31 and another 7k unsold inventory.

From where did you get the unsold inventory number? I found the in-transit number at Tesla Q4 2018 Vehicle Production & Deliveries, Also Announcing $2,000 Price Reduction in US | Tesla, Inc. . That's quite a bit lower than Q3's.

 

[Fact Checking]

From where did you get the unsold inventory number? I found the in-transit number at Tesla Q4 2018 Vehicle Production & Deliveries, Also Announcing $2,000 Price Reduction in US | Tesla, Inc. . That's quite a bit lower than Q3's.

You have to sum up and integrate all the quarterly delivery numbers since production of the Model 3 began to arrive at the various fleet size numbers:

  ========|============|============|============|===========|=========|======
  quarter | production | deliveries | Δinventory | inventory | transit | fleet
  ========|============|============|============|===========|=========|======
  2017/Q2 |          0 |          0 |          0 |         0 |       0 |     0
  2017/Q3 |        260 |        220 |        +60 |        60 |      40 |    20
  2017/Q4 |      2,425 |      1,550 |       +875 |       935 |     860 |    75
  2018/Q1 |      9,766 |      8,180 |     +1,586 |     2,521 |   2,040 |   480
  2018/Q2 |     28,578 |     18,440 |    +10,138 |    12,659 |  11,166 | 1,493
  2018/Q3 |     53,239 |     55,840 |     -2,601 |    10,058 |   8,048 | 2,010
  2018/Q4 |     61,394 |     63,150 |     -1,756 |     8,302 |   1,010 | 7,292

The last "fleet" column is "inventory minus in-transit units", which is test drive and showroom units, plus "unsold" inventory of the last few days of Q4 Fremont production. (I put "unsold" in scare quotes because it's unsold in name only: it's simply inventory so fresh that it couldn't be delivered yet - not because Tesla has any trouble selling them.)

Note that the +5k jump in "fleet" size was all U.S. units (Tesla hasn't registered EU VINs at that time yet), most likely batch-built in the most common configurations and color to cover January U.S. demand while Fremont was busy making high ASP units.

This way Tesla avoided crowding out their early Q1 production with lower ASP U.S. units and could dedicate much of January and February production capacity to high margin European and Chinese Performance and LR AWD units.

In Q2 I expect them to keep the ~7k inventory of instantly deliverable units as well, i.e. a steady-state U.S. inventory from the last Q1 days of Fremont production which units didn't have time to be delivered in Q1. The "fleet" inventory count might even grow a bit, it looks inevitable with the Model 3 being delivered at roughly twice as many total delivery locations as before. There's going to be more showroom and test drive models, etc.

 

[Doggydogworld]

You have to sum up and integrate all the quarterly delivery numbers since production of the Model 3 began to arrive at the various fleet size numbers:

  ========|============|============|============|===========|=========|======
  quarter | production | deliveries | Δinventory | inventory | transit | fleet
  ========|============|============|============|===========|=========|======
  2017/Q2 |          0 |          0 |          0 |         0 |       0 |     0
  2017/Q3 |        260 |        220 |        +60 |        60 |      40 |    20
  2017/Q4 |      2,425 |      1,550 |       +875 |       935 |     860 |    75
  2018/Q1 |      9,766 |      8,180 |     +1,586 |     2,521 |   2,040 |   480
  2018/Q2 |     28,578 |     18,440 |    +10,138 |    12,659 |  11,166 | 1,493
  2018/Q3 |     53,239 |     55,840 |     -2,601 |    10,058 |   8,048 | 2,010
  2018/Q4 |     61,394 |     63,150 |     -1,756 |     8,302 |   1,010 | 7,292

The last "fleet" column is "inventory minus in-transit units", which is test drive and showroom units, plus "unsold" inventory of the last few days of Q4 Fremont production. (I put "unsold" in scare quotes because it's unsold in name only: it's simply inventory so fresh that it couldn't be delivered yet - not because Tesla has any trouble selling them.)

Note that the +5k jump in "fleet" size was all U.S. units (Tesla hasn't registered EU VINs at that time yet), most likely batch-built in the most common configurations and color to cover January U.S. demand while Fremont was busy making high ASP units.

This way Tesla avoided crowding out their early Q1 production with lower ASP U.S. units and could dedicate much of January and February production capacity to high margin European and Chinese Performance and LR AWD units.

In Q2 I expect them to keep the ~7k inventory of instantly deliverable units as well, i.e. a steady-state U.S. inventory from the last Q1 days of Fremont production which units didn't have time to be delivered in Q1. The "fleet" inventory count might even grow a bit, it looks inevitable with the Model 3 being delivered at roughly twice as many total delivery locations as before. There's going to be more showroom and test drive models, etc.

Just to be a quibbling pedant, it's best to use delivery numbers from the shareholder's update. The initial production and deliveries update a day or two after the quarter ends can be low by half a percent or so, e.g. actual Q3 deliveries were 56,065 vs. the 55,840 shown above.

It doesn't change the end result much, if I recall the best available numbers puts unsold inventory just a tad below 7000 on 12/31.

 

[Fact Checking]

Just to be a quibbling pedant, it's best to use delivery numbers from the shareholder's update. The initial production and deliveries update a day or two after the quarter ends can be low by half a percent or so, e.g. actual Q3 deliveries were 56,065 vs. the 55,840 shown above.

It doesn't change the end result much, if I recall the best available numbers puts unsold inventory just a tad below 7000 on 12/31.

Yeah, I'm using the P&D reports mostly because only the production & deliveries report allows the splitting of S, X and 3 into separate values for both deliveries. The shareholder update letters tend to mention 3 separately, but don't always split S and X.

 

[Fact Checking]

Bloomberg has also been way off the past three quarters until making last minute "adjustments to their model".

Bloomberg finalized their Q4 estimate on December 30, three days before Tesla's report.

This quarter they've been at 79k for the last week.

But they themselves think 79k production is a bit high.

 

[winfield100]

no numbers 4 Tesla yet
Monthly Plug-In EV Sales Scorecard

 

[NannerAirCraft]

no numbers 4 Tesla yet
Monthly Plug-In EV Sales Scorecard

Tesla Model 3, S, X March 2019 U.S. Sales Estimates

They just haven't added them to the chart yet. Was hoping for more like 15k for March but Insideev could be low on their estimates this quarter.

 

[NannerAirCraft]

Tesla Q1 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries | Tesla, Inc.

"In the first quarter, we produced approximately 77,100 total vehicles, consisting of 62,950 Model 3 and 14,150 Model S and X.

Deliveries were approximately 63,000 vehicles, which was 110% more than the same quarter last year, but 31% less than last quarter. This included approximately 50,900 Model 3 and 12,100 Model S and X."

Honestly very disappointed in these numbers. Revenue and losses are not going to look good.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Tesla Q1 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries | Tesla, Inc.

"In the first quarter, we produced approximately 77,100 total vehicles, consisting of 62,950 Model 3 and 14,150 Model S and X.

Deliveries were approximately 63,000 vehicles, which was 110% more than the same quarter last year, but 31% less than last quarter. This included approximately 50,900 Model 3 and 12,100 Model S and X."

Honestly very disappointed in these numbers. Revenue and losses are not going to look good.

Yeah, it's going to be ugly. Automotive revenue probably below 4b. Gross profit 800m, maybe less. Net loss ~400m. Cash will be way down, too.

They went to one shift for S/X and inventory still grew by 2k cars. Ugh.

 

[neroden]

Net loss 200 to 300 million (400 is too high from my two estimates), cash nearly flat. I put details in the overly busy main thread. S/X deliveries fit my tax credit hangover model, should rise in Q2 ( drop again in Q3 with next expiration)

I am frankly more worried by the inability to escape production hell... Looks like 16 days of factory downtome and 6000/week when opwrating, which indicates continued ramp up issues.

 

[luvb2b]

net loss i think is coming closer to 600m. cash burn is going to be huge, i am guessing well over 1 billion.
i will try to post a model once i have a chance to clean it up.

on cash, basically:
1. payables will draw down draining cash (due to lower volumes)
2. receivables rise due to more vehicles in flight
3. inventory build
4. lower eps and lower cash generation due to volume declines.

on eps:
1. expect a significant charge due to employee cuts. they took 100m when they dropped around 4k employees about 3 quarters ago.
2. expect margin drops on all product lines due to lower volumes and shipping inefficiencies.

i'll try to post a full model which will make it easier to question specific assumptions when i have time.

Net loss 200 to 300 million (400 is too high from my two estimates), cash nearly flat. I put details in the overly busy main thread. S/X deliveries fit my tax credit hangover model, should rise in Q2 ( drop again in Q3 with next expiration)

I am frankly more worried by the inability to escape production hell... Looks like 16 days of factory downtome and 6000/week when opwrating, which indicates continued ramp up issues.

 

[EVNow]

net loss i think is coming closer to 600m. cash burn is going to be huge, i am guessing well over 1 billion.

This means, Q2 will have to be some 200m profit to be overall positive in 4 quarters (for S&P addition).

 

[SBenson]

net loss i think is coming closer to 600m. cash burn is going to be huge, i am guessing well over 1 billion.
i will try to post a model once i have a chance to clean it up.

on cash, basically:
1. payables will draw down draining cash (due to lower volumes)
2. receivables rise due to more vehicles in flight
3. inventory build
4. lower eps and lower cash generation due to volume declines.

on eps:
1. expect a significant charge due to employee cuts. they took 100m when they dropped around 4k employees about 3 quarters ago.
2. expect margin drops on all product lines due to lower volumes and shipping inefficiencies.

i'll try to post a full model which will make it easier to question specific assumptions when i have time.

Thanks for the update. When you say net loss, is that gaap or non-gaap? In the past few quarters there is a difference of about 200mil between the two.

And when you say cash burn are you talking about
- OCF or
- FCF or
- Net Change in Cash or
- Net Change in Cash excluding the convertible payment but including secured financing related to leases and such, the way Musk talks about cash generation/burn

 

[mongo]

Thanks for the update. When you say net loss, is that gaap or non-gaap? In the past few quarters there is a difference of about 200mil between the two.

And when you say cash burn are you talking about
- OCF or
- FCF or
- Net Change in Cash or
- Net Change in Cash excluding the convertible payment but including secured financing related to leases and such, the way Musk talks about cash generation/burn

S&P inclusion is GAAP

 

[luvb2b]

Thanks for the update. When you say net loss, is that gaap or non-gaap? In the past few quarters there is a difference of about 200mil between the two.

And when you say cash burn are you talking about
- OCF or
- FCF or
- Net Change in Cash or
- Net Change in Cash excluding the convertible payment but including secured financing related to leases and such, the way Musk talks about cash generation/burn

gaap earnings and net change in cash

 

[neroden]

net loss i think is coming closer to 600m. cash burn is going to be huge, i am guessing well over 1 billion.
i will try to post a model once i have a chance to clean it up.

on cash, basically:
1. payables will draw down draining cash (due to lower volumes)
2. receivables rise due to more vehicles in flight
3. inventory build
4. lower eps and lower cash generation due to volume declines.

on eps:
1. expect a significant charge due to employee cuts. they took 100m when they dropped around 4k employees about 3 quarters ago.
2. expect margin drops on all product lines due to lower volumes and shipping inefficiencies.

i'll try to post a full model which will make it easier to question specific assumptions when i have time.

You could be right on cash as I ignored payables/receivables effects. (Too unpredictable and always revert to a mean). Payables drop could be huge.

Your net loss calc seems wildly implausible, so I'd like to pick your assumptions apart. Basically:

Expect margin steady as they have actually reduced variable production costs, countering other effects
I think there are fewer time depreciated fixed costs hiding in COGS for Model S and X by now, so lower volume should not change margin much
Model 3 production is not down that much
Expect ASP to stay high (really)
I don't think the severance is hitting until Q2 actually, though who knows
I think TE is up

Of these the most important is my belief that variable production costs are actually down. We shall see; this is something Tesla historically is actually good at. my only hard evidence is the grohmann machine though.

 

[luvb2b]

You could be right on cash as I ignored payables/receivables effects. (Too unpredictable and always revert to a mean). Payables drop could be huge.

Your net loss calc seems wildly implausible, so I'd like to pick your assumptions apart. Basically:

Expect margin steady as they have actually reduced variable production costs, countering other effects
I think there are fewer time depreciated fixed costs hiding in COGS for Model S and X by now, so lower volume should not change margin much
Model 3 production is not down that much
Expect ASP to stay high (really)
I don't think the severance is hitting until Q2 actually, though who knows
I think TE is up

Of these the most important is my belief that variable production costs are actually down. We shall see; this is something Tesla historically is actually good at. my only hard evidence is the grohmann machine though.

we do differ on thoughts on margin.
my counter: on model 3 they had trouble improving margins in q4. since then they cut prices, introduced lower-end models, and dealt with numerous delivery snafus. the lower unit count means the delivery infrastructure utilization was suboptimal vs last quarter. all of these factors produce drags on margin that are hard to overcome.
on model s/x i don't have a good idea of how much fixed cost depreciation or labor are in cogs, but again the combination of a price cut, fewer units, and suboptimal utilization of production infrastructure would all be margin drags.
there's a potential benefit from autopilot software upgrades as those get lumped into automotive sales afaik. so you could have some offset to margins from the one-time autopilot upgrades, assuming they don't separate that out as a one time item (i would expect not).

i doubt this will be a very popular model, but at least people can use it as a starting point from which to insert their own assumptions.

cash and balance sheets are extremely difficult to model and i would expect meaningful variances. on balance sheet, operating lease vehicles could decline due to more leased vehicles running off vs. leased this quarter.

on cash, i have not included an effect of drawing on inventory or other credit lines. it is possible ending cash balances fare better if they draw lines. tesla in general has a lot of large pieces that can affect the final cash that are hard to model - even cash from ops can be wildly moved by changes in how they pay suppliers.

i haven't been spending as much time on tesla lately so i apologize in advance for any errors. please reply if you see them. thanks.

…

s deliveries

x deliveries

s+x deliveries

3 deliveries

3 production

lease s/x % veh

avg price s+x

avg price model 3

revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

1 time autopilot

zev credits

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services/other

total revenue

cost of revenue

auto sales ex 3

auto sales mod 3

auto leasing

total auto

energy storage

solarcity

grohmann

services & other

total cost of rev

gross profit

auto gaap ex 3 gm

auto-zev ex 3 gm

model 3 gm

auto-zev incl 3 gm

storage gm

scty gm

grohmann gm

services gm

opex

tesla r&d

tesla sg&a

1 time costs

solarcity r&d

solarcity sg&a

total opex

op income

interest inc

interest exp

scty interest

other income exp

1time scty gain

pretax income

income tax

net income

non-cont int.

net inc to common

basic shares

diluted shares

diluted gaap eps

gaap net income

+ stock based comp

+ one time scty

non-gaap net income

non-gaap diluted eps

dio

dpo

balance sheet

current assets

cash & eq.

restricted cash

accts rcvbl

inventory

prepaids+other

total current assets

op lease vehicles

solar energy sys

pp&e

intangible assets

goodwill

mypower rcvbls

restricted cash

other assets

total assets

current liabiliites

accts payable

accrued liabs+other

deferred revenue

resale value guar

cust deposits

curr debt+leases

curr solar bonds

total current liabs

lt debt+leases

solar bonds

rel party conv debt

deferred revenue

resale value guar

other lt liabilities

comm stk warrants

capital lease oblg

total liabilities

commits/contings

rdmbl ncis in subs

conv senior notes

nci in subsidiaries

common equity

cash flow statement

cash flows from ops

net loss

dep/amortization

stock-based comp

am of debt discount

inv write-down

loss on disposals

forex loss (gain)

loss on acq scty

non-cash int/other

chgs in op as/lb

accts rcbl

inv / op leases

prepaids/other ca

mypower rcvbls + other

accts pybl/accr liabs

deferred revenue

customer deposits

other lt liabs

net cash from ops

cash flows from inv

pp&e purchases

purchase solar sys

net cash from inv

cash flows from fin

stock issued

debt issued

debt repayments

rel pty solar repaids

coll lease borrowing

stock option excrs

capital lease paids

stock+debt issue cost

investment by nci in subs

dist to nci in subs

buyouts of nci in subs

net cash from fin

forex effect

net change in cash

cash & eq start

cash & eq end

[TD2] luv q1-19e [/TD2][TD2] Dec-18 [/TD2][TD2] Sep-18 [/TD2][TD2] Jun-18 [/TD2] [TD2]6,050[/TD2][TD2]13,500[/TD2][TD2]14,495[/TD2][TD2]10,939[/TD2] [TD2]6,050[/TD2][TD2]14,107[/TD2][TD2]13,215[/TD2][TD2]11,380[/TD2] [TD2] 12,100 [/TD2][TD2] 27,607 [/TD2][TD2] 27,710 [/TD2][TD2] 22,319 [/TD2] [TD2] 50,900 [/TD2][TD2] 63,359 [/TD2][TD2] 56,065 [/TD2][TD2] 18,449 [/TD2] [TD2] 62,950 [/TD2][TD2] 60,000 [/TD2][TD2] 53,239 [/TD2][TD2] 28,578 [/TD2] [TD2] 0.13 [/TD2][TD2] 0.13 [/TD2][TD2] 0.09 [/TD2][TD2] 0.11 [/TD2] [TD2] 103.00 [/TD2][TD2] 106.00 [/TD2][TD2] 104.80 [/TD2][TD2] 105.14 [/TD2] [TD2] 53.50 [/TD2][TD2] 55.75 [/TD2][TD2] 56.78 [/TD2][TD2] 55.80 [/TD2] [TD2]1,084,281[/TD2][TD2]2,540,646[/TD2][TD2]2,642,647[/TD2][TD2]2,088,411[/TD2] [TD2]2,723,150[/TD2][TD2]3,532,057[/TD2][TD2]3,183,389[/TD2][TD2]1,029,454[/TD2] [TD2]253,202[/TD2][TD2]249,748[/TD2][TD2]220,461[/TD2][TD2]239,816[/TD2] [TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]768[/TD2][TD2]52,269[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 4,095,633 [/TD2][TD2] 6,323,219 [/TD2][TD2] 6,098,766 [/TD2][TD2] 3,357,681 [/TD2] [TD2]185,500[/TD2][TD2]131,497[/TD2][TD2]105,317[/TD2][TD2]111,651[/TD2] [TD2]237,600[/TD2][TD2]240,000[/TD2][TD2]294,000[/TD2][TD2]262,757[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]550,000[/TD2][TD2]531,157[/TD2][TD2]326,330[/TD2][TD2]270,142[/TD2] [TD2] 5,068,733 [/TD2][TD2] 7,225,873 [/TD2][TD2] 6,824,413 [/TD2][TD2] 4,002,231 [/TD2] [TD2]947,532[/TD2][TD2]1,850,532[/TD2][TD2]1,875,125[/TD2][TD2]1,546,610[/TD2] [TD2]2,219,367[/TD2][TD2]2,807,985[/TD2][TD2]2,530,794[/TD2][TD2]983,129[/TD2] [TD2]136,729[/TD2][TD2]127,731[/TD2][TD2]119,283[/TD2][TD2]136,915[/TD2] [TD2] 3,303,629 [/TD2][TD2] 4,786,248 [/TD2][TD2] 4,525,202 [/TD2][TD2] 2,666,654 [/TD2] [TD2]185,500[/TD2][TD2]160,706[/TD2][TD2]124,754[/TD2][TD2]146,343[/TD2] [TD2]166,320[/TD2][TD2]168,000[/TD2][TD2]205,800[/TD2][TD2]183,930[/TD2] [TD2]10,999[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2][TD2]11,000[/TD2] [TD2]687,500[/TD2][TD2]657,019[/TD2][TD2]433,992[/TD2][TD2]375,374[/TD2] [TD2] 4,353,948 [/TD2][TD2] 5,782,973 [/TD2][TD2] 5,300,748 [/TD2][TD2] 3,383,301 [/TD2] [TD2] 714,785 [/TD2][TD2] 1,442,900 [/TD2][TD2] 1,523,665 [/TD2][TD2] 618,930 [/TD2] [TD2]21.0%[/TD2][TD2]29.1%[/TD2][TD2]31.6%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2] [TD2]21.0%[/TD2][TD2]29.1%[/TD2][TD2]30.3%[/TD2][TD2]27.7%[/TD2] [TD2]18.5%[/TD2][TD2]20.5%[/TD2][TD2]20.5%[/TD2][TD2]4.5%[/TD2] [TD2]18.6%[/TD2][TD2]24.3%[/TD2][TD2]25.2%[/TD2][TD2]20.6%[/TD2] [TD2]0.0%[/TD2][TD2]-22.2%[/TD2][TD2]-18.5%[/TD2][TD2]-31.1%[/TD2] [TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2][TD2]30.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2][TD2]-100.0%[/TD2] [TD2]-25.0%[/TD2][TD2]-23.7%[/TD2][TD2]-33.0%[/TD2][TD2]-39.0%[/TD2] [TD2]300,000[/TD2][TD2]306,297[/TD2][TD2]315,848[/TD2][TD2]341,129[/TD2] [TD2]500,000[/TD2][TD2]522,452[/TD2][TD2]599,876[/TD2][TD2]610,759[/TD2] [TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]5,615[/TD2][TD2]26,184[/TD2][TD2]103,434[/TD2] [TD2]45,000[/TD2][TD2]50,000[/TD2][TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]45,000[/TD2] [TD2]140,000[/TD2][TD2]145,000[/TD2][TD2]130,000[/TD2][TD2]140,000[/TD2] [TD2] 1,125,000 [/TD2][TD2] 1,029,364 [/TD2][TD2] 1,106,908 [/TD2][TD2] 1,240,322 [/TD2] [TD2] -410,215 [/TD2][TD2] 413,536 [/TD2][TD2] 416,757 [/TD2][TD2] -621,392 [/TD2] [TD2]6,000[/TD2][TD2]7,348[/TD2][TD2]6,907[/TD2][TD2]5,064[/TD2] [TD2]-122,000[/TD2][TD2]-121,723[/TD2][TD2]-122,220[/TD2][TD2]-110,582[/TD2] [TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2][TD2]-53,000[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-14,205[/TD2][TD2]22,876[/TD2][TD2]50,911[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -591,215 [/TD2][TD2] 231,956 [/TD2][TD2] 271,320 [/TD2][TD2] -728,999 [/TD2] [TD2]19,999[/TD2][TD2]21,878[/TD2][TD2]16,647[/TD2][TD2]13,707[/TD2] [TD2] -611,214 [/TD2][TD2] 210,078 [/TD2][TD2] 254,673 [/TD2][TD2] -742,706 [/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]70,595[/TD2][TD2]-56,843[/TD2][TD2]-25,167[/TD2] [TD2] -611,214 [/TD2][TD2] 139,483 [/TD2][TD2] 311,516 [/TD2][TD2] -717,539 [/TD2] [TD2]173,000[/TD2][TD2]172,026[/TD2][TD2]170,893[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2] [TD2]180,000[/TD2][TD2]179,026[/TD2][TD2]178,196[/TD2][TD2]169,997[/TD2] [TD2] -3.40 [/TD2][TD2] 0.78 [/TD2][TD2] 1.75 [/TD2][TD2] -4.22 [/TD2] [TD2]-611,214[/TD2][TD2]139,483[/TD2][TD2]311,516[/TD2][TD2]-717,539[/TD2] [TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]205,313[/TD2][TD2]204,728[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]-403,214[/TD2][TD2]344,796[/TD2][TD2]516,244[/TD2][TD2]-520,195[/TD2] [TD2] -2.24 [/TD2][TD2] 1.93 [/TD2][TD2] 2.90 [/TD2][TD2] -3.06 [/TD2] [TD2] 72.00 [/TD2][TD2] 49.13 [/TD2][TD2] 57.05 [/TD2][TD2] 89.67 [/TD2] [TD2] 55.00 [/TD2][TD2] 53.72 [/TD2][TD2] 61.92 [/TD2][TD2] 81.73 [/TD2] [TD2]2,119,615[/TD2][TD2]3,685,618[/TD2][TD2]2,967,504[/TD2][TD2]2,236,424[/TD2] [TD2]150,000[/TD2][TD2]192,551[/TD2][TD2]158,627[/TD2][TD2]146,822[/TD2] [TD2]888,764[/TD2][TD2]949,022[/TD2][TD2]1,155,001[/TD2][TD2]569,874[/TD2] [TD2]3,435,444[/TD2][TD2]3,113,446[/TD2][TD2]3,314,127[/TD2][TD2]3,324,643[/TD2] [TD2]360,646[/TD2][TD2]365,671[/TD2][TD2]325,232[/TD2][TD2]422,034[/TD2] [TD2] 6,954,468 [/TD2][TD2] 8,306,308 [/TD2][TD2] 7,920,491 [/TD2][TD2] 6,699,797 [/TD2] [TD2]1,953,755[/TD2][TD2]2,089,758[/TD2][TD2]2,186,137[/TD2][TD2]2,282,047[/TD2] [TD2]6,238,682[/TD2][TD2]6,271,396[/TD2][TD2]6,301,537[/TD2][TD2]6,340,031[/TD2] [TD2]11,728,475[/TD2][TD2]11,330,077[/TD2][TD2]11,246,295[/TD2][TD2]10,969,348[/TD2] [TD2]361,502[/TD2][TD2]290,414[/TD2][TD2]291,476[/TD2][TD2]300,406[/TD2] [TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]60,237[/TD2][TD2]65,226[/TD2][TD2]64,284[/TD2] [TD2]414,548[/TD2][TD2]421,548[/TD2][TD2]422,897[/TD2][TD2]434,841[/TD2] [TD2]400,000[/TD2][TD2]398,219[/TD2][TD2]396,835[/TD2][TD2]399,992[/TD2] [TD2]570,000[/TD2][TD2]571,657[/TD2][TD2]431,819[/TD2][TD2]419,254[/TD2] [TD2] 28,681,667 [/TD2][TD2] 29,739,614 [/TD2][TD2] 29,262,713 [/TD2][TD2] 27,910,000 [/TD2] [TD2]2,624,297[/TD2][TD2]3,404,451[/TD2][TD2]3,596,984[/TD2][TD2]3,030,493[/TD2] [TD2]2,345,076[/TD2][TD2]2,094,253[/TD2][TD2]1,990,095[/TD2][TD2]1,814,979[/TD2] [TD2]586,126[/TD2][TD2]630,292[/TD2][TD2]570,920[/TD2][TD2]576,321[/TD2] [TD2]450,000[/TD2][TD2]502,840[/TD2][TD2]604,949[/TD2][TD2]674,255[/TD2] [TD2]965,000[/TD2][TD2]792,601[/TD2][TD2]905,838[/TD2][TD2]942,129[/TD2] [TD2]2,600,000[/TD2][TD2]2,567,699[/TD2][TD2]2,106,538[/TD2][TD2]2,020,685[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]82,500[/TD2] [TD2] 9,670,499 [/TD2][TD2] 9,992,136 [/TD2][TD2] 9,775,324 [/TD2][TD2] 9,141,362 [/TD2] [TD2]8,600,000[/TD2][TD2]9,401,053[/TD2][TD2]9,669,879[/TD2][TD2]9,510,696[/TD2] [TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2][TD2]100[/TD2] [TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,519[/TD2][TD2]2,634[/TD2][TD2]2,594[/TD2] [TD2]879,190[/TD2][TD2]990,873[/TD2][TD2]950,126[/TD2][TD2]795,820[/TD2] [TD2]650,000[/TD2][TD2]328,926[/TD2][TD2]455,762[/TD2][TD2]584,857[/TD2] [TD2]2,981,250[/TD2][TD2]2,710,403[/TD2][TD2]2,555,319[/TD2][TD2]2,607,458[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] 22,783,558 [/TD2][TD2] 23,426,010 [/TD2][TD2] 23,409,144 [/TD2][TD2] 22,642,887 [/TD2] [TD2]402,943[/TD2][TD2]555,964[/TD2][TD2]551,264[/TD2][TD2]539,536[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]900,000[/TD2][TD2]834,397[/TD2][TD2]793,467[/TD2][TD2]821,156[/TD2] [TD2] 4,595,166 [/TD2][TD2] 4,923,243 [/TD2][TD2] 4,508,838 [/TD2][TD2] 3,906,421 [/TD2] [TD2]-611,214[/TD2][TD2]210,078[/TD2][TD2]254,673[/TD2][TD2]-742,706[/TD2] [TD2]457,411[/TD2][TD2]496,737[/TD2][TD2]502,825[/TD2][TD2]485,255[/TD2] [TD2]208,000[/TD2][TD2]205,313[/TD2][TD2]204,728[/TD2][TD2]197,344[/TD2] [TD2]35,000[/TD2][TD2]37,857[/TD2][TD2]46,454[/TD2][TD2]35,074[/TD2] [TD2]31,134[/TD2][TD2]25,289[/TD2][TD2]13,885[/TD2][TD2]27,552[/TD2] [TD2]25,000[/TD2][TD2]28,722[/TD2][TD2]13,789[/TD2][TD2]66,613[/TD2] [TD2]10,000[/TD2][TD2]5,103[/TD2][TD2]-12,799[/TD2][TD2]-41,476[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]20,000[/TD2][TD2]26,414[/TD2][TD2]16,408[/TD2][TD2]9,669[/TD2] [TD2]60,258[/TD2][TD2]189,371[/TD2][TD2]-587,594[/TD2][TD2]70,633[/TD2] [TD2]-185,994[/TD2][TD2]61,548[/TD2][TD2]-57,795[/TD2][TD2]-822,487[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-50,593[/TD2][TD2]63,662[/TD2][TD2]-45,193[/TD2] [TD2]-15,000[/TD2][TD2]-145,010[/TD2][TD2]-2,953[/TD2][TD2]-1,863[/TD2] [TD2]-579,331[/TD2][TD2]94,853[/TD2][TD2]718,277[/TD2][TD2]591,737[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]122,244[/TD2][TD2]176,920[/TD2][TD2]61,702[/TD2] [TD2]172,399[/TD2][TD2]-106,156[/TD2][TD2]-33,449[/TD2][TD2]-24,439[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]85,734[/TD2][TD2]92,308[/TD2][TD2]42,484[/TD2] [TD2] -297,337 [/TD2][TD2] 1,234,561 [/TD2][TD2] 1,391,281 [/TD2][TD2] -129,664 [/TD2] [TD2]-625,000[/TD2][TD2]-324,978[/TD2][TD2]-510,271[/TD2][TD2]-609,813[/TD2] [TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-28,923[/TD2][TD2]-49,494[/TD2][TD2]-67,400[/TD2] [TD2] -655,000 [/TD2][TD2] -365,009 [/TD2][TD2] -560,965 [/TD2][TD2] -682,817 [/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]2,229,598[/TD2][TD2]903,348[/TD2][TD2]1,267,746[/TD2] [TD2]-930,000[/TD2][TD2]-2,135,815[/TD2][TD2]-842,526[/TD2][TD2]-879,328[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-82,500[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2]100,000[/TD2][TD2]-216,081[/TD2][TD2]-142,568[/TD2][TD2]-113,426[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]75,777[/TD2][TD2]94,874[/TD2][TD2]31,053[/TD2] [TD2]-30,000[/TD2][TD2]-74,938[/TD2][TD2]-57,685[/TD2][TD2]-29,395[/TD2] [TD2]-12,000[/TD2][TD2]-9,852[/TD2][TD2]-1,450[/TD2][TD2]-758[/TD2] [TD2]75,000[/TD2][TD2]70,837[/TD2][TD2]113,260[/TD2][TD2]179,333[/TD2] [TD2]-50,000[/TD2][TD2]-48,793[/TD2][TD2]-68,966[/TD2][TD2]-56,603[/TD2] [TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]-3,036[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2][TD2]0[/TD2] [TD2] -672,000 [/TD2][TD2] -112,309 [/TD2][TD2] -84,218 [/TD2][TD2] 398,622 [/TD2] [TD2]58,334[/TD2][TD2]47,937[/TD2][TD2]-6,370[/TD2][TD2]-22,611[/TD2] [TD2] -1,566,003 [/TD2][TD2] 805,180 [/TD2][TD2] 739,728 [/TD2][TD2] -436,470 [/TD2] [TD2] 3,685,618 [/TD2][TD2] 2,967,504 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2][TD2] 2,665,673 [/TD2] [TD2] 2,119,615 [/TD2][TD2] 3,685,618 [/TD2][TD2] 2,967,504 [/TD2][TD2] 2,236,424 [/TD2]

 

[Doggydogworld]

we do differ on thoughts on margin.
my counter: on model 3 they had trouble improving margins in q4. since then they cut prices, introduced lower-end models, and dealt with numerous delivery snafus. the lower unit count means the delivery infrastructure utilization was suboptimal vs last quarter. all of these factors produce drags on margin that are hard to overcome.

I'm onboard with $2250 Model 3 ASP decline. They hoped high ASP overseas shipments would offset the US mix shift, but that hope died with the hasty 2/28 SR+ launch and price cuts. You have Model 3 COGS dropping from $44,300 per car in Q4 to $43,600 in Q1. That sounds reasonable -- production volume barely grew so there were no fixed cost gains. The low hanging scrappage and parts cost fruit has been harvested, thus Musk's "Game of Pennies".

I don't understand your "Auto Sales ex-3" COGS, though. 947.5m vs. 1084.3m revenue gives me 12.6% GM, not 21%. It also looks like 90k COGS per S/X vs. a more reasonable 75k in Q4. Low volume should only inflate COGS ~2k per car. What am I missing here?

I'd probably set one-time costs at 100m vs. 140m. This layoff was similar size to Q2's. Lease terminations could add to it, though.

Thanks for doing this. I'll have more questions after I sift through the cash flows.

 

[DaveT]

Such an ugly quarter. Geez.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Going through the balance sheet:

AR - I say 1150m, +200 from 12/31. That's what it was last time the quarter ended on a Sunday. DSO is always ~2 weeks (or more), which makes no sense as they get "paid on delivery". In reality most sales are financed and I believe there's a 3-4 day gap before Tesla gets cash from the lender. Because the last 3-4 days of a quarter represent ~15% of the full quarter's sales it "looks like" 2 weeks DSO on the quarterly report.

Musk said half the cars were delivered in the last 11 days (3/21-31) this quarter. They accelerated at the very end, so the last 3-4 days were 20-25% of the quarter instead of the normal 15%. As such AR will grow even though revenue is down.

Inventory - I say 3700m, +600m. Adding 2000 S/X @ 60k and 12k Model 3s @ 40k.
PP&E - Should decline since capex<depreciation? But PP&E includes Panasonic equipment and maybe GF3 that isn't capex, so ???
AP - I get 2800m, -600m. S/X is (I assume) 40% of AP, down 45% on 14k vs. 25k production. Model 3 and capex AP flat.

I never know how to handle all the faux leases/RVGs, non-controlling interests and other messy stuff. It seems to mostly be self-cancelling, so I ignore it when possible. Seems like the debt decline should be in current, not long term. I'm pretty sure they'll draw the new 500m on the ABL, but I realize you intentionally left that out.

I have capex at 200m, ex-China. I don't know how they'll account for China. They guided 500m capex for a 150k/year factory. That's non-sensical. I suspect it's build-to-suit lease or something that will show up as PP&E but not capex. Maybe 10-Q will shed some light.