neroden
Model S Owner and Frustrated Tesla Fan
Machines are apparently being delivered to Shanghai already. I realize they probably won't be billed until next quarter.
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That's equipment. Tooling won't arrive for a while. IMHO building and equipment will not count as capex, similar to Buffalo.Machines are apparently being delivered to Shanghai already. I realize they probably won't be billed until next quarter.
Even with unwinding of the wave I expect Model 3 inventory to grow and s+x to come down. So, given the extremely high inventory build up in Q1 ($800M), we'll actually see the inventory level go down. BTW, in luvb2b's Q1 model, the inventory building is a big miss. That makes his cash flow estimate miss the actuals by $300M.I don't see much I'd change. Leasing almost 4k Model 3s will be a ~175m hit to cash flow, but S/X lease fleet will shrink a little and partially offset that. If they partially unwind the wave inventory should grow some. AP/accrued would also grow if they build the ~80k Model 3s needed to deliver 75k and also unwind some.
Possibly. I just wanted to show how much they would have to spend to be in line with their guidance - and they would still be (cash flow - capex) positive for given # of deliveries.I don't see 500m of capex. I know they guided 2.0-2.5b for the year, but they've been far below guidance for several quarters and I don't see any signs they've ramped back up. I don't think GF Shanghai will run through the cash flow statement, except ~500m of tooling which is a long way off.
Equipment directly used for manufacturing (like robots) should count as capex - but probably with their own linear non-unit based depreciation. Unless on lease. Not sure what they are doing in Fremont.That's equipment. Tooling won't arrive for a while. IMHO building and equipment will not count as capex, similar to Buffalo.
You could be right. As you say they haven't disclosed a building/equipment lease, just some Buffalo-like capex and annual tax revenue clauses. I'm sure it'll be on their balance sheet one way or the other, it's just a matter of how it gets there.I think the equipment in Shanghai does count as capex. Not sure about the building. The land is a lease (like all land in China) and must be accounted for as such, so I'd expect that the building would also be under lease accounting (since it is permanently affixed to the land). The equipment, however, has no such arrangement to my knowledge. (In Buffalo, the equipment is technically leased from SUNY, IIRC. I see no similar arrangement in Shanghai.)
Tesla needs to sell roughly
- 250k cars / year to be Operating cash flow positive
- 350k cars / year to make non-GAAP profit
- 450k cars / year to make GAAP profit
Mainly because of refresh and expected higher take rate of FSD. We'll see. There was a bit of discussion on this upthread - basically ASP of $100k instead of $105k would make an impact of $15M on p&l. Not a big impact in the grand scheme.@EVNow I'm wondering what's your reasoning for $105k ASP for S/X? I'd imagine ASP to trend lower due to the reinstatement of standard range models, and also due to the free ludicrous upgrade for existing owners.
Yes - hopefully they'll be ready with a refresh of X before Y is released !@EVNow I would expect Model Y to cannibalise Model X in the same way as what we are seeing for Model 3/Model S now.
Is there any evidence of higher FSD uptake?Mainly because of refresh and expected higher take rate of FSD. We'll see. There was a bit of discussion on this upthread - basically ASP of $100k instead of $105k would make an impact of $15M on p&l. Not a big impact in the grand scheme.
Anecdotal on TMC.Is there any evidence of higher FSD uptake?
The rework would result in higher Service cost - but the volume should be low too, to start with.Rework might be high for initial Model Y builds, not sure how that would figure. Model X was too big for me. Model 3 was too small. I'm hoping model Y will be just right. That is, can I carry everything in it I could in a Prius 2012 PiP.
Anecdotal on TMC.
BTW, I won't be surprised if Q2 ASP is actually higher than 105k. They seem to be prioritizing LR deliveries over SR. Though, this may be offset by all the huge discounts they are giving pre-refresh S.
Post Q2, the ASP may go down a bit. Difficult to figure that out now.
Were you thinking the ASP would be substantially lower than $105k (like $95k or $90k) ?
That is possible - but difficult to tell since there are many moving parts, esp. this quarter.It seems like the price of a fully-optioned long-range Model S/X has significantly come down in the past several months. This will affect ASP. I wouldn’t be surprised if Q2 ASP is under $100k and it drops to under $95k by end of year.
What timeframe are you talking about ?Tesla raised $2.7 billion (really $2.3 after fees), however, if you assume that past debt will be paid and cash reserves return to $0 then the net to Tesla was around $500MM. A non-bailout bailout if you will. They will not meet CapEx forecasted and they are not spending their forecast in R&D. Conserving cash? Hard to see how they return to profitability in 2019 and with ~$30b in debt, dropping S and X sales,
I wrote this response in the Market thread. Wanted to expand on this a bit here.
Main assumptions for 2019 are
- Margin of 20%+
- ASP of 50k+, 100k+ for 3 & s+x
- No big inventory buildup like in Q1
- About $1B in SG&A + R&D.