Thanks for the model. My view is that S/X ASP is likely lower for Q2 than Q1, as the 75 was discontinued for much of Q1 before being replaced with the Raven standard range in Q2, and Q2 will include a significant number of inventory car sales for the pre-Raven models - I have seen discounts of up to $17k mentioned on them.
Yes, but its difficult to figure out the net effect of all the moving parts. What would matter a lot is the order and production status of refreshed cars. I expect them to be making higher ASP s+x first, for eg.
If I decrease ASP from 105k to 100k, for eg, the P&L goes down by about 15M. So, while it would obviously matter sentiment-wise when the quarter is so close to non-gaap break even, the overall model is nowhere close to 15M in terms of accuracy
A big unknown, for eg., is "Net income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interests and redeemable noncontrolling". It has ranged between -75M and +70M in the past 5 quarters (last 2 quarters being +70M and +35M and earlier negative). No way of knowing where it will land this quarter - will it go back to being negative or will it continue to be positive ? I've taken it as zero.
Essentially, looks like the quarter will be similar to Q3/Q4 in terms of deliveries but with lower ASP & Margin. So, lower revenue & profit. We need nearly double the deliveries of Q1 to hit gaap profit if the margin continues to be around 20%, instead of 25% as in Q3/Q4.
