Near-future quarterly financial projections

[Stars aligned]

You are missing the point. Musk said they would "break-even" in Q3, have a difficult Q1 '20. He obviously mean this in terms of "something" - we just don't know. So, if they actually publish this in the letter (we expect to break-even non-gaap in Q3 etc) - we'll know what he is talking about when he says break-even or "difficult".

BTW, I do think it was poor of them to have not anticipated some problems with Q1 and guided for that - and more importantly developed a plan for that instead of doing all kinds of flip-flops in Q1.

Actually I'm not missing the point. Musk refused often to answer detailed analyst questions and make too detailed long term predictions beyond the masterplan, and that's a wise thing to do.

In Q1 2020, some things in the logistics and / or sales plan went wrong. There were many risk factors and things that could go wrong, especially with the international roll-out, and I doubt very much that it would have been helpful if he elaborated them in the call. It would have helped the FUDsters a lot, and Tesla was already under fire.

 

[moneyburner1]

Could there be a potential write down of a part of the $6,200,704 net solar Energy Systems on the balance sheet driven by the Walmart case?

If I understand the case correctly the ~200 Systems were already shut down in 2018 generating no income?

If yes, how much Risk is there?

 

[The Accountant]

Could there be a potential write down of a part of the $6,200,704 net solar Energy Systems on the balance sheet driven by the Walmart case?

If I understand the case correctly the ~200 Systems were already shut down in 2018 generating no income?

If yes, how much Risk is there?

This was the latest news on the Walmart/Tesla solar issue as reported,
....the companies say they're working toward a deal to keep the panels in place, repair them, and begin using them again
"Walmart and Tesla look forward to addressing all issues and re-energizing Tesla solar installations at Walmart stores, once all parties are certain that all concerns have been addressed,” the statement read. “Together, we look forward to pursuing our mutual goal of a sustainable energy future. Above all else, both companies want each and every system to operate reliably, efficiently, and safely"

Based on the latest joint statement, I believe that Tesla could argue that no impairment (write-down) is required at this time....but things could change.

 

[tmoz]

Been quiet here for awhile. A new line in fremont is exciting news. Model Y has to be made somewhere, maybe that is where?

 

[EVNow]

Been quiet here for awhile. A new line in fremont is exciting news. Model Y has to be made somewhere, maybe that is where?

It will be exciting - from P&L perspective - when they actually start selling Y in large numbers, which I think is still a few quarters away.

 

[heltok]

With v10 revenue, Netherlands records etc I am starting to get excited. What are the factset numbers? Are we in for a rapid EPS estimate increase follow by a slight earnings miss? Or are you guys still seeing negative numbers?

 

[EVNow]

With v10 revenue, Netherlands records etc I am starting to get excited. What are the factset numbers? Are we in for a rapid EPS estimate increase follow by a slight earnings miss? Or are you guys still seeing negative numbers?

I don't expect v10 - just enh summon this month.

We have not seen V10 even for EAP yet.

ps : Well, apparently v10 is going to EAP. But no EAP/FSD related features apart from Enh Summon.

Tesla V10: first look at the update and new features - Electrek

 

[mongo]

I don't expect v10 - just enh summon this month.

We have not seen V10 even for EAP yet.

???
So you are saying they will release 9.X instead?
No carioke, no netflix, just super sayian summon?

Looks like V10 is here:

V10 is rolling out to to EAP, HW3 upgrades have started. This is a key milestone, and foundation for the next year. I am thinking early 2020 will bring a lot, including sign recognition.


Tesla V10: first look at the update and new features - Electrek

 

[EVNow]

Looks like V10 is here:

I had missed it. But no traffic sign/light recognition in V10 ? That is one of the things Musk has listed in his tweet - and could have allowed Tesla to recognize more revenue.

 

[mongo]

I had missed it. But no traffic sign/light recognition in V10 ? That is one of the things Musk has listed in his tweet - and could have allowed Tesla to recognize more revenue.

Yeah, Fred's summary didn't cover any new driving functionality. They may still be collecting reliability data from the EAP program to determine what features to enable for roll out.

 

[Nate the Great]

There was an indicator on twitter, that stated that advanced summon comes out next week. Going to early access, will go to T owners in the US next week. Nothing about stop sign recognition.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Here is my P&D estimate - as well as P&L. This is what is needed for break-even in Q3 & profit in Q4, which I think are possible.

View attachment 434295

View attachment 434296

I'm curious about your 97,500 S/X ASP growing to 100k in Q4. With S100D now priced at 79.9k and X 5k more, I have trouble getting above 90k. It doesn't change the overall story much, but was wondering about your thought process.

On the flip side, Model 3 mix in NL+NO+SP looks more favorable than I expected.

 

[EVNow]

I'm curious about your 97,500 S/X ASP growing to 100k in Q4. With S100D now priced at 79.9k and X 5k more, I have trouble getting above 90k. It doesn't change the overall story much, but was wondering about your thought process.

On the flip side, Model 3 mix in NL+NO+SP looks more favorable than I expected.

I've to take another look. At that time, the idea was that as the pre-Raven discounted inventory gets sold the ASP would increase. Perhaps not, given the price changes.

 

[trentbridge]

I have deliveries for Q3

Model S/X 18,500 ASP $94,500
Model 3 81,750 ASP $48,300

Gross Profit: $1,045 million
SG&A $667 million
R&D $334 million
Restructuring. $25 million

Profit before Interest $19 million.

 

[Nate the Great]

@EVNow what are your thoughts on trentbridges numbers?

 

[EVNow]

I have deliveries for Q3

Model S/X 18,500 ASP $94,500
Model 3 81,750 ASP $48,300

Gross Profit: $1,045 million
SG&A $667 million
R&D $334 million
Restructuring. $25 million

Profit before Interest $19 million.

@EVNow what are your thoughts on trentbridges numbers?

Very similar to my numbers, with slightly higher deliveries and slightly lower ASP. @trentbridge, what is your margin assumption?

 

[defc0n]

Estimize currently lists Wall Street estimate as -0.14 eps for Q3. I think that will be pretty close to reality.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Estimize currently lists Wall Street estimate as -0.14 eps for Q3. I think that will be pretty close to reality.

I don't see a fractional loss. They have too many cookie jars. They'll either make 0.10 or lose $1++.

 

[defc0n]

I don't see a fractional loss. They have too many cookie jars. They'll either make 0.10 or lose $1++.

Which cookie jars would they be pulling from for Q3 to avoid a small loss?

 

[Doggydogworld]

Which cookie jars would they be pulling from for Q3 to avoid a small loss?

Warranty reserve, EAP/FSD/etc. deferred revenue recognition, COGS allocation, units of production depreciation schedule (already changed once for S/X), liability accruals, sale/leaseback (recent changes make this one much harder), fleet sales, equipment service date adjustments, "one-time charge" timing, emissions credit revenue timing (e.g. Q1 2019) and many more.

TSLAQ accusations of accounting fraud are laughable. What fraudster reports billion dollar losses? Companies have extreme leeway when it comes to timing, though. A 0.14/share quarterly loss is 30m, only half a percent of revenue. That's child's play. You pay it back the next quarter. Or year, or decade. GE is still paying for Jack Welch's "timing" and other accounting games.