Near-future quarterly financial projections

[ReflexFunds]

No problem. The reason they do not run the configurator after the last ship has left because they do optimize the yet unsold inventories not just based on their best prediction for future orders but also for optimizing Tesla's financial interest. E.g. last quarter that we understand pretty well they have shipped the SR+ -s that had already been ordered and the inventories were higher end.
They could have stated that SR+ -s cannot be ordered, but that was not their choice. Both last quarter and this quarter they cut off delivery promise for the quarter roughly at the time of the last batches. Also the cars are likely batched together by delivery centers at the shipment to minimize logistics cost. 30 configurations are still too big numbers to send a multiples of each to all delivery centers.
Otherwise i do not really think we disagree.

In Europe SR+ switched from December to February delivery estimate at the start of November while AWD/P switched on November 28th. The cutoff date varied by country and not by shipment date.

In Q3 September deliveries were available until late in the quarter.

I guess the quarters production allocation is decided per model option and per local region.

So Tesla will estimate demand for all 30 Model 3 configs for each European country or each US state.
The cars will be sent into ships and already dedicated to local distribution hubs at that stage - they will not be put on the ship as generic European cars or as cars for a specific customer, but as cars for a specific country.

Once all 10 configs for each sub model (sub model being SR+ vs AWD vs P) for a country are no longer available, that sub model delivery date will move to month two of the next quarter.

This will still leave 9 option variants in each country to be delivered as available inventory. Tesla likely also holds back from selling some inventory on each ship to maintain some store inventory, but the majority will already have been bought by customers at this stage.

But there is no incentive for Tesla to show a 2-3 month estimate delivery wait and lose customers to competitors when they still have all options available for delivery within 4 weeks.
So it is fair to assume broadly that when Tesla shows next Q delivery for a specific sub model in a specific country, then there is no longer all 10 options available for that sub model allocated to that country and unsold on incoming shipments.

 

[Fact Checking]

In Europe SR+ switched from December to February delivery estimate at the start of November while AWD/P switched on November 28th. The cutoff date varied by country and not by shipment date.

This happened this quarter too: the last country to run out of its "10-set" Q1 inventory for all three variants was Norway, the other countries ran out even sooner, around mid-February.

I think we can conclude that residual inventory is a function of how well they estimated the distribution of new orders between the 10 configs, not the level of demand.

This very early cutoff of the configurator suggests either good demand, or particularly poor inventory allocation. I believe the inventory imbalance hypothesis is significantly weakened by the fact that all European countries ran out of inventory a couple of days from each other: it's much more likely that Tesla estimated new orders similarly well in the main regions, than similarly catastrophically.

 

[Fact Checking]

In Europe SR+ switched from December to February delivery estimate at the start of November while AWD/P switched on November 28th. The cutoff date varied by country and not by shipment date.

Is there some site or Twitter account tracking the estimated delivery times per configuration and country, or did you record these dates yourself?

 

[EinSV]

More signs of a strong Q1 from Electrek, which is reporting that Tesla North America has delivery targets that match Q4 2019.

With China production and sales on the rise, Europe sold out and a significant number of Ys being delivered, I expect record deliveries for Q1, barring major interruptions at the end of the quarter. Even if coronavirus disrupts deliveries in some regions, IMO we're still likely to exceed current pessimistic market consensus by a large margin.

h/t @KarenRei

Tesla Cybertruck is already boosting sales, keeping momentum without tax credit - Electrek

Shanghai produced 3924 Model 3s in February, according to this source:

Christopher Dungeon on Twitter

Given the shutdown for part of the month, this is very promising for March, assuming no additional shutdowns/supply chain issues.

Edit: another report from the same source gives a slightly different total (3898):

Moneyball on Twitter

 

[ReflexFunds]

So far I am leaning towards total Q1 deliveries (3,Y, S &X) of:
North America: 59k (flat QoQ supported by Y and stock wealth)
EU: 29k (-20% QoQ all due to Holland tax driven timing)
Asia: 18k (flat QoQ)

Total: 106k

North America likely to be lower if supply chain disruptions in China impacted Fremont production during Q1. Asia could be higher if cell supply and other suppliers ramp in March at GF3.

I think consensus is likely around 100k.

Given Tesla's ramp to 4k Feb production at GF3, I think Asia is looking more likely to reach 20-22k Q1 deliveries. This would take my Q1 delivery expectations to 108k-110k. Again assuming no supply shortages in March in Fremont or GF3 due to the virus.

My Asia estimate includes 12-14k GF3 production, 1k GF3 Q4 inventory and 7k Asia imports.

Shipment loading days from SFO to asia were 7.4 in Q1 vs 18.4 in Q4. I estimate the 18.4 shipment days led to ~18k deliveries in Q4, so my Q1 import estimate is based off scaling the loading days. However we can't model very precisely as not all ships leave from SFO (particularly AUX & NZ, & likely some other Asian countries) and we don't know exactly how much leftover inventory was available each quarter.

 

[EVNow]

Two weeks back Italy had 20 cases. Now 1/4th the country is in quarantine. Italy has a 20%+ daily growth of cases. As Musk keeps saying people don't understand exponential (including Musk, apparently, from his tweet).

What are the chances CA/WA are in quarantine by end of this month - or in April ? I feel western Washington being in quarantine by end of March is likely - but probably not CA. April is not going to be pretty.

Can't really figure out what this means for Q1/Q2 P&L at this point.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Two weeks back Italy had 20 cases. Now 1/4th the country is in quarantine. Italy has a 20%+ daily growth of cases. As Musk keeps saying people don't understand exponential (including Musk, apparently, from his tweet).

What are the chances CA/WA are in quarantine by end of this month - or in April ? I feel western Washington being in quarantine by end of March is likely - but probably not CA. April is not going to be pretty.

Can't really figure out what this means for Q1/Q2 P&L at this point.

US cases are growing faster than 20%/day and will ramp faster as testing finally becomes widespread this week. More alarming is Italy going from first death on 2/21 to 366 today. I hope the US is at an earlier stage today than Italy was on 2/21 and our much higher death toll is simply an artifact of it hitting that acute care facility. If so we can follow a South Korea path and avoid lockdowns. I don't think SK will see significant industrial disruption.

 

[vikings123]

We are right around that timeframe when Tesla usually announces any end of quarter “specials”. It will be interesting to watch for any news on that front. I’m seeing a lot of inventory in my metro area.

Hopefully there is no major impact to Q1 deliveries due to COVID19.

 

[AudubonB]

Err....
I’m not seeing any tweaking of estimates yet as a function of Tesla having divulged the production today of car #1E6. @Dodger, elsewhere, suggests that demonstrates a quarterly run of 113K* - handsomely more than last quarter’s 105Kprdxn/109Kdlvr and massively greater than any prior 1Q.

*# is without regard to any possible rise in weekly GF3 rate from 2K to 3.5K, also as suggested in other locations.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Err....
I’m not seeing any tweaking of estimates yet as a function of Tesla having divulged the production today of car #1E6. @Dodger, elsewhere, suggests that demonstrates a quarterly run of 113K* - handsomely more than last quarter’s 105Kprdxn/109Kdlvr and massively greater than any prior 1Q.

*# is without regard to any possible rise in weekly GF3 rate from 2K to 3.5K, also as suggested in other locations.

I have Tesla production at 920k through YE19, so 1m on 3/10 extrapolates to 104k in Q1. I expect 105-107k because GF3 average rate will be higher the next three weeks vs. QTD.

 

[Troy]

I'm calculating 919,572 units produced at the end of 2019 including 2349 Roadsters. Elon said, 1,000,000 units at the end of 9 March 2020. That would mean 1,000,000-919,572= 80,428 units produced in 56 workdays.

In the US, Q1 has 75 workdays. Therefore if we simply extrapolate, this would mean 80,428*75/56=107,716 units produced in Q1. It could be a little higher than that because Shanghai is increasing production.

However, the last few days of Q1 production in Shanghai won't be deliverable in Q1. Also, coronavirus needs to be considered. It gets 10x every 16 days. The end of March is likely to be much worse than now.

I think deliveries are likely to be in the 96-101K range.

 

[Troy]

I have done a detailed calculation and my Tesla delivery estimate for Q1 2020 is now 98,500 units. This is based on shipping data, data from my Model 3 & Model Y surveys and it also includes adjustments for production increase in Shanghai and Model Y deliveries in the US.

My production estimate is 107,000 units.

The breakdown for China is:
2,400 imported in Q1
1,000 Shanghai production in Q4 2019
12,800 Shanghai production in Q1 2020
Total= 16,200 units (1,900 undelivered, 14,300 delivered at the end of Q1)

Model Y: 1,800 units delivered (included in 44,800 US deliveries)

 

[upkerry14]

Been waitin' three months for mine.....

 

[jerryfan2000]

I have done a detailed calculation and my Tesla delivery estimate for Q1 2020 is now 98,500 units. This is based on shipping data, data from my Model 3 & Model Y surveys and it also includes adjustments for production increase in Shanghai and Model Y deliveries in the US.
Model Y: 1,800 units delivered (included in 44,800 US deliveries)

I remember there is 2000 or 3000 Model 3 delivery in Taiwan. Not sure is it included in the APAC.

 

[Fact Checking]

80,428 units produced in 56 workdays.

In the US, Q1 has 75 workdays. Therefore if we simply extrapolate, this would mean 80,428*75/56=107,716 units produced in Q1. It could be a little higher than that because Shanghai is increasing production.

Note that Fremont typically has a few shutdown days in January, while goes full tilt in March.

So with 1k/day Fremont production that could shift Q1 production upwards.

I think 110k+ production is possible in Q1 extrapolating from existing data - of course with large error bars due to coronavirus disruption...

Deliveries slightly below 100k sound reasonable - Tesla probably over-drained inventory in Q4.

 

[powertoold]

Fact that Tesla achieved 1 mil production recently is a testament to its robust supply chain. Many other companies have had to suspend production as a result of Mr. 19. Good job Tesla team! Also well-timed capital raise by Kirkhorn!

 

[AlexS]

Is anyone concerned here on higher side cancellation rate, or is it out of the question?

 

[gerebgraus]

Is anyone concerned here on higher side cancellation rate, or is it out of the question?

I am concerned, but I would not dare to guess the level. Tesla had a demand surplus for Model 3 before the economic disruption started. That might not be true any longer. Although the major supply constrain for production is the battery cell shortage. If they can ramp up Model Y production fast enough that might use all the battery cells available. Model Y should have sufficient demand even during a recession.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Is anyone concerned here on higher side cancellation rate, or is it out of the question?

Given so many deliveries are always in the last 2 weeks of the quarter, I think the biggest risk to Q1 is delivery delays due to quarantines.
I guess we will see some cancellations but it’s hard to judge at this stage.
Of course there are also production risks if Fremont was held back by parts disruption or if there will be disruption due to virus cases in the next 2 weeks.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Given so many deliveries are always in the last 2 weeks of the quarter, I think the biggest risk to Q1 is delivery delays due to quarantines.
I guess we will see some cancellations but it’s hard to judge at this stage.
Of course there are also production risks if Fremont was held back by parts disruption or if there will be disruption due to virus cases in the next 2 weeks.

2 registered in Norway today. Not that Norway was going gangbusters, but still. Only 9 EVs total in Norway, so it's not a Tesla thing.

UK isn't shutting down yet, and that's probably 40% of Tesla Europe this quarter. But the wave is going to bite them in a few countries. I don't see a problem in the US.