DarkandStormy
Active Member
Noodling around with Tesla's 4 and 5 millionth car announcements, alongside quarterly P&D reports, I came up with a few estimates for production rate per calendar day. These estimates have error bands since they said "this week" for 5m vs giving an actual day (I assumed Wednesday, 9/13/22) and their early year P&D reporting was a bit haphazard.
5.6k/day - March production
5.3k/day - Q2 production
4.7k/day - Q3 production through 9/13
The numbers point toward 435k Q3 production, with a 95% confidence interval (haha) of 420-450k. Note that while 4.7k/day looks low, it's higher than the 4.6k/day averaged in Jan/Feb of this year. Lunar New Year and other slowdowns meant Shanghai alone averaged 0.5k/day less than max the first two months of the year, plus some start of year down days at the other factories.
Just noting this was basically spot on.