Just noting this was basically spot on.
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Near-future quarterly financial projections
- Thread starter luvb2b
- Start date
Just noting this was basically spot on.
JamesCat: $0.70 adj eps (non GAAP)
Gary Black: $.72 adj eps
Also looking forward to the resident forecaster´s estimates!
@petit_bateau @DarkandStormy @Doggydogworld @The Accountant and others..
Thanks for your effort!
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I've hidden some lines to clean things up. Here is my rough stab at it. I'm sure it's wrong.
That leap across the -/+ Zero point in your Tax line might make you consider writing “n/a” instead of that problematic %age change.
Updating the collection (non GAAP adj EPS):
JamesCat: $0.70
Gary Black: $0.72
DarkandStormy: $0.73
Wall Street Consensus: $0.74
MattchasmMatt: $0.81
Still waiting for Troy, says is going to publically post his estimate today. Rob Maurer doing an earnings preview in today´s epsiode.
Has anyone seen the company compiled estimates from analysts, when does that usually come out and where?
The Accountant
Active Member
I have decided not to publish quarterly estimates due to a lack of time and quite frankly, the fact that there are now numerous TSLA investors who do a very good job. In reviewing the estimates from the forecasters below, I sense $0.75 could be a good number.
Interested to see what Rob Maurer publishes.
Yahoo Finance Consensus is now at $0.70 (down from $0.73 earlier) but we should see a number from Tesla IR today on what the compiled WS Analyst number is.
Interested to see what Rob Maurer publishes.
Yahoo Finance Consensus is now at $0.70 (down from $0.73 earlier) but we should see a number from Tesla IR today on what the compiled WS Analyst number is.
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Wow. $1.02 from James. Looks like Tesla's future depends on whether or not Loki eats his breakfast.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
He's definitely not playing by price is right rules. If so he would have bid 0.86 to be just above CuriousPejjy.
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Don't think it was posted. Rob is at $.76 non-GAAP EPS, though he notes he's including about $0.05/share from deferred FSD revenue, if that matters to you.
WS "consensus" seems to be $.72/share, depending on which service you use. 90 days ago it was $.88/share.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Not sure we got anything new in FSD last quarter - I don't think a lot of older FSD buyers suddenly got into FSD either. What did I miss ?
You missed that anyone who bought, or subscribed, to FSD now has the ability to to opt-in to FSD Beta. (And Tesla removed the "coming soon" indicator from Autosteer on City Streets. So they now consider that feature made available to everyone, at least in the US. (And possibly Canada.)
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
James is always way out in left field. Not sure why anyone ever pays any attention to his predictions.
Wow. $1.02 from James. Looks like Tesla's future depends on whether or not Loki eats his breakfast.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Not sure why any of that counts.
The change from coming soon to available now just means they don't have to put new FSD buys in to deferred. Old ones had already been recognized in earlier quarters.
Aren’t the figures now out for Q3 and non GAAP EPS seems to be $0.66? If I’m reading it right, everyone overstated by a reasonable amount.
Old ones had not already been fully recognized, as most of the FSD purchasers did not have access to FSDb, and Tesla had stated that they don't recognize revenue for limited releases.
Correct, SGA was higher QoQ despite selling 31k fewer units. Also looks like COGS declined because of trim mix with a minimal amount due to efficiency/savings. Also, higher R&D as the CT is finishing up (my guess).
So total revs down, OpEx up. Reg credits made up 32% of GAAP net income and 24% of non-GAAP income. Fairly ugly quarter, but factories *should* be back on-line in Q4, Highland release coming, and CT kicks off in December, though Elon tempered those expectations.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Thats old news
Tesla allowed everyone who had bought FSD to get FSD end of last year. A few of them who couldn't get it because they were on higher release got FSD in Q1/Q2. That is why there were huge deferred revenue recognized earlier this year. $324 million in Q4, for eg.
