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Near-future quarterly financial projections

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Noodling around with Tesla's 4 and 5 millionth car announcements, alongside quarterly P&D reports, I came up with a few estimates for production rate per calendar day. These estimates have error bands since they said "this week" for 5m vs giving an actual day (I assumed Wednesday, 9/13/22) and their early year P&D reporting was a bit haphazard.

5.6k/day - March production
5.3k/day - Q2 production
4.7k/day - Q3 production through 9/13

The numbers point toward 435k Q3 production, with a 95% confidence interval (haha) of 420-450k. Note that while 4.7k/day looks low, it's higher than the 4.6k/day averaged in Jan/Feb of this year. Lunar New Year and other slowdowns meant Shanghai alone averaged 0.5k/day less than max the first two months of the year, plus some start of year down days at the other factories.

Just noting this was basically spot on.
 
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I've hidden some lines to clean things up. Here is my rough stab at it. I'm sure it's wrong. ☺️
 
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JamesCat: $0.70 adj eps (non GAAP)
Gary Black: $.72 adj eps


Also looking forward to the resident forecaster´s estimates!
@petit_bateau @DarkandStormy @Doggydogworld @The Accountant and others..
Thanks for your effort!

Updating the collection (non GAAP adj EPS):

JamesCat: $0.70
Gary Black: $0.72
DarkandStormy: $0.73
Wall Street Consensus: $0.74
MattchasmMatt: $0.81

Still waiting for Troy, says is going to publically post his estimate today. Rob Maurer doing an earnings preview in today´s epsiode.
Has anyone seen the company compiled estimates from analysts, when does that usually come out and where?
 
I have decided not to publish quarterly estimates due to a lack of time and quite frankly, the fact that there are now numerous TSLA investors who do a very good job. In reviewing the estimates from the forecasters below, I sense $0.75 could be a good number.
Interested to see what Rob Maurer publishes.
Yahoo Finance Consensus is now at $0.70 (down from $0.73 earlier) but we should see a number from Tesla IR today on what the compiled WS Analyst number is.

1697626151243.png
 
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I have decided not to publish quarterly estimates due to a lack of time and quite frankly, the fact that there are now numerous TSLA investors who do a very good job. In reviewing the estimates from the forecasters below, I sense $0.75 could be a good number.
Interested to see what Rob Maurer publishes.
Yahoo Finance Consensus is now at $0.70 (down from $0.73 earlier) but we should see a number from Tesla IR today on what the compiled WS Analyst number is.

View attachment 983144

Tesla compiled consensus is $0.72:

1697628114746.png



From: (and others)
 
I have decided not to publish quarterly estimates due to a lack of time and quite frankly, the fact that there are now numerous TSLA investors who do a very good job. In reviewing the estimates from the forecasters below, I sense $0.75 could be a good number.
Interested to see what Rob Maurer publishes.
Yahoo Finance Consensus is now at $0.70 (down from $0.73 earlier) but we should see a number from Tesla IR today on what the compiled WS Analyst number is.

View attachment 983144
1697626151243-png.983144


Wow. $1.02 from James. Looks like Tesla's future depends on whether or not Loki eats his breakfast.
 
I have decided not to publish quarterly estimates due to a lack of time and quite frankly, the fact that there are now numerous TSLA investors who do a very good job. In reviewing the estimates from the forecasters below, I sense $0.75 could be a good number.
Interested to see what Rob Maurer publishes.
Yahoo Finance Consensus is now at $0.70 (down from $0.73 earlier) but we should see a number from Tesla IR today on what the compiled WS Analyst number is.

View attachment 983144

Don't think it was posted. Rob is at $.76 non-GAAP EPS, though he notes he's including about $0.05/share from deferred FSD revenue, if that matters to you.

WS "consensus" seems to be $.72/share, depending on which service you use. 90 days ago it was $.88/share.
 
Not sure we got anything new in FSD last quarter - I don't think a lot of older FSD buyers suddenly got into FSD either. What did I miss ?
You missed that anyone who bought, or subscribed, to FSD now has the ability to to opt-in to FSD Beta. (And Tesla removed the "coming soon" indicator from Autosteer on City Streets. So they now consider that feature made available to everyone, at least in the US. (And possibly Canada.)
 
You missed that anyone who bought, or subscribed, to FSD now has the ability to to opt-in to FSD Beta. (And Tesla removed the "coming soon" indicator from Autosteer on City Streets. So they now consider that feature made available to everyone, at least in the US. (And possibly Canada.)
Not sure why any of that counts.

The change from coming soon to available now just means they don't have to put new FSD buys in to deferred. Old ones had already been recognized in earlier quarters.
 
Not sure why any of that counts.

The change from coming soon to available now just means they don't have to put new FSD buys in to deferred. Old ones had already been recognized in earlier quarters.
Old ones had not already been fully recognized, as most of the FSD purchasers did not have access to FSDb, and Tesla had stated that they don't recognize revenue for limited releases.
 
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Aren’t the figures now out for Q3 and non GAAP EPS seems to be $0.66? If I’m reading it right, everyone overstated by a reasonable amount.


Correct, SGA was higher QoQ despite selling 31k fewer units. Also looks like COGS declined because of trim mix with a minimal amount due to efficiency/savings. Also, higher R&D as the CT is finishing up (my guess).

So total revs down, OpEx up. Reg credits made up 32% of GAAP net income and 24% of non-GAAP income. Fairly ugly quarter, but factories *should* be back on-line in Q4, Highland release coming, and CT kicks off in December, though Elon tempered those expectations.
 
Old ones had not already been fully recognized, as most of the FSD purchasers did not have access to FSDb, and Tesla had stated that they don't recognize revenue for limited releases.
Thats old news ;)

Tesla allowed everyone who had bought FSD to get FSD end of last year. A few of them who couldn't get it because they were on higher release got FSD in Q1/Q2. That is why there were huge deferred revenue recognized earlier this year. $324 million in Q4, for eg.
 
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