Next generation Model X

[McKricas]

Hi,

I'm currently considering between buying a Model 3 or a Model X. I know they're different vehicles (with different costs) and I know the "right" decision would be to have the two. Unfortunately, that is not a option for me and I'm torn between the two for different reasons.

Model X with a 6 or 7 seat would be the adequate choice for me as I have 2 kids and the extra seats would be really helpful, but when I look at the current versions of Model X I can't help to note that they're still, a somewhat, dated "version" in the "technology level line" of Tesla.

Model 3, being the newest model, as several hardware improvements that I'm sure will appear in Model S and X as soon as Tesla have the time to take theirs eyes from Model 3 (and probably Model Y).

I'm talking about:

• 2170 cell batteries capable of a denser energy pack :
  • This would probably be able to create a version of the Model X with a 120 kWh pack and 350 miles of range probably with the same weight and cost as the current 100 kWh pack;
    
  • As the 2170 cells are produced in progressive greater quantities, their cost efficiency continue to improve. These cells produced in enough quantities for all Model 3, S, X (and Y) production will make them very cheap due to economies of scale. As such, it would be also possible to have a 100 kWh pack for the same price as the current 75 kWh pack;
  • We also know that these cells accept more energy per unit of time as we already see it with Model 3 faster charge rates. With a 120 kWh pack it would probably even charge at a higher rate because of the bigger pack (the bigger the pack the higher charge power);
  • This will also be aligned with the new Supercharger 3.0 version due probably next year;
• Permanent magnet motors:
  • Model S and X will probably use one (or two) PMM in the rear and an AC motor in the front similar with Model 3, for better efficiency at low and high speed, faster acceleration and enhanced cornering;
• Interior Refresh:
  • Model 3 interior clearly is set to define the next-gen style for Tesla. It's just a question of time for Model S and X to change for a similar interior (which I personally like and prefer);
• Better Electronics (controller / MCU / AP hardware):
  • Model 3 electronics are a "next-gen" version (see Munro analysis) that are much more simpler, efficient, faster and with better quality than the electronics currently present in Model S and X (which are still from 2012). I'm sure that this will migrate to Model S and X sometime in the future too;

For these reasons I think Model S and X are due for a major refresh sometime in the next 2 or 3 years. I think we will see a lighter, faster, nicer Model S and X with 120 kWh pack that charge faster than current Model 3. There's a possibility also for being cheaper.

So, knowing this and for a person that usually have a car for around 10 years it's hard for me to go for a Model X now. This is the reason that I'm considering going for a Model 3 for the next 3 years until the refresh of the Model X happen.

What do you think ?

 

[spentan]

I have 6 Model Xes, including a P100D and a P3D.

I love driving the P3D, and would choose it everytime, despite being 6ft9in and 360lbs.

It's just the "next generation" in tech. I would be waiting for a Model X Refresh if I was to buy a new X. I prefer the 3 to the S also in all cases.

 

[BluestarE3]

Or maybe wait until the Model Y reveal (presumably March 2019), to see if that might be a better fit for your family than the Model 3 sedan while giving you the latest technology? Right now, we don't know what seating configurations will be offered for the Model Y, nor do we know when there will be a major refresh for the Model X... so maybe holding off for a few more months may allow you to make a more informed decision?

 

[XtheGas]

They will definitely get a refresh soon...maybe as early as next year. I struggled with this as well. I finally pulled the trigger on a X to take advantage of the full tax credit. I think Tesla's and most electric cars will constantly be updated to newer technologies. More range would be a bonus but it's not a requirement for me. My X will have the hardware to take advantage of the future autopilot improvements and enhanced software will be delivered over the air. I decided if I waited until the refresh that I might be attracted to the "next" refresh and so on. Heck, there are a lot of other manufacturers creating some awesome EVs in the next few years. I think it will be a whole new game by 2025 and I'll upgrade my 2018 X then.

 

[McKricas]

Or maybe wait until the Model Y reveal (presumably March 2019), to see if that might be a better fit for your family than the Model 3 sedan while giving you the latest technology? Right now, we don't know what seating configurations will be offered for the Model Y, nor do we know when there will be a major refresh for the Model X... so maybe holding off for a few more months may allow you to make a more informed decision?

Model Y should be available only by 2020 / 2021. Probably later here in Europe...so, it's not a real option for me now.

 

[McKricas]

They will definitely get a refresh soon...maybe as early as next year. I struggled with this as well. I finally pulled the trigger on a X to take advantage of the full tax credit. I think Tesla's and most electric cars will constantly be updated to newer technologies. More range would be a bonus but it's not a requirement for me. My X will have the hardware to take advantage of the future autopilot improvements and enhanced software will be delivered over the air. I decided if I waited until the refresh that I might be attracted to the "next" refresh and so on. Heck, there are a lot of other manufacturers creating some awesome EVs in the next few years. I think it will be a whole new game by 2025 and I'll upgrade my 2018 X then.

yeah, I agree. There will always be some new technology that will be part of some "refresh" later on. But I think we are really at the end of a cycle here with current Model S and X. Remember that most of the tech in these cars are from original 2012 Model S. There had been improvements off course but the majority of the sub-systems continue the same.

I think there's just too many improvements that will happen in the next two or three years in Model S and X.

I think the only reason Tesla didn't refreshed these Models yet are because they're still able to sell them at a good rate and there's no competition yet at the same level.

 

[Tam]

...2170 cell batteries...

2170 is not proven while 18650 has been on the road since the time of 2009 Roaster to 2012 S and 2015 X.

...Permanent magnet motors...

Is it more about the economy rather than performance?

So it's unlikely changed.

...Interior Refresh...

I have no idea. The only advantage from Model 3 interior that I appreciate is coat hooks.

...Better Electronics (controller / MCU / AP hardware)...

True prior to 3/2018 but S and X now have caught up as of 3/2018.

As in any new technology, if you wait long enough, you'll get a better and cheaper one. The question is how long can you wait.

For a family of 4, I would get a Model X now and trade in when it's refreshed (such as longer range...). You'll incur a loss of course but it's another price to pay to keep up with technology.

 

[HostileHarry]

Get a used X... that way you pay less and can set yourself up for upgrade in the future

 

[HugoBoss]

You plan on more kids or think it could happen accidentally? I so get an X, otherwise get the 3.
I have three kids going on four soon, we have an X. If the plan was just two kids we would of gotten an S at the time. If it was today definitely the 3

 

[mikevbf]

I noticed you're from Europe. From my experience driving in Western Europe, a smaller more responsive car for narrower roads and tiny parking garages would be preferable. Any European Model X want to speak about how it is to drive such a wide car in europe? Here is a cool video/quasi advertisement for the Model 3 in Europe (note it starts with Model S and X owners talking about their cars):

 

[gnuarm]

• 2170 cell batteries capable of a denser energy pack :
  • This would probably be able to create a version of the Model X with a 120 kWh pack and 350 miles of range probably with the same weight and cost as the current 100 kWh pack;
    
  • As the 2170 cells are produced in progressive greater quantities, their cost efficiency continue to improve. These cells produced in enough quantities for all Model 3, S, X (and Y) production will make them very cheap due to economies of scale. As such, it would be also possible to have a 100 kWh pack for the same price as the current 75 kWh pack;
  • We also know that these cells accept more energy per unit of time as we already see it with Model 3 faster charge rates. With a 120 kWh pack it would probably even charge at a higher rate because of the bigger pack (the bigger the pack the higher charge power);
  • This will also be aligned with the new Supercharger 3.0 version due probably next year;

Not sure if the new cells will ever be used in the S or X. There is a lot more to designing a battery than just connecting cells together. They have to be packed into an array that allows for cooling as well as mechanical support and electrical contact. Leaving a few cells out would allow for the pack to be the same length, but with the larger cell size the pack would need to be taller but more importantly the same packing pattern would be wider. I don't think a half cm of extra height would be so huge a problem, but I'm not sure the fit in the car could accommodate the extra width. But perhaps there could be some improvements in the cooling design that makes room for a wider cell.

I am not aware the model 3 charges at a higher rate. It may charge at a higher MPH factor, but that would be due to the higher miles/kWh of the vehicle rather than a higher kW charging rate, no?

Certainly the higher production volume of the 2170 cells will lower the cost and make newer model S and X cars lower cost or more likely higher profit margin. So there is incentive for sure.

• Permanent magnet motors:
  • Model S and X will probably use one (or two) PMM in the rear and an AC motor in the front similar with Model 3, for better efficiency at low and high speed, faster acceleration and enhanced cornering;

To design in new motors likely would require a significant improvement. Is the improvement really so great? BTW, how does this produce improved cornering? Are the PM motors lighter?

• Interior Refresh:
  • Model 3 interior clearly is set to define the next-gen style for Tesla. It's just a question of time for Model S and X to change for a similar interior (which I personally like and prefer);

What about the interior, the single screen console???

• Better Electronics (controller / MCU / AP hardware):
  • Model 3 electronics are a "next-gen" version (see Munro analysis) that are much more simpler, efficient, faster and with better quality than the electronics currently present in Model S and X (which are still from 2012). I'm sure that this will migrate to Model S and X sometime in the future too;

Again, it is hard to imagine a change here unless there is significant improvement. What is lacking in the S and X that the 3 provides? I know Tesla has designed their own chip for graphics processing which I am not certain is the right way to go, but who knows for sure. But that chip is not yet in any car.

For these reasons I think Model S and X are due for a major refresh sometime in the next 2 or 3 years. I think we will see a lighter, faster, nicer Model S and X with 120 kWh pack that charge faster than current Model 3. There's a possibility also for being cheaper.

I can't see a price reduction for the S or X. These are pure luxury cars and so price is not how they are sold. Certainly faster charging will be a big improvement. Even 50% faster charging would be a very noticeable difference. For me, faster charging is not as significant as a longer range. If I can get a 50% improvement in range and a 50% improvement in charge speed (even if it cancels out to be the same time charging) it would greatly improve long trips. Instead of stopping two or three times, I could drive long enough that I stop once and charge while I eat, then am ready to do the other leg of the day's driving like in an ICE car.

The model 3 and Y will be sold based on price. This is where Tesla will need to be highly competitive in the coming years as the other car makers come up with new products and Tesla isn't the only company with decent charging. In five years when competing chargers are equally available as the Superchargers Tesla will have a fight on their hands. With the experience the major car makers have in mass production Tesla will have to out compete the juggernauts as well as other upstarts, some backed by the government such as in China. Everyone pays attention to the rest of the western car industry, but China and even India are building what will become massive auto industries and will play large parts in the development of battery electric vehicles.

 

[HugoBoss]

I noticed you're from Europe. From my experience driving in Western Europe, a smaller more responsive car for narrower roads and tiny parking garages would be preferable. Any European Model X want to speak about how it is to drive such a wide car in europe? Here is a cool video/quasi advertisement for the Model 3 in Europe (note it starts with Model S and X owners talking about their cars):

I was in Portugal this summer, while in Lisbon I saw a few X and S... They look huge over there in Their small roads with small cars. I couldn't imagine driving my X there. We went to places where we would definitely not be able to get through and end up blocking traffic.

So ya..... Small European roads? two kids? No plans for more? Definitely M3

 

[ValleyGeek]

I've had my X 75D for exactly one-year (as of next week anyway) and I have a friend who got an M3D Long Range about a month ago. I definitely think that the M3 is a more practical vehicle and is far superior in regard to it's range, charge speed, energy consumption, ability to park in tight spaces, and general UI technology (my MCU is extremely laggy compared to his). I believe it's also going to be a focus for Tesla over the next year or so and the S/X's are going to get a bit neglected simply due to the numbers of 3's they are going to have to support. The 3 also feels much more sporty than my X, granted I have the smallest battery for my model release. Him and I went on a tandem day trip where we each drove our own Tesla and on the way home I had to take a shorter, less interesting route because I didn't have the range without throwing in an additional hour+ stop to charge (it was getting late and there weren't any superchargers on the route).

All of that being said, each time I get in his M3 there are many factors that make me appreciate my X and reaffirm to me that I made the right decision for me. I love how roomy the X is inside, the giant front windshield, the doors auto opening, how much cargo room I have in the back (5 seater), and a number of the little perks of the more high-end vehicle (controllable air suspension to name one off hand). I also have five decent sized adults in my car on a fairly regular basis and I don't think they could all fit in the M3.

I too believe that there will be a pretty significant refresh of the S/X once the M3 production normalizes and that now is a tough time to make a decision. Teslas are very much like smartphones or computers: you have to bite the bullet at some point and know that sometimes you win and have a good run before a decent refresh and sometimes the new shiny feature will come out within 6 months on the new models that you won't have on yours. For me, it made the most sense to have the versatile utility of the X over a smaller car and I'm still happy with my decision. If you, and your family, are happy with the size/features of the M3 then I think it is a great option and you can always consider "growing" into an X in the future if able.

I wish you the best of luck with making a decision and don't believe you will be truly unhappy with either option.

 

[Terthen]

Hi,

I'm currently considering between buying a Model 3 or a Model X. I know they're different vehicles (with different costs) and I know the "right" decision would be to have the two. Unfortunately, that is not a option for me and I'm torn between the two for different reasons.

Model X with a 6 or 7 seat would be the adequate choice for me as I have 2 kids and the extra seats would be really helpful, but when I look at the current versions of Model X I can't help to note that they're still, a somewhat, dated "version" in the "technology level line" of Tesla.

Model 3, being the newest model, as several hardware improvements that I'm sure will appear in Model S and X as soon as Tesla have the time to take theirs eyes from Model 3 (and probably Model Y).

I'm talking about:

• 2170 cell batteries capable of a denser energy pack :
  • This would probably be able to create a version of the Model X with a 120 kWh pack and 350 miles of range probably with the same weight and cost as the current 100 kWh pack;
    
  • As the 2170 cells are produced in progressive greater quantities, their cost efficiency continue to improve. These cells produced in enough quantities for all Model 3, S, X (and Y) production will make them very cheap due to economies of scale. As such, it would be also possible to have a 100 kWh pack for the same price as the current 75 kWh pack;
  • We also know that these cells accept more energy per unit of time as we already see it with Model 3 faster charge rates. With a 120 kWh pack it would probably even charge at a higher rate because of the bigger pack (the bigger the pack the higher charge power);
  • This will also be aligned with the new Supercharger 3.0 version due probably next year;
• Permanent magnet motors:
  • Model S and X will probably use one (or two) PMM in the rear and an AC motor in the front similar with Model 3, for better efficiency at low and high speed, faster acceleration and enhanced cornering;
• Interior Refresh:
  • Model 3 interior clearly is set to define the next-gen style for Tesla. It's just a question of time for Model S and X to change for a similar interior (which I personally like and prefer);
• Better Electronics (controller / MCU / AP hardware):
  • Model 3 electronics are a "next-gen" version (see Munro analysis) that are much more simpler, efficient, faster and with better quality than the electronics currently present in Model S and X (which are still from 2012). I'm sure that this will migrate to Model S and X sometime in the future too;

For these reasons I think Model S and X are due for a major refresh sometime in the next 2 or 3 years. I think we will see a lighter, faster, nicer Model S and X with 120 kWh pack that charge faster than current Model 3. There's a possibility also for being cheaper.

So, knowing this and for a person that usually have a car for around 10 years it's hard for me to go for a Model X now. This is the reason that I'm considering going for a Model 3 for the next 3 years until the refresh of the Model X happen.

What do you think ?

I agree with all your thoughts. I did want to add though as an owner of both, I would say the initial wow of the 3 compared to X wears off after a month (both still feel amazing just comparison between the two). The X is still clearly a more luxurious car with extra tech like powered doors throughout the car, self presenting doors, hepa filter, etc. Despite loving the totally modern feel of the 3, I do prefer the extra screen on the X. The v9 of the software did really help make the old X feel on par with ththe 3 though in terms of UI... i really appreciated that!

So the X still has a lot going for it, but i think going for the 3 now and the X after the refresh would be the way to go. You’ll love the 3, but there will definitely be new things you get from the X when you upgrade that’ll you’ll be excited about. As another strategy if you need the extra room with 2 kids, a friend of mine is leasing an X until the refresh and planning to buy one then.

 

[blake6551]

I own and X and 3 and my father has an S. After having the 3 for a month, I would not buy an S or X right now. My wife and I are both choosing the 3 nearly everytime over the X.

The 3 is better in every way, except for the auto-opening doors and the giant windshield. The interior is so far ahead of the X/S that getting in either one now makes me feel like I'm stepping back in time. The screen and UI is much more responsive, the material quality is better, its more comfortable and feels like a "regular car" in all the good ways (usable cupholders, center console, normal visors, great armrests and door pockets, no squeaks/rattles). It's easier to park, autopilot is better, the car tracks dead straight on the highway etc.

None of this was apparent to me just looking in the "showroom" but after living with them side-by-side, I can't unsee it!

 

[gangzoom]

So ya..... Small European roads? two kids? No plans for more? Definitely M3

I see this comment ALOT, people who have a licence but cannot seem to judge road width.

I live in the UK, have done 26K in the X. I drive through a 7ft width restriction daily, park in side roads/multi stories with no issues.

At work I park next to two Q7s and a XC90, so these SUVs are pretty popular in Europe. On narrower country roads I PERFER to drive our X compared to my wifes Lexus saloon. In the X I can postion the car so much easier.

Am so unbothered by the size of the X I even enjoy the odd 'play' with things like BMW M3s I come across on country roads.

So for people who 'worry' about the size of the X, all I can say is go and do something to improve your spacial awareness, if you really cannot drive a X on European roads due to worries about size maybe you shoudlnt be driving .

*We are going to get a 3 anyways to replace my wifes Lexus. But there is no way I would trade the utility of the X for a 3. Try shifting this lot in a 3, and still leave room for the toddler in the 2nd row!!

 

[jtdiddy]

The auto opening/closing doors on the X is a game changer for me. It's just an awesome high luxury feature the other cars dont have.

I love the S and 3 but everytime my FWD opens, I remember why the X is my favorite

 

[gangzoom]

when I look at the current versions of Model X I can't help to note that they're still, a somewhat, dated "version" in the "technology level line" of Tesla.

I would be very careful not to get trapped in the always waiting for the next big thing which is ALWAYS coming down the line in the world of tech.

Sit in any Tesla and go back to any combustion car and your see just how far ahead of the pack even a 2014 Model S is!!

If your in the UK I would also keep an eye on price, the base price of the X when we ordered in 2016 was £61k, if your looking now I don't need to tell you how prices have crept up. With Brexit coming I can only see the £ heading one way, quite simply it'll mean everything is going to be more expensive. 10% price increase on milk will be going from £1 to £1.10, but on a £70k X will be £7k increase!!! Don't assume the X will get cheaper, used prices are holding very strong too.

The AWD Model 3 is going to be nearly £50k UK price, given it has no powered doors, no massive front windscreen, no third row, I personally am finding it very hard to justify the cost. Our 6 seater X was barely any more expensive than a same spec Q7 - £2k more but a AWD 3 is ALOT more expensive than a 340i which you can get a 20% discount on list price with little effort, £50k is a huge amount to drop on a small saloon.

 

[Uncle Paul]

Agree that Model 3 is the Next Generation of Tesla, but find it highly doubtful that Tesla would revamp the Model X at this time.

Going to the taller batteries would nessisitate reworking the entire car to fit in the taller cells. The current motors are working well, and changing out to a different type would provide few benefits.

The company is currently maxed out for production, and they are having steady demand for the current S and X.

While Tesla has a policy of continuing improvement, I would not expect the S or X to experience major changes until the Model 3 has their volume ramped up, the Model Y SUV is produced, the Semi is on the road. the New Roadster is rolled out amd the Pickup is released.

They simply have too much on their plate to revamp model lines that still have great demand as is.

Maybe you are over thinking this thing.

 

[Tam]

I would buy and "like" a Model 3 if I can't afford Model X.

"Like" because I can't complain when it's 1/2 price lower than Model X.

Model 3 single horizontal 15" screen is too small, not as user flexible, not as informative for my taste. Tesla might physically downgrade future Model X into Model 3's screen option so there is a risk of losing your current vertical 17" display if you wait for it.

Model 3 screen setup creates a lot more outside reflections than Model X vertical setup does because of their angles (X's display is more laying down & tilted.)

People might think being like Model 3 is more modern but as Model X changed its interface to harmonize with Model 3, it loses the freedom of the configurable user interface to position an app in any bottom, top, or fullscreen windows if they want.

That's expected for Model 3 because it is about economy but I hope Tesla will restore the mix-and-match user interface again for Model X.

As others have stated above, I also love the Falcon Wing Doors. I wish front doors do the same too.

In the meantime, I love the automatic driver door that opens when I approach it and closes when I press on the brake to start the X or when I step away from it.

I am so spoiled and as usual, I would have my hands full and my Model X would open the driver door for me but that's not the case if it's a Model 3.

Of course, there's a lot more cargo space in the X as well.