We get power from an ancient small rusty box that's up a pole ... goodness knows how it supplies power to 4 homes and a village hall. If anybody else applies to have an EV point installed it's going to have to go! In our own case the cables are the least of it!
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Nightmare! (Supercharger queues)
- Thread starter Cilonen
- Start date
We get power from an ancient small rusty box that's up a pole ... goodness knows how it supplies power to 4 homes and a village hall. If anybody else applies to have an EV point installed it's going to have to go! In our own case the cables are the least of it!
Jason71
Well-Known Member
Wow that's impressive but cool as that would be sadly I suspect one of the cables is an input and the power is actually originally coming from somewhere else
Our "box up a pole" is connected directly to an 11kV branch distribution supply that comes up the valley so there is potentially lots of power available ... the transformer will be the limit.Wow that's impressive but cool as that would be sadly I suspect one of the cables is an input and the power is actually originally coming from somewhere else
When everyone has EVs and everyone has Heat Pumps, we'll potentially need a wholesale review of things like load calculations as both are not really short term things - you'll have your EV charging for hours at a time, and heat pump likewise (maybe different times of the day) so baseload could be quite a bit higher
Jason71
Well-Known Member
Mr H
Active Member
I need a lie down….As I said: "per week". That was based on 35K miles p.a. and was typically 2x per week, and 16 supercharges per year. Any average-ratio of the two needs to take into account the battery size (smaller = more road-trip charges) and the number of out-of-range journeys that the car makes - for a "city car" that might be zero, for a travelling-salesman quite possible "Lots".
I seriously doubt that you can actually achieve that average in practice, you also have turning-off-the-highway and in some cases going-out-of-way to get there (as you do with Supercharger, but not with home charging, and not with e.g. Supermarket charging which are plug-in and walk-away). I agree that pay-at-pump is faster, but I don't often see people actually using that ... maybe they need some ciggies ...
Plus a bit more if the forecourt is not right-next-to-the-route; some people are probably going out of their way to buy cheaper, and for me the Esso garage on my direct route to anywhere closed and I had to take a short detour for my regular local Diesel fillup. Thankfully I haven't had to bother with that, nor the smelly forecourt, for half a dozen years
I'm the perennial optimist but ...
My starting point for this is that we have dug up the roads for Water, Sewage, Phone, Cable, Fibre ... against that those services would have been easy to sell to everyone-in-the-street, whereas car charging might take someone 10-20 years before their ICE is swapped for an EV, so not everyone is a buyer on day one.
Of the street parkers some percentage will be "city cars", and maybe they would choose to charge at e.g. supermarket once a week instead of on the street. Some others will be able to charge at work (and likely that day-time charging will become the cheapest option, at least during summer "When sun shines and wind blows")
I wonder how many people (who park in the road) will use street-charging? Certainly those commuting to work (unless they can charge at work), and travelling-business-folk ... but for city-car folk they may charge at Supermarket.
Anyway Elon tells me that Tesla self-driving ride-hail cars will be along shortly so no need for a car, road parking, or self-charging ... I'll get my coat !!
I think time-of-use rates will solve that. My Tesla starts charging at Off Peak - bang on. It might only going to be adding a couple of percent ('coz parasitic use has fallen below the threshold), but its going to do it right at the start of Off Peak. Plenty of opportunity for software to "negotiate" a suitable time, based on range-needed and so on. Could also charge at lower AMPs if the rest of the housing estate has a lot of charging to do that night ...
... but, yeah, quite a lot of "collaboration" required by the software to achieve that.
I wonder how Norway has got on? They have unlimited hydro, but their infrastructure must have been like ours and based on each house using a kettle at different times?
I'm a heavy overnight consumer in the Winter (fill car and PowerWall), but in Summer I get 1,000 miles a month into the cars off the roof. Clearly I'm an outlier - more PV than most, and also I work from home and car is parked at home during the day and available for charging.
We have EV charging at work (for about 1/3rd of the car park) and are talking of covering the roof in PV (could/should have done it sooner, delayed because we decided that if doing PV we should also use the opportunity (scaffolding etc.) to take the whole roof off and improve the insulation ... but that cost was prohibitive. We are now at the point of "Just do the PV".
France has mandated all public car parks to be covered with PV (the bigger car parks have only around 2 years to comply ...)
Car Parks would be my preference to deal with non-road-trip top-ups. Motorway service stations have plenty of parking. Existing Forecourts definitely not, but in combination with Supermarkets I think we'd be OK in towns? Supermarkets are incentivised as it will bring them footfall. Waitrose near me has recently been significant "revamped" for the entrance / exit (which was ridiculously tight), and having been pleased they did that it then became apparently that had included infrastructure for Shell Re-charge chargers, of which they have a dozen or so (a few of which are 350kW ... that's going to be a very short shop!)
I'm a software engineer. I don't understand why the 3rd party have such lousy maintenance. The statistics for "No car has charged at THIS stall for XX hours" should be enough to trigger an alert that it might be bust, rather than expecting a user to report it. Add to that if a car plugs in and then fails to charge which is be an even more useful data point in conjunction with "No car charged in XX hours"
Same with a central heating thermostat. It comes on and "demands heat" ... what if the temperature carries on falling? What does it do? It just carries on "demanding heat". Useless. What should it do? Send me an email saying "Your boiler isn't working" ... I don't know if even a fancy Nest thermostat does that?
There is a cost to not doing this - the cost of cleaning up the environment of the extra emissions from any delay. Never known Government to spend money now to avoid having to spend more money later ... but they could.
Norway has got there in about that time. When they started there were only two choices: a Model-S at £100K+ or a Nissan Leaf ...
... at least we are starting with a decent range of choices. I'm seeing large numbers of EV green-flash number-plates - more than I think I would have expected; way more of my mates are in the real-soon-now camp, whereas before they were envious on the one hand but resistant on the other. More the fool them, I've had loads of benefit from being an early-adopter - not least the referral swag from Tesla
I've used Superchargers (according to TeslaFi) 134 times. I've queued once, and that was for 5 minutes. That of course disguises the problem of increasing EVs if the rollout of Chargers doesn't keep pace ... and also the pinch-point of holiday traffic (which is probably always going to exceed capacity, and given charging times of 20 minutes is far worse in EV than ICE)
Ultimately when left to market forces they'll only install where there's a ROI or if the government funds the shortfall for it to make sense. I don't see digging up our paths and putting in chargers on the off chance some will use them has any real business case. As you say even if they have an electric car they might get free electric from work so just charge it there.
This will no doubt help, not sure if it'll be enough on it's own personally. Complex to pull off though.
Also work from home a lot but as I plan to move again in a few years, hopefully to the forever house there's no sense doing PV yet but I'd desperately love to.
Hello Software Engineer friend, I'm a Solutions Architect
I think the answer to this one is simple. They are getting some incentive to install the charger that their ROI probably occurs by the the time the charger is put in or very quickly afterwards. Then the charger breaks, they look at the stats and see it doesn't have much footfall or the cost to repair it might be quite high and it's just not worth it. They've made their ROI on it, they can just let it rot now.
I'd like to say I'm a realist. I don't have faith mankind will work / solve this problem before it's a major problem, we'll only work on it after the issues have occured. Electric cars are just one of the steps we maybe need to take but not the only one. We need to stop traveling as much, flights in particular but who's giving up their holidays abroad? Stopping eating meat again could help a lot but other than some veggies, there's plenty who want to save the environment but will continue to happily eat a burger
Could go on but it boils down to we want to save the planet but only if it doesn't incovinence us or it's cheaper. Back to cars how many brought them because it helps the environment vs how many brought them because they were cheaper to run. If they continue to be more expensive for instance, does that change peoples views on this. Of course it's going to be forced on people so no choice but I suspect a lot got them because it's cheaper, less BiK, etc and nothing to do with saving the environment.
The cars are for sure coming, just need the charging infrastructure to also come at the same pace. There's a chart I saw somewhere that shows Telsa's sales vs chargers and they aren't keeping up. Early days they had a much better ratio of superchargers vs cars but it's dropping. Add in that they are opening up the network, some cars go in forwards so end us using two bays because the cable a reversed in Tesla needs is no longer there and it's not great.
Cannot ignore the stock price drop of Tesla, they'll be looking to cut some corners and maybe Supercharger investment is an easy one to back off from. Just say they did their bit and now it's up to the third party charger networks.
Sean.
Active Member
I did a single phase to 3-phase upgrade back in 2013 and part of the cost from the DNO was a pro-rata uplift to upgrade the transformer on a pole. Wasn't cheap at the time, but has been very helpful and I dare say if I had done it now would be double the cost.
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
We have done. Can't think of a single person I know who has ... "No raindrop thought it caused the flood" seems to apply to all of them. We do go to near continent - HS1/TGV goes from London direct to bottom of the three valleys, so skiing's OK ... Seychelles is a bit more of a problem! And wife runs with some hunk pointing out all the sites in Croatia ... courtesy of a running track subscription and screen
The airlines switching to bio-fuel would help, but not one of them wants to be first.
Vegan would definitely help, but just cutting down on meat isn't hard. One meat-free meal a week, or eat more Chicken and less Beef, are all good for the planet - and the wallet.
Personally we did "Eat less beef/meat" and I only then ate beef as a treat when we went out. That was some years ago ... once I'd got used to that I stopped hankering after beef, and now when we go out I look at the Vegetarian / Vegan dishes on the menu first because I like the fact that they are different / interesting.
But it was hard to get from A-to-B because there wasn't necessarily one en route. Back then rarely saw another car charging, so whilst the ratio has reduced back then there was very little occupancy, so plenty of slack available. But, yeah, we need more and quickly (and Tesla has never fulfilled much of its "coming soon" pins on the map)
Sounds like your doing more than most which is good but it does need the majority to join in. I'm not quite ready to go as far as you but did sell my car with a 6.6 litre V12 a year or so ago so I'm heading in the right direction 
I'm not sure Tesla is in such a great financial position at the moment. Even if you ignore the massive stock price drop, the issues that come from Elon selling Tesla to purchase Twitter. They don't seem to have a massive backlog of orders.
My wife could have got a Model Y from stock in December but I got turned her to a Model 3 Performance just so I can get my speed kicks as I sold my fast car to slow down a bit in life. Compared to other makes, this isn't normal at the moment.
The Model S and X just came back to Europe and rather than a massive backlog of orders to forfill they apparently had ones in stock which meant they shipped more than they managed to get sell in pre-orders over the couple of years they haven't been sold in Europe.
They even reported in their stats they built more cars than they sold. Basically at the moment it seems like they are no longer supply limited but starting to be demand limited.
On the other hand a lot of cars I might fancy from other companies have a 1+ year wait. Not only that but you have to accept some downgrade in specs due to part shortages and don't even seem to get discount from it. Why? Because they can sell em anyway.
So not expecting SC site growth to be all that fast basically. They are going to need to be careful with their cashflow.
I'm not sure Tesla is in such a great financial position at the moment. Even if you ignore the massive stock price drop, the issues that come from Elon selling Tesla to purchase Twitter. They don't seem to have a massive backlog of orders.
My wife could have got a Model Y from stock in December but I got turned her to a Model 3 Performance just so I can get my speed kicks as I sold my fast car to slow down a bit in life. Compared to other makes, this isn't normal at the moment.
The Model S and X just came back to Europe and rather than a massive backlog of orders to forfill they apparently had ones in stock which meant they shipped more than they managed to get sell in pre-orders over the couple of years they haven't been sold in Europe.
They even reported in their stats they built more cars than they sold. Basically at the moment it seems like they are no longer supply limited but starting to be demand limited.
On the other hand a lot of cars I might fancy from other companies have a 1+ year wait. Not only that but you have to accept some downgrade in specs due to part shortages and don't even seem to get discount from it. Why? Because they can sell em anyway.
So not expecting SC site growth to be all that fast basically. They are going to need to be careful with their cashflow.
I think we're screwed TBF. There's a massive shortage of chargers in Leicester. I counted 7 waiting in Fosse park super charger and all the pod points in use too.
The fast chargers near me are always in use too.
With the amount of EVs being sold right now public charging is only going to get worse.
I'm lucky I publicly charge a few times a year.
The fast chargers near me are always in use too.
With the amount of EVs being sold right now public charging is only going to get worse.
I'm lucky I publicly charge a few times a year.
Jason71
Well-Known Member
Superchargers are their main USP at this point. They invested in the network when they were in a much worse position than they are today so I can't see them stopping. There are only so many good locations for chargers if they have any sense they will continue to grab as many as they can while they can.
I wonder if the slowdown and queues at Christmas will make them slow their roll on opening up to other makes in the UK. We do seem to be in a particularly bad place right now where exclusive access to the SuC may be more closely linked to sales than it would be in other countries.
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
Indeed. Although they increased sales (i.e. production capacity etc.) by 40% (2022 vs 2021) [VW EV growth a shade under 24%]
Price Fall on Teslas must come as they keep on ramping on production / building more factories ... so that must be in their game plan ... I'm not sure it matters : produce more, improve efficiency / economies-of-scale / produce-nearer-to-market,. A smaller margin on a 40% sales increase is still a large sum.
Unhappy customers who bought at top-of-the-market price maybe ... there have been plenty of angry demonstrations outside Tesla stores in China ...
Here's the thing. They talk about Tesla being here to push sustainable transport and wanting to get the price of their cars down yet they were happy to sit on one of the biggest mass market car margins in current years. They could have lowered their prices a long time ago but when demand outstrips supply, why bother. So it's not so much about doing the "good" thing for humanity. It's just a normal business that will make as much margin as it can when it can.
The price drop is simply because supply is starting to outstrip demand now. So they need to lower prices to try and shift stock. I don't put this down to an issue with Tesla but more a sign of the current economic climate.
I do. Demand isn't just based on price/the economic climate. Let's face reality here, the vast majority of Tesla buyers are quite comfortable. The a major part of the problem is sentiment and the newspaper headlines of people waiting many hours to charge their vehicles over the Christmas break will effect the sentiment of future buyers, especially as it's almost certainly going to get worse, not better. I mean the media shits on EV's/Tesla enough with build quality/range/battery nonsense but now there's a real tangible target in that the there is solid proof the infrastructure is not up to the job.
Mr H
Active Member
That's an issue for sure but not sure enough to dent demand as much as it has. Tesla has opened more factories and is continuing to increase supply and the economic outlook will have an impact on all. There's only so many comfortable people who also want a Tesla that you can sell to. The bulk of the population cannot afford a Tesla.
Of those that can afford a Tesla. They have maybe higher mortgage payments to think about, increased financing rates, tax rises, inflation, job security. If you don't need a new car, it maybe isn't the best time for some comfortable people to buy.
The bulk of the population do not buy new cars in general, there's what 70M people now in this country and only 1.6m new cars a year. Tesla buyers are people that are currently/previously buy new Audi/BMW/Mercedes/ect, for which Tesla's sales don't even get close to reaching. Audi/BMW/Merc are outselling Tesla by a long shot but as Tesla only sells two models, it looks like Tesla is doing great. There are plenty of people able to afford an EV, even in this economy.
If I wasn't already a two Tesla household, I wouldn't even consider buying a Tesla at the moment - not because of the price but because the supercharger network hasn't got the capacity to support Tesla's (and now other evs using the network). Same goes for other EV's for the time being unless there's a serious pace change of ultra rapid charger installation. Which gets us to one of Tesla's bigger mistakes which is opening up the network to non Teslas, that's another big dent in the sentiment part of Tesla demand. One of the bigger selling points removed at the most of Tesla owners.
WannabeOwner
Well-Known Member
There is that. But it would also have pushed the WAIT out to a year or two, as has happened with other marques. That increases risk of keeping price-at-order (Tesla have never, that I can remember, increased price post-sale, whereas they have reduced if prices fall), and personally I can't see why any Marque wants a multi-year wait for a car if they could instead sell all-they-can-make at a higher price. But they would, then, have to put up with annoying customers when they drop the price later on. Tesla need profit to build factories to make more cars. Established marques already have factories.
I don't see this being incompatible with "Tesla being here to push sustainable transport". They are selling all they can make, building factories increased production 40% last year, if they weren't here we'd be stuck with legacy auto and oil saying "It can't be done"
Inevitably price will come down over time both when supply matches demand and also as batteries become cheaper / lighter
Don't forget Tesla increased all their prices to reduce demand around May last year because the factories could not keep up and wait times were "too long". Now the production is better than ever they are dropping the price. Tesla still ramping up Berlin factory and planning yet another factory.
