Non-owner First Production window just got pushed back

[timk225]

Maybe if Tesla could meet us halfway, like require that we buy the big battery but not force the premium interior crap on us, then it wouldn't be so bad. But as it stands now, it looks like my $36,000 3 would have to be a $50,000 3 if I want it this year. I'm not taking the tax credit into consideration, that wouldn't come back to me until next spring anyway.

 

[AlanSqB]

Are you "Bolting" now? I drove one and they quoted $1,300 for lifetime lube! (coolant change at 150,000 miles is the only service required) $1,200 for "theft" insurance rider and $400 to make the third brake light blink! Dealer was confused between Volt & Bolt. Sales guy knew nothing about the Bolt. Showed me a screen that showed when the "gas motor" was running. Hold your nose and call them on their BS. They did not even show the Federal $7,500 rebate or the WA state $2,600 sales tax credit on the vehicle cost paperwork.

I have to admit the Honda dealer wasn’t super well informed on the car but they showed me the very comprehensive training info they were given and that they were in the process of getting “certified “. They were also pretty excited about it in general. They did deliver with a dead battery because their EVSE was not installed yet.

Honestly I’ve found that I know more about the Tesla’s than the people staffing the galleries and the OA’s so this isn’t really an ICE dealer only thing.

I will “Bolt” right back in a year or two for a Model S refresh or a higher spec (air susp) version of the 3. I just suddenly realized this weekend I have lost the thrill of the “early adopter” and just had a bunch of worries. YMMV.

 

[AlanSqB]

This latest delay in getting my 3 (non owner first day in line to reserve) has me once again considering getting rid of my reservation and getting a used S. But only certain colors, definitely not black, and under $50K. I never did like the single screen in the 3 anyhow.

The death of my reservation was this “death of a thousand cuts.” I think I just hit my limit a few days earlier than many. I considered a CPO but I needed a car now and I think the CPO prices are in for a nice drop once Model 3 production finally ramps. If you can wait a bit I bet there will be some excellent deals on some great cars.

 

[N5329K]

Question for everyone- out of curiosity, do you think this is the last major timeline shift we will see for delivery estimations?

No. It's Tesla admitting that they can't really afford to build and sell base model cars yet. Instead, they are retreating to the part of the market they know (and knows them) and offers bigger margins.
Robin

 

[206er]

No. It's Tesla admitting that they can't really afford to build and sell base model cars yet. Instead, they are retreating to the part of the market they know (and knows them) and offers bigger margins.
Robin

I’m finally accepting that Teslas are still just toys for rich people, and not yet feasible transportation options for the mass market. Guess I shouldn’t accept anything less from a company run by an Ayn Rand fan.

Back to Acura I probably go...

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Another data point:

Non-owner, online 3/31 (before the reveal, about 2 minutes after online opened).
First Production Jan - Mar 2018.
(Selected) Standard Battery Early 2018.
Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive Oct - Dec 2018

OK, so now
First Production Apr - Jun 2018.
(Selected) Standard Battery Late 2018.
Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive Late 2018

Account is not currently accessible. Maybe they've taken it down for upgrades to the cancellation process.

Oh well. I don't need my reservation fee back (I considered it lost as soon as I made the reservation).

 

[CTreast]

Just checked my own page. They moved me back as well.

(Selected) First Production Mar- May 2018.
Standard Battery Late 2018.
Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive Late 2018

I'm still in no hurry but 2 years w/ the limitations of my leaf is starting to wear on me. My life's radius is so tiny

 

[EfficientWatts]

TX Houston, Non-Owner, Waited in line 3/31 (got it in the morning)

First Production
310 mile range, Rear Wheel Drive and premium upgrades
$49,000
Mar - May 2018

Standard Battery
220 mile range with Rear Wheel Drive
$35,000
Late 2018

Dual Motor All-Wheel Drive
Choice of 220 or 310 mile range
Late 2018

I am starting to think about first production (or more specifically RWD). Was going to wait for AWD but it's all going to come down to the tax credit. I'm ok with only getting 1/2 but that's kind of pushing it and if I get only 1/4 that might tip things in favor of getting it sooner.

 

[Pinot.Noir]

Didn't your delivery estimate change from 4 weeks to 6 weeks?

It says 3 to 6 weeks for delivery. I was just pointing out that it still says I can configure right away.

 

[gekcut]

I posted in another thread but for those cancelling, we cancelled one of our reservations on 1/9 and received the check on 1/20.

Our other reservation is a for a non owner, 5th in line at an East Coast store on Day 1. It has been pushed back repeatedly from the fall of 2017 to now late 2018. If it becomes clear we will not get the full rebate, we will cancel. If we will, then we may configure if the problems with the Model 3 have been sorted for the most part. We are a 6 hour plus round trip from the nearest service center and can't be making multiple trips for a variety of problems.

 

[bthienthai]

Would a $3750 half-rebate do it? Because that's what it is looking like the first SRs will get. That's above the $30K mark you were would have been expecting but still below $35K including state taxes. EDIT: Wait, you're CA so you'll still be around the $30K mark.

I don't know. I don't mind the waiting because I still love my Mercedes C300. But losing the rebate makes a big difference. I don't need a new car because mine is only 3 years old. But if I can get 10k off of it, then it's an incentive. Without that, I can buy it any time after my current car gets old. And the way they arrange everyone in the queue is kind of strange. If the standard battery becomes available, why is someone put in late 2018 and others are put in early 2019?

 

[EVNow]

When the first SRs come out, employees and current Tesla owners waiting for SR will still get to order first. I don't think non-owners ordering a SR will see any tax credit.

 

[N5329K]

When the first SRs come out, employees and current Tesla owners waiting for SR will still get to order first. I don't think non-owners ordering a SR will see any tax credit.

Have to agree.
Robin

 

[ℬête Noire]

When the first SRs come out, employees and current Tesla owners waiting for SR will still get to order first. I don't think non-owners ordering a SR will see any tax credit.

If they are hitting production stride that might not be entirely true. If they hit 200K mark during Q2 2018 then there is still some rebate in effect until Sept 30th, 2019. Oct 1, 2018 until Mar 31, 2019 it is $3725 and after that $1875 until the end of September. Even if they are still at only 5K/week production for that full year that's 350K vehicles. That's > 250,000 M3 (assuming 100K of S + X). That'll be a huge chunk of the backlog, certainly enough for day 1 reservations.

Taking nearly $2000 off a $35,000 price is still helpful (and certain States can bring it down further).

 

[thebigbobowski]

When the first SRs come out, employees and current Tesla owners waiting for SR will still get to order first. I don't think non-owners ordering a SR will see any tax credit.

It's also good to keep in mind that they have been behind every step of the way, so who knows if they will actually release the SR in 2018 at all. I do think early non-owner reservation holders will see at least the $1,875, and probably some will see $3,750. But with the track record, I think it's best to plan pessimistically.

 

[EVNow]

Oct 1, 2018 until Mar 31, 2019 it is $3725 and after that $1875 until the end of September.

I didn't realize each phase out step is 2 quarters - thought it was one.

Yes, non-owner SR buyers will likely get some credit. Like that $1.5 a week tax cut Paul Ryan tweeted (and deleted).

 

[JBare]

Unlike SpaceX's philosophy of under-promising, over-delivery (50% chance the rocket was going to blow up on lift-off) Tesla seems to over promise again and again which I attribute it to being a public company. I get a kick out of reading the comments over at seeking alpha from the people still believe in these timelines. Hearing about the Q4 numbers a few weeks ago led me to the opinion of at best 80K model 3's this year.

I was understandably upset last night but after sleeping on it I realize it is what it is. I was happy to hear they will open up Canadian deliveries and am hoping they get that going sooner than later and maybe they'll stretch out that 200Kth delivery until July 4th so, allowing a lot of new owners to get that full tax credit for the remainder of 2018.

I'll keep my East-Coast, Non-Owning, Line-waiting reservation until the Q2 numbers come out, when we actually know what will happen with the tax credit. If you need a car in the next few months then I totally get cancelling (trust me I'm not thrilled with continuing my 80 mile r/t commute in my '06 F150 with 160K miles getting at best 13 mph) but if not maybe sleep on it a few days and then reevaluate. You've waited nearly 2 years already, if they said 2019 all along would you still be upset?

 

[ebwb]

Tip: Buying a Long Range car is the way to jump the queue in front of the thousands who are getting a Standard Range Model 3.

I think the emphasis on being a "Day 1" reservation holder is overblown; what really will matter is whether you go for PUP and/or the Long Range model.

 

[SMAlset]

....If the standard battery becomes available, why is someone put in late 2018 and others are put in early 2019?

We are Calif. owners and our Standard went from mid 2018 ---> early 2019, whereas our AWD actually moved only slightly back from Aug-Oct 2018 --> Late 2018. I thought that was strange. Now when we put our reservation in we did select the First Production choice seing as we don't know anything about the other options yet. I'm thinking being an owner, but a late reservation one, that there are a ton of employee/owner early reservations ahead of us for the Standard model if we decide to go that route. But just my guess.

 

[atlas310]

We are Calif. owners and our Standard went from mid 2018 ---> early 2019, whereas our AWD actually moved only slightly back from Aug-Oct 2018 --> Late 2018. I thought that was strange. Now when we put our reservation in we did select the First Production choice seing as we don't know anything about the other options yet. I'm thinking being an owner, but a late reservation one, that there are a ton of employee/owner early reservations ahead of us for the Standard model if we decide to go that route. But just my guess.

I'm a non California owner and my Standard went from early 2018 to late 2018. My AWD is still late 2018.