Norcal heat wave

[holeydonut]

Ummm... That's 51.1GigaWatts, aka 51,100MW. (See your posted chart for units)

The current VPP has been in the 20+MW range when I have looked. Better than nothing, but a small fraction of the total demand/load.

All the best,

BG

Lol my brain didn't comprehend the GW on my phone... So how screwed is the grid going to be today?

 

[BGbreeder]

No worries. I have typos all the time.

Personally, I expect more local outages as the heat and the high loads cause marginal equipment to fail. PG&E seems to underestimate this one, but to be honest, I don't know what fraction could be found in advance and replaced. The big one is where total demand ends up, and I have zero insights on that one.

All the best,

BG

 

[Redhill_qik]

Maybe that is why my batteries didn't fully charge and stopped charging at 4PM sending excess solar to grid. "They" controlled it.

I was looking back at my logged data and the first two events on 8/17 and 8/31 charging continue from 4:00-6:00pm, but on 9/1 and the later events Powerwall charging stopped at 4:00pm. There was some very small numbers on 9/1 from 4:00-4:20pm with up to 10 kW showing up which may be a system glitch in the fleet data or maybe a few Powerwalls didn't get the command to stop charging and continued to charge from solar.

Somebody changed the behavior here, but why that was changed I don't know. Maybe someone decided the buy/sell behavior for Peak should be given a higher priority over continued Powerwall charging from solar.

Edit: Looking at the CAISO demand forecast for today the Peak demand is expected to be from 3:35-5:30pm with demand above 52,000 MW. It is probably better for the system to be using the solar for mitigating the house load and exporting to the grid during this period than to keep charging Powerwalls at below 1MW until 6:00pm when the VPP event will start. It also helps to reduce the amount of Peak imports for anyone that didn't get to 100% on solar.

 

[holeydonut]

No worries. I have typos all the time.

Personally, I expect more local outages as the heat and the high loads cause marginal equipment to fail. PG&E seems to underestimate this one, but to be honest, I don't know what fraction could be found in advance and replaced. The big one is where total demand ends up, and I have zero insights on that one.

All the best,

BG

What happens when net demand exceeds net capacity?

 

[cwied]

What happens when net demand exceeds net capacity?

View attachment 849611

I believe if the actual capacity is reached, the grid will crash due to overload. What this graph shows, however, is "Resource Adequacy Capacity" which is defined in the description as follows:

Resource adequacy (RA) is energy designated by the state to be bid into the market for the reliable operation of the power grid, minus the impacts of outage derates. Any energy needed over that designated amount has to be procured in the real-time market.

To understand what CAISO does as the grid gets close to capacity, here is the definition of the EEA levels. (http://www.caiso.com/Documents/Emergency-Notifications-Fact-Sheet.pdf)

Energy Emergency Alert 1
Real-time analysis shows all resources are in use or committed for use, and energy deficiencies are expected. Market participants are encouraged to offer supplemental energy and ancillary service bids. Consumers are encouraged to conserve energy.
Energy Emergency Alert 2
ISO requests emergency energy from all resources and has activated its emergency demand response program. Consumers are urged to conserve energy to help preserve grid reliability.
Energy Emergency Alert 3
ISO is unable to meet minimum Contingency Reserve requirements and controlled power curtailments are imminent or in progress according to each utility’s emergency plan. Maximum conservation by consumers requested.

CAISO has already issued an EEA1 notice for 4pm-9pm. Yesterday they got to EEA2. It will be interesting to see if they get to EEA3 today, because I think that means that rolling blackouts are likely.

 

[dailo]

Almost at peak from yesterday, but good thing there is a ton of solar right now. If demand doesn't flatten out as solar goes down I think we might see rolling outages. Every time there is a flex alert someone in my Nextdoor neighborhood blames in on the EVs.

 

[getakey]

Almost at peak from yesterday, but good thing there is a ton of solar right now. If demand doesn't flatten out as solar goes down I think we might see rolling outages. Every time there is a flex alert someone in my Nextdoor neighborhood blames in on the EVs.

I see that all the time on Nextdoor too. I always tell them that no one charges an EV during Peak rates. I'm not sure they get it. On that subject, we have been EV-less for 2 years but got a new one yesterday. Just finished configuring the charging times

 

[jboy210]

Almost at peak from yesterday, but good thing there is a ton of solar right now. If demand doesn't flatten out as solar goes down I think we might see rolling outages. Every time there is a flex alert someone in my Nextdoor neighborhood blames in on the EVs.

Don't you know if all we go to EVs the world will end.

 

[getakey]

Don't you know if all we go to EVs the world will end.

The world will end in 2035

 

[jboy210]

The world will end in 2035

It already did for us since we dumped our last gas car 3 years ago.

 

[Redhill_qik]

I see that all the time on Nextdoor too. I always tell them that no one charges an EV during Peak rates. I'm not sure they get it. On that subject, we have been EV-less for 2 years but got a new one yesterday. Just finished configuring the charging times

Not entirely accurate, but nobody smart will charge their EV during peak. I recently took delivery of a Model 3 and I was sitting charging at a the free ChargePoint 6.6kW charger which is next to Tesla Superchargers. I saw multiple people drive up and plug into the Supercharger during Peak hours and paying $0.47/kWh to get the much faster 250kW charge.

 

[getakey]

Not entirely accurate, but nobody smart will charge their EV during peak. I recently took delivery of a Model 3 and I was sitting charging at a the free ChargePoint 6.6kW charger which is next to Tesla Superchargers. I saw multiple people drive up and plug into the Supercharger during Peak hours and paying $0.47/kWh to get the much faster 250kW charge.

ok, Agreed if you are in the middle of a trip and have to get somewhere

Is it only $.47/kWh during Peak at those chargers? Thats less than my home Peak rate

 

[jboy210]

Not entirely accurate, but nobody smart will charge their EV during peak. I recently took delivery of a Model 3 and I was sitting charging at a the free ChargePoint 6.6kW charger which is next to Tesla Superchargers. I saw multiple people drive up and plug into the Supercharger during Peak hours and paying $0.47/kWh to get the much faster 250kW charge.

Very true. But at least the rates are higher to disincentives people from doing that. People figure it out and adapt.

Occasionally, I use the 250kW Supercharger down the street from me at 6 AM and do my morning walk in that neighborhood. $6 refills my weekly 1/3 of the battery and I get to walk some hills for 20 minutes or so.

 

[SaveOurPlanet]

Don't you know if all we go to EVs the world will end.

That's close to what Toyota's CEO been telling people in Japan, we will destroy the grid if everyone has an EV and plug in. Recently I've seen interviews on local news with interview with some college professors saying that EV is not sustainable and the grid is just not ready for it and we need ICE. That is why they have ev.energy and evPulse, I think they are sensible ways to start load balancing the grid for EV charging, incentive or not.

 

[power.saver]

Not a good sign of things to come...

Northern CA Region TRANSMISSION EMERGENCY Notice [202202692]

The California ISO hereby issues a Northern CA Region TRANSMISSION EMERGENCY Notice
effective 09/06/2022 13:29 through 09/06/2022 22:00
based on conditions as of 09/06/2022 13:30.

Reason:
Emergency generation needed to relieve overloads in the |Palermo area

Refer to the ISO System Emergency Fact Sheet (http://www.caiso.com/Documents/Emergency-Notifications-Fact-Sheet.pdf)
for additional detail.

 

[Redhill_qik]

ok, Agreed if you are in the middle of a trip and have to get somewhere

Is it only $.47/kWh during Peak at those chargers? Thats less than my home Peak rate

It seemed to me like these were people heading home from work and stopping of to recharge and to swing into Target to pick up a few items.

On the cost, that is what the Telsa screen was telling me for these chargers and that was the price for the whole day. Chargers 10 miles north in south San Jose are listed with the Peak pricing 1-2 cents lower, but with Off-Peak pricing of $0.25-0.27/kWh from 10:00pm until 11:00am(?). I am going to try my local SuperChargers out after we get through this heat wave during what should be Off-Peak hours to see if the station info is correct or not.

 

[sunwarriors]

Not entirely accurate, but nobody smart will charge their EV during peak. I recently took delivery of a Model 3 and I was sitting charging at a the free ChargePoint 6.6kW charger which is next to Tesla Superchargers. I saw multiple people drive up and plug into the Supercharger during Peak hours and paying $0.47/kWh to get the much faster 250kW charge.

I didn't switch to ToU until I was forced to with solar so I used to charge during peak everyday after the commute all night. Course, I was only on L1 back then, but could see people not on ToU due to not being on solar just not switch yet because ToU vs. base rates/tiers was generally a bad deal.

 

[jboy210]

That's close to what Toyota's CEO been telling people in Japan, we will destroy the grid if everyone has an EV and plug in. Recently I've seen interviews on local news with interview with some college professors saying that EV is not sustainable and the grid is just not ready for it and we need ICE. That is why they have ev.energy and evPulse, I think they are sensible ways to start load balancing the grid for EV charging, incentive or not.

I think the Toyota CEO needs to FUD since they don't yet have much of a product line in EVs. Plus, for the home market they were the ones pushing Hydrogen and dumped a ton of money into that.

 

[dailo]

I know VPP probably won't help the grid stay up if it is overloaded with its current enrollment, but assuming it did would be an interesting decision to see do I stay opted in and try to prevent a blackout in my area or just make sure I can sustain a power outage.

 

[jboy210]

It seemed to me like these were people heading home from work and stopping of to recharge and to swing into Target to pick up a few items.

On the cost, that is what the Telsa screen was telling me for these chargers and that was the price for the whole day. Chargers 10 miles north in south San Jose are listed with the Peak pricing 1-2 cents lower, but with Off-Peak pricing of $0.25-0.27/kWh from 10:00pm until 11:00am(?). I am going to try my local SuperChargers out after we get through this heat wave during what should be Off-Peak hours to see if the station info is correct or not.

Those hours and rates seem about right. I got the off-peak rate yesterday at 6:30 AM in San Ramon.