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Not updating = rated miles decreasing?

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What was trying to be explained via a somewhat opaque example is that correlation (or, as in this case, coincidence) is not causation. That is to say, if A happens and then B happens, that does not mean A caused B.

Coincidence is A happening and then B happening.
Correlation is A consistently/repeatedly happening and then B consistently/repeatedly happening.
Causation is A happening which necessarily causes B to happen.

You are at the stage of coincidence, since you have a single data point (your vehicle with one delayed software version update).

It was not statement, just shared the facts as they appeared in my case. No conclusions.

You can not know for sure if A caused B unless you have access to the raw code.

Again I might be very wrong but the case is plausible and easily achievable if intended.

Not accusing Tesla but I had experience with similar "time bombs" in the software /not Tesla software/. The easyest way to motivate user to update is to emulate development of not so big problem.

Anyway, just for the record to summarize - not accusing Tesla for bad practices, might be totally wrong, the battery ages and loosing capacity, it might be just coincidence